Global Crop Monitor
Report Information
No. 28: Published December 5th, 2024
Conditions as of November 28th
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Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions in conditions other than favourable are labelled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of November are favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans, while mixed for wheat. For wheat, conditions are mixed as harvesting continues in the southern hemisphere and sowing wraps up in the northern hemisphere. For maize, harvesting is wrapping up in the northern hemisphere under mixed conditions as sowing gathers pace in the southern hemisphere under favourable conditions. For rice, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with excessive wet conditions in parts of Bangladesh, the Philippines, and Malaysia. For soybeans, conditions are generally favourable as harvest is wrapping up in the northern hemisphere as sowing progresses in the southern hemisphere. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication
Global Climate Influences Overview
La Niña conditions will likely develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 72 percent chance of La Niña during December 2024 to February 2025. If La Niña does develop, it will likely be a weak and short-lived event, likely returning to ENSO-neutral conditions by March 2025. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index values were negative during October and November and have since returned to a neutral state. A transition to neutral IOD values is forecast during December. Global temperatures for January to October 2024 were the warmest on record with 2024 almost certainly becoming the warmest year on record.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In North America, winter wheat sowing in the US is wrapping up under generally favourable conditions. In Canada, winter wheat is under favourable conditions. In Mexico, the sowing of winter wheat is beginning. In South America, harvest is progressing in Argentina under mixed conditions, with lower yields in the north while near average yields in the south and east. In Brazil, harvesting is wrapping up under favorable conditions. There is a decrease in the total sown area compared to last year. In Uruguay, harvest is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Chile, overly dry conditions are developing. In Europe, above-average temperatures and drier weather have helped to accelerate sowing and early development, however, germination and initial crop development have been hindered in Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, and Romania. In the United Kingdom, conditions remain mixed due to earlier overly wet weather. In Türkiye, sowing is entering the prime window. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat sowing is wrapping up under mixed conditions with an expected decrease in total sown area compared to last year. In Ukraine, recent precipitation has improved soil moisture levels, however, a large portion of the crop remains less developed than average. In Central Asia, winter wheat is under favourable conditions in Kazakhstan. In Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan winter wheat sowing and early development are continuing under favourable conditions. In Afghanistan, winter wheat conditions are mixed due to erratic and below-average rainfall. In South Asia, sowing is beginning in India for the northern and central states. In Nepal, sowing continues under favourable conditions. In East Asia, winter wheat is under favourable conditions in China. In MENA, sowing of winter wheat is continuing in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran under mixed conditions due to early season dryness. In Syria, the recent resumption of hostilities is of concern in the northeast. In Sub-Saharan, harvesting is wrapping up in Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Lesotho under mostly favourable conditions except in Zambia, due to extensive load shedding, which reduced the availability of irrigation. In South Africa, harvest is ongoing with well above-average yields expected in Free State, Eastern Cape, and Northern Cape provinces. In Oceania, harvest in Australia is well underway with exceptional yields in New South Wales and Queensland; while below-average yields in South Australia and Victoria.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In North America, conditions in the US are mostly exceptional except in the minor producing regions of the East Coast as harvesting wraps up. In Canada, the season is ending with above-average yields in Manitoba and Ontario. In Central America & the Caribbean, harvest is beginning in Mexico for the spring-summer crop (larger season) under mixed conditions due to dry weather earlier in the season. Sowing has begun for the Autumn-winter season (smaller season). In El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and western Nicaragua, there is concern for the Segunda/Postrera season due to a combination of erratic rainfall outcomes, hot temperatures, and recent storm impacts. In Cuba, harvesting of main-season maize is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Haiti, Été season crops are wrapping up. In South America, rainfall continues to support the sowing and crop development in Brazil of the spring-planted crop (smaller season). In Argentina, sowing and early development of the early-planted crop (usually larger season) are continuing under favourable conditions owing to good water availability. In Uruguay, sowing is progressing under favourable conditions. In Europe, harvest is wrapping up in Ukraine under mixed conditions due to in-season drought. In the Russian Federation, harvest is ending with below-average yields due to hot and dry weather during the summer. In Asia, the harvest of the Kharif crop (larger season) in India is wrapping up as the sowing of the Rabi crop (smaller season) begins. In Pakistan, the harvest of Kharif (summer) season is wrapping up. In Sri Lanka, the sowing of the Maha season (larger season) crop continues under favourable conditions. In East Africa, heavy rains and flooding have contributed to poor yields in parts of South Sudan. In Ethiopia, harvesting of Meher season cereals continues under generally favourable conditions, however, the prior conflict situation continues to cause socio-economic challenges for production in the northern regions. In Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Somalia, Uganda, and the United Republic of Tanzania conditions are mixed due to delayed and below-average rains at the beginning of the season. In West Africa, harvesting of the main season crop is wrapping up in Benin, central Cameroon, the Central African Republic, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and Togo. Additionally, second-season cereals are in the vegetative to the reproductive stage along the Gulf of Guinea, and harvesting is now underway in Nigeria and Cameroon. In Southern Africa, average to above-average November rainfall in South Africa has increased sowing activities. Sowing is now underway in Angola, Botswana, eSwatini, Lesotho, Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In East Asia, harvesting is wrapping up in China for the late double-crop. In Central & South Asia, harvest in India of the Kharif crop (larger season) is wrapping up in the northern and central states, while progressing in the southern and eastern states. In Pakistan, harvesting of Kharif (summer) season rice continues. In Afghanistan, harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, the Aman crop (mid-sized season) harvest has begun with some losses expected in the eastern and southern districts due to heavy rains and flooding. Sowing is beginning for the Boro crop (largest season). In Sri Lanka, the sowing of Maha season (larger season) crops continues under favourable conditions. In Nepal, the harvest of main-season rice is underway. In Southeast Asia, harvesting of dry-season rice is ongoing while the sowing of wet-season rice continues at a faster pace than last year. In Malaysia, harvesting of dry-season rice is wrapping up as the sowing of wet-season rice continues under mixed conditions. In Brunei, the harvest of dry-season rice wrapping up as the transplanting of wet-season rice begins. In Viet Nam, wet-season rice (summer-autumn and seasonal) is harvesting in the north under favourable conditions. In the south, the harvest of the autumn-winter and seasonal rice crops (wet-season) as the sowing begins for winter-spring season rice (dry-season). In Thailand, wet-season rice is harvesting under favourable conditions. In the Philippines, harvesting of wet-season rice continues under mixed conditions, primarily in the north due to lodging and flooding during several typhoon landfalls. In Myanmar, wet-season rice is under mostly favourable conditions as harvesting begins. In Cambodia, the harvest of wet-season rice is wrapping up as the sowing of dry-season rice continues. In the Americas, sowing is progressing in Brazil with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Uruguay, excessive rainfall pushed the sowing of the crop outside of the optimal window. In Cuba, the harvesting of main-season rice wraps up as the sowing of the second-season rice begins. In MENA, conditions are favourable in Egypt for the Nili season (Nile Flood) crops. In Iraq, rice harvest is underway in the south.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data.
In North America, harvest is wrapping up in Canada with above-average yields in the major producing provinces of Ontario and Manitoba. In Mexico, harvest is progressing under favourable conditions. In Asia, conditions are favourable in India as harvest wraps up. In Europe, harvest is wrapping up in the Russian Federation with poor yields in the south due to hot and dry weather during the season. In Africa, sowing is beginning in South Africa under generally favourable conditions, albeit with some dryness in Mpumalanga. In South America, sowing and early crop development in Brazil are progressing under favourable conditions, supported by good rainfall and soil moisture levels. An increase in total sown area is estimated compared to last year. In Argentina, sowing of the early-planting crop (typically larger season) is about halfway complete with good soil moisture conditions supporting early crop development. In Uruguay, sowing and early crop development are progressing with good soil moisture
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
La Niña conditions will likely develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 72 percent chance of La Niña during December 2024 to February 2025. If La Niña does develop, it will likely be a weak (0.5-1.0C) and short-lived event, likely returning to ENSO-neutral conditions by March 2025. However, forecast very warm western Pacific Ocean conditions would strengthen temperature gradients, which could potentially enhance or prolong La Niña’s impacts.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index values were negative during October and November and have since returned to a neutral state. These conditions led to an extremely poor rainfall season in Somalia, with implications for crop failure and severely degraded pasture conditions.
Global temperatures for January to October 2024 were the warmest on record with 2024 almost certainly becoming the warmest year on record.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Regional Outlooks
The long-range forecast (3 months) is influenced by the possible development of a La Niña, while both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-range forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over northwest Canada, while below-average precipitation over eastern and central Canada, and the western and central US. During the same time, temperatures will likely be above-average across most of western Canada and the southwest US, while below-average across eastern Canada and the US northeast. The long-term December-January-February 2024/2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows a leaning toward above-average precipitation over Canada and the US northwest, while below-average precipitation is likely across the US southwest and southeast. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across eastern Canada across most of the US except for the northwest and west coast.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southeast Mexico, Belize, northern Guatemala, Honduras, and northern Nicaragua, while below-average precipitation over western Mexico and Haiti. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average over northern and central Mexico, Guatemala, southern Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The long-term December-January-February 2024/2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests above-average precipitation over Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, and Jamaica, while below-average precipitation is likely over northern and central Mexico. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across most of the region except for the Baja California peninsula in Mexico, Costa Rica, and western Panama.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 - 20 December 2024, issued on 29 November 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Peru, southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, and northeast and southcentral Argentina, while below-average precipitation is likely over northern and central Columbia, western Venezuela, Ecuador, northwest Peru, Suriname, northern French Guiana, northern to southeast Brazil, southwest Bolivia, northern and southern Chile, eastern Argentina, and western Uruguay. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over western Columbia, northern Venezuela, northern and eastern Brazil, Ecuador, western Peru, southwest Bolivia, northern and southern Chile, and northwest and southern Argentina, while temperatures will likely be below-average over central Argentina. The long-term December-January-February 2024/2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation over Columbia, Venezuela, and northwest Brazil, while below-average precipitation is likely over northeast Brazil, southern Chile, and southern Argentina. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average for the majority of the continent except for the west coast of Columbia, coastal Ecuador, coastal Peru, and coastal Chile. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Argentina and Brazil.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates a leaning to above-average precipitation over southern France, northern Spain, and central Italy, while likely below-average precipitation over Portugal, western Spain, central Norway, western Sweden, eastern Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, eastern Ukraine, and the eastern and western Russia Federation. During this time, temperatures are likely to be around average or with no dominant tercile over Europe. The long-term December-January-February 2024/2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) Indicates a leaning toward above-average precipitation over northern Norway, Sweden, and Finland, while a leaning toward below-average over Portugal, Spain, southern France, and Türkiye. During the same period, temperatures are leaning to above-average across most of Europe, with the highest likelihood over Ireland, the United Kingdom, southern France, Italy, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, and Greece.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for for 7 - 20 December 2024, issued on 29 November 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over western Morocco, central Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Kuwait, and Iran. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northern Morocco and Tunisia, while below-average over southern Saudi Arabia, eastern Yemen, and southeastern Iran. The long-term December-January-February 2024/2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Iraq, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across western Morocco, northern Tunisia, northeastern Libya, northern Egypt, southwest Saudi Arabia, southwest Yemen, eastern Oman, and southeast Iran. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for MENA.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over western Angola, central Tanzania, west coast of Madagascar, while below-average precipitation over southern Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, southern Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, northern Gabon, the Republic of the Congo, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, southern South Sudan, Uganda, southern and central Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, southeast Angola, southern Zambia, northeastern Namibia, northern Botswana, northern Zimbabwe, western Mozambique, central South Africa, western Madagascar. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, southern Republic of the Congo, southeast Angola, southern Zambia, northeast Namibia, Botswana, northwest Zimbabwe, northern South Africa, Eswatini, and southwest Madagascar, while below-average over Senegal, the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, western Liberia, southern Mali, Burkina Faso, northern Côte d'Ivoire, northern Ghana, northern Benin, Togo, northeast Nigeria, southern Chad, the Central African Republic, western Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania, and northern Mozambique. Forthelong-term December-January-February 2024/2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average over Tanzania, while below-average over Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Republic of the Congo, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Angola, and northern Namibia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the coastal regions of West Africa and East Africa, while in the interiors of Central and Southern Africa. For further details, see the CM4EWregional outlooks for East Africa and Southern Africa, and the CM4AMIS outlook on South Africa
Figure 3: Probabilistic forecast for most likely December-January-February (DJF) 2024/2025 rainfall tercile, based on November conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over eastern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be below-average in Tajikistan and northern Afghanistan. The long-term December-January-February 2024/2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation over southern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across eastern Afghanistan. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northwestern Pakistan and southern Sri Lanka. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across southern Sri Lanka, and parts of southern India, while below-average over Pakistan, northern and central India, and Bangladesh. The long-term December-January-February 2024/2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely below-average precipitation in Pakistan and northern India. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Pakistan, coastal and northeast India, eastern Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for Central and Southern Asia.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over eastern China, while below-average over Mongolia, northwest and northeast China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and southern Japan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be below-average across parts of central and southern China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and southern Japan. The long-term December-January-February 2024/2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning toward below-average precipitation over southwest China, the Republic of Korea, and southern Japan. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northeast and southwest China, eastern Mongolia, southern the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, and Japan.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential above-average southern Thailand, southern Viet Nam, western Malaysia, southern and eastern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and northern and eastern Australia, while below-average over western Indonesia and southwest Australia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, southern Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, the western and the northern coast of Australia, and New Zealand. The long-term December-January-February 2024/2025 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Viet Nam, southern Thailand, the Philippines, southern Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. During the same time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over Myanmar, western and southern Thailand, southern Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, western and southern Australia, and New Zealand.
Figure 4: Probabilistic forecast for most likely December-January-February (DJF) 2024/2025 temperature tercile, based on November conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble