Global Crop Monitor
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No. 26: Published October 3rd, 2024
Conditions as of September 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor crops as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of September are favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans, while mixed for wheat. For wheat, winter wheat sowing is off to a mixed start in the Russian Federation and Ukraine, while excess rainfall impacts the spring wheat crop in northern Kazakhstan. For maize, conditions are exceptional in most of the US, while mixed in Europe, Central America, and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. For rice, conditions are generally favourable, however, super typhoon Yagi and heavy monsoon rains have negatively impacted northern countries in Southeast Asia. For soybeans, conditions are exceptional in the US and parts of Europe, while poor in Ukraine, and the Russian Federation. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
ENSO-neutral conditions have been present since June 2024. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 71 to 83 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025. 2024 will rank among the warmest years on record. Above-average temperatures are forecast in many regions during late 2024, continuing the elevated likelihood of adverse heat impacts. For further details, see the Global Climate Influences section.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of September 28th.
In North America, harvesting in the US of spring wheat is wrapping up with above-average yields as winter wheat sowing begins. In Canada, spring wheat harvesting is progressing under variable conditions due to earlier dry weather in the western Prairies. Winter wheat sowing is complete. In Europe, spring wheat harvest in the Russian Federation is ongoing under generally favourable conditions, albeit slowed by abundant rainfall in parts of Siberia. Winter wheat sowing is beginning under mixed conditions as crops are being sown into dry soils. In Ukraine, the sowing of winter wheat is behind schedule due to dry soils in over 50 percent of the country, particularly in the main southern and central growing regions In Central Asia, spring wheat harvesting is nearing completion in Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan under favourable conditions. In northern Kazakhstan, extreme and near-daily precipitation in recent months is expected to reduce the quantity and quality of the wheat harvest. In East Asia, spring wheat harvesting wraps up in China under favourable conditions. In Mongolia, spring wheat harvesting is wrapping up. In Sub-Saharan, socio-economic issues remain a concern in northern Ethiopia. harvesting is beginning in Zimbabwe under favourable conditions. In Zambia, the combination of reduced reservoir levels and subsequent power cuts up to 21 hours per day are impacting irrigation activities, which could result in yield declines. In South Africa, overall conditions remain favourable as widespread precipitation over the winter rainfall region had a positive impact on production. In Lesotho, conditions are favourable. In South America, conditions are mixed in Argentina for winter wheat due to a lack of soil moisture and high temperatures in the northern and western regions, while ample rainfall and good temperatures in the eastern, central, and southern regions have supported crop development. In Brazil, conditions are favourable in the main producing south region, however, hot and dry weather remains a concern in the southeast region. An area decrease is estimated compared to last year. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable with good development. In Chile, conditions are favourable. In Oceania, conditions in Australia for crops to be harvested starting in October are exceptional in New South Wales and Queensland, however, dry conditions have negatively impacted yields in parts of South Australia and Victoria.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of September 28th.
In North America, harvest is beginning in the US under mostly exceptional conditions in the Corn Belt, however, earlier hot and dry weather has reduced yields along the East Coast, which is a more minor growing region. In Canada, conditions are favourable with an expected increase in national average yields compared to last year. In Central America & the Caribbean, improved September rain in Mexico has helped wrap up the sowing of the spring-summer crop (larger season), however, dry conditions at the start of the season remain a concern. Harvesting of Primera season crops is nearing completion in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua under favourable conditions. In Guatemala, conditions are mixed due to erratic rainfall throughout the season as well as high temperatures. In Cuba, harvesting of main-season maize continues under favourable conditions. In Haiti, Été season crops are under favourable conditions. In South America, sowing in Brazil of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is beginning in the main producing South region under favourable conditions. A reduction in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In Europe, harvest is ongoing in the EU as continuing hot and dry weather negatively impacts southern-central and eastern countries, particularly Bulgaria and Romania. In Ukraine, harvest is beginning after hot and dry weather during July and August significantly degraded yields in the southern, central, and eastern regions. In the Russian Federation, harvest is beginning with poor yields expected in the southern region due to earlier hot and dry weather. In Asia, conditions are favourable in China as harvest progresses north for the summer-planted crop. In India, conditions are favourable for the Kharif crop (larger season). In Pakistan, harvesting of the main season crop is beginning. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Sri Lanka, second-season maize is nearing completion. In East Africa, socio-economic concerns remain in northern Ethiopia in the prior conflict-affected areas. In South Sudan, conditions are mixed due to heavy rainfall and flooding received during June to September. In Uganda, harvesting is wrapping up in the unimodal areas of the north under favourable conditions. In bimodal areas of the centre and south, sowing of second-season crops continues under favourable conditions. In Rwanda, sowing of Season A maize is beginning with concern regarding drier than average conditions. In West Africa, harvesting of main season crops is wrapping up in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, and northern Cameroon. In northern Ghana, drought conditions remain a concern. In northern Nigeria, conflict and socio-economic issues remain a challenge.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of September 28th.
In East Asia, harvesting in China of single-season rice continues. Conditions are favourable for the late double-crop. In the Republic of Korea, conditions are favourable as harvest begins. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conditions are favourable as earlier flooding only caused only localized damage. In Japan, conditions are generally favourable as harvest progresses. In South Asia, continued ample rainfall in India during September has supported the progress of transplanting the Kharif crop (larger season). There is an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Pakistan, Kharif (summer) season crops are favourable. In Bangladesh, conditions are generally favourable for the Aman crop (mid-sized season). In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Yala season rice is progressing under favourable conditions. In Nepal, main-season rice is under favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, harvesting of dry-season rice is continuing in Indonesia with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Malaysia & Brunei, harvesting of dry-season rice is ongoing under favourable conditions. In Viet Nam, super Typhoon Yagi made landfall in the north, negatively impacting wet-season rice (summer-autumn and seasonal) yields due to storm damage and flooding. In the south, conditions are favourable for harvesting wet-season rice (summer-autumn) and other wet-season rice (autumn-winter and seasonal). In Thailand, wet-season rice is in the young panicle-forming stage under mixed conditions due to flooding from the monsoon and tropical disturbances. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is harvesting under mixed conditions due to water lodging and pest damage that developed during the growing season. In Myanmar, the sowing of wet-season rice is wrapping up with concern in the Delta region due to flooding from Typhoon Yagi. In Cambodia, there is some concern due to flooding and earlier drought conditions. In the Americas, harvesting is ongoing in the US. In Cuba and Haiti, harvesting of the main-season crop is ongoing under favourable conditions. In Brazil, sowing is ongoing with an estimated increase in total sown area compared to last season. In MENA, rice harvesting is underway in Iran in the north. In Egypt, harvesting of summer-planted rice is just beginning while the Nili season (Nile Flood) rice crops continue to develop.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of September 28th.
In North America, harvest begins in the US under exceptional conditions in many states with forecasted record national yields. In Canada, harvest is beginning under favourable conditions with an increase in total sown area compared to last season. In Asia, conditions are favourable in China as harvest begins in the northeast. In India, conditions remain favourable. In Europe, conditions in the EU are exceptional in France and Italy, while poor in Hungary and Romania, due to hot and dry weather. Overall for the EU, yield expectations are 3% above the 5-year average. In Ukraine, harvest is progressing with lower yields due to hot and dry weather during the growing season, however, conditions are favourable in the western region. In the Russian Federation, harvest is ongoing with poor yield expectations in the south due to hot and dry weather. In Africa, conditions are favourable in Nigeria, however, in the north, socio-economic issues and persistent conflict are impacting crops. In South America, sowing is just beginning in Brazil in irrigated parts of the Central-West region and areas with ample soil moisture in the South region. An increase in the total sown area is estimated compared to last season.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
ENSO-neutral conditions have been present since June 2024. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 71 to 83 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
August 2024 was the hottest August on record and the 15th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures according to NOAA NCEI. 2024 will rank among the warmest years on record. Above-average temperatures are forecast in many regions during late 2024, continuing the elevated likelihood of adverse heat impacts. Excessive heat can be particularly damaging during periods of moisture stress or reproductive stages that determine final yields.
Associated with the forecast La Niña and very warm temperatures, the multi-year pattern of climate extremes may continue. According to NOAA’s August update, there is a 90% chance of an overall highly active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane activity typically peaks from mid-August to October.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Regional Outlooks
The long-range forecast (3 months) is influenced by the likely development of a La Niña, while both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-range forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential areas of below-average precipitation over Ontario and parts of the Prairies in Canada and over most of the US. During the same time, temperatures will likely be above-average across most of the Prairies and eastern Canada, and most of the US. The long-term October-November-December 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows a leaning toward below-average precipitation over southern Ontario in Canada and most of the US except for the Pacific Northwest, while above-average precipitation is likely in British Columbia and northern Canada. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across eastern Canada and the southwestern US. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the US.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southeast Mexico, northern Guatemala, northern Honduras, and western Nicaragua, while below-average precipitation over northern and central Mexico. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average over northern and western Mexico, southern Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The long-term October-November-December 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests above-average precipitation over southeastern Mexico, Belize, Honduras, Nicaragua, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica, while below-average precipitation is likely over northern and central Mexico. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across most of the region except for the Baja California peninsula in Mexico, southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 October 2024, issued on 27 September 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central Ecuador, coastal Peru, and coastal south Brazil, while below-average precipitation is likely over central Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and central Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, northern Argentina, western Uruguay. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, southern Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil, northern Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and northern and eastern Paraguay, while temperatures will likely be below-average over Uruguay, central Chile, and parts of central and western Argentina. The long-term October-November-December 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over northwest Columbia, while below-average precipitation is likely over northeast Venezuela, northern Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northeast and southern Brazil, Ecuador, northern and western Peru, central Chile, eastern Argentina, and Uruguay. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil, eastern Ecuador, eastern Peru, Bolivia, northern Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay, while likely below-average over central Chile and coastal Peru. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Argentina and Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning to above-average precipitation over northern Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, western Belarus, and the western Russian Federation, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over southeast Spain, western and eastern France, northern Italy, Greece, central-west Türkiye, and Azerbaijan. During this time, temperatures are leaning towards above-average over Portugal, southern Spain, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Serbia, Bulgaria, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Albania, Greece, Türkiye, the western and central Russian Federation, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. The long-term October-November-December 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) Indicates a leaning toward below-average precipitation over Portugal, Spain, and southeast Türkiye. During the same period, temperatures are leaning to above-average across most of Europe, with the highest likelihood surrounding the Mediterranean.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 October 2024, issued on 27 September 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Tunisia, northern Algeria, eastern Morocco, while below-average precipitation over northwest Iran. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and western Iran. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates precipitation is likely to be near normal across much of the region except for leaning towards below-average precipitation over Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Mauritania, Mali, northern Guinea, Burkina Faso, western Niger, northern Benin, northwest Nigeria, northern Cameroon, and the western Central African Republic, while below-average precipitation over coastal Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, coastal Gabon, southwest Republic of the Congo, western and southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, central Ethiopia, Somalia, and western South Africa. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northeast Niger, northern Chad, northern Sudan, southern Nigeria, southwest Cameroon, western and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, southern Angola, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, northern Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana, central South Africa, Lesotho, and Madagascar, while below-average in Senegal, southern Mauritania, central Mali, Burkina Faso, and southwest Niger. For the long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average in eastern Mali, Niger, Chad, northern Central African Republic, southern Sudan, South Sudan, western Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, northern Tanzania, and eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, while below-average over Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Gabon, Republic of the Congo, western Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, and central South Africa. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across most of Sub-Saharan Africa except for central Niger, central Chad, southern Sudan, southwest Ethiopia, northwest Kenya, coastal Namibia, and southwest South Africa. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa, West Africa, and Southern Africa.
Figure 3: Probabilistic forecast for most likely October-November-December (OND) 2024 rainfall tercile, based on September conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, and western Tajikistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be below-average in in western Kazakhstan, northern Kyrgyzstan central Uzbekistan, and central Turkmenistan. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning to below-average precipitation over southern Kazakhstan, western Kyrgyzstan, eastern Uzbekistan, southern Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation northern Pakistan, northern and southern India, Nepal, northern Bangladesh, and Bhutan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in southwest Pakistan, northwestern and northeastern India, Nepal, Bhutan, and southeast Sri Lanka, while below-average over eastern Pakistan and western India. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, while below-average over northern Pakistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the region except for eastern Pakistan and central India.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central-west China, while below-average over western Mongolia and northern and southern China. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across southwest and southern China, while below-average across north central and northeast China and northern Democratic Republic of Korea. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning toward above-average precipitation over coastal China. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the region.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential above-average precipitation over Laos, north and northeast Thailand, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and northern Papua New Guinea, while below-average over northern Myanmar, eastern Malaysia, and Indonesia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northeast Myanmar, northern Thailand, Laos, northern and central Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia, while a leaning towards below-average in southern Australia. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Myanmar, Thailand, southern Laos, Viet Nam, Cambodia, the Philippines, eastern Malaysia, eastern Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. During the same time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region except for southern Australia. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Australia.
Figure 4: Probabilistic forecast for most likely October-November-December (OND) 2024 temperature tercile, based on September conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble