Global Crop Monitor
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No. 30: Published March 6th, 2025
Conditions as of February 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of February are positive for maize and rice, while mixed for wheat and soybeans. For wheat, conditions are mixed in the northern hemisphere with adverse weather in the Canadian Prairies, Europe, the Middle East and North Africa, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the northern US. For maize, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with dry conditions in Argentina and parts of Africa. For rice, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some potential damage from heavy rains in the Philippines. For soybeans, conditions have declined due to hot and dry weather in southern Brazil. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
La Niña conditions are currently present. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during March-May 2025 (66 percent chance). Neutral ENSO conditions are most likely through November 2025, according to the CPC/IRI. Forecast above-average temperatures during late February to mid-March raise the risk of heat stress during maize reproductive development in southern Brazil and northern Argentina and may exacerbate impacts of forecast below-average rainfall during early March. In East Africa, forecast hotter and drier-than-average conditions could challenge the establishment of rainfed crops.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In North America, winter wheat remains mostly dormant under generally favourable conditions. In Canada, winter wheat conditions remain stable as favourable in Ontario and Quebec and under watch in the Prairies due to a reduced snowpack and low temperatures. In Mexico, conditions are favourable, with a reduction in total sown area due to the reduced availability of irrigation water. In Europe, conditions are generally favourable for winter wheat in the EU; however, prolonged dry weather has eroded potential yields in Bulgaria and Romania. In Türkiye, conditions remain generally favourable despite continuing dry weather in the southeast. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat is in dormancy, however, below-average precipitation since the beginning of the season remains a concern for the spring. In Ukraine, prolonged dryness and little to no snow cover are creating poor soil moisture conditions for when winter wheat breaks dormancy in the spring. In Central Asia, winter wheat is dormant in Kazakhstan under favourable conditions. In Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, winter wheat is mostly in the dormancy stage under favourable conditions. In Afghanistan, winter wheat conditions remain favourable, with the distribution and frequency of rains in March and April being crucial in the development of rainfed crops. In South Asia, conditions are favourable in India, with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Pakistan, concern remains in the barani area of northern Punjab due to below-average rainfall. In Nepal, winter wheat is in the vegetative to reproductive stage under favourable conditions. In East Asia, winter wheat is breaking dormancy in China under favourable conditions. In MENA, A severe rainfall deficit in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya is negatively impacting crops, however, rainfall received in the second half of January partially offset deficits in coastal areas of eastern Algeria and Tunisia. Conversely, in Libya, extreme high rainfall received in December may impact final yields. In Lebanon, Syria, northern Iraq, and much of Iran, dry conditions are expanding. In Sub-Saharan Africa, harvest is ongoing in Sudan under mixed conditions due to ongoing conflict.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In South America, harvest in Brazil for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is continuing under favourable conditions with a decrease in the total sown area compared to last year. The sowing of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is picking up pace with an increase in the total sown area expected compared to last year. In Argentina, harvest is beginning for the early-planted crop (usually larger season) with highly variable yields due to water deficits and excessive heat. Recent rains in the main producing areas of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and Santa Fe during February have improved expectations for the late-planted crop (usually smaller season). In Uruguay, conditions are favourable, with an above-average total sown area. In Central America & the Caribbean, the sowing in Mexico of the Autumn-winter season (smaller season) is wrapping up with a reduction in the total sown area compared to normal due to a lack of irrigation water. In Cuba, sowing of the main-season maize is continuing under favourable conditions. In Asia, conditions are favourable in India for the Rabi crop (smaller season). In Bangladesh, the winter/Rabi season crop is under favourable conditions. In Nepal, the sowing of the main season crop is beginning. In Sri Lanka, the Maha season (larger season) is under mixed conditions due to storm impacts in the northeast. In East Africa, sowing of Belg season crops is just beginning in Ethiopia with concern due to a delayed and below-average start to the seasonal rains. In Kenya, harvesting of short rains maize is nearing completion under poor conditions due to low rainfall outcomes this season, including a delayed start to the season. In Uganda, the sowing of first-season maize crops is just beginning in bimodal areas with concern due to a poor start to the seasonal rains. In Rwanda, sowing of Season B (smaller season) maize crops is just beginning, with concern regarding current dry conditions. In Tanzania, Msimu season crops continue to develop under mixed conditions with ongoing dry concerns in the south and west. In Southern Africa, harvesting is just beginning in Angola, while crops continue to develop in Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and eSwatini. Conditions are mostly favourable, and significant rainfall improvements since January have improved vegetation and soil moisture in many central and eastern areas of the region, including central Zambia, central and southern Malawi, and central and southern Mozambique. The rains have also contributed to the proliferation of pests and diseases. African Armyworm are present across parts of Zimbabwe, Malawi, Botswana, eSwatini, and South Africa, and a bacterial wilt disease is present in South Africa. Conversely, dry conditions remain a concern in southern Angola, northern Malawi, and Madagascar.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In Central & South Asia, conditions are favourable in India for the Rabi and Summer crops as transplanting progresses. In Bangladesh, the Boro crop (largest season) is developing under favourable conditions. In Sri Lanka, the harvest of the Maha season crops is just beginning under mixed conditions due to storm impacts in the northeast. In Southeast Asia, ample rainfall in Indonesia from late January to mid-February continues to support the sowing of wet-season rice, contributing to a large increase in the total sown area compared to last season. Harvesting of earlier sown crops continues with good yields. In Malaysia, the sowing of wet-season rice is complete, and harvesting is progressing. In Brunei, the harvesting of wet-season rice is ongoing under mixed conditions due to excessive rainfall over the past few weeks. In Viet Nam, sowing of dry-season rice (winter-spring rice) begins in the north and continues in the south. Some provinces in the Mekong River Delta have begun harvesting with good yields. In Thailand, dry-season rice is in the young panicle-forming stage and grain-filling stage under favourable conditions. In the Philippines, heavy rains in the southern parts of Luzon and central Mindanao in January caused some flooding and landslide damage to dry-season rice crops. In Myanmar, the sowing of dry-season rice is progressing under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, the harvest of dry-season rice is progressing under favourable conditions. In the Americas, harvesting is beginning in Brazil under favourable conditions. An increase in total sown area is estimated compared to last year. In Argentina, the harvest is beginning under favourable conditions. In Uruguay, the harvest is beginning under favourable conditions. In Cuba, the second-season rice crop is in the vegetative to reproductive stages under favourable conditions. In Haiti, the harvest of second season rice crops is just beginning under favourable conditions. In Honduras, harvesting of second season rice crops is just beginning under favourable conditions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are mixed in Madagascar due to long-term dryness combined with recent storm flooding damage. In Tanzania, conditions are mixed due to dry conditions in the south and southwest. In Mali, the ongoing conflict remains a concern.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In South America, harvest is continuing in Brazil under generally favourable conditions, albeit with a delay compared to last season. A lack of rainfall in parts of the south region is a potential concern for yields. An increase in total sown area is estimated compared to last year. In Argentina, recent rainfall has improved conditions across most of the country for both the early-planting (typically larger season) and late-planted (typically smaller season) crops, however, dryness remains an issue in the northern and southern provinces.. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable, supported by good soil moisture levels. In Central America, harvest in Mexico is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Africa, conditions are mixed in South Africa after a late start to the rainy season and a dry period from mid-January to early February. Rainfall in March will be critical to sustaining yields.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
La Niña conditions are currently present. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during March-May 2025 (66 percent chance). Neutral ENSO conditions are most likely through November 2025, according to the CPC/IRI. Very warm western Pacific Ocean conditions are forecast to continue, which would strengthen temperature gradients and potentially enhance or prolong La Niña’s impacts.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Global temperatures for January 2025 were the warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. Forecast above-average temperatures during late February to mid-March raise the risk of heat stress during maize reproductive development in southern Brazil and northern Argentina and may exacerbate impacts of forecast below-average rainfall during early March. In East Africa, forecast hotter and drier-than-average conditions could challenge the establishment of rainfed crops.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Regional Outlooks
The short-term (2 weeks) and the long-range forecast (3 months) are both influenced by the current La Niña and reflect the warming global temperatures.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over eastern Canada, the western and the Great Lakes regions of the US, while below-average precipitation over the great Plains of the US. During the same time, temperatures will likely be above-average across the Canadian Prairies and most of the eastern US to the Rocky Mountains, while below-average across the west coast and southwest of the US. The long-term March-April-May 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows likely above-average precipitation over eastern and western Canada along with the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes regions in the US, while below-average precipitation is likely across the US southwest and Great Plains. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the southern and central US.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Mexico and western Cuba. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average over central and southern Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and southern Cuba, while below-average in northwest Mexico. The long-term March-April-May 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests above-average precipitation over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Jamaica, while below-average precipitation is likely over northern and western Mexico. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador, Panama, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica, while below-average over the Baja California peninsula in Mexico.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 March 2025, issued on 28 February 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central Columbia, southern and eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, northern Brazil, western Ecuador, southern Peru, western Bolivia, and northwest Argentina, while below-average precipitation is likely over eastern and central Brazil and southern Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern and central-west Brazil, southern Peru, and Uruguay, while temperatures will likely be below-average over Columbia, northwestern Brazil, northern Peru, and northern Chile. The long-term March-April-May 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over Columbia, southern Venezuela, northern Brazil, northern Peru, and southwest Bolivia, while below-average precipitation is likely over northeast and southern Brazil, northeast Bolivia, northern Paraguay, southern Chile, and western Argentina. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average for central and southern Columbia, Ecuador, eastern Peru, Bolivia, Brazil, Paraguay, southern Uruguay, and Argentina. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Argentina and Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over coastal Norway, northern Sweden, Finland, and the northern Russian Federation, while likely below-average precipitation over eastern Poland, eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, eastern Serbia, western and southeast Belarus, Ukraine, the central and southern Russian Federation, northern Georgia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of Europe except for Portugal, Spain, eastern France, northern Poland, and northern Türkiye. The long-term March-April-May 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning toward below-average precipitation over northern France, Belgium, central Romania, southern and eastern Ukraine, Serbia, and the central region of the Russian Federation. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average across all of Europe. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Ukraine.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 March 2025, issued on 28 February 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over northern Algeria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and southeast Iran. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, Israel, Syria, northern Iraq, Yemen, and Oman, while below-average over central Iran. The long-term March-April-May 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely leaning towards below-average precipitation over Iran, southern Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire region. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for MENA.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central Côte d'Ivoire, central Ghana, northern and central Tanzania, and Madagascar, while below-average over coastal Sierra Leone, northern Angola, southern Malawi, central Botswana, and central and southeast South Africa. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Niger, northern Ghana, northern Togo, northern Benin, northern Nigeria, northwestern Chad, Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, southern Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, coastal and southern Tanzania, Malawi, northern Mozambique, central Zambia, southern Namibia, central South Africa, Lesotho, and eastern Madagascar. For the long-term March-April-May 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is leaning towards above-average over southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, and southwest Cameroon, while below-average over Sierra Leone, eastern Ethiopia, Somalia, eastern Uganda, eastern Kenya, and northwestern and northeastern Tanzania. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the majority of the region except for central Chad, coastal Namibia, northern Botswana, Zimbabwe, and southern Zambia. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa and Southern Africa.
Figure 3: Probabilistic forecast for most likely March-April-May (MAM) 2025 rainfall tercile, based on February conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Afghanistan, while below-average over western Kazakhstan, central Turkmenistan, and eastern Kyrgyzstan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Kazakhstan, while below-average over western Afghanistan. The long-term March-April-May 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning towards below-average precipitation over southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, western Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire region, except in northeastern Kazakhstan. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central Bangladesh and northeastern India, while below-average over central and northern India, eastern Pakistan, and southern Nepal. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Nepal, India, Bhutan, Bangladesh, western Sri Lanka, and southern Pakistan. The long-term March-April-May 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning toward above-average precipitation over southern India and Sri Lanka, while below-average precipitation over western Pakistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over the entire region, except for southeastern India. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southwest China, while below-average precipitation over northwestern and eastern China, northeastern Mongolia, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the northern Republic of Korea, and northwestern Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern and eastern Mongolia, southwest and northeast China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and Japan, while below-average over southern China. The long-term March-April-May 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central and southwest China, while below-average over southeast China and Japan. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of the region except for southern China.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential above-average southern Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, northern and southeastern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia, while below-average over northeastern Indonesia, northern Papua New Guinea, western Australia, and New Zealand. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, western Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, western and southern Australia, and New Zealand, while below-average over Laos, Viet Nam, and northeastern Australia. The long-term March-April-May 2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, eastern Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia, while below-average over central and western Indonesia and central Malaysia. During the same time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over Myanmar, western and southern Thailand, the central and southern Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, southern and coastal Australia, and New Zealand.
Figure 4: Probabilistic forecast for most likely March-April-May (MAM) 2025 temperature tercile, based on February conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble