Global Crop Monitor

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No. 22: Published June 6th, 2024

Conditions as of May 28th

For access to all reports, please visit the Archive.

Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.

Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor crops as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.

Global Crop Overview

Global crop conditions at the end of May are favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans, while mixed for wheat. For wheat, areas of concern remain in parts of North America, Europe, North Africa, Central Asia, and Australia. For maize, areas of concern remain in South America, Central America, Southern Africa, East Africa, and parts of Europe. For rice, conditions are generally favourable except for in parts of Central America and the ending dry-season in Thailand. For soybeans, harvesting is wrapping up in the southern hemisphere as sowing continues in the northern hemisphere. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.

Global Climate Influences Overview

The next several months will likely be a transition period, from rapidly waning El Niño conditions, into ENSO neutral and then likely emergent La Niña conditions. The CPC/IRI predicts a 69 chance of La Niña during July to September 2024, and chances remain high into early 2025.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

WHEAT

Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of May 28th.

In North America, conditions are mostly favourable in the US for winter wheat, except in Kansas where dry conditions remain. The sowing of spring wheat is continuing. In Canada, the sowing of spring wheat continues with possible drought concerns in parts of the Prairies. In Mexico, conditions are mixed for winter wheat. In Europe, weather conditions have greatly varied in the EU, with excess rainfall resulting in water logging and high pest pressure in parts of western Europe, while also supporting exceptional crop conditions in Portugal, Romania, and Spain. In the UK, an overly wet winter and spring combined with recent warm weather has brought pressure from pests. In Türkiye, conditions remain favourable despite recent dry weather in the west. In Ukraine, drought conditions since mid-April are negatively impacting crops in the southern region alongside the persistent impacts of the ongoing war. In the Russian Federation, sharp and prolonged freezes in May have likely negatively impacted both winter and spring wheat across a wide area. In Central Asia, winter wheat harvesting continues in Afghanistan as crops continue to develop in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. In Kazakhstan, spring wheat sowing is now complete in the south, while continuing in the north. However, recent heavy rains during May in the major producing northern half of the country are affecting the sowing pace in some areas. In South Asia, harvesting is wrapping up in Pakistan and Nepal under favourable conditions. In East Asia, conditions are favourable in China as winter wheat harvest begins. In Mongolia, spring wheat is under favourable conditions. In MENA, harvesting is now underway in Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt while crops continue to develop in Algeria, Libya, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. In Morocco and northwest and central-eastern Algeria, yields were severely affected by drought this season. However, recent rainfall improvement between February and March led to some crop recovery in the northern tip of Morocco, northeast and north-central Algeria, and north and north-central Tunisia. In Sub-Saharan, sowing is now underway in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho under generally favourable conditions for the start of the season. However, in Zambia and Zimbabwe, the ongoing drought is causing water shortages.

For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.

MAIZE

Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of May 28th.

In South America, harvesting is delayed in Brazil for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) with yields below the 5-year average in the Southeast and Northeast regions due to a lack of rain and high temperatures during sowing and crop development. Harvesting of the summer-planted crop (larger season) has begun in some areas as rainfall in the South region has stabilised crop conditions. In Argentina, harvesting of the early-planted crop (larger season) is wrapping up in many areas under favourable conditions. As the harvesting of the late-planted crop (smaller season) begins, initial yields are highly variable due to the impact of corn stunt disease being spread by the maize leafhopper insect. In Uruguay, harvesting is progressing for the late-planted crop. In Central America & the Caribbean, drought conditions in Mexico remain as the autumn-winter crop (smaller season) is being harvested alongside the sowing of the spring-summer crop (larger season). Sowing of Primera season crops is ramping up in Guatemala under dry conditions. In Cuba, sowing and development of main-season crops continue under favourable conditions. In Haiti, dry conditions are impacting the sowing of the Primtemps season. In North America sowing is progressing in the US under favourable conditions. In Canada, sowing is beginning. In Europe, sowing is wrapping up in the EU albeit with some delays in France and Bulgaria due to cold and wet weather. In Ukraine, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions away from the war zone. In the Russian Federation, sharp and prolonged freezes may have impacted crops. In Asia, conditions are favourable in China for the development of spring maize and the sowing of summer maize. In Pakistan, sowing of the main season crops continues. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, maize sowing is continuing under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, conditions are favourable for the summer crop (smaller season). In Sri Lanka, sowing of Yala season crop crops is continuing under mixed conditions. In East Africa, the sowing and development of main season crops are underway, and overall conditions are mixed due to a combination of ongoing dry concerns from the beginning of the season, recent heavy rainfall, and resultant flooding in parts of South Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Burundi, and a possible early cessation of rains in parts of Somalia and Kenya. In Southern Africa, harvesting is wrapping up across the region under mostly poor to failure conditions, including in south and eastern Angola, northern Namibia, Botswana, much of Zambia, central Malawi, much of Mozambique, southern Madagascar, Lesotho, central South Africa, Zimbabwe, most of Zambia, and southern Malawi.

For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.

RICE

Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of May 28th.

In South Asia, Rabi and summer rice harvesting is wrapping up in India under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, harvesting wraps up for the Boro crop (largest season) as the sowing of the Aus crop (smallest season) wraps up and the sowing of the Aman crop (mid-sized season) begins. In Sri Lanka, the sowing of Yala season crops is just continuing with ongoing dry concerns in the northeast. In East Asia, conditions are favourable in China for both the early-planted and single-season rice crops with ample rainfall in the southwest. In the Republic of Korea, conditions are favourable, albeit with a reduction in the total sown area compared to last year. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, sowing is beginning under favourable conditions. In Nepal, second-season rice is under favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, wet-season rice harvesting in Indonesia is wrapping up under favourable conditions. Due to high rainfall, dry-season rice sowing is continuing at a quicker rate than average. In Malaysia, wet-season rice is harvesting as dry-season rice is being sown. In Brunei, dry-season rice is being sown. In Viet Nam, dry-season rice (winter-spring rice) is under favourable conditions in the north as harvesting continues in the south. The sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn) is accelerating in the South. In Thailand, dry-season rice harvesting is wrapping up under poor conditions due to drought. The sowing of wet-season rice is starting with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last season. In the Philippines, dry-season rice harvesting is wrapping up with a slight yield loss due to reduced rainfall during the season. The sowing of wet-season rice is beginning. In Myanmar, the harvesting of dry-season rice is progressing. In Laos, dry-season rice is being harvested under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, the sowing of wet-season rice is underway. In the Americas, conditions are favourable in the US. In Cuba, sowing of the main season crop is underway. In Haiti, the Printemps season crop is under mixed conditions. In Brazil and Uruguay, harvesting wraps up under poor conditions due to excessive rainfall. In Argentina, harvesting is wrapping up. In MENA, conditions are favourable in Egypt and Iran.

For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.

SOYBEAN

Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of May 28th.

In South America, harvesting is wrapping up in Brazil’s South region with yields close to average despite periods of below and above-average rainfall and some damage from the flooding events in May. In Argentina, harvesting of the early-planting crop (typically larger season) is advancing with above-average yields in parts of Entre Ríos and Buenos Aires, albeit with below-average yields in the northeast due to drought. As harvesting begins for the late-planted crop (typically smaller season), good yields are expected due to timely rainfall in February. In Uruguay, harvesting is wrapping up after delays and with reduced quality due to excess rainfall. In North America, sowing continues in the US under favourable conditions with over half the crop in the ground. In Canada, sowing is beginning under generally favourable conditions with an expected slight decrease in the total sown area compared to last season. In Europe, sowing is wrapping up in Ukraine under generally favourable conditions in areas away from the war zone. In the Russian Federation, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Asia, sowing continues in China under favourable conditions with recent rainfall in the northeast assisting the emerging crop. In Africa, harvesting is wrapping up in South Africa under mostly poor conditions due to prolonged drought and high temperatures during the season.

For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.

Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.

Global Climate Influences

Reflecting a La Niña influence, the July to September seasonal forecasts indicate above-normal precipitation in India, the Maritime Continent, northern East Africa, and Central America. During late 2024 to early 2025, La Niña conditions would raise the chances of below-average precipitation in East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern US, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation would become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.

April 2024 was the hottest April on record and the 11th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures. 2024 will be among the top five warmest years on record, and possibly the warmest (61 percent chance). There will likely be impacts on agriculture from extreme heat, particularly if it occurs during periods of moisture stress or the key reproductive stages that determine final yields. Extreme heat also negatively affects agricultural labourers’ health and productivity.

Associated with the forecast La Niña and very warm ocean temperatures, the multi-year pattern of climate extremes may continue. A very active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is anticipated.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC

Regional Outlooks

The two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) continues to be influenced by the weakening El Niño event, while the long-range forecast (3 -months) is influenced by the likely development of a La Niña during the July to September period. Both forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures.

In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential areas of above-average precipitation over parts of northern California in the US, while below-average precipitation over the US southwest. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in the western US and Canada, while below-average over the US Midwest and mid-Atlantic. The long-term June-July-August 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows a leaning toward below-average precipitation over the US southwest. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across both Canada and the US, particularly along the East Coast and the Rockies. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the US.

In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over the Pacific Coast and southern Coast of Mexico and the Dominican Republic, while above-average over southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, and western Coast Rica. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average over most of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, and western Nicaragua. The long-term June-July-August 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests below-average precipitation over western Mexico, while above-average precipitation over southeastern Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across most of the region except for the western coast of Mexico. For further details, see the CM4AMIS regional outlook for Mexico and the CM4EW regional outlook for Central America and the Caribbean.

Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 - 21 June 2024, issued on 31 May 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom

In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over central and southeast Brazil, northern and eastern Bolivia, Paraguay, and Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across Columbia, northern Venezuela, Guyana, southern Suriname, southern French Guiana, Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, northern Chile, and eastern Paraguay, while below-average in southern Venezuela and central Brazil. The long-term June-July-August 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation across northern and western Columbia, northern Venezuela, and northern Guyana, while below-average across Peru, Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Chile, Argentina, and Uruguay. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the continent except for southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, coastal Peru, and coastal Ecuador.

In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over eastern Lithuania, western and eastern Ukraine, Moldovia, Bulgaria, eastern Greece, and the central Russian Federation, while above-average over Türkiye. Armenia, and Georgia. During this time, temperatures are leaning to above-average over eastern Spain, southern France, Italy, Austria, eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Poland, eastern Croatia, Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, Greece, Romania, Moldova, northern Bulgaria, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Ukraine, and southern and central Russian Federation. The long-term June-July-August 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) does not indicate any dominant tercile over Europe. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average across Europe, with the highest likelihood over central and southern Europe.

Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 - 21 June 2024, issued on 31 May 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom

In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) does not indicate any major probability of changes in precipitation. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central Algeria, Tunisia, southern Libya, central Egypt, southern Saudi Arabia, Iraq, eastern Syria, central Yemen, Oman, and central west Iran. The long-term June-July-August 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates precipitation is likely to be above-average over southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, northern Guinea, western Mali, western Burkina Faso, central Ethiopia, the central Democratic Republic of Congo, and southern South Africa. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the region except for the Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda, northern Angola, southern Namibia, central and western South Africa, and southern Madagascar. For the long-term June-July-August 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average in Niger, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, and northeast Democratic Republic of the Congo, while below-average over southern Namibia, South Africa, and Madagascar. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across all of Sub-Saharan Africa except for coastal Namibia. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa.

Figure 3: Probabilistic forecast for most likely June-July-August (JJA) 2024 rainfall tercile, based on May conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble

In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northwestern Kazakhstan, while above-average precipitation over northeastern Afghanistan and Tajikistan. During this time, temperatures are leaning towards being above-average in southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. The long-term June-July-August 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) does not indicate any dominant tercile for precipitation. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire region except for northern Kazakhstan.

In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Pakistan, northern and central India, western Nepal, and Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. The long-term June-July-August 2024 forecast indicates likely above-average precipitation over Pakistan, western and southern India, and Sri Lanka. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the region except for northern Pakistan, northern India, and western Nepal.

In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northern Mongolia, southwest and central China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and central Japan, while above-average over parts of southern China. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in western Mongolia, northern and central China, the central region of the Republic of Korea, and parts of Japan. The long-term June-July-August 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning toward above-average precipitation over eastern China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and central Japan. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region.

In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential below-average precipitation over southern Vietnam, southern Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Myanmar, northwest Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. The long-term June-July-August 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Thailand, northern Indonesia, and Malaysia, while below-average over the Philippines, and southern Indonesia. During the same time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region except for western Indonesia. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Southeast Asia.

Figure 4: Probabilistic forecast for most likely June-July-August (JJA) 2024 temperature tercile, based on May conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble