Global Crop Monitor
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No. 29: Published February 6th, 2025
Conditions as of January 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of January are favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans, while mixed for wheat. For wheat, conditions are mixed in the northern hemisphere with adverse weather in western Canada, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the US. For maize, conditions are generally favourable albeit with dry conditions in Argentina and southern Africa. For rice, conditions are generally favourable, however, there are concerns about saline intrusion in southern Viet Nam. For soybeans, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with dry conditions in Argentina and South Africa. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
La Niña conditions developed during December 2024 and are currently present. La Niña conditions are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59 percent chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60 percent chance) and lasting through October 2025, according to the CPC/IRI. Global temperatures for January to December 2024 were the warmest on record since global records began in 1850.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In North America, winter wheat is dormant in the US under generally favourable conditions. In Canada, winter wheat is favourable in Ontario and Quebec, while under watch conditions in the Prairies due to a reduced snowpack and low temperatures. In Mexico, conditions are favourable, albeit with a reduction in total sown area. In Europe, winter wheat is under generally favourable conditions, albeit with some developmental delays in eastern Europe and the Black Sea region remaining from autumn. In the United Kingdom, conditions remain mixed due to the delayed start of the season. In Türkiye, conditions remain favourable despite dry weather in the southeast. In the Russian Federation, conditions are mixed due to above-average winter temperatures increasing the risk of winterkill and a dry sowing situation in the fall. In Ukraine, long-term dryness, especially in the southern and central regions, is a concern along with above-average temperatures, which increases the risk of winterkill. In Central Asia, winter wheat is dormant in Kazakhstan under favourable conditions. In Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, winter wheat is dormant under favourable conditions. In Afghanistan, winter wheat is dormant under favourable conditions with adequate rainfall during sowing and above-average precipitation during January. In South Asia, sowing is wrapping up in India under favourable conditions with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Pakistan, sowing of Rabi season wheat is just beginning under mixed conditions as drought is emerging in parts of the country as of late January. In Nepal, conditions are favourable for winter wheat. In East Asia, winter wheat is under favourable conditions in China. In MENA, winter wheat is now in the vegetative to reproductive stage, however, dry weather is impacting crops in Morocco, most of Algeria, central-west and northern Tunisia, Lebanon, Syria, and northern Iraq. In Iran, conditions are favourable despite below-average rainfall since November 2024. In Sub-Saharan, conditions are favourable in Ethiopia and northern Tanzania as the harvest wraps up. In Sudan, the crop is in the vegetative to reproductive stage with concern due to ongoing conflict.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In South America, harvest for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is beginning under favourable conditions. The sowing of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is beginning slower than normal due to a mix of excess and a lack of rain in some areas. In Argentina, hot and dry conditions have negatively impacted the early-planted crop (usually larger season), particularly crops sown in October and early November. The late-planted crop (usually smaller season) has also been negatively impacted by the hot and dry weather, however, since the crop is still in the vegetative stages, recent rains might help the crop recover. In Uruguay, crops are in the grain-filling stage under favourable conditions. In Central America & the Caribbean, harvest is wrapping up in Mexico for the spring-summer crop (larger season) under favourable conditions, albeit with a reduction in total sown area due to dry weather at the start of the season. Sowing continues for the Autumn-winter season (smaller season), with an expected reduction in total sown area due to a lack of water for irrigation. In El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, harvesting for the Segunda/Postrera season is wrapping up under generally favourable conditions. In Cuba, sowing of the main-season maize is continuing under mixed conditions due to earlier hurricanes and earthquakes in late October and early November 2024. In Asia, sowing of the Rabi crop (smaller season) in India is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Sri Lanka, the Maha season (larger season) is under mixed conditions due to storm impacts in the northeast. In East Africa, harvesting of main-season crops finalized across Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia (Meher season), and Eritrea with poor outcomes in Sudan and unimodal regions of South Sudan due to a combination of overly wet conditions and widespread flooding as well as the ongoing conflict in Sudan. Across southern East Africa, harvesting of second-season crops is wrapping up in Somalia, Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi. In the bimodal and minor producing areas in eastern Kenya, short rains maize is under mixed conditions due to dryness. In the unimodal areas of Tanzania, sowing of Msimu season crops is ongoing under dry conditions. In West Africa, harvesting of the second season crops wraps up along the southern coast under generally favourable conditions. In Southern Africa, conditions are generally favourable in South Africa, however, recent hot and dry weather has negatively affected crops in the western areas, where a large proportion of the white maize crop is grown. In southeast and eastern Angola, northwestern Namibia, central and southern northeastern Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, central and southern Mozambique, and much of Madagascar, conditions are mixed due to expanding dryness.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In Central & South Asia, transplanting in India of the Rabi and Summer rice crops is progressing in the eastern and southern parts of the country under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, the harvest of the Aman crop (mid-sized season) is wrapping up with reduced yields in the eastern and southern districts, however good yields elsewhere will likely offset the losses. Sowing continues for the Boro crop (largest season) under favourable conditions. In Sri Lanka, Maha season crops are under mixed conditions due to storm impacts in the northeast. In Southeast Asia, harvesting of wet-season rice in Indonesia is beginning under favourable conditions. There is an increase in total sown area compared to last season, owing to significant rainfall from late December to mid-January. In Malaysia, the sowing of wet-season rice is nearly complete as the harvesting of earlier sown rice begins to be harvested. In Brunei, the harvesting of wet-season rice is beginning. In Viet Nam, dry-season rice (winter-spring rice) is sowing in the south with concerns of water shortages due to saline intrusion in the Mekong Delta. In Thailand, dry-season rice is under favourable conditions with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last season due to enough irrigation water. In the Philippines, conditions are favourable for dry-season rice in the tillering to the young panicle-forming stage. In Myanmar, the sowing of dry-season rice continues under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, dry-season rice is in the grain filling to harvesting stage under favourable conditions. In the Americas, conditions are favourable in Brazil due to good solar radiation and sufficient water availability for irrigation. An increase in total sown area is estimated compared to last year. In Argentina, conditions are favourable as the crop enters the reproductive stages. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable as the crops enter the reproductive stage. In Cuba, sowing of the second-season rice continues under mixed conditions due to the potential impacts of hurricanes and earthquakes in late October and early November 2024. In Haiti, second-season rice is under mixed conditions due to earlier flooding. In MENA, conditions are favourable in Egypt as the second-season rice harvest wraps up.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In South America, harvest is just beginning in Brazil although most of the crops are in the reproductive stages. Despite excessive rainfall in some parts of Central-West and Southeast regions, crops are under favourable conditions. An increase in total sown area is estimated compared to last year. In Argentina, conditions are mixed as the early-planting crop (typically larger season) is entering the critical reproductive stages with a lack of soil moisture. The late planted crop (typically smaller season) is going through the vegetative stages in difficult conditions due to the high temperatures and a lack of rainfall, however, recent rainfall will likely help the crop recover. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable. In Central America, harvest is progressing in Mexico under favourable conditions. In Africa, conditions are generally favourable in South Africa, albeit with dry weather in the western regions.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
La Niña conditions developed during December 2024 and are currently present. La Niña conditions are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59 percent chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60 percent chance) and lasting through October 2025, according to the CPC/IRI. Despite being an anticipated weak (0.5-1.0 °C) and short-lived La Niña, forecast very warm western Pacific Ocean conditions would strengthen temperature gradients, which could potentially enhance or prolong La Niña’s impacts.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Global temperatures for January to December 2024 were the warmest on record since global records began in 1850. This value is 0.10 °C higher than the previous record that was set in 2023, according to the NOAA NCEI’s Monthly Global Climate Report.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Regional Outlooks
The short-term (2 weeks) and the long-range forecast (3 months) are both influenced by the current La Niña and reflect the warming global temperatures.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over eastern Canada and the northeast US, while below-average precipitation over central Canada, Florida, and the southwest US. During the same time, temperatures will likely be above-average across most of eastern Canada and the eastern US, while below-average across western and central Canada and the northwest and northern Great Plains of the US. The long-term February-March-April 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows likely above-average precipitation over eastern and western Canada along with the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes regions in the US, while below-average precipitation is likely across the US southwest and southeast. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the southern and central US. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the US.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast(Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the Yucatan peninsula in Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, and Panama, while below-average precipitation over western Mexico and Cuba. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average over Mexico, northern Guatemala, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and southern Cuba. The long-term February-March-April 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests above-average precipitation over Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Jamaica, while below-average precipitation is likely over northern and western Mexico and western Cuba. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across most of the region except for the Baja California peninsula in Mexico, Costa Rica, and western Panama.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 February 2025, issued on 31 January 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, northern and southern Brazil, Ecuador, northern and southern Peru, southwest Bolivia, northern Chile, Uruguay, and eastern Argentina, while below-average precipitation is likely over central Brazil, central Bolivia, central Chile, and western and southern Argentina. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over coastal Venezuela, central Guyana, southern Suriname, French Guiana, central and northeast Brazil, southern Peru, and northern Bolivia, while temperatures will likely be below-average over eastern Columbia, northwestern Brazil, and northern Peru. The long-term February-March-April 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guinan, and northwest Brazil, while below-average precipitation is likely over central and northeast Brazil, and southern Chile. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average for central Brazil, northern Bolivia, eastern Peru, northern Paraguay, southern Uruguay, southern Chile, and southern Argentina. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Argentina and Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning to above-average precipitation over Bulgaria, Greece, southern Italy, and the northeastern Russian Federation, while likely below-average precipitation over eastern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Czechia, Poland, northern Norway, southern and northern Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary, northwest Romania, northern Austria, northern Serbia, and most of the Russian Federation. During this time, temperatures are likely to be leaning towards above-average over Sweden, Finland, and the northern Russian Federation, while likely below-average over the southern Russian Federation and Azerbaijan. The long-term February-March-April 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning toward above-average precipitation over Norway, Sweden, Finland, and the northern Russian Federation, while a leaning toward below-average over Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, Romania, southern Ukraine, western Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Albania, northern Greece, Türkiye, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of Europe, except for central Türkiye.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 February 2025, issued on 31 January 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over Syria, northern Iraq, and Iran. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Tunisia, while below-average over central Morocco, central Algeria, and northern and eastern Iran. The long-term February-March-April 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Iran, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over Iraq, Syria, northern Algeria, and Morocco. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire region with the highest likelihood along coastal Morocco, northwestern Syria, and Iran. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for MENA.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Guinea, Sierra Leone, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, southern Chad, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, southern South Sudan, central and western Ethiopia, western and southern Kenya, northern and eastern Tanzania, central Zambia, southeast Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, southern and western Mozambique, South Africa, Eswatini, and Lesotho. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, western Nigeria, Niger, southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the Republic of the Congo, western Ethiopia, western Kenya, Rwanda, southern and northeastern Tanzania, Malawi, northern and southern Mozambique, western Zambia, southeastern Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, northern and central South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini, and eastern Madagascar. For the long-term February-March-April 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is leaning towards below-average over central Ethiopia, southern Somalia, central Kenya, Uganda, and northwestern Tanzania. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Senegal, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the Republic of the Congo, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Uganda, eastern Kenya, southern Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, northern Mozambique, northern Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, and southern South Africa. For further details, see the CM4EWregional outlooks for East Africa and Southern Africa.
Figure 3: Probabilistic forecast for most likely February-March-April (FMA) 2025 rainfall tercile, based on January conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be below-average over Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, northern Kyrgyzstan, and northwest Afghanistan. The long-term February-March-April 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire region. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Nepal, northern and eastern India, and Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central Nepal and southern and northeast India. The long-term February-March-April 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation in northern and western Pakistan and northern India, while above-average precipitation over southern India and Sri Lanka. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Pakistan, most of India, eastern Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over western and northeast China, northern and eastern Mongolia, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and central and southern Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be below-average across Mongolia, northern China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and southern Japan, while above-average over southwestern China. The long-term February-March-April 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over southeastern China, the Republic of Korea, and Japan. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for southern China.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential above-average southern Viet Nam, the Philippines, and northern Australia., while below-average over northern Myanmar, Indonesia, and western Papua New Guinea. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, western Thailand, northern Laos, the southern Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, eastern Australia, and New Zealand, while below-average over southern Viet Nam and northern Australia. The long-term February-March-April 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over eastern Myanmar, northern Laos, northern Thailand, Cambodia, southern Viet Nam, the Philippines, southern Indonesia, and northern Australia, while below-average over Indonesia and Malaysia. During the same time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over Myanmar, western and southern Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, coastal Australia, and New Zealand.
Figure 4: Probabilistic forecast for most likely February-March-April (FMA) 2025 temperature tercile, based on January conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble