Global Crop Monitor
Report Information
No. 27: Published November 7th, 2024
Conditions as of October 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor crops as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of October are favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans, while mixed for wheat. For wheat, winter wheat sowing and emergence are off to a mixed start in parts of Europe, MENA, and the US. For maize, conditions are exceptional in most of the US, while mixed in Europe, Central America, and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. For rice, conditions are generally favourable, however, typhoons and enhanced monsoon rains have negatively impacted some northern countries in Southeast Asia. For soybeans, conditions are exceptional in the US, while poor in Ukraine, and the Russian Federation. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 71 to 75 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025. If La Niña does develop, it will likely be a weak and short-lived event, likely returning to ENSO-neutral conditions by March 2025. 2024 will almost certainly be the warmest year on record. Above-average temperatures are likely in many regions during the remainder of 2024 and into 2025.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In North America, winter wheat sowing and emergence in the US is progressing albeit with several areas of dryness across the Great Plains. In Canada, sowing of winter wheat is beginning begins under favourable conditions. In Europe, winter wheat sowing in the EU is starting slowly due to excessive rainfall in western and southern Europe. In the United Kingdom, sowing is delayed due to excessive rainfall during September and the late harvest of summer crops. In Türkiye, sowing is beginning under favourable conditions. In the Russian Federation, despite recent rainfall, winter wheat sowing continues under mostly dry conditions. In Ukraine, drought has persisted in many eastern areas, resulting in winter wheat crops that are 2-3 weeks behind in phenological development going into winter dormancy. In Central Asia, spring wheat harvesting is wrapping up under exceptional conditions in Kazakhstan. Winter wheat sowing is underway in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan under favourable conditions. In East Asia, the sowing of winter wheat is wrapping up with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year. In MENA, sowing of winter wheat is beginning in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran under dry conditions. In Sub-Saharan, harvesting is underway in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho under favourable conditions. In Zambia and Zimbabwe, reduced reservoir levels impacted irrigation use and could result in yield declines. In South Africa, conditions are favourable as widespread precipitation over the winter rainfall region had a positive impact on production. In Lesotho, conditions are favourable. In South America, recent rains in Argentina have improved conditions in the central agricultural areas and Buenos Aires, however, in the north and centre-west regions, prolonged drought has likely reduced yields. In Brazil, conditions are favourable as harvesting progresses. There is a decrease in the total sown area compared to last year. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable. In Chile, conditions are favourable. In Oceania, conditions in Australia are exceptional in New South Wales and Queensland, however, dry conditions and severe frosts have negatively impacted yields in South Australia and Victoria.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In North America, harvest is progressing faster than normal in the US under mostly exceptional conditions except in the minor producing regions of the East Coast. In Canada, yields are above-average in Manitoba and Ontario as harvest wraps up. In Central America & the Caribbean, October rainfall in Mexico continues to support the development of the spring-summer crop (larger season), however, earlier dryness remains a concern. Harvesting of Primera season cereals is complete in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, and the season ended slightly behind schedule due to dry and hot conditions that delayed planting activities. End-of-season conditions are generally favourable. In Cuba, harvesting of main-season maize continues under favourable conditions. In Haiti, Été season crops are under favourable conditions. In South America, sowing in Brazil of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is progressing under favourable conditions. A reduction in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In Argentina, sowing of the early-planted crop (usually larger season) is ongoing under favourable conditions owing to timely October rainfall. In Europe, harvest is concluding in the EU with poor results in south-eastern countries, due to in-season hot and dry weather. In Ukraine, crop conditions are poor in southern, central, and eastern regions as harvest continues. In the Russian Federation, harvest is continuing with below-average yields expected due to hot and dry weather during the summer. In Asia, harvest in China is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In India, conditions are favourable for the Kharif crop (larger season) as harvest progresses. In Pakistan, harvesting of Kharif (summer) season maize is underway. In Sri Lanka, harvesting of the Yala season crop is wrapping up while the sowing of the Maha season crop is just beginning. In East Africa, conditions are mixed due to heavy rains as the harvesting of main-season crops is underway in Ethiopia, and South Sudan, while crops continue to develop in Sudan and Eritrea for harvest from November. Sowing and development of second-season cereals is underway in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, minor producing bimodal areas of eastern Kenya, Somalia, and bimodal areas of northern United Republic of Tanzania with concern in most areas due to delayed rainfall onset and early season dry conditions. In West Africa, harvesting of main-season crops is wrapping up in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Second-season maize is in the vegetative to reproductive stage across the Gulf of Guinea areas. In Southern Africa, sowing South Africa is off to a slow start due to a delayed start to the rainy season.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In East Asia, harvesting in China of single-season rice wraps up as it begins for the late double-crop. In the Republic of Korea, conditions are favourable as harvest wraps up. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, harvest is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Japan, conditions are generally favourable as harvest wraps up. In South Asia, harvesting in India of the Kharif crop (larger season) is progressing in the northern part of the country under favourable conditions. There is a large increase in total sown area compared to last year and the average. In Pakistan, main season rice is being harvested. In Bangladesh, conditions are generally favourable for the Aman crop (mid-sized season) albeit with some losses in the east from the August floods. In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Yala season rice is wrapping up. In Nepal, main-season rice is under favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, harvesting of dry-season rice in Indonesia is continuing under favourable conditions as the sowing of wet-season rice begins at a faster pace than last year. In Malaysia & Brunei, harvesting of dry-season rice is continuing as sowing of wet-season rice begins. In Viet Nam, wet-season rice (summer-autumn and seasonal) is beginning to harvest in the north under mixed conditions due to damage from storms Yagi and Soulik. In the south, the harvest of wet-season rice (summer-autumn) is wrapping up as harvest begins for the other wet-season rice (autumn-winter and seasonal). In Thailand, wet-season rice is in the grain-filling stage under favourable conditions. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is harvesting under mixed conditions due to damage from multiple tropical cyclones that enhanced the southwest monsoon. In Myanmar, the sowing of wet-season rice has wrapped up under mostly favourable conditions. In Cambodia, conditions are favourable for wet-season rice. In the Americas, harvesting is wrapping up in the US. In Cuba, the harvesting of main-season rice continues. In Brazil, sowing continues under favourable conditions. In Haiti, harvesting of main-season rice wraps up. In MENA, harvesting of summer-planted rice is wrapping up while the Nili season (Nile Flood) rice crops continue to develop, In Iraq, rice harvesting wrapped up under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In North America, harvest is wrapping up in the US faster than normal under exceptional conditions and with a forecasted record for national yields. In Canada, yields are above-average in Ontario and Manitoba, while below-average in Saskatchewan as harvesting wraps up. In Asia, harvesting is wrapping up in China under favourable conditions. In India, harvesting is continuing under favourable conditions with an increase in total sown area compared to last year and the long-term average. In Europe, conditions in the EU are exceptional in France, while poor in Croatia, Hungary, and Romania, due to hot and dry weather during the season. Overall for the EU, yield expectations are below the 5-year average. In Ukraine, harvest is wrapping up with below-average yields in the central, eastern, and southern areas due to extremely hot and dry weather during the season, however, conditions are favourable in the western region. In the Russian Federation, harvest is wrapping up with poor yield expectations in the south due to hot and dry weather. In Africa, conditions are generally favourable in Nigeria, however, in the north, socio-economic issues and persistent conflict are impacting crops. In South America, regular rainfall in Brazil has picked up in the Central-West, South, and Southeast regions, supporting the expansion of sowing activities. However, in the north, sowing is still in the early stages as farmers await rainfall. An increase in the total sown area is estimated compared to last season.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 71 to 75 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025. If La Niña does develop, it will likely be a weak and short-lived event, likely returning to ENSO-neutral conditions by March 2025.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole index values occurred in October and negative values are forecast through November, raising the chances that below-average rainfall will continue to impact eastern East Africa during the short rains season. Current extreme deficits, combined with further poor precipitation, will likely lead to widespread crop failure in Somalia and Eastern Kenya, and severe degradation of pasture conditions.
2024 will almost certainly be the warmest year on record, according to NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information's latest statistical analysis. September 2024 was the second warmest September on record and followed a 15-month streak of record-high global temperatures. Very warm ocean temperatures contributed to extreme storm development during the active June to November 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season. If a La Niña develops, forecast very warm western Pacific Ocean conditions would strengthen temperature gradients, which could potentially enhance or prolong impacts. In agricultural areas such as central Brazil, where models are forecasting highly above-average temperatures into 2025, excessive heat will be an ongoing concern during periods of moisture stress or reproductive stages that determine final yields.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Regional Outlooks
The long-range forecast (3 months) is influenced by the possible development of a La Niña, while both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-range forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential areas of below-average precipitation over western and central Canada, and southwest and southeast US. During the same time, temperatures will likely be above-average across most of central and eastern Canada, and most of the central and eastern US. The long-term November-December-January 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows a leaning toward below-average precipitation over the southern and eastern US, while above-average precipitation is likely across Canada. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the southern US. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the US.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over El Salvador, western Nicaragua, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic, while below-average precipitation over northwestern Mexico. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average over northern and central Mexico, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The long-term November-December-January 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests above-average precipitation over El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica, while below-average precipitation is likely over northern and central Mexico. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across most of the region except for the Baja California peninsula in Mexico, eastern Nicaragua, and Costa Rica.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 9 – 22 November 2024, issued on 1 November 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southwest Peru and southern and central Brazil, while below-average precipitation is likely over Suriname, French Guiana, northern and northeast Brazil, eastern Argentina, and southern Uruguay. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, southern Suriname, southern French Guiana, northern and eastern Brazil, eastern Ecuador, northern Peru, southwest Bolivia, and northwest Argentina, while temperatures will likely be below-average over western Paraguay, southern Chile, and Argentina. The long-term November-December-January 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over northern and eastern Columbia, northwest Venezuela, while below-average precipitation is likely over northeast Brazil, Ecuador, northwest Peru, and southern Chile. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over southern Columbia, eastern Ecuador, northern and eastern Peru, northern and central Bolivia, central Brazil, and western and southern Argentina. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Argentina and Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning to above-average precipitation over northern Norway and the central Russian Federation, while likely below-average precipitation over Ireland, United Kingdom, Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, northern Italy, southern and northern Germany, southeast Poland, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, northwest Türkiye, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, eastern and western Russia Federation. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Portugal, Spain, Ireland, the United Kingdom, northern Germany, northeast Poland, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, eastern Latvia, and Lithuania, while likely below-average over North Macedonia, southern Bulgaria, Greece, Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. The long-term November-December-January 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) Indicates a leaning toward below-average precipitation over Portugal, Spain, and southeast Türkiye. During the same period, temperatures are leaning to above-average across most of Europe, with the highest likelihood surrounding the Mediterranean and across northern Europe.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 9 – 22 November 2024, issued on 1 November 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Morocco, northwest Algeria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, central and southern Iraq, and southwest Iran. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, and southern Iran, while below-average over southeast Libya, southern Egypt, and northern Iran. The long-term November-December-January 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning toward below-average precipitation over Morocco, northern Algeria, Syria, Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Dubai, Iraq, and Iran. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for MENA.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Gabon, southern Republic of Congo, western Democratic Republic of Congo, and northwest Angola, while below-average precipitation over Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, northern Côte d'Ivoire, southwest Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, central and southern Benin, central and southern Nigeria, central Cameroon, southern Chad, western Central African Republic, central Ethiopia, coastal Somalia, eastern Kenya, eastern Tanzania, central Zambia, central and southern Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Mauritania, northern Mali, northern Senegal, central east Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, northeast Uganda, eastern Tanzania, northern Mozambique, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, central South Africa, and Madagascar, while below-average over Guinea, southern Mali, northern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Burkina Faso, northern Ghana, northern Benin, northeast Nigeria, southern Niger, Chad, western Sudan, South Sudan, the Central African Republic, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, and northwest Tanzania. For the long-term November-December-January 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be below-average over Ethiopia, Somalia, and eastern Kenya. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across central Africa and extending into northern Southern Africa. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa and Southern Africa.
Figure 3: Probabilistic forecast for most likely ONovember-December-January (NDJ) 2025 rainfall tercile, based on October conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern and southern Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan, while below-average precipitation over central and southern Afghanistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in southern Afghanistan, while below-average in Uzbekistan. The long-term November-December-January 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across eastern and western Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, eastern Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern Pakistan, southern India, and Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire region. The long-term November-December-January 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation in Pakistan and northern India. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over western and central China, eastern Republic of Korea, and southern Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire region. The long-term November-December-January 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning toward below-average precipitation over eastern and western China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and southern Japan. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region with the highest likelihood over central and southwest China, southern the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and northern Japan.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential above-average precipitation over western and eastern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and western and eastern Australia, while below-average over the Philippines, northern Papua New Guinea, northern Australia, and central New Zealand. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia. The long-term November-December-January 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northwest Australia. During the same time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over Myanmar, western and southern Thailand, southern Cambodia, southern Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, western Australia, and New Zealand.
Figure 4: Probabilistic forecast for most likely November-December-January (NDJ) 2025 temperature tercile, based on October conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble