Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 116: Published June 4th, 2026
Conditions as of May 28th
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Overview
In East Africa, conditions remain mostly favourable for main season cereals in the north while dry conditions are impacting parts of the south, particularly in Somalia where below-average yields are expected.
In West Africa, overall conditions remain generally favourable for the start of the 2026/27 main season, except along parts of the Sahelian band experiencing delayed rains and in conflict-affected regions.
In the Middle East & North Africa, a dry start to the season was followed by abundant and well-distributed rains in many areas, and wheat prospects are generally favourable, except in western Libya and southern Iraq.
In Southern Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion under generally favourable conditions, and crops in northeastern South Africa recovered from previous dry concerns.
In Central & South Asia, overall yield prospects remain favourable for ongoing winter wheat harvesting and spring wheat planting.
In Southeast Asia, conditions are generally favourable for dry-season harvesting in the north and wet-season harvesting in the south. In southern Viet Nam, planting of wet-season rice is delayed due to prior harvesting delays.
In Central America & the Caribbean, there is concern for the start of the Primera season as erratic rains and high temperatures are delaying planting activities in many areas.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Conditions remain generally favourable for planting and development of main season crops in the north. Conversely, delayed and below-average rains are expected to reduce yields in Somalia, and dry concerns are impacting crops in parts of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and the United Republic of Tanzania. The June to September rainfall season is expected to be drier than normal in the west and north (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
WEST AFRICA: Planting and development of main season cereals continues under generally favourable agro-climatic conditions, except along parts of the Sahelian band experiencing delayed rainfall onset. Sahelian areas could experience a dry June to September period, and likely above-normal temperatures would exacerbate dry spells (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). Concern also remains in conflict-affected areas.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Winter wheat harvesting is underway with generally favourable yield prospects following abundant and well-distributed rains received this season, except in western Libya due to early season dry conditions and southern Iraq due to cultivation restrictions using surface water.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion under generally favourable conditions, except in parts of western Angola, southern Malawi, northeast and southern Mozambique, and southern Madagascar.
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Winter wheat harvesting is underway while spring wheat planting continues, and overall yield prospects remain favourable.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Conditions are generally favourable for dry-season rice and maize harvesting in the north and wet-season rice and maize harvesting in the south. However, dry-season maize production in the north is expected to decrease due to a reduction in the planted area and a slightly reduced yield in the Philippines. Forecasts indicate chances of below-normal rainfall over southern areas during the July to September period, associated with the forecast El Niño event (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 18).
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Planting for Primera season maize and bean crops is delayed across most areas due to erratic rains and high temperatures at the start of the season, and pests have been reported in some areas. A forecast shift to above-average rains in some areas through early June is likely to be followed by a continuation of dry and hot conditions for the remainder of the Primera season and the start of the Segunda season (See Regional Outlook Pg. 21).
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) shows a chance of above-average precipitation over the southeastern US, southern Mexico, central and southeastern Brazil, Bolivia, southeastern Peru, northern Paraguay, northern Chile, western Argentina, southern Finland, central Russian Federation, southwestern Türkiye, central Mozambique, eastern South Africa, Eswatini, northern and northwestern Kazakhstan, southeastern Kyrgyzstan, eastern Tajikistan, eastern India, southwestern and northeastern China, southern Japan, northern Myanmar, the northern Philippines, and south Australia.
There is also a risk of below-average precipitation over western Canada, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, northern Colombia, central Venezuela, northern and southern Brazil, northern Argentina, northwestern Uruguay, southern Chile, northern Spain, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, western and northern Germany, central Italy, northwestern Romania, southeastern Bulgaria, northern Türkiye, the southern Russian Federation, northern Algeria, southern Mauritania, Senegal, southern Mali, southwestern Cameroon, the southern Central African Republic, the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, southern Sudan, eastern South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, northern and southern Somalia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, northern Tanzania, western and southern India, Sri Lanka, northern China, western Mongolia, central and southern Thailand, central Viet Nam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, eastern Australia, and southern New Zealand.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 6 – 19 June, issued on 29 May 2026. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: El Niño Watch
Neutral ENSO conditions are present. El Niño conditions are forecast to quickly develop and persist through early 2027. There are 82% chances of El Niño conditions during May to July 2026, and 96% chances during December 2026 to February 2027, according to the May 2026 NOAA CPC ENSO outlook. The 2026–2027 El Niño will likely be at least of moderate strength by July to September 2026 (66% chance) and then become a strong or very strong event during October 2026 to January 2027 (~66 % chance). Confidence in current El Niño strength outlooks is limited by model forecast skill.
El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa, and southern and eastern China. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, parts of western and northern East Africa, the Sahel region, Southern Africa, India, Northern China, the Maritime Continent, and Australia.
Global temperatures for April 2026 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. The likelihood of extreme conditions during the coming year will increase as El Niño warms global temperatures.
During May, abnormally hot conditions occurred in western Europe, eastern East Africa, southeastern Southern Africa, and West Africa, Iran, Afghanistan, India, Cambodia, the Philippines, the southwestern United States, western Mexico, Central America, and elsewhere. During late May to late June, above-average temperatures are forecast in Canada, the northern United States, Central America, South America, Europe, central and eastern Asia, India, the Maritime Continent region, central Australia, and across much of Africa.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, Belg season maize is in the vegetative to reproductive stage in Ethiopia under mixed conditions due to dry concerns in eastern Oromia and restricted movement in Amhara and Tigray. Planting and development of main season cereals is underway in Ethiopia (Meher season), South Sudan, and Yemen, and overall conditions remain favourable for ongoing agricultural activities.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of second season rice finalized in central and western Kenya under favourable conditions. Additionally, harvesting of main season cereals is just beginning in unimodal regions of the United Republic of Tanzania, while planting and development continue in Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and bimodal regions of the United Republic of Tanzania under mixed conditions. In Somalia, conditions have been downgraded to poor due to the delayed and below-average April to June Gu rains. Additionally, dry conditions are causing concern in bimodal regions of Kenya, bimodal regions of Uganda, Rwanda, eastern Burundi, and northwestern areas of the United Republic of Tanzania. Elsewhere, agro-climatic conditions remain favourable with near-normal yields expected.
March to early May rainfall totals were characterized by an early onset and average to above-average amounts, except in south-central Somalia and southeastern Ethiopia, which experienced substantially below-average amounts. Despite wetter conditions received in early May, seasonal rainfall deficits remained across Somalia and east and southeastern Ethiopia. Additionally, a dry period from early to mid-April negatively impacted parts of Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. However, improved rains in late April benefited soil moisture and crop recovery in many of these areas. The June to September rainfall season is expected to be drier than normal, particularly in parts of central, northeast, and northwestern Ethiopia, southern South Sudan, and northern Uganda. Additionally, forecast higher than normal temperatures could exacerbate the dry impacts (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In South Sudan, planting and development of first season cereals continues under favourable conditions, and harvesting will begin in July. However, June to September rainfall is expected to be below average, particularly in the south (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). Additionally, limited input access may negatively impact agricultural outcomes this season. In Ethiopia, Belg season maize crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from June, and growing conditions are mixed. Conditions in the western Belg producing regions remain favourable, which received good rains throughout the season. Conversely, rainfall deficits are affecting eastern Oromia, and socio-economic challenges related to movement restrictions are affecting Amhara and Tigray regions. Additionally, land preparation and planting of Meher season cereals are just beginning under favourable conditions, with good rains received leading up to the start of the season. During past years with similar El Niño conditions, Meher season maize and sorghum yields were below normal in Ethiopia, with the largest losses in eastern Amhara, Tigray, and northeastern Oromia. Yield losses in western Ethiopia were less severe. At the national level, yields were 2 percent below normal on average, with possible deficits exceeding 10 to 15 percent. In Yemen, sorghum planting continues under favourable conditions along the coast and highlands. Above-average rainfall received in March and April benefitted agricultural activities and pasture conditions, though flood impacts occurred in localized areas. Additionally, rising global prices and regional instability are driving up fuel prices despite domestic attempts at price controls.
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, Gu season maize and sorghum crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from July. The start of the April to June Gu rains was delayed and below normal, and land preparation, wet planting, and seed germination were delayed in Bay region. Despite some rainfall improvement during March and April in parts of the south (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7), the prolonged dry conditions are expected to negatively impact yields, and conditions have been downgraded to poor. During past years with similar El Niño conditions, sorghum yields were normal to below normal in the major producing sorghum regions, and some forecasted yield anomalies are more than 40 percent below normal. In Kenya, harvesting of second season rice crops finalized in May under favourable conditions in the rice-growing areas of the centre and west. Planting and development of long rains crops is underway, and conditions in minor producing bimodal areas in the eastern half of the country have been downgraded to watch as crops were affected by a dry spell in April as well as higher than normal temperatures. Conversely, conditions in the major producing unimodal regions in the western half of the country remain favourable. The March to May long rains started early and were generally above average. The good rains mostly supported crop development but also resulted in flooding in some areas. In addition to the April dry spell over bimodal eastern areas, heavy rain in mid-April resulted in localized flooding in Mombasa and Kwale counties located in the southeast, resulting in agricultural losses for small-scale farmers. Above-average rains are expected to continue through June, followed by a likely transition to an El Niño in June and subsequent below-average rainfall amounts in western areas between June and September (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). Additionally, ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses a threat to trade flows and input costs. Imports of fertilizers have been delayed and disrupted timely application, particularly in the western parts of the country, and reduced application rates are expected to negatively impact yields. In Uganda, planting and development of main season cereals continues across the country under mixed conditions, with dry concerns impacting some bimodal areas. In bimodal areas of the centre, south, west, and parts of the north, the March to May rains began early with above-average amounts in March that generally supported crop germination and early development. Conversely, a shift to below-average amounts in April resulted in some deficits that could negatively influence yield outcomes. In localized areas around Lake Victoria, erratic temporal rainfall distribution is likely to result in production shortfalls. Additionally, planting began late in some northern bimodal areas due to the late acquisition of seeds and poor April rains, and harvests in these areas will occur later than normal. In the unimodal Karamoja region located in the northeast, the March to September rainy season began early with above-average amounts in February through March, followed by below-average rains in April that required some households to replant. The delay in sowing is also expected to result in a corresponding delay in the start of the harvest. Throughout the country, dry conditions are expected to remain through the end of the season due to the likely emergence of El Niño (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 7). Despite the expected rainfall reduction, overall cereal production for Karamoja is expected to be near average, particularly due to the use of drought-resistant cassava and sorghum crops and short-cycle maize and bean crops. Furthermore, fuel price increases are expected to continue due to escalating conflict in the Middle East. In Rwanda, season B maize and sorghum crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage with ongoing concern due to continuing rainfall deficits that are likely to reduce production. In Burundi, season B maize and rice crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and dry concerns remain in eastern areas of the country, while agro-climatic conditions are favourable in the west. Additionally, ongoing conflict in the Middle East is disrupting fuel and fertilizer inputs, resulting in agricultural and transportation disruptions and higher food prices. In the United Republic of Tanzania, harvesting of Masika (bimodal regions) and Msimu (unimodal regions) crops is underway, and conditions in the northwest have been downgraded to watch due to recent rainfall deficits. Elsewhere, agro-climatic conditions remain favourable.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Poor rainfall distribution during late March to mid-April 2026, drought continues in Somalia, and a forecast El Niño event brings risks to the region
During recent weeks, between April 26th and May 25th, rainfall conditions in East Africa were mixed. Above-average rains were observed across southern and southeastern Sudan, northeastern and southeastern South Sudan, northern Uganda, western and southwestern Kenya, Burundi, localized areas of northeastern Tanzania, southwestern Ethiopia, and central-southern Somalia. Conditions were drier than normal across northeastern and eastern Kenya, southern Uganda, southern and eastern Tanzania, much of Ethiopia, northwestern South Sudan, and northern Somalia (Figure 1). April to May was much hotter than normal across eastern East Africa in portions of central and southeastern Kenya, eastern Ethiopia and central-northern Somalia.
Rainfall forecasts during the next two weeks indicate average to below-average conditions across much of East Africa signaling rainfall cessation in the Genna/Gu/March to May rains receiving regions of Ethiopia, Somalia, and bimodal Kenya, according to the GEFS forecast from May 27th (Figure 1 middle-right). Both the GEFS and ECMWF forecasts indicate below-average rains in northern and western areas of East Africa. The ECMWF forecasts above-average rains in eastern Kenya, central-eastern Ethiopia and central-southern Somalia.
Seasonal totals for March to early June will likely be mixed, with prominent surplus areas in Kenya, western and northeastern Tanzania, northeastern and southern South Sudan and western and southwestern Ethiopia and below-average totals in some western and eastern areas of the region, based on preliminary data for May 1st-25th and a two-week unbiased GEFS forecast (Figure 1 top-middle).
Despite generally favorable cumulative seasonal totals in several regions, rainfall distribution throughout the season was irregular. Much of Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya experienced above-average rainfall in March, followed by below-average rainfall during April and mid May, according to CHIRPS data from March 1 to April 30 and preliminary estimates for May 1st–25th. This uneven temporal distribution has resulted in periods of moisture stress across many agricultural and pastoral areas despite near-average or above-average cumulative rainfall totals.
Conditions in Somalia have also been mixed. In southern Somalia, including parts of Lower Juba, Middle Juba, and Gedo, favorable rainfall during March and April supported improvements in soil moisture. However, substantial rainfall deficits persist in key agropastoral areas of Bay and Bakool, while dry conditions continue across much of central and northern Somalia.
Based on observed and forecast conditions, close monitoring of agroclimatic stress is needed in eastern Ethiopia and central-southern and northern Somalia, where season to date totals are less than 30 to 45 percent of average. In Somalia, consecutive poor seasons have negatively impacted agriculture and water resources. The impacts of severe drought, conflict, and high food prices have worsened the food insecurity crisis. As seasonal rains taper off in May, there is a credible risk of famine in the crop-dependent agropastoral areas of Bay, Bakool and Gedo regions between June and September (FEWS NET) where emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are ongoing (WFP).
During June to September (JJAS) 2026, increased chances of drier-than-normal conditions are forecast in western and northern regions. The pessimistic outlooks are largely due to El Niño conditions (Figure 1 bottom-right), which are developing and are forecast to strengthen during JJAS 2026. The C3S, NMME, and WMO ensemble forecasts point to below-average rains in eastern and southern South Sudan, central and southwestern Ethiopia and western Kenya. The WMO and NMME ensemble forecasts also point to below-average rains in Sudan. The GHACOF 73 forecast for June to September 2026 indicates 50 to 70 percent chances of below-average rains across many of these areas. While the rainfall impacts of El Niño events vary, in Ethiopia, negative rainfall impacts have often occurred in Kiremt season growing areas in the central-northern highlands, where large populations reside and below-normal rains can have substantial impacts on crop production, and in the arid northeast where poor JJAS rains severely reduce grazing pastures and critical water resources. More information is in the CHC Blog: What the 2026 El Niño may mean for Ethiopia’s June - September Kiremt Rainy Season.
Many areas will likely experience highly above-normal temperatures during the next several months, based on high forecast probabilities of 90th percentile temperatures and the tendency for above-normal temperatures during past El Niños in western and northern East Africa. According to the GHACOF 73 forecast for JJAS 2026, there are greater than 70 percent chances of above-normal temperatures in northern Sudan, eastern and western South Sudan, western and central-northern Ethiopia and parts of northwestern Kenya and northern Uganda. Based on forecast hot and dry conditions, close monitoring of agroclimatic conditions and water stress is recommended, as these are likely to negatively impact crops in early development stages, reproductive stages during dry spells, and fodder availability.
El Niño conditions are conducive for above-normal rainfall during the short rains/Deyr 2026 season, and a potentially strong El Niño with forecast positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions raises the chances of heavy rains. Above-normal rainfall is forecast in eastern Ethiopia and Somalia beginning in September, and across East Africa during October to December 2026.
Figure 1. The Top-left and Top-middle panels are CHC Early Estimates, which compare the April 26th to May 25th, 2026 (Top-left) and March 1st to June 10th (Top-middle) precipitation totals to the 1996–2025 CHIRPS averages for the same accumulation period. These panels use CHIRPS3 Preliminary for May 1–25, 2026. A bias-adjusted NCEP GEFS forecast (CHIRPS3-GEFS) is used for the 15-day forecast from April 26th. Top-right: Forecast next 15-day precipitation anomaly for May 27th to June 10th, from the CHIRPS3-GEFS forecast. Bottom-left: 73rd Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF73) June to September 2026 rainfall forecast. GHACOF 73 was held from 18 - 19 May 2026, organised by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre in collaboration with the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of the Greater Horn of Africa, the World Meteorological Organization, and other international partners. Bottom-right: The frequency of below-normal JJAS rainfall during years with concurrent El Niño conditions (1982, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2015, 2023), relative to 1991–2020 CHIRPS v3 terciles. In areas with orange to dark red colors, below-normal rains occurred in four to nine years (40 to 100%). Gray areas are typically dry during JJAS (mean rainfall < 50 mm). From UCSB CHC.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, development of main season cereals is underway across all countries, including Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Along the Sahel, harvesting of second season rice finalized in Mauritania, while planting is just beginning in central Nigeria. Additionally, planting of main season cereals is underway across Guinea-Bissau, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad. Agro-climatic conditions remain generally favourable for crop development throughout the subregion for the start of the 2026/27 cropping season, except in some Sahelian areas experiencing delayed rainfall onset. Based on CHIRPSv3 rainfall totals from March 1 to May 20, the southern part of the subregion, from southern Guinea to the Central African Republic, has received up to 300 mm of rainfall, with bimodal areas receiving between 300 mm and more than 600 mm. Conversely, rainfall totals are less than 75 mm in the Sahelian band, and delayed rains are disrupting planting operations in Guinea-Bissau, central Mali, central Chad, and northern Cameroon. While the impact remains limited, continued rainfall delays may disrupt further planting operations and early crop establishment. Forecasts indicate possible rainfall deficits through early June in western areas. Additionally, the June to September rainfall season may bring below-normal rainfall across the Sahel, in accordance with historical El Niño patterns, though there is model disagreement. Likely above-normal temperatures during this time could exacerbate dry spells and accelerate soil moisture loss (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). Additionally, persistent conflict continues to impact agricultural activities in central Mali, Lac region in Chad, northeastern Nigeria, the Far North and Southwest regions of Cameroon, and the Central African Republic, and socio-economic challenges related to inter-communal conflict continue to impact northwestern Nigeria.
Regional Outlook: Potential for negative impacts of El Niño during the June to September 2026 rainfall season
April 1st to May 25th rainfall was mostly average to below average across West Africa. Severe deficits were observed across many western areas including in Sierra Leone, western and northern Liberia, western and northern Guinea, eastern and southern Guinea-Bissau, southeastern Senegal, and some localized eastern areas in southern Chad, southern Niger, and northern Nigeria, where rainfall totals were less than 30 to 45 percent of average.
Rainfall forecasts during the next two weeks indicate mostly average conditions across the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea countries, with localized areas of above-average and below-average rainfall, according to the CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from May 27th. Favorable rains are expected to improve soil conditions and support crops in early development stages across many central and eastern areas. However, cumulative April 1st to June 10th rainfall deficits of 50 mm to 300 mm are likely in western areas, including southeastern Senegal, Guinea, eastern Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, northern Côte d'Ivoire, and southern Mali (Figure 1 left).
Areas across the Sahel region could potentially receive below-normal rainfall during the June through September (JJAS) 2026 season, associated with the developing El Niño conditions that are forecast to strengthen during JJAS 2026. The elevated chances of below-normal JJAS rainfall across the Sahel is indicated by some seasonal rainfall outlooks for the JJAS 2026 season. There is a need to be watchful of poor rainfall amounts or distribution, particularly in the unimodal rainfall areas of the region. WMO, C3S, NMME and 2026 PRESASS outlook, indicate increased chances of below-average JJAS 2026 rains in the western Sahelian regions of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. In other parts of the Sahel, the WMO (Figure 1 middle-left) and C3S ensemble forecasts indicate a regional rainfall pattern with higher chances of below-normal JJAS rainfall across the Sahel, which is in line with the tendency for below-normal rainfall during historical JJAS El Niños (Figure 1 middle-right). In contrast, the NMME ensemble forecast from May and the PRESSASS from April indicate a drier-than-average Gulf of Guinea region and a wetter-than-average central-eastern Sahel. Outcomes of the two most recent JJAS El Niño years (2015 and 2023) were mixed, with above-normal rainfall in the western-central Sahel. Diverging pre-season model forecasts are likely related to various model interpretations of El Niño influences upon the West Africa summer monsoon. Within-season forecasts and agroclimatic monitoring will be important this season as forecasted El Niño conditions develop.
A hazard to especially look out for is hot temperatures during dry spells. Dry spells are expected to be long to moderate, at the start of the JJAS rainy season across all Sudanian and Sahelian agricultural zones, and during the second half of the rainy season across many Sahelian agricultural zones, according to the PRESASS-2026. High temperatures dry out soils more quickly and can increase the risks of crop heat stress, pests, and disease. Above-normal JJAS maximum temperatures tend to occur during El Niños in the Sahel, concurrent with less rainy conditions (Figure 1 right). Across the region, climate models confidently predict above-normal JJAS 2026 temperatures.
Figure 1. Seasonal rainfall anomaly outlook, and June-to-September precipitation and temperature predictions based on forecasts and past El Niño seasons.
Figure 1. Left: CHC Early Estimates, which compare the April 1st to June 10th, 2026 precipitation total to the 1996–2025 CHIRPS average for the same accumulation period. This panel uses CHIRPS3 Preliminary for May 1–25, 2026, and a bias-adjusted NCEP GEFS forecast (CHIRPS3-GEFS) for the 15-day forecast from May 26th. Middle-left: WMO multi-model ensemble probability forecast of June to September (JJAS) 2026 precipitation terciles, based on May initial conditions. Middle-right and right: The frequency of below- or above-normal JJAS rainfall (Middle-right) and above-normal temperatures (Right) during years with concurrent El Niño conditions (1982, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2015, 2023), relative to 1991–2020 terciles. Precipitation terciles use the CHIRPS3 historical distribution for the same time period and location. In areas with brown colors, below-normal rainfall occurred in four to nine of the analog years (40-100%). Blue-green colors indicate elevated occurrence of above-normal rainfall. Gray areas are typically dry during JJAS (mean rainfall < 50 mm). Temperature terciles use CHIRTS-ERA5, a bias-corrected and downscaled version of ECMWF ERA5T. In areas with orange to dark red colors, above-normal temperatures occurred in four to nine years (40 to 100%). Blue colors indicate less frequent above-normal temperatures occurred. From UCSB CHC.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Middle East & North Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Winter Wheat conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across the Middle East and North Africa, winter wheat harvesting is underway across Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, with mostly near to above-average production expected. However, concern remains in western Libya due to early season dry conditions and southern Iraq due to a government decision to limit the area of cultivation using surface water. Conversely, conditions in Iran improved in most areas due to good rainfall received since December 2025. Elsewhere, growing conditions remain favourable. However, the wheat harvest may be delayed in Syria, northern Iraq, and parts of Iran. The United States Department of Agriculture estimates total wheat production for Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia at a record 12.9 million metric tons, which is 61 percent above last year and 58 percent above the 5-year average. Yield is forecast at 2.43 tons per hectare, which is 38 percent above last year and 40 percent above the 5-year average. The increases are attributed to favourable weather for wheat production this year, with abundant and well-distributed rains received, as most of the wheat in northwestern Africa is grown without irrigation and heavily depends on rainfall outcomes.
In Morocco, wheat harvesting is underway with generally favourable prospects. Drier than average conditions at the start of the season were followed by improvements from mid-November 2025, and total seasonal rainfall since October 2025 is amongst the highest recorded in the last 25 years. A combination of good rains and adequate irrigation water supply from reservoirs operating at 75 percent capacity benefitted crop growth. Despite a delayed start to the season in the east and flooding in the northwest in February 2026, overall biomass is favourable. The United States Department of Agriculture estimates a near-record wheat production of 7.5 million metric tons, representing a 114 percent increase compared to last year’s drought-affected crop and the first bumper crop following four years of inconducive weather outcomes and below-average output. Yield is forecast to reach a record 2.68 tons per hectare, representing a 68 percent increase compared to last year. The European Commission Joint Research Centre estimates wheat production of 5.87 million metric tons, representing a 45 percent increase compared to the five-year average. Yield is forecast to reach 2.60 tons per hectare, representing a 45 percent increase compared to the five-year average. In Algeria, a dry start to the season resulted in delayed cereal growth in the west, while the east received generally adequate rainfall amounts throughout the season. However, overall prospects are favourable following rainfall improvements in the west as well as supplementary irrigation from reservoirs that reached 100 percent capacity in the west and northeast. The United States Department of Agriculture estimates a record wheat production of 4.1 million metric tons, representing a 28 percent increase compared to last year. Yield is forecast to reach a record 2.05 tons per hectare, representing a 15 percent increase compared to last year. The European Commission Joint Research Centre estimates wheat production of 2.59 million metric tons, representing a 24 percent increase compared to the five-year average. Yield is forecast to reach 1.87 tons per hectare, representing a 24 percent increase compared to the five-year average. In Tunisia, wheat harvesting is underway with favourable prospects, including in the east which experienced a delayed start of the season and dry conditions in October and November 2025. Good rainfall since February 2026 has brought cumulative precipitation levels close to the long-term average in the west and north, and conditions are favourable across most of the country. The United States Department of Agriculture estimates wheat production of 1.3 million metric tons, representing a 1 percent decrease compared to last year. Yield is forecast to reach a record 2.52 tons per hectare, representing a 5 percent increase compared to last year. The European Commission Joint Research Centre estimates wheat production of 1.16 million metric tons, representing a 15 percent increase compared to the five-year average. Yield is forecast to reach 2.41 tons per hectare, representing a 15 percent increase compared to the five-year average. In Libya, there is ongoing concern in the west, particularly around Tripoli, likely due to a delayed rainfall onset at the beginning of the season and a reduction of the sown area, while prospects remain favourable in the east, particularly around Benghazi and with the exception of Darna. In Egypt, sowing of summer-planted maize and rice crops continues under favourable conditions. In late April, the government announced that the area permitted for rice cultivation is 724,200 feddans.
In Syria, the wheat harvest is delayed due to below-average temperatures by around two degrees since March. Overall conditions remain favourable due to above-average rainfall since October 2025, which has resulted in above-average crop biomass across the country. However, recent heavy rainfall combined with increased water inflows from Turkey resulted in rising water levels in the Euphrates River and subsequent widespread flooding and agricultural damage in the east, particularly in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor. In Iraq, concern remains in the south due to the government’s decision to reduce the area irrigated with surface water by 50 percent, which is expected to result in a below-average output. Conversely, conditions are favourable in the north, which received rainfall improvement following dry conditions at the start of the season. Land preparation is underway for the rice crop, and the permitted area is estimated at 362,000 dunams. In Iran, wheat conditions are favourable across most provinces, with the exception of Tehran and Esfahan, and crop biomass is generally above average as a dry start to the season in October and November 2025 was followed by normal to above-normal rainfall from December 2025 to May 2026. Additionally, rice planting is underway in the main rice-producing provinces of Gilan and Mazandaran and is expected to be completed in June.
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing maize conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across Southern Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in all countries, including Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and eSwatini. End of season conditions are mostly favourable despite unevenly distributed rainfall, including periods of flooding and dry spells in several areas. Crops in central Angola, eastern Zimbabwe, and northeastern South Africa have improved from prior dry concerns, crops in central Mozambique have recovered from erratic rains, and crops in central and eastern Madagascar were not significantly impacted by tropical cyclones in January and February. Conversely, conditions have been downgraded in southern Malawi, which was impacted by dry spells during late January. Poor yield outcomes are expected in western Angola, which experienced dry conditions for much of the season, in
southern Mozambique, which experienced periods of heavy rains and flooding and a severe dry spell, and in southern Madagascar, which experienced poor seasonal rainfall outcomes and high temperatures. This season, severe rainfall and rising river levels impacted several areas of the subregion from mid-December 2025 to late February 2026, followed by additional rains in March. Seasonal rains were above average across southern areas as well as in Malawi, and flooding was reported in many areas. However, the rains were generally conducive for crop development this season. Conversely, western Angola and southern Madagascar experienced well below-average rains, and parts of Zambia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo also recorded below-average amounts. Furthermore, ongoing conflict continues to impact yield outcomes in Kivu region in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Cabo Delgado region in Mozambique.
In Zimbabwe, both production and yield are expected to be above average at the national level. However, the yield in Manicaland is expected to decline around 10 percent compared to the average due to a mid-season dry spell from January 25 to February 13 that impacted parts of the east and resulted in crop wilting at critical physiological stages. In Zambia, harvesting of the 2026 summer cereal crops, mainly maize, began in May, and generally conducive weather outcomes for the summer cropping season, including above-average October 2025 to March 2026 cumulative rains in the key producing Central, Copperbelt, and Eastern provinces, are expected to result in above-average production for the second consecutive year. Maize production is estimated at 4.5 million tonnes, a bumper harvest largely due to an expansion in the planted area, as well as increased government support and good weather outcomes this season. In Malawi, the October 2025 to April 2026 rainy season has been generally favourable and beneficial to crop development. Production at the national level is expected to be average, with surpluses expected in the main producing central and northern areas. Conversely, dry spells in the south during late January resulted in moisture stress and crop wilting. Preliminary reports estimate that 30 percent of planted maize was affected, with up to 15 percent permanently affected, resulting in below-average harvests in the south. Additionally, heavy rains between March 15 and March 18 negatively affected parts of the south and destroyed 34,100 hectares of cropland. In Mozambique, production is expected to be near average at the national level, while below-average production is expected in the southern regions of Gaza, Maputo, and Inhambane, which experienced periods of heavy rains and flooding and a severe dry spell. In Madagascar, production is expected to be near average, except in the south, which experienced significant onset delays of three to four dekads, followed by poor seasonal rainfall performance and high temperatures this season. In South Africa, maize harvesting finalized in May under favourable to exceptional conditions. Despite some drier periods, above-normal rainfall was received during much of the summer 2025/26 period, which had a positive impact on crops. In the northeast, particularly in the southern half of Mpumalanga, crops have recovered from prior concerns regarding dry conditions in February. Additionally, yields are expected to be above average in Free State, North West, and Eastern Cape regions, which received widespread above-normal summer rainfall. In Lesotho, the October 2025 to March 2026 rainy season was generally average to above average. A combination of an above-average planted area and a good rainy season is expected to result in an above-average harvest at the national level. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, main season sorghum and second season maize are at varying stages of development, with harvesting nearing completion in the centre and southeast. Overall yield prospects remain favourable, except in the conflict-affected Kivu region in the east.
Planting of winter wheat continues in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho under favourable conditions. In Zambia, wheat planting began in May, and production is expected to recover from last year’s below-average level, which was negatively impacted by electricity and irrigation constraints. Good soil moisture conditions in April and a more stable electricity supply this year are likely to support wheat planting and development. In Zimbabwe, above-average cumulative rainfall received during the November 2025 to March 2026 rainy season is supporting winter crop production. In South Africa, wheat conditions are generally favourable with abundant soil moisture following above-normal rainfall during April and May. However, farmers are expected to reduce wheat plantings by 6 percent to 486,400 hectares due to low global wheat prices and rising production costs, which are driven by tensions in the Middle East that are increasing fertilizer and fuel prices. The country relies on imports for roughly half its annual wheat consumption. In Lesotho, a continuation of good rains into April is benefiting land preparation for winter wheat, particularly in the lowlands and foothills. However, fuel and diesel price increases related to escalating insecurity in the Middle East are resulting in higher transportation costs.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central & South Asia, wheat harvesting is underway in Pakistan (Rabi season) and Afghanistan (irrigated wheat), while winter wheat continues to develop in southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan, and overall conditions remain favourable. Additionally, wheat crops are in the vegetative to reproductive stage in Afghanistan (rainfed wheat), while spring wheat planting continues in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia under favourable conditions.
In Kazakhstan, autumn precipitation has provided adequate soil moisture conditions for the 2026 agricultural season. However, warmer temperatures in March resulted in early snow melt that could negatively impact soil moisture. In Afghanistan, the 2025/26 wheat season began with dry conditions, followed by intense precipitation that caused flooding in some areas. Cumulative March to May rains were generally below average, with pockets of above-average amounts in some areas. Conversely, heavy rainfall in late April resulted in flash flooding, though the impacts are localized and will not have a significant impact on the wheat harvest. Wheat harvesting progress varies by region and is expected to continue into August and September in the Central Highlands and higher elevations of the northeast. Overall conditions are better than last year and near average to average. Planting of second season crops (mainly maize and rice) is underway in the east and south and will begin in other areas in July or early August, depending on the progress of the wheat harvest. Groundwater levels improved slightly due to a combination of recent precipitation improvement, particularly between March and April and in late May, as well as likely lower levels of extraction. However, groundwater levels remain generally low. In Pakistan, harvesting of Rabi season wheat is nearing completion while maize planting continues. Overall conditions remain favourable, supported by adequate irrigation water supply in most areas and conducive weather conditions. Overall wheat production is expected to be near or above average, though localized yield losses are expected due to high temperatures at the beginning of the season as well as prior dry concerns in the rainfed Barani areas of northern Punjab that resulted in a shortage of irrigation water.
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, harvesting of both wet-season rice and wet-season maize is in the final stage. The overall yield for both wet-season rice and wet-season maize is expected to be favourable, supported by adequate water availability and sufficient sunlight during the growing period. Dry-season rice is in the seeding to early growing stage, and dry-season maize is in the seeding stage under favourable conditions. Forecasts indicate chances of below-normal rainfall during the July to September period, associated with the forecast El Niño event. Likely above-normal temperatures through December could exacerbate dry conditions (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 18).
In northern Southeast Asia, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion, and while the planted area decreased slightly, final production is expected to be normal due to sufficient irrigation water and conducive weather outcomes. Additionally, harvesting of dry-season maize is nearing completion, and overall production is expected to decrease compared to the previous season due to a decline in the planted area as well as a slightly reduced yield in the Philippines, which is a major producer of dry-season maize. Wet-season rice is in the field preparation to seeding stage, and the planted area is forecast to decline due to a lower market price and rising cost of agricultural inputs. Overall planting conditions are favourable, except in southern Viet Nam where planting is delayed due to delays in the prior harvest. Additionally, wet-season maize is in the seeding stage with favourable growth.
Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, crops remain under mixed conditions. In Bangladesh, Boro season rice production is expected to be near average despite recent flood damage in the northeast. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, early season dry conditions in mid-March and April in some areas were followed by rainfall improvement across most of the country in May that benefitted crop biomass, except in parts of the northeast.
In Indonesia, wet-season rice harvesting entered its fifth month in May, with the total harvested area of 5.4 million hectares. The yield is generally favourable, supported by adequate water availability and sufficient sunlight throughout the crop growing period. Additionally, wet-season maize harvesting entered its fifth month, with the total harvested area of 1.22 million hectares, representing a 2 percent decrease compared to
the previous season. The yield is expected to remain favourable, supported by adequate irrigation water availability and favourable sunlight conditions throughout the growing period. May is also the second month of dry-season rice planting, with the total planted area of 1.9 million hectares. Most farmers began intensive rice planting at the beginning of the dry season, taking advantage of favourable moisture conditions. Additionally, May is the second month of dry-season maize planting, with the total sown area estimated at approximately 0.5 million hectares and favourable growing conditions. In Malaysia, harvesting of wet-season rice is now complete with a favourable yield. Additionally, wet-season maize crops have continued to mature under generally drier weather conditions. However, most maize fields are currently at the grain-filling to maturity stages under generally favourable conditions, and conducive weather this season has supported grain development. Harvesting activities have begun in some early-planted areas without significant disruption. Planting of dry-season rice has reached about 69 percent of the target cultivation area. Crop conditions remain generally favourable, supported by stable weather conditions and an adequate irrigation water supply. While rainfall distribution is expected to remain near normal, some areas may experience relatively drier conditions towards the end of May. In Brunei, harvesting of wet-season rice is now complete with a favourable end of season yield. Dry-season rice is in the planting stage, and about 30 percent of the targeted irrigated area has been planted. Planted fields are currently experiencing high solar radiation rates, which is benefiting crops during this growth stage but could cause a concern for future growth if low precipitation persists.
Crop condition map synthesizing maize conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In the Philippines, dry season rice planted from November to December is now fully harvested with an average yield of 4.07 metric tons per hectare, representing a slight decrease of 0.7 percent from the same period last year. Additionally, dry-season maize planted from November to December is now fully harvested. Harvested area decreased by 5.5 percent from the previous year, and yield also decreased by 0.2 percent due to unconducive weather during kernel development, though the final yield is still within the favourable range. Total dry-season maize production reached 2.27 million tons, representing a 5.5 percent decrease from the previous year. Land preparation and planting of wet-season rice are just beginning under favourable conditions, though rainfall will likely be below normal in parts of the country for the June to September period (See Regional Outlook Pg. 18). Additionally, the early growing conditions of wet-season maize are generally favourable. In Thailand, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion, and total production is expected to decrease 2.6 percent compared with last year, mainly due to a reduction in planted area. However, rice yields are projected to improve slightly, supported by conducive weather conditions during the growing period. Additionally, harvesting of dry-season maize is nearing completion, and total production is projected to increase 5.9 percent compared with last year, driven by expansions in both planted area and yield. The final yield is expected to improve compared to the previous year, supported by adequate irrigation throughout the growing season. Wet-season rice is currently in the land preparation stage, and rice seeding has started in some areas. The planted area is forecast to decline due to lower rice prices as well as rising costs of agricultural inputs, including fertilizers, pesticides, and fuel. Additionally, farmers have started sowing wet-season maize, and the planted area is forecast to increase as farmers shift from rice and sugarcane cultivation. In northern Viet Nam, dry-season (winter-spring) rice is in the young panicle formation to grain filling stages. Yield prospects are favourable, supported by conducive weather conditions and adequate irrigation water availability. Additionally, dry-season maize in the northern region is being harvested, with adequate rainfall and sufficient soil moisture supporting normal crop development and favourable yield prospects. In the south, dry-season (winter-spring) rice is in the harvesting stage. About 1.48 million hectares had been harvested out of the total 1.92 million hectares planted, and the yield is estimated at 6.9 tons per hectare and the same as last season. Additionally, dry-season maize in the southern region is at the reproductive stage, and seasonal weather conditions have generally been favourable. Meanwhile, the main wet-season (summer-autumn) rice crop in the southern region is in the seeding stage. The planted area has reached 0.4 million hectares, equivalent to half of the area planted compared to last year. The slower planting progress is mainly attributed to delays in harvesting the dry-season (winter-spring) rice crop. In Laos, dry-season rice is in the harvesting stage and nearing completion. The final harvested area is 98 thousand hectares, and conditions are generally favourable, supported by adequate water supply. Overall production is expected to be 443 thousand tons, representing a slight increase compared to last year. Additionally, dry-season maize is in the harvesting stage. As of May, the harvested area covered 10 thousand hectares, representing 64 percent of the national planned area. Conducive weather and sufficient irrigation have supported crop growth, resulting in healthy stands and good grain filling. The yield is estimated at 5.06 tons per hectare, slightly above last year’s level. Total production is projected at 50 thousand tons, reflecting stable yield despite localized pest damage. In Myanmar, planting of dry-season rice is now complete with an area of 1.1 million hectares accounting for 96 percent of the national plan. Over 750 thousand hectares, accounting for 68.6 percent of the total planted area, have been harvested. The harvest produced 4.16 million tons of paddy with a yield of 5.5 tons per hectare, which is similar to last year. Overall conditions are favourable, and the harvesting work is progressing despite some rainy days. Additionally, sowing of wet-season maize has commenced. Pre-monsoon rainfall in key producing regions is slightly above normal, providing good soil moisture and healthy germination, and the country is expected to achieve the planned sown area. Early-planted crops are currently in the seedling stage with strong growth prospects. Furthermore, field preparation of wet-season rice is underway. In Cambodia, the national planting plan of wet-season rice is 2.94 million ha. Crops are in the sowing stage, and sowing progress has reached 5 percent of the national plan. The weather is suitable for crop growth with sufficient sunlight, but the planted area might be less than last year. The early growing conditions of wet-season rice are generally favourable. However, a possible continuation of drought and high temperatures this season raises concerns about yield reduction. Additionally, wet-season maize is in the seeding stage, reaching 7 percent of the national planting plan of 159 thousand hectares. Weather conditions are suitable for crop growth with sufficient sunlight, but the planted area might be less than last year due to possible drought.
In Sri Lanka, planting of Yala season rice (40 percent of annual rice output) and Yala season maize (10 percent of annual maize output) continues under favourable conditions. However, the pricing and availability of fertilizer continue to be a concern for the current Yala (April to October) and upcoming Maha (October to March) seasons. In Nepal, harvesting of winter wheat continues, while main season maize and spring season rice are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and overall yield prospects are favourable. In Bangladesh, harvesting of Boro season rice (55 percent of annual rice output) finalized in May under favourable conditions despite recent flood damage in the northeast. Heavy rainfall between April 26 and May 4 resulted in flooding in the haor (wetland) regions of the northeast. A total of 455,153 hectares of Boro season rice were cultivated in the hoar region, and between 49,000 hectares and 52,575 hectares, or 11 percent of the total hoar farmland, was damaged. The damage covers seven districts, including Sylhet, Moulvibazar, Habiganj, Sunamganj, Netrokona, Kishoreganj, and Brahmanbaria. Some paddy crops were also damaged outside of the hoar region due to excessive rains, though no formal estimate has been made. At the national level, the total rice loss is estimated at 214,000 metric tons, comprising 1 percent of total Boro season rice production. Additionally, summer (Kharif) season maize (15 percent of annual maize production) and Aus season rice (10 percent of annual rice production) are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, while planting of sorghum and Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice production) is just beginning, and overall conditions are favourable. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, maize crops are entering the vegetative to reproductive stage, while rice planting is just beginning. In April, parts of the country were experiencing drought conditions, and efforts were taken to protect early-season crops, including repairs to the gates of reservoirs and waterways and other measures to improve wheat and barley drought resistance. Despite dry conditions received from March through early April in the north (Pyongan Bukto, Pyongan Namdo, and Hamgyong Namdo) and during April in the southwest (Hwanghae Namdo and Hwanghae Bukto), rainfall improvements in mid-May across the country in combination with above-average temperatures since February were beneficial to early crop development. Crop biomass is above average in most provinces, with the exception of the northeast (Hamgyong Bukto and Yangggang do), possibly due to delayed sowings. Additionally, satellite analysis shows that wheat and barley cultivation areas declined 8 percent compared to the previous year. The declines were particularly notable in South Hwanghae and South Pyongan provinces located in the southwest where grain cultivation areas fell by 20 to 25 percent. Conversely, Hyongjesan district in Pyongyang recorded an increase in cultivated land, likely due to improved access to agricultural inputs, including fertilizer, fuel, and irrigation infrastructure. Wheat and barley harvesting is expected to commence in June.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Forecast continuation of deficits in some mainland areas, and El Niño-driven drying across the southern region
Mixed rainfall conditions occurred from April 1st to May 25th. Some northern region areas developed moderate to large rainfall deficits of 50 to 200+ mm below average, including in the central and northern Philippines, southern peninsular and northwestern Myanmar, central Bangladesh, central Thailand, southern and northeastern Cambodia, southern Laos, and portions of southern Vietnam. Forecast rainfall for the end of May to early June could strengthen the rainfall deficits in Myanmar and Bangladesh and partially improve them in Cambodia and the Philippines, potentially leaving the deficit areas with 60 to 90 percent of average rainfall for April 1st to June 10th, 2026 (Figure 1-left).
As wet season rains develop in northern mainland areas, there is some concern about potential drying influences that have occurred in some areas during past El Niño events, such as in Thailand. The 30-day rainfall forecast from SubC models, as of May 28th, indicates that June rains may be below average in central Myanmar, northern Thailand, and central Vietnam, and will very likely be below average across southern Southeast Asia (Figure 1 middle-left). Below-normal June to August rainfall has been observed during El Niño events in some of these areas. A multi-model ensemble forecast for July to September (JAS) 2026 rainfall, based on May initial conditions and ECMWF and NMME models, is more indicative of above-normal conditions in various mainland areas. However, May forecasts for JAS 2026 have limited accuracy and model resolution limits confidence in the geographic details forecast within the mainland region. Agroclimatic monitoring will be important as forecasted El Niño conditions develop.
In line with El Niño expectations, seasonal forecasts predict moderate to high chances of below-normal rainfall during JAS 2026 across southern areas (Figure 1 middle-right), and during October to December 2026 in Vietnam, eastern Cambodia, the Philippines, and southern parts of the Maritime region (Figure 1 right). These forecasts align with a drier dry season and a delayed arrival of wet season rains in the southern areas. During October to December 2026, strong to very strong El Niño conditions are likely (65% chance) and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions could develop and reinforce its drying influences. Across Southeast Asia, models forecast much hotter-than-normal temperatures through December 2026.
Figure 1. Seasonal rainfall anomaly outlook, and 1-month and 3-month precipitation anomaly probability forecasts.
Figure 1. Left: CHC Early Estimates, which compare the April 1st to June 10th, 2026 precipitation total to the 1996–2025 CHIRPS average for the same accumulation period. This panel uses CHIRPS3 Preliminary for May 1–25, 2026, and a bias-adjusted NCEP GEFS forecast (CHIRPS3-GEFS) for the 15-day forecast from May 26th. Middle-left: SubC multi-model 30-day rainfall tercile probability forecast for May 28th to June 26th, 2026. Colors show the dominant category forecast by four Subseasonal Consortium models, using terciles identified from 1999-2016 hindcasts. From UCSB CHC SubC. SubC data acquired from the IRI Data Library. Middle-right and Right: ECMWF and NMME 3-month multimodel ensemble forecast tercile probability for July to September 2026 (Middle-right) and October to December 2026 (Right) precipitation, from UCSB CHC MME.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing maize conditions as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, land preparation for Primera season maize and bean crops is underway across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, and there is concern for the start of the season in all areas as delayed and below-average rainfall and high temperatures are delaying sowing activities in most areas. Farmers are still waiting for adequate soil moisture to begin planting in some areas, and low river levels are also resulting in limited irrigation water availability. Above-average rains are expected in some areas during late May to early June, which could improve soil moisture and rainfed farming areas but raises the risk of crop damage from intense rains, particularly if it coincides with the likely above-normal temperatures. Conversely, hot and dry conditions are expected to return in June and continue for the remainder of the Primera season as well as the start of the Segunda season in September, associated with the typical drying influences of El Niño (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 21). Additionally, pests have been reported in some areas. Subsistence farmers are generally expected to experience a reduction in yields this season due to a significant reduction in the production areas. Large farmers are also facing higher fertilizer costs, resulting in overall higher production costs. Some farmers are responding by reducing the cropped area, while others will reduce the application of fertilizers.
In Guatemala, dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures in May negatively impacted the start of the Primera planting season, particularly for households without irrigation access. Additionally, supply chain disruptions resulted in unusual fuel price increases in March, which will lead to increased expenses for agricultural production for the start of the Primera season. In El Salvador, below-average rainfall and high temperatures at the start of the rainy season resulted in planting delays. Forecasts indicate a continuation of inconducive weather outcomes as well as a prolonged and intensified canícula period during July and August (See Regional Outlook Pg. 21). The conditions are expected to reduce soil moisture, disrupt crop development, increase the likelihood of pests and disease, and negatively affect non-irrigated smallholder farmers for the Primera season. Furthermore, fuel and fertilizer price disruptions are resulting in increased transportation and agricultural production costs as well as reduced fertilizer application rates, contributing to higher food prices. In Honduras, below-average precipitation through mid-May negatively impacted Primera season land preparation and planting, and many farmers are postponing planting until more consistent rains are established. A forecast continuation of below-average rains and high temperatures (See Regional Outlook Pg. 21) is expected to result in a prolonged and more intense canícula dry spell, with likely negative impacts for smallholder farmers. Additionally, fuel and fertilizer price increases related to global supply chain disruptions are resulting in increased transportation and production costs. The price increases are particularly expected to impact small-scale and subsistence farmers due to limited use of agricultural inputs, which is likely to further limit yields. The absence of adequate financing could reduce corn production to 92 thousand tons instead of the projected 368 thousand tons.
In Haiti, Printemps season maize and bean crops and main season rice crops are all in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and overall growing conditions remain favourable due to sufficient irrigation water supply and despite irregular rainfall distribution since the start of the season, including alternating periods of low rainfall and storms, as well as recently reduced rainfall observed in western areas. However, flooding and landslides affected Saint-Louis-du-Nord, Port-de-Paix, and Anse-à-Foleur municipalities located in the Nord-Ouest department and could reduce harvest outcomes. Additionally, forecast below-average rainfall during June could have negative impacts on crops (See Regional Outlook Pg. 21). In Cuba, harvesting of second season rice (1/3 of annual rice production) continues, while planting of main season rice is underway, and concern remains regarding the reduction of fuel availability since January.
Regional Outlook: Forecast rains to bring temporary relief before abnormally hot and dry conditions resume
The Primera rainfall season began with abnormally low rainfall and high temperatures in many areas. Intermittent rain and hot conditions have produced concerns about heat impacts to newly planted crops, and in some cases, white fly infestations. During April 1st to May 25th, 2026, rainfall amounts across much of Guatemala, Honduras, southern El Salvador, and Nicaragua ranged from less than 75 percent of average to less than 50 percent of average, according to preliminary rainfall estimates (Figure 1 top-left). Maximum temperatures were unusually hot during several weeks of May, reaching 34 to 40 °C, which coincided with typical crop planting and early vegetative growth periods in central, eastern and Pacific-coast regions of Guatemala, El Salvador, western, central, and southern Honduras, and central, northeastern, and western Nicaragua (Figure 1 top-right).
Forecast above-average rainfall during late May to early June is expected to largely benefit rainfed farming areas by substantially improving soil moisture. Heavy rains are likely, especially in central and northwestern Guatemala, Honduras, and northern Nicaragua, based on forecast 100+ mm rainfall anomalies in the bias-corrected 15-day GEFS forecast from May 27th. Forecast above-normal temperatures also raises the potential for moister air, with risks of intense rainfall and crop damage. If the forecast above-average rainfall occurs during this period, it will raise seasonal totals for April 1st to June 10th to near average amounts in central Guatemala and parts of western and eastern Honduras (Figure 1 top-middle). Elsewhere, rainfall deficits will likely persist but show some improvement.
In Haiti, forecasts indicate that substantial April to June 2026 Printemps season rainfall deficits may develop, mainly due to below-average rainfall during June. Minor to moderate rainfall deficits were observed in western areas of Haiti, as of May 25th. Negative crop impacts are possible, depending on the intensity and persistence of below-average rainfall during June, which is indicated by the CHIRPS-GEFS next 15-day and longer-range ECMWF and SubC forecasts, and on the moisture needs of crops typically approaching maturation during June. Abnormally dry and warm conditions are likely to resume in June and continue during the remainder of the Primera 2026 rainfall season as well as the land preparation and crop-growing periods of the Segunda 2026 season. Seasonal forecasts are largely showing the regional drying influences of El Niño conditions, which typically raise the occurrence of below-normal rainfall, though events can have variable impacts. Below-normal June to September rainfall has most often occurred in Guatemala, El Salvador, western and central Honduras, western Nicaragua, and Haiti, during El Niño conditions, while drying influences were less common in eastern areas of both Honduras and Nicaragua (Figure 1 bottom-left). The elevated chances of below-normal rainfall during June to August 2026 and September to November 2026 are indicated by multiple seasonal climate forecasts, including ECMWF and NMME forecasts (Figure 1 bottom middle and right), WMO, and C3S multi-model ensembles. Models are highly confident (greater than 80 percent chances) that regional temperatures during the next six months will be much warmer than normal. Higher temperatures speed the evaporation of soil moisture, and increase risks of crop stress during dry spells and from pests and disease.
The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season will likely be less active than normal due to the El Niño event, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (a 55 % chance of a below-normal season).
Figure 1. Seasonal rainfall anomaly and a forecast-based outlook, recent abnormally hot temperatures, historical June to September rainfall during El Niño events, and rainfall probability forecasts for June to November 2026.
Top Row: Left and middle: CHC Early Estimates, which show rainfall estimated for April 1st to May 25th, 2026 (Left) and a forecast-based outlook for April 1st to June 10th, 2026 (Middle). These show differences from the 1996-2025 average, for each time period, using CHIRPS3 preliminary data for May 1st to 25th, 2026. The outlook includes a 15-day bias-adjusted NCEP GEFS forecast (CHIRPS3-GEFS) from April 26th. Right: CHC Heat Monitor for May 6th to 20th, 2026. Temperature data are from CHIRTS-ERA5, a bias-corrected and downscaled version of ECMWF ERA5T. Bottom Row: Left: The frequency of below-normal June-to-September rainfall during years with concurrent El Niño conditions (1982, 1987, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2002, 2004, 2015, 2023), relative to 1991-2020 CHIRPS3 terciles. In areas with orange to dark red colors, below-normal rains occurred in four to nine years (40 to 100%). Middle and right: Multi-model ensemble forecast for the probability of below-normal, normal, and above-normal June to August (Middle) and September to November (Right) 2026 rainfall, based on May initial conditions. Based on ECMWF SEAS5 and 6 NMME models, and a 1991-2020 baseline of model hindcasts. NMME data is from the IRI Data Library; ECMWF data is from Copernicus.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published June 4th, 2026.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.