Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 110: Published November 6th 2025
Conditions as of October 28th
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Overview
In East Africa, erratic rains are expected to result in yield declines for some northern areas, while a severely dry October to December rainfall season is impacting second season crops in the south.
In West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is nearing completion with generally favourable outcomes expected, except in conflict-affected regions.
In the Middle East & North Africa, there are concerns due to ongoing dry conditions impacting winter cereal establishment and development in most areas.
In Southern Africa, planting conditions are generally favourable for the start of the main summer cropping season, and La Niña is expected to bring beneficial rains to most areas.
In Central & South Asia, conditions remain favourable for winter wheat, except in Afghanistan where there are prevailing dry concerns.
In Southeast Asia, conditions are favourable for dry-season crops in the south, while storm damage in September and October impacted wet-season crops in parts of the north.
In Central America & the Caribbean, concern remains for Segunda/Postrera season crops due to drier and hotter than normal conditions and periods of increased rains in some areas.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Harvesting of main/Meher season cereals is underway in the north, and a dry start to the season followed by enhanced rains and flooding is expected to result in yield declines in some areas. In the south, a delayed and drier than normal October to December rainfall season is impacting most areas, and below-average rainfall amounts are expected to continue through December (See Regional Alert Pg. 7).
WEST AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in all areas, and generally favourable weather conditions during most of the season are expected to result in above-average aggregate cereal production.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Planting of winter cereals is underway with ongoing dry concerns and limited irrigation water availability in most areas. Below-average rains are forecast to continue through mid-December across parts of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, and there are elevated chances of sub-optimal growing conditions in northwestern areas and the Middle East (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10)
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Planting for the 2025/26 main summer cropping season is underway, and start of season conditions are generally favourable despite erratic rains received in some areas. The current La Niña event is expected to bring normal to above-normal rains through December to central and southern areas, with a positive impact on crops (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12).
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Planting and development of winter wheat continues under mostly favourable conditions, except in Afghanistan where there are prevailing dry concerns. In Pakistan, end of season conditions are favourable for Kharif (summer) season crops despite the impacts of significant monsoon flooding this season, particularly in Punjab.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: In the south, conditions for dry-season crops are favourable due to sufficient sunlight and irrigation water. In the north, wet-season harvesting is underway, and there is concern in several areas due to storm damage in September and October.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Segunda/Postrera season maize and beans continue to develop with concern across Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua due to a combination of dry and hot conditions and periods of increased rains that resulted in waterlogging.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over southeastern and central west Brazil, northern Bolivia, northwestern Argentina, northern Chile, Ireland, western Norway, northern Sweden, Finland, southern Tunisia, central Libya, southeastern Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, western and southern Iran, northern Saudi Arabia, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern and eastern Nigeria, Cameroon, western Central African Republic, Madagascar, central Viet Nam, the Philippines, and central east Australia.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over the Canadian Prairies, the southwestern US, central Mexico, northern Honduras, eastern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, northeastern Colombia, northwestern Venezuela, French Guiana, northeastern and southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, Uruguay, central and eastern Argentina, southern Chile, Portugal, Spain, southern France, northern Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, southern Romania, central and southern Ukraine, the southern and eastern Russian Federation, northwestern Türkiye, northern Morocco, northern Libya, northern Egypt, southern South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, northern Mozambique, northern Malawi, northeastern Zambia, southern and northern Angola, Namibia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, northern Pakistan, southern India, Sri Lanka, central Mongolia, China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, southern Japan, northern Viet Nam, northern Laos, southeastern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and southern Australia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 6 – 19 December 2025, issued on 28 November 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: La Niña conditions expected to continue into early 2026 and negative Indian Ocean Dipole event expected to end in December
La Niña conditions are present and will likely subside in early 2026. There are 51 percent chances of La Niña during December 2025 to February 2026 and 61 percent chances of neutral ENSO during January to March 2026, according to the CPC/IRI Official ENSO Outlook.
La Niña conditions typically increase the chances of below-average precipitation in East Africa, Central and South Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia, while typically increasing the chances of above-average precipitation in parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
The combination of negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and La Niña conditions during October and November 2025 severely impacted eastern East Africa’s short rains season, with below-average rainfall, hotter-than-average temperatures, and poor crop and pasture conditions in Somalia and northern and eastern Kenya. Above-average rainfall in the Indo-Pacific region - also consistent with negative IOD and La Niña - was also observed. In December, IOD conditions will likely return to neutral.
Global temperatures for October 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. Record-breaking maximum temperatures occurred during November in northern Canada, the Middle East, the southern United States, and elsewhere. During December 2025, abnormally cold temperatures are forecast in Canada and the northern United States. Abnormally hot conditions are forecast across central and eastern Africa, and in western and eastern Australia, northern Argentina, and southwestern and eastern Brazil. Temperatures will likely be warmer than normal in central Asia, Europe, Mexico, and the southern United States.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is underway in Ethiopia (Meher season), unimodal rainfall areas of central and northern South Sudan, Sudan, Eritrea, and Yemen under mixed conditions. Poor outcomes are expected in central-east and southern agricultural regions of Ethiopia, central and northern South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen where early season dry conditions were followed by a shift to ample seasonal rains that resulted in crop damage but also benefitted yields with improved soil moisture. Additionally, ongoing conflict continues to result in significant challenges for production in Sudan, and socio-economic challenges related to a recent uptick in conflict are impacting South Sudan. Conversely, favourable outcomes are expected elsewhere in Ethiopia, despite residual socio-economic challenges due to movement restrictions in the north, as well as in southeastern South Sudan and Eritrea. Additionally, second season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage in bimodal areas of southern South Sudan, where conditions have been upgraded to favourable, and planting of winter wheat is just beginning in Sudan.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in unimodal regions in the western half of Kenya and in unimodal regions in northern Uganda, and the long rains crops benefited from average to above-average rainfall amounts. Planting and development of second season cereals continues in Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, and the United Republic of Tanzania with ongoing concern in most areas due to a delayed and dry start to the season. In Somalia, there is significant concern regarding country-wide drought conditions that are already expected to result in yield declines. Drought is also likely in eastern Kenya and southeastern Ethiopia, which have received extremely low rains during the October to December short rains season. Below-average rainfall is expected to continue in December across most areas, and negative yield impacts are expected (See Regional Alert Pg. 7).
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, harvesting of main season millet and sorghum is just beginning, and persistent conflict and mixed precipitation outcomes are expected to reduce yields. Poor rainfall outcomes in June negatively impacted southeastern key producing areas in Gedaref, White Nile, and Sennar states. The early-season dry conditions were followed by a shift to abundant mid to late-season rains that improved vegetation but resulted in widespread flooding from July, impacting the western Darfur states and eastern areas near Port Sudan and Blue Nile. Cumulative seasonal rainfall is above average, and the rains generally benefitted vegetation conditions this season despite localized losses. However, ongoing conflict is expected to result in yield outcomes that are below the pre-conflict average. This year, the high price and limited availability of inputs negatively impacted agricultural activities despite improved security in some main producing areas, including Al Jazirah and Sennar states. Because Earth Observation alone cannot reliably distinguish spontaneous vegetation from cultivated crops, the exact planted area remains uncertain. However, the seasonal pattern, including a slightly delayed onset followed by exceptional mid-season rainfall, closely resembles 2024 when the season ended with above-average production despite conflict-related disruptions. In unimodal rainfall areas of central and northern South Sudan, harvesting of the 2025 crops continues with generally poor outcomes expected. Early season rainfall deficits were followed by above-average amounts that benefited vegetation conditions in some areas but were insufficient for full recovery in parts of Upper Nile and Jonglei states. Additionally, the rains resulted in the overflow of the Nile and its tributaries and extensive flooding which subsided towards the end of the season. Furthermore, a deterioration of security conditions since early 2025 negatively impacted agricultural activities, causing related socio-economic challenges. In southern bimodal rainfall areas, conditions have been upgraded to favourable for second season maize and sorghum crops, which will be harvested from December. In Ethiopia, harvesting of Meher season cereals continues with generally favourable outcomes expected, except in central-east and southern producing regions that experienced a mix of rainfall deficits and flooding impacts throughout the season. Early season deficits were followed by a shift to enhanced mid-season rains that resulted in flooding in several areas, including parts of Amhara, Gambella, Oromia, and the former SNNP regions. Specifically, East and West Hararghie Zones in eastern Oromia, northern portions of Somali bordering eastern Oromia, and the northeastern Amhara region are likely to harvest below-average Meher crop yields. Conversely, western areas experienced a near-normal season with normal to slightly above-normal production expected. Favourable outcomes are also expected in the north, though residual socio-economic challenges continue to affect parts of Tigray and Amhara, with some areas remaining inaccessible. In Eritrea, harvesting of main season wheat and sorghum crops is just beginning under favourable conditions. In Yemen, sorghum harvesting finalized in November with poor outcomes expected due to a combination of early season dry conditions, followed by a shift to intense rainfall since early August that benefited vegetation conditions but resulted in widespread flooding.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, Deyr season cereals, which account for 40 percent of total cereal output, are in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from mid-December, and there is significant concern regarding country-wide drought conditions that are severely affecting crops and livestock. On November 11, the government declared a national drought emergency. This year’s drought is likely to compound the impacts of the continuous 2020-2023 drought, which households are still recovering from. In the main producing southern areas, drought conditions during October and the first half of November negatively impacted the establishment and development of Deyr crops. In the main maize-producing Lower and Middle Shabelle regions as well as in the sorghum belt of Bay Region, 70 to over 85 percent of cropland was affected by severe drought as of mid-November, resulting in germination failures and crop wilting. In northern pastoral areas, the 2025 rainy season marked the fourth consecutive season of rainfall failure, severely affecting rangelands and pastoral livelihoods. Deyr season precipitation typically declines by early December, and forecasts indicate below-average rains are expected for the remainder of the rainy season (See Regional Alert Pg. 7). Associated with the current La Niña, there is an increased likelihood of below-average maize and sorghum yields. During past years with similar La Niña patterns, Deyr season sorghum yields were 25 percent below normal, and maize yields were 22 percent below normal on average. In unimodal and major producing regions in the western half of Kenya as well as in the centre, harvesting of long rains cereals is nearing completion under favourable conditions. Rice crops are developing in the central and western areas under favourable conditions. Additionally, planting of short rains maize is just beginning with concern in bimodal regions in the eastern half of the country due to a delayed and drier than normal start to the season, which is forecast to continue through December (See Regional Alert Pg. 7). In Uganda, harvesting of first season cereals is nearing completion in the unimodal north under favourable conditions. There is concern for second season maize crops due to a drier than normal start to the season, particularly in the northwest where poor outcomes are expected. In Rwanda and Burundi, dry concerns remain in most areas, though the eastern regions are showing slightly better conditions. In Burundi, La Niña-induced delayed and below-average rains since September have driven below-normal crop development. Season A crops, which comprise 35 percent of total annual cereal production, are now in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and harvest outcomes are expected to be below average. In Rwanda, a poor start to the short rains from September to November negatively affected the establishment and development of Season A crops. In the United Republic of Tanzania, Vuli season crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage across the country, while planting of Msimu season cereals is just beginning in unimodal areas of the centre and south. There is concern in most regions due to a delayed and drier than normal start to the season, except in the southeast where rainfall outcomes are adequate to support crop development.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Alert: Worsening OND 2025 drought conditions, with below-average rainfall forecast to continue in East Africa
Drought is highly likely in eastern Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia, and southern Somalia, which has received extremely below-average rains during the October–December (OND) short rains season. After a poor start to the rainy season, severe rainfall deficits of 50 to 200 mm were observed in southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and areas of southeastern Ethiopia in late October to late November (Figure 1-left). Affected areas will likely receive less than 30 percent of average rainfall from October 1st to December 10th based on preliminary CHIRPS data and a 15-day forecast (Figure 1 middle-left). According to that rainfall outlook, rainfall totals for that period could be among the lowest on record in eastern Kenya, southwestern and eastern Somalia, and other locations.
Observed vegetation conditions based on NDVI on November 16th–25th are substantially below average in southern Somalia, eastern Kenya, and portions of southeastern Ethiopia, indicating degraded pasture conditions and poor rainfed performance. The dry conditions have been characterized as a failed start to the season in rainfed areas of south-central Somalia, and portions of southeastern Ethiopia. There are more than 70 percent chances of below-normal vegetation conditions in Gedo and lower Juba in Somalia, and in Wajir and Garissa in Kenya, based on a WRSI Outlook. Abnormally high temperatures during October and November have further exacerbated moisture loss, accelerating the drying of water resources. Estimates of water holes indicate severe water stress in Somalia, southeastern Ethiopia, and eastern and northern Kenya. In eastern and northern Kenya, if drought conditions persist, distances to functional boreholes are expected to exceed 5 km in Mandera, Turkana, Tana River, and Wajir counties, increasing health risks and risks to livestock conditions (Reliefweb). In Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia, rainfall usually diminishes at the end of November, and the dry season persists until March, leaving minimal opportunity for near-term recovery of rainfed agriculture, pasture, and water resources.
Between October 1st and November 25th, drier-than-average conditions were also observed in central and northern Somalia, southern Ethiopia, South Sudan, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania. Below-average rainfall is likely to continue in many OND rainfall-receiving regions during the next several weeks, based on the CHIRPS-GEFS 15-day forecast, ECMWF weekly forecasts for early to mid December, and the SubC 30-day forecast through December (Figure 1 middle-right). Above-average temperatures are also forecast during December (Figure 1-right) and through March 2026, which will further degrade vegetation and intensify water shortages. Close monitoring of conditions are needed as observed and forecast dry and hot conditions are likely to exacerbate existing food insecurity risks.
Figure 1. A recent rainfall anomaly, seasonal rainfall anomaly, 30-day rainfall forecast, and 1-month temperature forecast. Left and middle-left panels are CHC Early Estimates, which compare recent precipitation totals to the 1981-2024 CHIRPS average for the respective accumulation period. Left: This panel shows precipitation anomaly for October 26th to November 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS Preliminary data for November 01-25. Middle-left: The percent of average precipitation for October 1st to December 10th, 2025, using CHIRPS Preliminary data for November 01-25 and CHIRPS-GEFS for November 26th to December 10th. Middle-right: SubC multi-model rainfall tercile probability forecast for December 1st to 30th, 2025. From UCSB CHC SubC. Right: December 2025 temperature forecast from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, northern Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, harvesting of second season cereals is underway in Nigeria, while second season maize continues to develop in Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, and Cameroon. Along the Sahel, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. Additionally, planting of second season rice is underway in Mauritania and Mali.
Most areas of the subregion experienced generally favourable weather conditions during most of the season, with average to above-average rainfall amounts and adequate distribution, despite localized impacts from rainfall deficits and flooding in some areas. However, poor outcomes are expected in areas experiencing persistent insecurity and socio-economic challenges, including in central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, northern Nigeria, the Far North and southwestern regions in Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Aggregate cereal production for the subregion is forecast to reach 82.9 million tonnes, reflecting a 10.4 percent increase compared to the last five-year average and a 7.3 percent increase from the last agricultural campaign. However, declines are anticipated in Cabo Verde and Senegal, according to the 2025 Regional Food Crisis Prevention and Management System (PREGEC) report and regional consultation.
Middle East & North Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Winter Wheat conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across the Middle East and North Africa, planting for 2025/26 winter cereal crops began in October and will continue through December across Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. There are ongoing dry concerns in most areas due to minimal rainfall received between October and November, and water availability for irrigation is low due to dry conditions in the previous season. Below-average rainfall is forecast to continue into mid-December in parts of Morocco, northwestern Algeria, and Tunisia, while likely wetter than normal conditions are forecast in northeastern Africa and the Middle East (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). Conversely, growing conditions remain favourable in central and eastern Algeria and bordering areas of western Tunisia where vegetation conditions are near-normal and in Egypt where crops are mostly irrigated. Long-range forecasts are uncertain for December to February; however, some models indicate an elevated chance of sub-optimal growing conditions in northwestern Africa and the Middle East (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10)
In Morocco, sowing of winter cereals will mostly take place in November and December. This year, the country experienced a drier than normal start to the season, receiving only 30 to 50 percent of normal rainfall from October to early November. However, rains improved from the second dekad of November, particularly in the northwest, from Doukkala-Abda to Tanger-Tétouan, which is expected to support crop establishment and early development. In Algeria, sowing of winter cereals began in October and will continue through January. However, mixed rainfall outcomes since the start of the season have resulted in mixed crop conditions. In the west, a rainfall deficit through early November resulted in delayed sowings and crop growth. Conversely, in the centre and east, slightly better rainfall outcomes resulted in average to above-average crop biomass. In Tunisia, sowing of winter cereals began in October and will continue through December. The eastern half of the country experienced drier than normal conditions since the start of the season, resulting in below-average biomass in many areas, including in Beja, the main durum and soft wheat producing governorate, where sowings may have been delayed. In Egypt, harvesting of summer-planted rice and maize finalized in November, while Nili season (Nile flood) rice crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and overall conditions are favourable. Sowing of winter wheat is just beginning under favourable conditions.
In Lebanon, sowing of winter cereals continues with concern as drought conditions were observed from August to November. In Syria, sowing of winter cereals began in October and will continue through December and January. Following a drier and warmer than normal start to the season, the main cereal-producing areas experienced a shift to near-average rains in the second dekad of November, favouring winter cereal establishment. In Iraq, sowing of winter cereals is underway and will continue through December. Following a drier than average start to the season from October through early November, most areas experienced rainfall improvements from the second dekad of November. In Iran, sowing of winter wheat finalized in November, while sowing of winter barley is expected to continue through December under drier and warmer than normal conditions. Central and southern areas have received 30 to 50 percent of normal rainfall since October, signalling the onset of the rainy season in most areas, with the exception of regions along the Caspian Sea that receive summer precipitation. Persistent dry weather conditions from the 2024/25 season and through the start of planting have depleted water reserves and are negatively impacting sowing activities. There is currently an ongoing water crisis due to several consecutive years of rainfall deficits, and many dams are filled at less than 10 percent of capacity. As a result, irrigation water availability is expected to be limited this season.
Regional Outlook: Drier-than-average conditions begin the fall-winter 2025-2026 season
Fall 2025 in the Middle East and North Africa has been mainly drier and warmer than average. Rainfall was below average in Morocco, northern Algeria, Tunisia, northwestern Libya, and the Middle East from late September to late November (Figure 1-top left). In Syria, Jordan, Iraq, and eastern Iran, warm temperatures during early-mid November reached record-high values.
Below-average rainfall will likely continue at least into mid-December in northern Morocco, localized areas of northwestern Algeria, and northern and eastern Tunisia, based on two-week CHIRPS-GEFS rainfall forecast from November 30th (Figure 1 top-right) and several SubC model forecasts. Past 2-month rainfall anomalies range from 25 mm to 100+ mm in parts of Morocco, Tunisia, and Iran. While it is early in the rainy season, the poor start highlights the need for improved conditions from substantial storms in these areas. Forecast wetter conditions may bring above-average rainfall to areas near the eastern Mediterranean Sea, which may improve conditions in Libya, coastal areas of the Middle East, and some inland areas.
Seasonal precipitation forecasts for December 2025 to February 2026 are largely uncertain (Figure 1 bottom-left). However, a pessimistic outlook for root-zone soil moisture for February 2026, and other months, from NASA’s CHIRPS and NMME forecast-based hydrologic model, indicates there will be ongoing elevated chances of suboptimal 2025–2026 growing season conditions in northwestern Africa and the Middle East (Figure 1 bottom-center). Additional weather characteristics to look for are possible influences of very warm eastern Mediterranean Sea conditions on rainfall in coastal and eastern areas— similar to the two-week forecast—and much warmer-than-normal temperatures in northeastern Africa and the Middle East during Winter 2025–2026 (Figure 1 bottom-right) and Spring 2026 across the region.
Figure 1. A 2-month rainfall anomaly, 15-day rainfall forecast, 3-month rainfall forecast, a NASA soil moisture forecast for February 2026, and a 3-month temperature forecast. Top-left: Difference from average precipitation for September 26th to November 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS Preliminary data for November 2025 and a 1981-2024 baseline. From CHC Early Estimates. Top-right: 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast rainfall anomaly from November 30th, 2025. Bottom-left: ECMWF and NMME 3-month multimodel ensemble forecast tercile probability for December 2025 to February 2026 precipitation from UCSB CHC MME. Bottom-middle: A root zone soil moisture anomaly forecast for February 2026 from NASA’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) NHyFAS Forecast model, based on November conditions. Bottom-right: ECMWF and NMME 3-month multimodel ensemble forecast tercile probability for December 2025 to February 2026 highly above average 2m temperatures (> 80th percentile), from UCSB CHC MME.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across Southern Africa, planting for the 2025/26 main summer cropping season is just beginning across all regions, including in Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, eSwatini, and Lesotho. Agro-climatic conditions are generally favourable across all regions, and most regions received sufficient moisture for newly planted crops. Substantially above-average amounts were received in November across parts of the southwest, centre, and northeast, and some areas experienced a slightly early onset (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). The rains have also resulted in increased red locust and African migratory locust activity in Angola, Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia, while brown locust infestations have risen in northwestern South Africa and southeastern Namibia. Conversely, erratic rains were received over the past month in parts of eSwatini, southern Mozambique, and central Namibia, though planting conditions remain favourable. Additionally, critically low levels of the Kariba Dam are expected to constrain power generation in Zambia and Zimbabwe, disrupting irrigation and agricultural activities that require electricity, and dam levels may approach minimum operating levels by the end of the year. In South Africa, widespread above-normal rainfall over the summer rainfall region since October supported dryland cultivation and resulted in favourable planting conditions for maize and soybeans. Additionally, following a wet 2024/25 summer season, dam levels are full to support irrigated crops. In northeastern Mozambique, ongoing conflict continues to negatively impact agricultural activities and limit access to agricultural land and inputs in Cabo Delgado province. Intensifying conflict is now spilling over into previously safe districts in Nampula province. Throughout Southern Africa, current weak La Niña conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of 2025. Beneficial rains are forecast to continue through December across the centre and south, while drier than average conditions are expected to continue across western Angola and southeastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Long-range forecasts are uncertain for January to March; however, there is a possibility of continued above-normal rainfall in central-eastern areas, consistent with the current weak La Niña and expected transition to neutral ENSO conditions around that time (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12).
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, harvesting of main season maize and rice is complete or nearing completion across the centre, north, and west, while planting and development continue along the east and southeast. Conditions are generally favourable as recent dry concerns have been mitigated in the west. However, ongoing conflict in the east and instability in the west continue to disrupt agricultural activities.
Wheat harvesting is nearing completion in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho, with mostly favourable to exceptional outcomes expected, except in the Western Cape of South Africa where dry conditions since August had a negative impact on dryland wheat yields. In Zimbabwe, record wheat production is expected.
Regional Outlook: Above-average rains forecast through December in central and southern areas
October 1st to November 25th rainfall totals are substantially above average in many locations, with greater than 150 percent of average amounts in southwestern, central, and northeastern areas of the region (Figure 1, left). Most areas received above-average or average rainfall during recent weeks. Moderate to high rainfall amounts, which ranged from 25 mm to 150+ mm above average amounts, occurred during late October to late November in Zambia, Malawi, central and northern Mozambique, northern Madagascar, Zimbabwe, northeastern Namibia, Lesotho, and central South Africa. October 1st to November 25th totals remain below average in western Angola, southern and central DRC, central-western Madagascar, southern Mozambique, eSwatini, and portions of eastern and southern South Africa.
Beneficial rains will likely continue during December across central and southern areas. SubC model forecasts from December 1st predict normal to above-normal rainfall for December (Figure 1, middle-left) and the continuation of cooler-than-normal temperatures. Drier-than-average conditions will likely continue in western Angola, southeastern DRC, and Tanzania.
Multi-model ensemble forecasts exhibit an uncertain outlook for rainfall from January to March 2026, with a weak tendency for above-normal rainfall in central-eastern areas (Figure 1, middle-right). This is consistent with an expected transition from weak La Nina conditions to neutral ENSO conditions around that time.
The NASA root zone soil moisture forecast continues to indicate above-normal moisture levels in January 2026 in central areas (Figure 1, right), while the November Extended Outlook analysis of historical yield data, using analog December-to-February La Niña years, continues to highlight an increased likelihood of above average maize yields in Zimbabwe, Lesotho, and South Africa for the 2025–2026 season. These outcomes seem plausible, based on the observed above-average to average rainfall that is forecast to continue during December and potentially into early 2026.
The Kariba Dam water level has been decreasing and as of November 25th is at 6.86 percent of capacity. Low operating levels are expected to continue to severely constrain power generation in Zambia and Zimbabwe and disrupt irrigation, industrial activities, and agricultural operations requiring electricity, according to the November 2025 issue of the SADC Disaster and Food Security Early Warning System's Agromet Update. The update also highlighted elevated threats from above-average rainfall, including crop pests and flooding and waterlogging in low-lying and flood-prone areas in Zimbabwe, Botswana, Mozambique, South Africa, and Malawi. Red Locust outbreaks were being controlled in the border areas of Botswana, Zambia, and Namibia in late October and early November 2025, and wet conditions raise the risks of new hatching and infestations of crop and rangeland areas.
Figure 1. Seasonal rainfall anomaly, a 30-day rainfall probability forecast, a 3-month rainfall forecast, and a NASA soil moisture forecast for January 2026. Left: Percent of average precipitation for October 1st to November 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS3 for October and CHIRPS3 preliminary data for November. From the CHC Early Estimates. Left-middle: SubC multi-model rainfall tercile probability forecast for December 1st to 30th, 2025. From UCSB CHC SubC. Middle-right: C3S model probabilistic forecast for January to March 2026 precipitation tercile, based on models initialized in November. From NOAA PSL’s C3S Monthly to Seasonal Forecasts. Right: Probabilistic forecast for January 2026 root zone soil moisture tercile, from the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System’s FLDAS forecast. The FLDAS forecast uses CHIRPS and MERRA-2 reanalysis data through October 2025 and forecasted meteorological conditions for November 2025 to January 2026 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the GEOSv2 model.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing Winter Wheat conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central & South Asia, planting and development of winter wheat is underway in southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Above-average rainfall amounts received in September resulted in generally adequate soil moisture conditions in most countries, and adequate water reservoir levels are likely to support irrigation requirements, except in Afghanistan where prevailing dry conditions are hindering planting and crop establishment. However, the prevailing La Niña is expected to negatively influence rainfall outcomes during the first part of the season, and overall cropping outcomes will depend on the performance of the December 2025 to May 2026 rains (See November CM4EW report).
In Afghanistan, harvesting of second season maize and rice is nearing completion, and while limited irrigation water availability and other factors reduced the planted area, overall yield outcomes are favourable. Land preparation for the 2025/26 winter wheat season began in October, and there is concern as a significantly drier than normal start to the wet season has disrupted planting operations and crop establishment. The northern rainfed belt, particularly Faryab, Daykundi, and Ghor provinces, has been significantly affected by several consecutive years of drought. Planting progress for rainfed crops is slow and below average nationwide, and the final planted area of rainfed wheat is expected to be below average due to likely drier than normal conditions forecast through the end of December, particularly if spring wheat planting does not make up for the deficit. Due to the absence of adequate rainfall and humidity, many farmers are foregoing the winter wheat season to conserve resources for the spring wheat season. Conversely, planting is progressing adequately for irrigated areas, though the planted area is currently below average for this time of year. However, both surface and groundwater are in critical conditions, and some shallow wells are unusable. Rangeland conditions are also below average throughout the country, putting strain on the livestock sector and resulting in higher feed and livestock prices. Additionally, a 6.0 magnitude earthquake impacted southeastern areas on August 31, and another 6.3 magnitude earthquake impacted northern areas on November 3, resulting in widespread infrastructure damage, including tunnels and irrigation systems. In Pakistan, harvesting of Kharif (summer) season rice mostly finalized in November, except in Punjab, while harvesting of Kharif (summer) season maize is nearing completion. Despite significant flooding impacts in late June through September across many areas, end of season conditions are mostly favourable. Punjab was particularly impacted by the flooding, though impacts were either localized or mitigated with replanting, and production of both rice and maize at the national level is expected to be above average. Additionally, wheat planting is underway, and planted area is expected to be above average due to high domestic prices. The Ministry of National Food Security and Research recently announced that all provinces received their seed requirements. A combination of a timely recession of floodwaters, improved land access, and availability of certified seeds has increased sowing momentum, and the sowing target is expected to be achieved by the end of November.
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion while harvesting of dry-season maize is underway, and favourable yields are expected as sufficient sunlight and irrigation water were conducive for productivity. Additionally, planting of both wet-season rice and maize is underway, and crops are mostly in the vegetative stage with stable weather conditions and sufficient irrigation water. In northern Southeast Asia, November is the peak month of harvesting for wet-season rice, and wet-season maize is also in the harvesting stage. During September and October, some countries experienced significant flooding caused by a strong southwest monsoon and several tropical storms. As a result, yield expectations vary. For wet-season rice, poor outcomes are expected in the Philippines due to widespread lodging and flooding, and yield declines are possible in northern Thailand. For wet-season maize, poor outcomes are expected in the Philippines, Laos, and northern Viet Nam, and yield declines are possible in southern Viet Nam. Elsewhere, yield impacts due to the storms are expected to be mostly localized. Additionally, dry-season rice is in the land preparation to sowing stage, but it is delayed compared to previous years due to flooding, particularly in Cambodia. Dry-season maize is also in the land preparation to seeding stage. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh, conditions are mixed due to rainfall deficits in southeastern Nepal and recent cyclone impacts in Sri Lanka. Furthermore, in late November, intense monsoon rains and weather extremes have resulted in rapid onset flooding and landslides across parts of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Sri Lanka. Impacts on cultivated areas are currently unknown.
In Indonesia, dry-season rice harvesting is mostly complete under favourable conditions with 4.6 million hectares harvested, which is 12.6 percent higher than last year. Sufficient sunlight during the growing season was conducive to productivity. While heavy rain caused some flooding, it did not result in significant rice damage. November is also the fifth month of the dry-season maize harvest, with a total harvested area of 1.1 million hectares and favourable yields expected due to sufficient irrigation water and sunlight. Additionally, November is the second month of wet-season rice planting. Planting progress is slow due to inconsistent rainfall, and farmers are awaiting the optimal planting window. Crops are mostly in the vegetative phase and are benefiting from recent rains. November is also the second month of wet-season maize seeding, with a current area of 0.4 million hectares, and growing conditions are favourable due to sufficient irrigation water. In late November, Cyclone Seynar brought heavy flooding and landslides across North Sumatra, West Sumatra, and Aceh; however, the impact on cropping areas is still unknown. In Malaysia, about 95 percent of dry-season maize has been harvested with favourable yields expected. Additionally, planting of wet-season rice has reached 39 percent of the cultivation plan, and crops range from seeding to tillering stage through maturing stage. Weather conditions and irrigation supply are favourable for paddy fields due to consistent rains received. However, some areas received high rainfall amounts that led to flooding, particularly in the north. Seeding of wet-season maize is also underway, and most crops are in the vegetative stage under generally favourable conditions. The increased rains have supported early growth, and overall maize prospects remain stable, though wet field conditions may slow some farm operations. In Brunei, planting of wet-season rice is underway, and 40 percent of planted crops are in the tillering stage in both irrigated and rainfed areas, while the remaining areas are in the land preparation and seeding stage. Despite low precipitation rates with occasional heavy rainfall, conditions remain favourable due to high solar radiation and surface temperatures.
Crop condition map synthesizing maize conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In the Philippines, wet-season rice planted from July to August is currently in the maturing to harvesting stages, while wet-season maize planted from May to June is fully harvested. Recent typhoons and heavy rains resulted in significant damage to agricultural areas. In September and October, several cyclones and earthquakes impacted the country, including Typhoons Bualoi and Matmo, which submerged or damaged approximately 50,000 hectares of crops. In early November, Typhoon Kalmaegi (locally named Tino) impacted the Central Highlands and south-central coastal areas with severe flooding and landslides, damaging over 39,000 hectares of crops. On November 9, Super Typhoon Fung-wong (locally named Uwan) impacted northern areas, triggering flooding, landslides, and extreme winds. Overall wet-season rice production across Luzon to Visayas provinces is poor due to widespread lodging and flooding. The wet-season maize yield is lower than the previous year due to excessive rainfall and strong winds during the reproductive and maturing stage, and total production is expected to be poor. Additionally, dry-season maize planted from September to October is in the leaf to tasselling development stage, and yield is expected to be slightly below-average due to unfavourable weather conditions. In Thailand, wet-season rice is in the harvesting period, and production has slightly decreased compared to last year, mainly due to a reduction in the cultivated area and flood damage. Northern regions particularly experienced a decline in production caused by severe flooding in October, and conditions have been downgraded to watch. The total harvested area is estimated at 9.56 million hectares, which is slightly lower than last year. Wet-season maize is also in the harvesting stage, and production has increased by approximately 8 percent compared to last year, supported by an expansion of sown area and adequate water availability. However, heavy rains received in September and October resulted in lower grain quality with higher moisture content at harvest. Additionally, dry-season rice is in the land preparation stage, and the planted area is expected to decrease compared to last year due to low rice prices. Ongoing flooding has also delayed cultivation activities and is disrupting the planned planting schedule. Dry-season maize is also in the land preparation stage, and the sown area is expected to increase due to high maize prices. As a result, farmers are expected to shift more land towards maize cultivation. In northern Viet Nam, wet-season rice is in the harvesting stage, reaching 0.62 million hectares out of the total 0.98 million hectares planted, and harvesting is expected to be completed by the end of November. Yield is expected to be 5.2 tons per hectare, which is slightly lower than last year due to the impacts of storms in late October and early November. In the south, wet-season (autumn-winter and seasonal) rice is also in the harvesting stage, with a total harvested area of 0.48 million hectares. The yield is expected to be 5.8 tons per hectare, the same as last year, supported by warm weather and improved irrigation preparation. Additionally, some provinces in the Mekong Delta began sowing of dry-season (winter-spring) rice. Across all regions of the country, wet-season maize is in the harvesting stage, and several provinces were affected by tropical storms and flooding during the flowering and grain filling stages. As a result, wet-season maize production is expected to decline due to reductions in both cultivated area and yield. In lowland areas of Laos, harvesting of wet-season rice is nearing completion under favourable conditions. Harvesting reached 719 thousand hectares accounting for about 94 percent of the total planted area, and production is expected to be over 3 million tons with a favourable yield of 4.21 tons per hectare, which is slightly lower than last year. In upland areas, harvesting of wet-season rice is now complete. The total harvested area is over 74 thousand hectares, and the final production is expected to be over 155 thousand tons with a favourable yield of 2.09 tons per hectare. Additionally, wet-season maize is in the harvesting stage in north and central provinces, and 76 thousand hectares representing 80 percent of the planted area have been harvested. Final production is expected to be 400 thousand tons, which is below the seasonal expectation due to a decrease in the seeded area, and yield is expected to be below average at 4.2 tons per hectare. In Myanmar, harvesting of wet-season rice reached 1.09 million hectares, accounting for 18.2 percent of the total planted area of 6.0 million hectares. Harvesting progress is slightly earlier than last year. Production reached 4.8 million tons with a favourable yield of 4.4 tons per hectare, which is slightly higher than last year due to more conducive weather outcomes. Additionally, wet-season maize seeding is now complete with over 100 percent of the national target area, and 68 percent of the seeded area has been harvested. Soil moisture levels remain adequate despite below-normal rainfall outcomes across rice-producing areas, and crops are mostly in the reproductive stage under favourable conditions. Seeding of dry-season maize is underway with 15 percent of the target area. Soil moisture levels are adequate, and crops are in the seeding stage under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, harvesting of wet-season rice reached 1,290 thousand hectares with an estimated yield of 3.9 tons per hectare, representing a slight increase compared to last year. Additionally, the planted area of dry-season rice reached 9 percent of the national plan of 695 thousand hectares, and growing progress is delayed due to unstable weather conditions. The seeded area of dry-season maize reached 8 percent of the national plan of 27 thousand hectares, and crops are in the seeding to germination stage under favourable conditions.
In Sri Lanka, planting of Maha season maize (90 percent of annual maize output) and Maha season rice (60 percent of annual rice output) continues under mixed conditions. In late November, Cyclone Ditwah brought heavy rains, flooding, and landslides across all regions, particularly in Gampaha, Colombo, and Puttalam districts. The torrential rains compounded already saturated soils from monsoon precipitation, and a State of Emergency has been declared. While the impact on crops is still unknown, replanting will be possible for flood-affected areas if the floodwaters recede in time. In Nepal, harvesting of main season rice finalized in November, and conditions are mostly favourable except in the main producing Madhesh Province located in the southeast, which experienced rainfall deficits in June and July and a subsequent contraction in planted area, particularly in Mahottari, Dhanusa, and Siraha districts. Production is forecast at a slightly below-average level of 5.4 million tonnes. Additionally, wheat planting continues under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, harvesting of Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice output) and main season sorghum is underway while planting of Rabi season maize, Boro season rice (55 percent of annual rice output), and winter wheat is just beginning under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
In Central America, Segunda/Postrera season maize and beans continue to develop for harvest from December. Rainfall has been erratic this season, with generally average to above-average amounts recorded but with extended dry periods. The erratic rains and high temperatures are affecting the normal development of crops across Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, particularly for smallholder and subsistence farmers. Cold fronts in November resulted in increased rainfall along the Caribbean areas, particularly in Guatemala and Honduras, though the overall monthly average temperature remains above average across the subregion. Conversely, vegetation conditions remain favourable throughout El Salvador.
In northern Guatemala, drier than normal conditions received from late July through early September delayed the start of the season, resulting in below-average vegetation conditions. However, the arrival of the seasonal cold front in October brought heavy rains and crop damage to some areas. In the centre, excessive rainfall received in mid-September resulted in waterlogging in large areas of Verapaz, which is degrading crop conditions. Conditions are comparatively better in the east and south, particularly along the coastal departments. However, reduced and erratic precipitation coupled with an early end to the rainy season has resulted in significant crop damage in some areas and below-average vegetation conditions across large areas of Sololá, Sacatepéquez, and Guatemala departments and minor areas of San Marcos, Retalhuleu, Escuintla, Santa Rosa, and Suchitepéquez. In Honduras, harvesting of main season rice finalized in November while second season rice crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and overall conditions for rice remain favourable. Conversely, there is ongoing concern for the Segunda/Postrera season as areas in the southeast and centre recently experienced atypically dry conditions, and localized areas throughout the country experienced flooding. Average rainfall is expected in eastern areas through January, though likely erratic distribution and above-average temperatures through March could result in crop stress in Dry Corridor areas with limited irrigation. These conditions are likely to reduce basic grain yields for smallholder farmers. In northern Nicaragua, increased rains are now disrupting agricultural progress, and vegetation conditions are below average in Matagalpa, which comprises 30 percent of the cropland area. Additionally, some southern areas are presenting below-normal vegetation conditions despite near-normal temperature and rainfall outcomes during the Postrera season.
In Haiti, harvesting of secondary Été season maize and bean crops finalized in November. While yields are generally expected to be near average, production is expected to be below average due to land abandonment as a result of insecurity, high production costs, and lack of agricultural assets. Additionally, the passage of Hurricane Melissa in late October resulted in flooding, landslides, and
localized crop losses, particularly in Grand'Anse, Sud, Nippes, Sud-Est, Ouest, and L'Artibonit departments. Some irrigation systems were affected, but the storm also improved soil moisture conditions, which are supporting crop development. Sporadic and light precipitation since November has aided drainage of flooded areas and facilitated cropping activities where irrigation systems were not significantly affected. Land preparation for second season rice and Hiver season bean crops is underway, and planting will begin in December. However, persistent insecurity continues to result in the abandonment of arable land, particularly in Artibonite, Centre, and West departments, and economic depredation limits the government’s ability to maintain and improve agricultural infrastructure. In Cuba, harvesting of main season rice and maize is complete or nearing completion, and favourable yields are expected despite localized hurricane impacts. In late October, eastern parts of the country were impacted by the passage of Hurricane Melissa, particularly in Santiago de Cuba and Granma provinces. An estimated 158,000 hectares of agricultural land have been damaged, with impacts to staple crops expected to remain localized. Planting of second season rice and maize is just beginning under favourable conditions. However, residual flooding in agricultural areas continues to disrupt agricultural employment and livelihoods.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 (Segunda season) conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on Pg. 18.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published December 4th, 2025.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.