Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 101: Published February 6th, 2025
Conditions as of January 28th
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Overview
In East Africa, harvesting of main/Meher season cereals finalized in the north, and harvesting of second season cereals is mostly complete in the south. End of season conditions are mixed due to overly wet conditions, flooding, and areas impacted by conflict in the north as well as overly dry conditions in the eastern Horn and parts of the south. In West Africa, the 2024/25 main agricultural season concluded with generally favourable yield prospects despite erratic rainfall outcomes and distributions this season, except in conflict-affected areas and in northern Ghana where final yields are poor. In the Middle East & North Africa, winter wheat is developing under mixed conditions, with dry concerns in many areas and recent flooding impacts in northwestern Libya. In Southern Africa, conditions are mixed for main season cereal development due to dry and hot weather in late 2024 which exacerbated soil moisture deficits. Cyclone activity in January brought rains and some flooding to impacted areas, and forecasts indicate above-normal rains are expected through April in eastern areas. In Central & South Asia, wheat crops are developing under mostly favourable conditions except in rainfed parts of Pakistan where there are emerging drought concerns. In Southeast Asia, conditions are mostly favourable for wet-season rice harvesting in the south and dry-season rice planting in the north, except in Viet Nam where saltwater intrusion is expected to result in a shortage of agricultural water this season. In Central America & the Caribbean, harvesting of Segunda/Postrera season crops finalized in January under mostly favourable conditions, except in localized areas and for subsistence farmers in Honduras. In Haiti, flooding in late November and early December damaged bean crops.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals finalized in the north under mixed conditions due to impacts of heavy rains and flooding in South Sudan and Sudan as well as ongoing conflict in Sudan. In Ethiopia, Meher season yields are mostly expected to be favourable. In the south, harvesting of second season cereals is mostly complete, and rainfall deficits contributed to below-average yields in parts of Somalia. Below-normal rainfall is forecast to continue through the March to May period across east and western areas. (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6-7).
WEST AFRICA: Harvesting of 2024/25 main season cereals is mostly complete, and generally near-average yield outcomes are expected despite erratic rainfall this season, including overly wet conditions in the north and dry conditions in the south. Yield declines are expected in conflict-affected areas as well as in northern Ghana.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Winter wheat is in the vegetative to reproductive stage in all regions, and conditions are mixed due to continuing dry conditions in parts of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, northeastern Libya, Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq that are forecast to continue in the coming months (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10).
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Main season cereals are mostly in the vegetative to reproductive stage under mixed conditions. There is some concern due to low precipitation and above-average temperatures from late 2024. Conversely, intense tropical cyclone Chido and tropical cyclone Dikeledi brought heavy rains, strong winds, and flooding to affected areas in Mozambique, Madagascar, and Malawi, and enhanced cyclone activity is expected in the coming weeks (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13-14)
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Wheat crops are developing under mostly favourable conditions, except in the rainfed areas of Punjab, Balochistan, and Sindh provinces in Pakistan where there are emerging drought concerns. In Afghanistan, growing conditions are favourable despite below-average precipitation received. The February to July period is forecast to be drier and warmer than normal across many areas, raising concern for spring cereals (See Regional Outlook Pg. 16).
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Harvesting of wet-season rice is underway in the south while planting of dry-season rice commences in the north, and growing conditions are mostly favourable except in the Mekong Delta of Viet Nam where saltwater intrusion is expected to limit agricultural water supply.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Harvesting of Segunda/Postrera season crops finalized in January under mostly favourable conditions, except in some localized areas and for subsistence farmers in Honduras due to a combination of erratic rainfall outcomes, hot temperatures, and storm impacts.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over eastern Canada, the northeast US, Yucatan Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Panama, Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, northern and southern Brazil, Ecuador, northern and southern Peru, southwest Bolivia, northern Chile, Uruguay, eastern Argentina, Bulgaria, Greece, southern Italy, the northeast Russian Federation, southern Viet Nam, the Philippines, and northern Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over central Canada, Florida and the southwest US, western Mexico, Cuba, central Brazil, central Bolivia, central Chile, western and southern Argentina, eastern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Czechia, Poland, northern Norway, southern and northern Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary, northwest Romania, northern Austria, northern Serbia, the Russian Federation, Syria, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, southern Chad, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, southern South Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, western and southern Kenya, northern and eastern Tanzania, central Zambia, southeast Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, southern and western Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, northern and eastern India, northern Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Nepal, western and northeast China, northern and eastern Mongolia, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, central and southern Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, and western Papua New Guinea.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 February 2025, issued on 31 January 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: La Niña conditions are present and expected through April
La Niña conditions developed during December 2024 and are currently present. La Niña conditions are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance) and lasting through October 2025, according to the CPC/IRI. Despite being an anticipated weak (0.5-1.0 °C) and short-lived La Niña, forecast very warm western Pacific Ocean conditions would strengthen temperature gradients, which could potentially enhance or prolong La Niña’s impacts.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Global temperatures for January to December 2024 were the warmest on record since global records began in 1850. This value is 0.10 °C higher than the previous record that was set in 2023, according to the NOAA NCEI’s Monthly Global Climate Report.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals finalized across Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia (Meher season), and Eritrea under mixed conditions. Poor outcomes are expected in Sudan and unimodal regions of South Sudan due to a combination of overly wet conditions and widespread flooding as well as ongoing conflict in Sudan. Conversely, favourable outcomes are expected in bimodal regions of southwest and south-central South Sudan and in Eritrea. In Ethiopia, generally favourable outcomes are expected for Meher season cereals, except in southern Oromia which was impacted by long dry spells. Recurrent frosts and floods also impacted Meher crop production over isolated locations of east, north, central, and southwestern Ethiopia. Additionally, ongoing insecurity in northern Ethiopia continues to result in socio-economic challenges for production, though conflict-related losses are expected to be limited.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of second season cereals is complete or nearing completion in Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi under mixed conditions. Yield declines are expected in most of Somalia, and there is ongoing concern in bimodal regions of eastern Kenya due to dry conditions linked to the late 2024 La Niña event. Conversely, favourable outcomes are expected in northwestern Somalia, unimodal regions of western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and in most of Burundi except for localized areas affected by flooding and waterlogging. Land preparation for main season cereals is underway in Kenya, Uganda, and Rwanda, and planting will begin in February.
The Greater Horn of Africa is currently in a dry period, with rains expected to begin in mid-February in western areas and in March across other regions. Abnormal drier conditions that occurred during October to December 2024 will likely be followed by below-average March to May 2025 rainfall in the east and west, which could exacerbate the shortage of water and pasture and negatively affect crop performance over Ethiopia, Somalia, and Kenya. Conversely, wetter than normal conditions are expected in eastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, eastern Uganda, southwestern Kenya, and most parts of the United Republic of Tanzania (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6-7).
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, harvesting of main season millet and sorghum finalized under poor conditions due to a combination of above-average rains and subsequent flooding during the June to October growing season as well as ongoing insecurity. June to September 2024 rainfall was generally above-average, with peaks in June and July that caused extended floods in the west and in major producing areas of the east. Additionally, there were challenges regarding input access due to high costs and inflation. Wheat crops are now in the vegetative to reproductive stage with concern due to ongoing conflict. Reduced areas planted are visible on high resolution satellite imagery in irrigated regions of Al Jazeera and Sennar, according to JRC ASAP. Recent attacks on critical infrastructure, including power plants, water stations, and dams in Northern State, River Nile, Sennar, White Nile, and Gedaref, could pose additional challenges for agricultural production. In South Sudan, harvesting of main season cereals finalized in unimodal areas of the north, central, and southeast under poor conditions as this season was impacted by a mix of severe flooding, pest infestations, and prolonged dry spells. Harvests are likely to be significantly below-average in unimodal north and central areas most severely affected by the flooding. In these areas, the conclusion of the May to September rainy season was followed by a decline in the flooded area extent, though parts of the Sudd wetlands remained inundated as of mid-January. Conversely, in the unimodal Kapoeta region located in the southeast, prolonged dry spells are expected to result in yield declines. Additionally, harvesting of second season cereals also finalized in bimodal areas of the south-central and southwest under favourable conditions as weather outcomes were conducive to crop development in these regions. At the country level, harvests are expected to be similar to the previous year and near-average as some farmers were able to harvest before the flooding impacts or planted in less flood-prone areas. In Ethiopia, harvesting of Meher season cereals is now complete with near-average production outcomes at the country level despite limited impacts of unseasonal rains and flooding, dry spells, and cold waves this season. Excessive rainfall led to moderate crop losses in parts of Tigray, Amhara, and the Central Ethiopia Region, and recurrent floods and waterlogging impacted crops across central, northern, and southwestern areas. Conversely, long dry spells in parts of southern Oromia are expected to result in yield declines for the region. The dry spells are also expected to deplete water availability and pasture conditions across the pastoral regions of southern Ethiopia and south-southeastern Somali. Additionally, abnormally cold waves from November to January led to frost damage, affecting late-sown Meher crops in eastern Oromia. Across the north, political tensions and lingering insecurity continue to result in socio-economic challenges for production, including constrained seasonal labour migration. Harvesting activities were moderately disrupted in some areas, though conflict-related losses are expected to be limited. Furthermore, increased seismic activity since October 2024 was followed by several magnitude 5 events in December and over 50 earthquakes of magnitude 4.2 to 5.8 in early January 2025, affecting parts of Afar and Oromia, though harvesting outcomes were not impacted. In Eritrea, harvesting of main season sorghum and wheat finalized under favourable conditions following good rainfall outcomes over the June to September 2024 growing season.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, harvesting of Deyr season maize and sorghum finalized in January with below-average yields expected in central and southern areas as poorly distributed rains since late September resulted in abnormal dryness and drought. Rainfed areas in Bay and in the Shabelle regions located in the south of the country experienced nearly no rainfall until mid-November, which was too late for planting. Conversely, favourable outcomes are expected in the northwest where rainfall performance was adequate. A forecast continuation of below-normal rains for the 2025 April to June Gu season raises concerns for potential consecutive poor rainfall season outcomes (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6-7). In unimodal and major producing areas in the western half of Kenya, harvesting of long rains maize finalized in January while harvesting of main season rice is nearing completion, and favourable outcomes are expected as average to above-average October to December rainfall benefitted yields. In bimodal and minor producing areas in the eastern half of the country, short rains maize is in the vegetative to reproductive stage with ongoing concern regarding continuing dry conditions. This season, a late rainfall onset in October was followed by an early cessation in December. While some intermittent off-season rains have been received, they may not be sufficient due to warm temperatures and increased evapotranspiration. However, conditions in the unimodal central areas, where short rains maize is also grown, are favourable. In Uganda, harvesting of second season maize finalized under favourable conditions. Despite early season deficits, rainfall and soil moisture improvements during October and November are likely to result in near-average yields. However, in late November, heavy rains across Bulambuli and neighbouring districts located in the central-east triggered the overflow of River Simu and subsequent flooding and minor crop damage. In Rwanda and Burundi, harvesting of Season A maize crops is underway and will finalize in February, and conditions are favourable despite early season rainfall deficits in both countries as well as localized flooding and waterlogging impacts in Burundi. In bimodal areas of the north and northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania, harvesting of Vuli season maize is complete or nearing completion while planting and development of Masika season rice and wheat are underway, and overall conditions remain favourable. Elsewhere in unimodal areas of the country, planting and development of Msimu season cereals is underway, and there is ongoing concern along the south and west where delayed and below-average rains continue to impact crop development.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Forecast below-average March to May rains may worsen conditions in drought-affected areas
There are growing concerns about worsening drought conditions in the eastern Horn of Africa, as the October-November-December (OND) 2024 rainy season ended with below-average rainfall in Somalia and parts of northeastern Kenya and southern Ethiopia. The upcoming March-April-May (MAM) 2025 season will likely be drier and hotter than normal.
OND 2024 season recap
In most of southern and central Somalia, Deyr rains started late and had poor spatial and temporal distribution. OND 2024 rainfall totals were below average in many of these areas (Figure 1-left). Southern regions of Bay and Juba received about 60% of average rainfall amounts. Central and eastern regions of Hiraan and Shabelle received as low as 30% of average precipitation in OND. Poor OND rainfall performance, due to low totals or poor distribution, has also impacted portions of southern Ethiopia– in southern Oromiya (Borena zone) and Woredas in Somali region bordering Kenya and Somalia– and central, eastern, and northeastern Kenya. In Kenya, areas such as Marsabit, Mandera, and Wajir received only 30% to 45% of average rainfall between October 1st and December 31st.
According to a FAO SWALIM report from January 29th, these conditions resulted in widespread crop failures in Somalia, especially in rainfed agricultural areas. Farmers reported reduced planting areas and poor yields. SWALIM also reported that some water points had dried up earlier than usual, and that inadequate pasture and water was beginning to negatively impact livestock.
Since mid-2024, there have been concerns about below-average rains during the OND 2024 short rains season due to forecasts for La Niña and possible negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which often suppress OND rainfall in the eastern Horn. Disruptions to onshore winds and moisture transports materialized, associated with negative IOD index values, especially during mid-October to mid-late November. Substantial rains remained farther north than usual into October, with above-average amounts in central and northern Ethiopia, and also in portions of southeastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia. Dry and hot conditions during October in the eastern Horn of Africa disrupted crop planting. Conditions improved during November. In late November, much of Kenya and southern Somalia received above-average rainfall when an intraseasonal, transient mode of tropical rainfall (the Madden-Julian Oscillation, MJO) was active over the region. Conditions quickly degraded in December with below-average rainfall across much of Kenya and southwestern Somalia, culminating in a season with generally poor conditions, and limited time for crop growth and maturation.
Recent and forecast conditions
During recent weeks, from December 26th to January 25th, rainfall was below average across southern East Africa– Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi– and in southwestern Ethiopia (Figure 1 middle-left). Late in January, western Kenya, Nairobi area, and northern Tanzania received above-average rains. Below-average rains are forecast to continue in early February for most of East Africa, except for in western Kenya and portions of northern, central and southern Tanzania where wetter conditions are forecast. Above-average rains could negatively impact harvesting activities.
During March-April-May (MAM) 2025, the 69th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (Figure 1 middle-right), the NMME and WMO multi-model ensembles and the UCSB CHC Western V Gradient-based forecasts, all predict higher-than-normal chances of below-normal rainfall in central, northern, eastern and coastal Kenya, southern Somalia, and northern, central, and southern Ethiopia. These regions are highly dependent on MAM rains for rainfed agriculture and pastoral activities. There is more disagreement among forecasts and higher uncertainty for western areas of the region.
Current weak La Niña conditions- a driving factor in the pessimistic outlooks- will likely continue during February to April 2025 (a 59% chance, according to IRI/CPC) and then return to a neutral ENSO state. Forecast extremely warm conditions in the western Pacific Ocean will likely enhance or prolong La Niña’s impacts, as demonstrated by prior research. Below-normal MAM rainfall (Figure 1-right, orange circles) has often occurred in eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, and southeastern Ethiopia during or after recent prolonged La Niña events with warm western Pacific ‘Western V’ index conditions during MAM. The current situation is rather unique, with associated uncertainty, due to the late development of this event combined with the extremely warm forecast for the Western V during MAM 2025 (Figure 1-right, red symbol). MJO events can also influence seasonal rains but are not predicted well this far in advance. Based on historical outcomes during previous strong Pacific gradient conditions in recent decades, a below-normal rainfall outlook is warranted.
These convergent, pessimistic MAM rainfall outlooks are concerning for areas across eastern East Africa and raise concerns about the elevated risks of back-to-back poor rainfall seasons in Somalia, which would have substantial and long-lasting negative impacts on the availability of food, water, and pasture in 2025.
Figure 1. October-December (OND) 2024 rainfall, recent rainfall anomaly, and rainfall and sea surface temperature forecasts for March-May (MAM) 2025. Left: Percent of average rainfall for October 1st to December 31st, 2024. Based on the 1981-2023 CHIRPS average. From CHC Early Estimates. Middle-left: Rainfall difference from average for December 26th, 2024, to January 25th, 2025. Based on CHIRPS preliminary for January 2025. Middle-right: Seasonal forecast for March to May (MAM) 2025 rainfall, from the 69th Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 69). GHACOF 69 was held on Jan. 21st, 2025, by IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), in collaboration with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services across the region, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and other international partners. Seasonal forecasts from 9 global producing centers were used to develop the outlook. Source: ICPAC. Right: NMME ensemble mean forecasts for MAM 2025 sea surface temperatures in western and central-eastern areas of the Pacific Ocean (the ‘Western V’ and Nino3.4 regions, respectively), presented as Z scores. In January 2025, the NMME models predicted extremely warm Western V SST (+1.5Z ± 0.5Z) and moderately below-average Nino3.4 SST (-0. 5Z ± 0.6Z) for MAM season. Small red circles delineate 80th percentile confidence intervals. Orange (blue) colors indicate below-normal (above-normal) MAM rainfall outcomes in eastern Kenya, southeastern Ethiopia, and Somalia. Green crosshairs show years after 2000 with prolonged La Niña conditions (the event was active during the preceding OND season).
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals finalized in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic, and harvesting of second season rice finalized in Nigeria. Along the Sahel, harvesting of main season cereals is also complete or nearing completion in Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, and Burkina Faso. Additionally, second season rice is in the vegetative to reproductive stage in Mauritania and Mali. Throughout West Africa, conditions are mostly favourable for the end of the season. Despite mixed rainfall outcomes this season, including overly wet conditions along the Sahel and overly dry conditions along the Gulf of Guinea for the June to September period, yield outcomes are generally expected to be near-average. However, localized areas were impacted by heavy rainfall and flooding in Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria and Cameroon. Additionally, yield declines are expected in northern Ghana, which was impacted by a prolonged dry spell in July and August, as well as in areas impacted by persistent conflict and socio-economic concerns, including central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, northern Nigeria, southwestern Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. According to the Regional System for the Prevention and Management of Food Crises (PREGEC)’s Key Message updated in December 2024, cereal production for the 2024/2025 season is estimated at 78.9 million metric tonnes, representing a 2 percent increase compared to the previous season and a 5 percent increase compared to the last five-year average.
In Sierra Leone, a delayed rainy season and erratic rainfall distribution affected planting and crop yields in some regions. Conversely, heavy rains from August to November caused localized flooding and minor crop losses, but generally near-average cumulative rainfall supported crop development in many areas. The 2024 aggregate cereal production is forecast to be 14 percent above the five-year average, driven by enhanced government support under the Feed Salone Strategy, including seeds, fertilizers, and mechanization services. In southern and central bimodal rainfall areas of Cote d’Ivoire, generally favourable weather supported yields, though dry spells from August to mid-September caused localized production shortfalls. In northern unimodal rainfall areas, erratic rainfall distribution led to reduced yields in some areas, particularly Savanes District located in the north-central. Overall, 2024 aggregate cereal production is forecast to be 7 percent above-average. In Senegal, most areas experienced a timely rainfall onset and adequate cumulative rainfall amounts from June to October. However, early season dryness and mid-August to early September rainfall deficits affected planting and crop development in parts of Kaffrine, Tambacounda, Kolda, and Saint-Louis regions, leading to localized production shortfalls, while flooding in northern and eastern areas caused minor crop losses. The 2024 aggregate cereal production is forecast to be 8 percent above-average. In Mali, a late rainy season and below-average precipitation in May and June negatively impacted yields in southern areas. Conversely, heavy rains from July to October caused flooding and crop losses, impacting rice production in Ségou, Mopti, and Koulikoro regions, while conflict and limited access to inputs further reduced yields in central and northern areas. The 2024 aggregate cereal production is forecast to be 3 percent below-average. In Burkina Faso, delayed rains affected initial planting and crop emergence, but average to above-average precipitation received between July and October benefitted replanting efforts and crop development. Government support, such as improved seeds, fertilizers, free ploughing services, and lowland agricultural development, boosted yields and expanded planting areas, though ongoing conflict in the north hindered productivity. Overall, 2024 aggregate cereal production is expected to be 3 percent above-average.
Middle East & North Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across the Middle East and North Africa, winter wheat is now in the vegetative to reproductive stage in all regions, including Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and harvesting will commence in April. Overall conditions are mixed as continuing dry conditions are impacting Morocco, most of Algeria, central-west and northern Tunisia, Lebanon, Syria, and northern Iraq. Below-average rains are forecast to continue across east and western areas of the region through April, and likely higher than normal spring 2025 temperatures increase the risk of heat and moisture stress (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). Conversely, recent rains improved conditions in northeastern Algeria, though widespread flooding is now causing concern in northwestern Libya. Elsewhere, growing conditions are favourable.
In Morocco, cumulative rainfall has been well below-average since the start of the winter wheat and barley season in November 2024, particularly in cereal production areas of the Atlantic coast as well as in the Oriental region located in the northeast. Crop biomass is below-average and has reached near-record lows in some areas, particularly in Doukkala-Abda, Oriental, Chaouia, and Marrakech regions. Only irrigated areas of Gharb, Tanger-Tetouan, and the north of Taza have adequate crop development. However, the fill rate of the Al Massira dam, the second largest dam which provides irrigation for Doukkala and Chaouia, is currently less than 2 percent. Dry conditions are expected to continue through April (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10), with likely negative impacts to harvest outcomes which would compound well below-average production in 2022 and 2024 and below-average production in 2023. In Algeria, rainfall improvements benefitted some areas in early January, particularly in the northeast. However, rainfall deficits in November and December worsened conditions elsewhere in the country, with below-average biomass in most parts of the country and record low biomass in the west, including Tlemcen, Mascara, Saida, and Relizane regions. Conversely, conditions remain favourable in the northeast and parts of the central. In Tunisia, irregular rainfall since the start of the season in October 2024 has resulted in a rainfall deficit and below-average biomass in the central-west (Le Kef and Siliana governorates) and in the north (Beja, Jendouba, and Manouba governorates). Elsewhere, biomass is near to above-average due to good rains received in mid-January. In Libya, low rainfall amounts continue to impact crops in the northeast. Conversely, heavy rainfall in early December resulted in widespread flooding across many northwestern areas, particularly Tarhuna, Bani Waleed, Ghiryan, Qasr Akhyar, Ain Zara, Garabolli, and Tajoura. In Egypt, harvesting of second season rice finalized under favourable conditions. The rice harvest for 2024 finalized in October and November with no major disruptions during the growing period, and planting for the 2025 season is expected to begin in April and May.
In Syria, low rainfall in December resulted in below-average crop biomass, particularly in the main producing north (Hassakeh, Raqqa, and Aleppo governorates), central (Idleb, Hama, and Dayr Az Zor governorates), and south. Forecast drier than normal conditions through April will likely reduce production outcomes (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). Additionally, a coalition led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) seized control of key areas in December 2024, including Damascus, and ousted Bashar al-Assad's regime, which had held power since 2000. This power shift follows years of conflict that began in 2011 between rebel forces and the Syrian government. The political transition is expected to be protracted, raising uncertainty for the agricultural sector in 2025. In Iraq, winter wheat and barley crop biomass is below-average in the north (Ninewa, Dahuk, Erbil) due to a rainfall deficit in December and January, and dry conditions are expected to persist through April (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). Elsewhere, biomass is near-average as crops were less impacted by the dry conditions. In Iran, rainfall has been below-average since November 2024 across most areas, except in the north-west. However, the biomass of winter wheat and barley is close to average in the main producing provinces. Drier than average conditions are expected to continue in the coming months (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10), and production outcomes will depend on irrigation use.
Regional Outlook: Below-average winter and spring rainfall forecast for parts of North Africa and the Middle East
Poor seasonal rainfall performance was observed in western and eastern areas into late January 2025, and forecasts indicate that below-normal rains may continue during the next several months. Severe to moderate rainfall deficits developed during November 1st, 2024, to January 25th, 2025, in Morocco, northern Algeria, Tunisia, northeastern Libya, northern Egypt, Syria, northern and eastern Iraq, and Iran (Figure 1-left). Portions of Morocco, Algeria, western Tunisia, and southwestern and northeastern Iran received 30 to 45 percent of average rainfall amounts. The dry conditions have contributed to below-average vegetation productivity, based on below-average NDVI during December and January in Morocco, Algeria, and in portions of western Tunisia and northern Libya.
As of January 30th, the 15-day GEFS and ECMWF models predict below-average rains in northern Egypt, northern Libya, and the Middle East. Meanwhile, northern areas of Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia are forecast to receive above-average rains and cool temperatures during that period.
The ongoing dry conditions, and elevated chances of below-normal February to April 2025 rainfall in western and eastern areas (Figure 1-middle) raise concerns for impacts to water resources and spring soil moisture levels. According to NASA’s NMME-based soil moisture forecasts (Figure 1-right), there are high chances of below-normal root zone soil moisture conditions during April 2025 in Morocco, Tunisia, northern Algeria, northeast Libya, and the Middle East.
Spring 2025 temperatures are forecast to be above-normal in North Africa and the Middle East. Higher temperatures in spring would increase the risks of heat and moisture stress in crops, and more quickly evaporate soil moisture and surface water resources. In 2024, Morocco recorded one of the lowest surface water levels globally, according to the 2024 Global Monitor Water report. Prolonged drought and high temperatures led to significant water declines and vegetation stress, impacting crop production. Looking ahead, the WMO, C3S, and NMME ensembles all predict elevated chances of below-normal rainfall in Morocco, northern Algeria, and the Middle East. Some models also predict below-average rains in northern Libya and northern and central Egypt but there is substantial uncertainty at this time.
Figure 1. Seasonal precipitation anomaly, a 3-month probabilistic precipitation forecast, and a probabilistic soil moisture forecast for April 2025. Left: A CHC Early Estimate, which compares recent precipitation totals to the 1981-2023 CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. This panel shows the percent of average precipitation for November 1st 2024 to January 25, 2025 using CHIRPS preliminary data for January 1st to 25th. Middle: WMO probabilistic forecast for FMA 2025 precipitation tercile, based on models initialized in January, from the WMO Lead Center Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Right: Probabilistic forecast for April 2025 root zone soil moisture tercile, from the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System’s FLDAS forecast. The FLDAS forecast uses CHIRPS and MERRA-2 reanalysis data through December 2024 and forecasted meteorological conditions for January to April 2025 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the GEOSv2 model.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Southern Africa, 2025 main season cereals are mostly in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from February. Overall conditions are mixed, with dry concerns expanding to southeast and eastern Angola, northwestern Namibia, central and southern northeastern Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, central and southern Mozambique, much of Madagascar, and central-western South Africa. There are also emerging dry conditions in localized parts of southwestern Lesotho. Low precipitation since October has resulted in large rainfall deficits, and above-average temperatures in December exacerbated soil moisture deficits. Additionally, critically low water levels of the Kariba Dam and Cahora Bassa Dam are significantly inhibiting power supply, particularly in Zambia and Zimbabwe where widespread loadshedding is disrupting agricultural activities and livelihoods. Forecast dry conditions across central and southern areas through mid-February will likely be followed by possible wetter than normal conditions in eastern areas through April (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13-14).
The Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclone season, which typically extends from mid-November through April, continued with the passage of intense tropical cyclone Chido on December 15, making landfall in Cabo Delgado province located in northeastern Mozambique. The storm brought heavy rains and winds of similar intensity to Cyclones Gombe in 2022 and Freddy in 2023. Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa are the most impacted provinces, and the remnants of the storm also affected Malawi and Tete province in western Mozambique on December 16 before dissipating in Zimbabwe on December 17. Then on January 11, tropical cyclone Dikeledi passed over the far northern area of Madagascar on January 11 before crossing over the Mozambique Channel and making landfall on January 13 at the tropical cyclone stage in northeastern Mozambique, impacting Nampula, Cabo Delgado, and Zambezia provinces. The storm then continued southward, with strong winds and severe thunderstorms impacting Sofala and Manica provinces on January 15 and 16. Furthermore, African armyworm has been reported in parts of Malawi and northeastern Zimbabwe, while Fall armyworm has been observed in Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Namibia’s Zambezi region, and parts of Zambia have been affected by both types of pests.
In southeastern Angola, cumulative rainfall has been below-average with poor rainfall and high temperatures since December. From late January to February, above-average rains are expected in the central region while below-average rains are expected to continue in the south (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13-14). In Botswana, growing conditions are mostly favourable, and some eastern areas received the wettest October to December rainfall on record (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13-14). In Zimbabwe, November rainfall was near-normal but unevenly distributed, and lingering low soil moisture from severe drought in early 2024 is particularly affecting key producing northeastern provinces. In the south, above-average rain was received from mid-December to mid-January; however, these areas have since received below-average rainfall which is forecast to continue into mid-February (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13-14). The government is also supporting the 2024/25 cropping season with agricultural input subsidies to support farmers’ access to essential inputs amid persisting inflation rates. In Zambia, dry spells and high temperatures in December resulted in crop stress and wilting, and replanting efforts are underway.
In Malawi, planting of the 2025 summer cereal crops has been delayed in several key producing central and northern districts due to late and below-average rains coupled with high temperatures, which may have hindered early crop development. Forecast average to above-average rainfall through April could benefit crop growth (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13-14), though elevated temperatures and potential flooding in key maize producing regions pose moderate risks. In Mozambique, the country is contending with compounding challenges of drought in central and southern areas, recent storm impacts, and persistent conflict in the northeast. Dry and hot conditions in December were followed by heavy rainfall from cyclones Chido and Dikeledi, though seasonal totals remain below-average across much of the country. Above-average rainfall is forecast through mid-February across the north, and tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next several weeks in the Mozambique Channel (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13-14). In Madagascar, planting of the 2025 main season paddy crop has been delayed in the key producing central and eastern regions as well as in the south due to persistent below-average rainfall since November 2024 and higher-than-average temperatures, with eastern areas particularly affected by severe rainfall deficits. Late planting is expected to shorten the paddy growth cycle, and forecasts indicate continued low rainfall in the southern half of the country through mid-February. Conversely, Cyclone Chido improved early-season soil moisture in some areas despite localized damage, while Cyclone Dikeledi brought heavy rains in January. Cyclone formation remains an additional threat through April (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13-14). In South Africa, growing conditions are mostly favourable following widespread above-normal rainfall received from late December through early January. However, recent dry and hot conditions negatively affected crops in central-western areas where a large portion of the white maize crop is produced. Rain and cooler weather will be needed soon for adequate crop recovery. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of main season maize is nearing completion in the central and central-east while planting of second season maize continues in the central and southeast. Overall conditions remain favourable despite below-average cumulative rainfall received, with some areas receiving the lowest amounts on record. Heavy rains returned over parts of Maniema located in the central region from mid-January to early February, which could impact harvesting activities.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Forecast dry conditions across central and southern areas likely followed by wetter than normal conditions in eastern areas through April
In many areas, storms in January 2025 brought relief after a drier and hotter-than-average December in Zambia, northern and eastern Zimbabwe, southeastern Angola, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, and southern South Africa (Figure 1-left panels). In impacted central-northern and eastern locations, December 2024 rainfall was less-than 30 to 75 percent of average and maximum temperatures were the hottest on record (1981-2024) for December. Some locations in central and southern Mozambique, southern-central South Africa, and southern Madagascar continued to experience more hot days (> 35 °C) than usual into January. Rainfall and temperature conditions improved in recent weeks (Figure 1-right panels). Central-northern and eastern areas received average to above-average rainfall during mid-late January.
The hot temperatures in December likely added to negative impacts from the below-average rainfall during this time, such as faster drying of soils or crop stress from the heat. According to a SADC Agromet report, a late onset of rainfall in some areas including southern Angola, eastern Madagascar, and northern Namibia is likely to reduce cropping area. In areas where precipitation was timely, dry spells and high temperatures in December led to crop stress, with some regions like Malawi reporting crop wilting and replanting efforts.
Figure 1. Rainfall and maximum temperature anomalies for December 2024, and during recent weeks extending into late January 2025. Left: Rainfall anomaly (mm) for December 1st to 31st, 2024. Based on the difference from the 1981-2023 CHIRPS average. Middle-left: Average daily maximum temperatures for December 1st to 31st, 2024, shown as the difference from average (1991-2020). Stippling shows locations where this value was higher than any previous values for the same time period, back to 1981. Data is from the CHIRTS-ERA5 Tmax product, which uses ECMWF ERA5 operational and CHIRTSmax monthly historical data. Middle-right: Same as left panel, but for the period from December 26th, 2024, to January 25th, 2025. Right: Same as the middle-left panel, but for January 1st to 24th, 2025. Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center.
Despite the recent improved conditions, seasonal rainfall totals from October 1st to January 25th (Figure 2-left) remain below average (75-90% of average) for many central-northern areas, including in parts of Zambia, Angola, Malawi, and northern Zimbabwe that were impacted by the 2023-2024 drought. Very low Lake Kariba water levels started to increase, but as of January 27th the reservoir is only at 6% of capacity, and load shedding has continued to impact power users.
Northern and eastern areas of Madagascar have received only 60 to 75% of average rainfall from October to late January. In Mozambique rainfall totals are average to below-average. In southern Zimbabwe, Botswana, northeastern South Africa, above-average seasonal totals are largely due to wet conditions between mid-December and mid-January; these areas have since received below-average rainfall.
According to weather forecasts, there will likely be an expansion of areas with moderate seasonal rainfall deficits. A relatively dry pattern is forecast for the next two weeks, across central and southern areas from January 30th through February 13th, 2025 (Figure 2-middle), according to GEFS and ECMWF models. This could be helpful in areas impacted by recent heavy rains in Zimbabwe and Mozambique. Northeastern South Africa, eSwatini, Botswana, Namibia, and portions of southern Angola may experience a multi week stretch of below-average rains from mid-January.
Above-average rains are forecast for January 30th to February 13th in northern and eastern Madagascar, northern Mozambique, Malawi, and central Angola. As of February 3rd, Tropical Storm Faida over the South Indian Ocean is tracking west and is forecast to impact Madagascar. Recently, Tropical Cyclones Chido (December 2024) and Dikeledi (January 2025) brought heavy rains, resulting in damaging floods, displacement, and fatalities in parts of Madagascar, Mozambique, Malawi, Comoros, Mauritius, and Mayotte in the Indian Ocean. Tropical storm activity is expected over the next few weeks (40-60% chance) in the Mozambique Channel and the southwestern Indian Ocean, potentially affecting Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar, which could cause crop damage. According to a SADC Regional Climate Outlook report, areas of north and central Madagascar are forecast to receive normal rainfall with increased chances of above-normal rainfall during February to April.
Long-range model forecasts for February to April 2025 rainfall indicate possible wetter-than-normal conditions in eastern areas (Figure 1-right). According to the CPC/IRI ENSO outlook, current La Niña conditions are forecast to persist into April 2025 (59% chance). Typically, La Niñas are associated with higher chances of above-normal rainfall in Southern Africa. Forecast warmer-than-normal Indian Ocean temperatures may enhance rainfall during storms. The long-range models overall do not support a confident outlook, and short range forecasts should be monitored.
Figure 2. A seasonal precipitation anomaly, a 15-day precipitation anomaly forecast, and a 3-month probabilistic precipitation forecast. Left: A CHC Early Estimate, which compares recent precipitation totals to the 1981-2023 CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. This panel shows the rainfall anomaly (%) for October 1st, 2024, to January 25th, 2025. Based on preliminary CHIRPS for January 2025. Middle: Forecast next 15-day precipitation anomaly, based on the Jan. 30th, 2025, GEFS forecast that is bias-adjusted to CHIRPS (CHIRPS-GEFS). Right: Probabilistic forecast for February to April 2025 precipitation tercile, using North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models (January initial conditions). Colors indicate the forecast probability of each category, based on 124 ensemble members from 7 models. White areas are where there is a high level of disagreement amongst forecasts.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing Winter Wheat conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central and South Asia, winter wheat is planted and is mostly entering the dormancy stage throughout Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan while Rabi wheat planting operations continue in Pakistan. Conditions remain generally favourable except in exclusively rainfed areas of Punjab, Balochistan, and Sindh provinces in Pakistan where there are emerging drought concerns. Spring 2025 precipitation is forecast to be drier and warmer than normal for most areas, which could rapidly dry out soils and negatively impact spring cereals (See Regional Outlook Pg. 16).
In Afghanistan, winter wheat planting typically occurs from October to December and ends with the first snowfall. The 2024/25 season started with below-average precipitation which continued through the end of January 2025. As a result, cumulative October to December 2024 precipitation was generally below-average in most areas. However, the timing and distribution of precipitation was adequate to support the winter wheat planting process. Additionally, above-average precipitation was received in early January, including snowfall in mid and high elevation areas. The recent precipitation has improved snow water equivalent levels, which are above-average in most basins, and preserved soil moisture. Conditions have been upgraded to favourable as the recent rains and groundwater availability are supporting germination. Below-average rainfall is forecast for the peak of the winter wet season from February to March, and second season rice and maize crops may face water shortages (See Regional Outlook Pg. 16). In Pakistan, harvesting of Kharif (summer) season rice finalized in January under favourable conditions, and planting of Rabi season wheat is just beginning under mixed conditions. Rainfall has been below-normal across the country from September through mid-January, with large deficits observed in Punjab, Balochistan, and Sindh provinces as of late January. Exclusively rainfed (Barani) areas, which account for about 10 percent of total wheat sowings, have been negatively affected by low rainfall, particularly in northern Punjab, southwestern Balochistan, and southeastern Sindh. Elsewhere, growing conditions remain favourable due to adequate irrigation water availability. However, planted area for wheat is expected to be slightly reduced compared to the previous year due to low domestic prices and the government’s decision to discontinue the guaranteed support price for wheat.
Regional Outlook: Below-average winter and spring season precipitation is forecast across much of Central and South Asia
Below-average precipitation for October 2024 to late January 2025, and pessimistic model forecasts for late winter and spring raise concerns for the rainfed and spring wheat growing seasons. La Niña conditions have negatively impacted these areas in recent years. La Niña is currently active and is forecast to continue during the next several months (83% chances for Jan-Mar and 59% for Feb-Apr 2025, based on CPC/IRI Official ENSO forecast).
Seasonal rainfall totals, from October 1st, 2024, to January 25th, 2025, were below average (60-75% of average) in central and southern areas, and above average in northern areas (Figure 1-left). During December 26th to January 25th, precipitation was variable, with periods of above-average conditions in southeastern areas of the region and central Afghanistan and very dry conditions in early-mid January. Overall, preliminary CHIRPS data indicates that precipitation in most areas was below-average. Continuation of below-normal precipitation could pose challenges for crop production, the livestock sector, and annual snowpack development. There are higher-than-normal chances of poor spring and winter wheat yields, and spring wheat may be more strongly impacted, based on the Afghanistan Food Security and Agro-Climate Monitoring Report.
During late January to early February, moderate precipitation is forecast across southern areas and into eastern Kazakhstan. However, precipitation amounts will be substantially lower than average in Afghanistan and southern portions of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan, based on a CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from January 30th.
Snow water amounts were below average for Afghanistan and nearby areas in late January (Figure 1, middle-left). Snow conditions are currently better than they were last year at this time, but a good snow year is needed after the previously low past five years. There are several months ahead during which substantial storms could improve conditions. These storms are difficult to predict at long range. Based on seasonal climate forecasts, there are substantial chances that the 2024-2025 snow season could end with below-average snowpack from low precipitation and faster melt during an especially warm spring. This would have negative implications for groundwater recharge and lead to higher extraction rates.
February to July 2025 will most likely be drier and warmer than normal, according to NMME and C3S ensemble forecasts. In southern and western-central areas, NMME models predict there are 50 to higher-than 60 percent chances of below-normal February to April 2025 precipitation (Figure 1, middle-right). Forecasts for the tail end of the spring precipitation season, from May to July 2025, show stronger odds of below-normal rains across southern areas (Figure 1-right). This highlights the possibilities of low and inconsistent rain events and an early end to spring precipitation season in southern areas.
Spring will likely also be warmer than normal in central and southern areas according to NMME models. NMME models predict that these are three times as likely to occur during Spring 2025 than in the past. Soil moisture conditions are in a better state than last year at this time, however, the forecast heat could more rapidly dry out soils. This could increase stress on rainfed crops if spring rainfall is inconsistent.
Figure 1. A season precipitation anomaly outlook and 3-month probabilistic precipitation forecasts. Left: A CHC Early Estimate, which compares recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average, for respective accumulation periods. This panel shows the percent of average precipitation for November 1st 2024 to January 25, 2025 using CHIRPS preliminary data for January 1st to 25th and a 1981/82-2023/24 average. Middle-left: Variations in regional Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (mm) for a region surrounding Afghanistan. The dotted line indicates the average SWE from 2002-2024. Blue line shows the average SWE in 2024 (Oct. 2023 - Sep. 2024). Red line shows SWE in 2025. From NASA, using SWE estimates from the FLDAS Central Asia model. Middle-right: Probabilistic forecast for February 2025 to April 2025 precipitation tercile, based on January initial conditions. Right: Probabilistic forecast for May to July 2025 precipitation tercile. Probabilities are derived from forecasts from seven North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models (January initial conditions). Colors indicate the forecast probability of each category, based on 124 ensemble members from 7 models and a 1991-2020 baseline. White indicates a high level of disagreement amongst forecasts.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, harvesting of wet-season rice is now underway, and good weather conditions are expected to contribute to favourable yields. In Indonesia, the final planted area is expected to increase due to significant rainfall received from late December to mid-January. In northern Southeast Asia, planting of dry-season rice is underway in most areas, with the exception of the northern half of Viet Nam where winter crops are being harvested. The total planted area of dry-season rice in the north is expected to increase compared to the previous season due to sufficient irrigation water availability for rice cultivation. Crops are mostly in the growing stage under favourable conditions, except in Viet Nam where saltwater intrusion into the Mekong Delta is limiting water availability for agriculture. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh, conditions are mixed due to flooding impacts in parts of northeastern Sri Lanka and eastern Bangladesh.
In Indonesia, January is the fourth month of wet-season rice planting, which has reached 4.3 million hectares representing a 16 percent increase from the previous season due to significant rainfall received from late December to mid-January. Conditions remain favourable for crops in the vegetative and early generative stages with adequate irrigation water supply. Harvesting of earlier planted wet-season rice is underway, and sufficient sunlight received during the growing period is expected to result in favourable yield outcomes. In Malaysia, planting of wet-season rice is nearing completion, and 75 percent of the cultivation areas were successfully planted as of January and are expected to be completed by February. From December 6 to 9, storms, heavy rains, and strong winds exacerbated flooding and caused extensive damage to critical infrastructure. However, overall growing conditions remain favourable, and most areas are expected to receive near-normal rainfall in the coming weeks. Additionally, harvesting of earlier planted wet-season rice is now underway, and 9 percent of the planted area has been harvested. In Brunei, overall conditions are favourable for wet-season rice with average precipitation and temperatures received. In irrigated areas, crops are in the reproductive to ripening stage, and harvesting will commence at the end of January. In rainfed areas, crops are in the grain filling stage for harvest from February.
In the Philippines, dry-season rice planted from November to December 2024 is now in the tillering to young panicle forming stage, and growing conditions are generally favourable with most areas expected to receive near-normal rainfall in the coming weeks. A recent tropical depression and shear line brought continuous rains that caused flooding in Southern Luzon and Mindanao provinces, but no significant crop damage was reported. In Thailand, the total planted area for dry-season rice has reached 1.2 million hectares accounting for 58 percent of the national plan, and the final planted area is expected to increase 18 percent compared to the previous season due to favourable planting conditions and a good market price for rice. Crops are mostly in the tillering stage under favourable conditions, and yield is expected to increase due to sufficient water availability and good weather outcomes. In late November and December, the Northeast Monsoon continued to bring heavy rainfall and flooding to southern areas of the country, which benefitted irrigation water supply. In northern Viet Nam, planting of dry-
season (winter-spring) rice is not yet underway due to the ongoing cultivation of winter season crops. In the south, dry-season (winter-spring) rice is in the sowing stage, and there is concern as saltwater intrusion along the Mekong Delta is expected to result in a shortage of agricultural water. The current sown area is 1.42 million hectares, of which 1.27 million hectares are sown in the Mekong Delta. In Laos, land preparation and seeding of dry-season rice is now underway with favourable conditions. The current planted area has reached 21 thousand hectares, representing 23 percent of the national plan of 93 thousand hectares. In Myanmar, planting of dry-season rice continues, and most crops are now in the early vegetative growth stages under favourable conditions. The current planted area has reached 490 thousand hectares accounting for 42 percent of the national plan of 1.17 million hectares. Planting progress is similar to last year, and the final planted area may increase compared to last year due to better irrigation water availability and good weather outcomes. In Cambodia, the total planted area of dry-season rice reached 815 thousand hectares, representing a 9 percent increase compared to the last season, and 5 percent of the planted area has been harvested. Crops are mostly in the grain filling to harvesting stage under favourable conditions with good weather and sufficient sunlight levels. Additionally, the yield is expected to be 4.6 tons per hectare, which is near-average and slightly higher than last season.
In Sri Lanka, Maha season maize (90 percent of annual maize output) and rice (65 percent of annual rice output) crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and conditions are mixed due to storm impacts in the northeast. In late November, Storm Fengal brought heavy rainfall and strong winds to Eastern, Northeastern, North Central, and Northern provinces. The flooding was also exacerbated by the release of water from medium sized reservoirs that resulted in flash flooding. An estimated 390,000 acres of crops were submerged. In Nepal, harvesting of rice, the country’s main staple crop, finalized under favourable conditions while winter wheat crops continue to develop for harvest from March. Land preparation for main season maize is underway, and planting will begin in February. In Bangladesh, harvesting of Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice production) finalized in December under generally favourable conditions. While eastern regions were impacted by significant flooding in August 2024, production is expected to be above-average due to high yields in non-affected areas. The aggregate paddy production in 2024 is forecast at an above‑average level of 60.2 million tonnes. Planting and development of main season cereals, including Boro season rice (55 percent of annual rice production), winter/Rabi season maize, and winter wheat, continues under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 (Segunda) conditions as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, harvesting of Segunda/Postrera season maize and bean crops finalized in January under mostly favourable conditions, except in some localized areas and for subsistence farmers in Honduras. This season, a combination of erratic rainfall outcomes, hot temperatures, and storm impacts contributed to poor end of season conditions for some localized areas, particularly for subsistence farmers in Honduras. In Honduras as well as in Izabal department located in the central-east of Guatemala, subsistence farmers were particularly affected by the passage of Tropical Storm Sara in November and experienced significant crop losses. Farmers also reported marginal losses related to pest and disease outbreaks. Additionally, severe water deficits affected more than 40 percent of cropland in Santa Barbara located in the central-west of Honduras. In Nicaragua, vegetation conditions are below-average in Rio San Juan department located in the south of the country, likely due to flooding in late 2024. Elsewhere in the region, including in the major production areas, final conditions are favourable.
In Haiti, second season rice and Hiver season bean crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage with concern as flooding in late November and early December damaged croplands in Nord, Nord-Ouest, Sud, and Grand'Anse departments. More than 80 percent of bean and other crops were destroyed in the Nord and Nord-Ouest, and 75 percent of farms in the plain areas of the Grand’Anse department were destroyed. Pest and disease outbreaks have also been reported by farmers in some areas. In Cuba, planting of main season maize and second season rice (1/3 of annual rice production) continues under watch conditions due to the potential impacts of hurricanes and earthquakes in late October and early November 2024.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published February 6th, 2025.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.