Crop Monitor for AMIS

Report Information

No. 124: Published February 6th, 2025

Conditions as of January 28th

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Overview

At the end of January, conditions are mixed for wheat while favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, winter wheat is dormant in the northern hemisphere under mixed conditions in western Canada, Europe, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the northern US. For maize, conditions are generally favourable in the southern hemisphere, except in parts of Argentina and South Africa. Rice conditions are generally favourable; however, saline intrusion is a concern in southern Viet Nam. For soybeans, conditions are generally favourable in the southern hemisphere, except in parts of Argentina and South Africa.

Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data from all Crop Monitors. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

Crop Conditions at a Glance

Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat for harvest in 2025 is under mixed conditions in the EU, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and parts of North America.

Maize – In the southern hemisphere, recent hot and dry weather is negatively affecting crops in parts of Argentina and western South Africa.

Rice – Conditions are generally favourable, however, saline intrusion in southern Viet Nam is a concern for dry-season rice.

Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, conditions are mixed for Argentina and South Africa due to recent hot and dry weather.

Forecasts at a Glance

Climate Influences – La Niña conditions developed during December 2024 and are currently present. La Niña conditions are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59 percent chance). Global temperatures for January to December 2024 were the warmest on record since global records began in 1850.

Argentina – Below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures are likely across large parts of the main agricultural areas over the next two weeks.

Brazil – Over February and March precipitation is likely to be mixed across the agricultural regions while temperatures are likely to be above average.

United States – The February outlook indicates likely above-average precipitation in the Midwest and the Pacific Northwest, while likely below-average in the southern Great Plains and in Florida.

Wheat Conditions

Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. 

Wheat: In the EU, winter wheat is under generally favourable conditions, albeit with some developmental delays in eastern Europe and the Black Sea region remaining from autumn. In Türkiye, conditions remain favourable despite dry weather in the southeast. In the Russian Federation, conditions are mixed due to above-average winter temperatures increasing the risk of winterkill and a dry sowing situation in the fall. In Ukraine, long-term dryness, especially in the southern and central regions, is a concern along with above-average temperatures, which increases the risk of winterkill. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat remains dormant under favourable conditions. In China, winter wheat is under favourable conditions. In India, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In the US, winter wheat is dormant under generally favourable conditions. In Canada, winter wheat is favourable in Ontario and Quebec, while under watch conditions in the Prairies due to a reduced snowpack and low temperatures.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Maize Conditions

Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.

Maize: In Brazil, harvest for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) begins under favourable conditions. The sowing of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is beginning slower than normal due to a mix of excess and a lack of rain in some areas. In Argentina, hot and dry conditions have negatively impacted the early-planted crop (usually larger season), particularly crops sown in October and early November. The late-planted crop (usually smaller season) has also been negatively impacted by the hot and dry weather, however, since the crop is still in the vegetative stages, recent rains might help the crop recover. In South Africa, conditions are generally favourable, however, recent hot and dry weather has negatively affected crops in the western areas, where a large proportion of the white maize crop is grown. In India, sowing of the Rabi crop (smaller season) is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Mexico, harvest is wrapping up for the spring-summer crop (larger season) under favourable conditions, albeit with a reduction in total sown area due to dry weather at the start of the season. Sowing continues for the Autumn-winter season (smaller season), with an expected reduction in total sown area due to a lack of water for irrigation.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Rice Conditions

Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.

Rice: In India, the transplanting of the Rabi and Summer rice crops is progressing in the eastern and southern parts of the country under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, the harvest of the Aman crop (mid-sized season) is wrapping up with reduced yields in the eastern and southern districts, however good yields elsewhere will likely offset the losses. Sowing continues for the Boro crop (largest season) under favourable conditions. In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season rice begins under favourable conditions. There is an increase in total sown area compared to last season, owing to significant rainfall from late December to mid-January. In Viet Nam, dry-season rice (winter-spring rice) is sowing in the south with concerns of water shortages due to saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta. In Thailand, dry-season rice is under favourable conditions with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last season due to enough irrigation water. In the Philippines, conditions are favourable for dry-season rice in the tillering to the young panicle-forming stage. In Brazil, conditions are favourable due to good solar radiation and sufficient water availability for irrigation. An increase in total sown area is estimated compared to last year.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Soybean Conditions

Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.

Soybeans: In Brazil, harvest is just beginning although most of the crops are in the reproductive stages. Despite excessive rainfall in some parts of Central-West and Southeast regions, crops are under favourable conditions. An increase in total sown area is estimated compared to last year. In Argentina, conditions are mixed as the early-planting crop (typically larger season) is entering the critical reproductive stages with a lack of soil moisture. The late planted crop (typically smaller season) is going through the vegetative stages in difficult conditions due to the high temperatures and a lack of rainfall, however, recent rainfall will likely help the crop recover. In South Africa, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with dry weather in the western regions.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.

Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.

Climate Influences: La Niña Advisory

La Niña conditions developed during December 2024 and are currently present. La Niña conditions are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59 percent chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60 percent chance) and lasting through October 2025, according to the CPC/IRI. Despite being an anticipated weak (0.5-1.0 °C) and short-lived La Niña, forecast very warm western Pacific Ocean conditions would strengthen temperature gradients, which could potentially enhance or prolong La Niña’s impacts.

La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, and northern South America. 

Global temperatures for January to December 2024 were the warmest on record since global records began in 1850. This value is 0.10 °C higher than the previous record that was set in 2023, according to the NOAA NCEI’s Monthly Global Climate Report.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC

Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation

The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over eastern Canada, the northeast US, Yucatan Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Panama, Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, northern and southern Brazil, Ecuador, northern and southern Peru, southwest Bolivia, northern Chile, Uruguay, eastern Argentina, Bulgaria, Greece, southern Italy, the northeast Russian Federation, southern Viet Nam, the Philippines, and northern Australia.

There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over central Canada, Florida and the southwest US, western Mexico, Cuba, central Brazil, central Bolivia, central Chile, western and southern Argentina, eastern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Czechia, Poland, northern Norway, southern and northern Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary, northwest Romania, northern Austria, northern Serbia, the Russian Federation, Syria, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, southern Chad, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, southern South Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, western and southern Kenya, northern and eastern Tanzania, central Zambia, southeast Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, southern and western Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini, Lesotho, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, northern and eastern India, northern Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Nepal, western and northeast China, northern and eastern Mongolia, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, central and southern Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia, and western Papua New Guinea.

Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 February 2025, issued on 31 January 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom

Argentina Outlook

The 5 – 11 February 2025 precipitation forecast (left) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation across the main agricultural areas, particularly in the northern and eastern areas. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the main agricultural areas. The 12 – 18 February 2025 precipitation forecast (right) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation in the northern provinces, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over Córdoba, San Luis, La Pampa, and southern Buenos Aires. During the same time, temperatures are leaning towards above-average across the central and northern agricultural areas.

Left: 5 – 11 February 2025 precipitation anomaly forecast. Right: 12 – 18 February 2025 precipitation anomaly forecast. Images from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina.

Brazil Outlook

The February 2025 outlook indicates a leaning toward below-average precipitation over parts of Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Rio Grande do Sul. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country except for the southern region. The March 2025 outlook indicates a leaning towards above-average or average precipitation over most of the country except for the northeast region and parts of the southern region. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country.

Upper Left: February 2025 precipitation anomaly forecast. Upper Right: February 2025 temperature anomaly forecast. Lower Left: March 2025 precipitation anomaly forecast. Lower Right: March 2025 temperature anomaly forecast. Maps from the National Institute of Meteorology

United States Outlook

The February 2025 precipitation outlook indicates probable above-average precipitation in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, upper and middle Mississippi Valley, the Pacific Northwest, the northern Pacific Coast, and the northern Rocky Mountains regions, while below-average precipitation is likely in the southern Great Plains and Florida. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the southern Great Plains, Southeast, Atlantic Coast, and in the Ohio Valley region, while below-average over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Great Plains.

Left: February 2025 precipitation outlook issued 31 January 2025. Right: February 2025 temperature outlook issued 31 January 2025. Maps from NOAA CPC