Global Crop Monitor
Report Information
No. 25: Published September 5th, 2024
Conditions as of August 28th
For access to all reports, please visit the Archive.
Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor crops as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of August are favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans, while negative for wheat. For wheat, yields are likely reduced in parts of Canada, Europe, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. For maize, conditions are exceptional in most of the US, while areas of concern remain in Central America, Europe, the southern Russian Federation, Ukraine, and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. For rice, conditions are generally favourable except for minor areas in Asia, Central America, and parts of West Africa. For soybeans, conditions are generally favourable except in parts of Eastern Europe, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
ENSO-neutral conditions have been present since June 2024. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 67 to 74 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025. 2024 will rank among the warmest years on record. Above-average temperatures are forecast in many regions during late 2024, continuing the elevated likelihood of adverse heat impacts. For further details, see the Global Climate Influences section.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of August 28th.
North America, the harvesting of winter wheat in the US wraps up and progresses for spring wheat with above-average yields. In Canada, spring wheat harvesting is ongoing under variable conditions due to prolonged hot and dry weather in the western Prairies. In Europe, harvest is wrapping up in the EU with poor yields in Belgium, France, and Italy, conversely with exceptional conditions in Bulgaria, Romania, and Spain. In the UK, harvest is wrapping up with below-average yields. In Türkiye, harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Ukraine, harvesting is concluding with exceptional yields in the western regions and poor yields in the eastern and southern regions due to dry weather and the ongoing war. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat harvest is nearing completion with reduced yields due to a frost event in May followed by hot and dry weather in June. Spring wheat harvest is beginning under favourable conditions. In Central Asia, winter wheat harvesting has been finalized in southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan under favourable conditions. Spring wheat harvesting is underway in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan while crops continue to develop in Kyrgyzstan and Mongolia, and overall conditions remain favourable. In East Asia, spring wheat is being harvested in China. In MENA, harvesting of spring wheat is nearing completion in Yemen with concerns due to heavy rainfall and flooding in the west. In Sub-Saharan, crops continue to develop under favourable conditions in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho, with harvesting activities will begin in September. The total sown area is near-average. In Ethiopia, heavy rainfall and socio-economic issues remain a concern. In South America, conditions are mixed in Argentina due to a lack of soil moisture and low temperatures in the central and northern regions, delaying crop growth. In Brazil, conditions are favourable in the main producing south region, however, hot and dry weather is a concern in the southeast region. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable, despite recent cold weather. In Oceania, conditions in Australia are exceptional in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, however, dry conditions remain in parts of South Australia and Victoria.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of August 28th.
In South America, harvesting in Brazil of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is wrapping up ahead of last season and under generally favourable conditions except in the southeast region due to earlier hot and dry weather. In Central America & the Caribbean, sowing in Mexico of the spring-summer crop (larger season) is progressing under mixed conditions due to the late arrival of rains. Harvesting of Primera season crops is nearing completion in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, and conditions are generally favourable except in central and eastern Guatemala where there are dry and hot concerns. In Cuba, harvesting of main-season maize continues under favourable conditions. In Haiti, harvesting of Printemps season crops is wrapping up as the sowing of Été season crops continues. In North America, conditions are exceptional in the US across most of the Corn Belt, however, earlier hot and dry weather has likely impacted crop yields along the East Coast. There is a reduction in the total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable. In Europe, hot and dry weather in the EU continues to negatively impact crops in Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, and Romania. In Ukraine, July’s long heatwave combined with an expanding drought during August in the southern, central, and eastern regions has severely degraded potential yields. In the Russian Federation, hot and dry weather has negatively impacted crop yields in the south. In Asia, conditions are favourable in China for both spring-planted and summer-planted crops. In India, conditions are favourable for the Kharif crop (larger season) with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Pakistan, the Kharif (summer) crop is under favourable conditions. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, harvesting is ongoing. Torrential rains in July impacted one of the main producing Cereal Bowl provinces of North Pyongan. In Sri Lanka, harvesting of the second-season crop is just beginning with concerns remaining in the east due to ongoing seasonal dry conditions. In East Africa, concern remains in Ethiopia for the Meher crops in central and northeastern parts of the country, where overly wet conditions continue to impact crop development, and concern remains in prior conflict-affected areas of the north. In southern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is nearing completion with poor end-of-season conditions expected in parts of Uganda, Kenya, and Somalia because of mixed dry and wet rainfall outcomes this season. In West Africa, harvesting of main season crops is underway in Liberia, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria while sowing continues in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Cote d’Ivoire, northern Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, sowing of second-season maize is underway in Nigeria and southern Cameroon.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of August 28th.
In East Asia, conditions are favourable in China as single-season crop harvesting begins and the late double-crop continues to develop. In the Republic of Korea, conditions are favourable. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, torrential rains in July impacted one of the main producing Cereal Bowl provinces of North Pyongan located in the northwest. In Japan, conditions are generally favourable, however, a lack of sunlight and the recent landfall of Typhoon Shanshan have likely impacted yields in the southwest. In South Asia, the transplanting of the Kharif crop (larger season) is progressing in India supported by good August rainfall. In Pakistan, Kharif (summer) season rice is under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, harvesting is wrapping up for the Aus crop (smallest season) as flooding in the east impacts the Aman crop (mid-sized season). In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Yala season rice is just beginning, and concern remains in the east due to ongoing seasonal dry conditions. In Nepal, main-season rice is under favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, the sowing and harvesting of dry-season rice continues in Indonesia with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Malaysia & Brunei, harvesting of dry-season rice is beginning under favourable conditions. In Viet Nam, wet-season rice (summer-autumn) is developing in the north alongside the sowing of the main wet-season rice (seasonal). In the south, harvesting of wet-season rice (summer-autumn) continues alongside the development of the other wet-season rice (autumn-winter and seasonal). In Thailand, wet-season rice is in the tillering stage under favourable conditions. In the Philippines, harvest is beginning for wet-season rice under mixed conditions due to recent heavy rainfall damage from an enhanced southwest monsoon and previous dry weather during sowing. In Myanmar, the sowing of wet-season rice is at its peak. In Cambodia, conditions are favourable. In the Americas, conditions are favourable in the US. In Cuba, the main-season crop is under favourable conditions. In Haiti, harvesting of main-season rice is underway. In MENA, conditions are favourable in both Egypt and Iran.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of August 28th.
In North America, conditions are exceptional in the US across a large portion of the major producing states with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable, however, exceptionally hot and dry conditions in Saskatchewan have accelerated development, leading to possible yield declines. In Asia, conditions are favourable in China as the crops are in the pod-filling stage. In India, conditions are favourable with a slight increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Europe, conditions are generally favourable in the EU, except in Romania and Hungary, due to hot and dry weather. In Ukraine, a hot and dry August has spread and deepened the ongoing drought conditions in the southern and eastern regions, however, the biggest damage to crop yields was during the July heatwave. Conditions remain favourable in the western region. In the Russian Federation, conditions are mixed due to hot and dry weather, particularly in the southern region, In Africa, conditions are favourable in Nigeria, however, in the north, socio-economic issues are impacting crops.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
ENSO-neutral conditions have been present since June 2024. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 67 to 74 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States of America, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
July 2024 was the hottest July on record and the 14th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures according to NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). 2024 will rank among the warmest years on record. Above-average temperatures are forecast in many regions during late 2024, continuing the elevated likelihood of adverse heat impacts. Excessive heat can be particularly damaging during periods of moisture stress or reproductive stages that determine final yields.
Associated with the forecast La Niña and very warm temperatures, the multi-year pattern of climate extremes may continue. According to NOAA’s August update, there is a 90% chance of an overall highly active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane activity typically peaks from mid-August to October.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Regional Outlooks
The long-range forecast (3-months) is influenced by the forecasted development of a La Niña, while both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-range forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential areas of above-average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest Coast in the US and Canada, while below-average precipitation over Prairies and western Ontario in Canada, the central US. During the same time, temperatures will likely be above-average across most of the Prairies in Canada and the western US, while below-average across the US East Coast and Gulf Coast. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows a leaning toward below-average precipitation over the western, central, and southeast US. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across both eastern Canada and the southwest US. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the US.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northwest and central Mexico. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average over most of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, Nicaragua, and Costa Rica. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests below-average precipitation over northwestern Mexico, while a slight leaning towards above-average precipitation over the rest of the region. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across most of the region except for the Baja California peninsula in Mexico. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for Central America and the Caribbean.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 September 2024, issued on 30 August 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil, Ecuador, central Peru, central and eastern Paraguay, and southern Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the continent, with the highest likelihood over western Columbia, northern Venezuela, southern Suriname, southern French Guiana, and northern Brazil. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely below-average precipitation across eastern and southern Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and northeast Brazil, Ecuador, northern Peru, northern Bolivia, Chile, and central and western Argentina. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the continent except for Coastal Peru, southern Argentina, and southern Chile. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Argentina.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Italy, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, western Bulgaria, northern Greece, and northwest Türkiye, while below-average precipitation over Ireland, Scotland, central England, northeast Germany, northern Poland, southern Norway, Sweden, southern Finland, northern and eastern Ukraine, central and eastern Russian Federation, eastern Georgia, Azerbaijan, and eastern Armenia. During this time, temperatures are leaning to above-average over eastern Poland, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary, Romania, Moldova, Bulgaria, eastern Serbia, Greece, Türkiye, western and southern Russian Federation, Georgia, Armenia, and eastern Azerbaijan. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) Indicates a leaning toward below-average precipitation over Spain, southwest and central Türkiye. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average across most of Europe, with the highest likelihood surrounding the Mediterranean.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 September 2024, issued on 30 August 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Tunisia, northern Algeria, eastern Morocco, while below-average precipitation over northwest Iran. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, and western Iran. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates precipitation is likely to be near normal across much of the region except for leaning towards below-average precipitation over Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Mauritania, Mali, northern Guinea, Burkina Faso, western Niger, northern Benin, northwest Nigeria, northern Cameroon, and the western Central African Republic, while below-average precipitation over coastal Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, coastal Gabon, southwest Republic of the Congo, western and southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, central Ethiopia, Somalia, and western South Africa. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northeast Niger, northern Chad, northern Sudan, southern Nigeria, southwest Cameroon, western and southern Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, southern Democratic Republic of Congo, southern Angola, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, northern Zimbabwe, Namibia, Botswana, central South Africa, Lesotho, and Madagascar, while below-average in Senegal, southern Mauritania, central Mali, Burkina Faso, and southwest Niger. For the long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average in eastern Mali, Niger, Chad, northern Central African Republic, southern Sudan, South Sudan, western Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, northern Tanzania, and eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, while below-average over Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Gabon, Republic of the Congo, western Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana, and central South Africa. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across most of Sub-Saharan Africa except for central Niger, central Chad, southern Sudan, southwest Ethiopia, northwest Kenya, coastal Namibia, and southwest South Africa. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa, West Africa, and Southern Africa.
Figure 3: Probabilistic forecast for most likely September-October-November (SON) 2024 rainfall tercile, based on August conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, and western Tajikistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be below-average in in western Kazakhstan, northern Kyrgyzstan central Uzbekistan, and central Turkmenistan. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning to below-average precipitation over southern Kazakhstan, western Kyrgyzstan, eastern Uzbekistan, southern Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation northern Pakistan, northern and southern India, Nepal, northern Bangladesh, and Bhutan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in southwest Pakistan, northwestern and northeastern India, Nepal, Bhutan, and southeast Sri Lanka, while below-average over eastern Pakistan and western India. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, while below-average over northern Pakistan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the region except for eastern Pakistan and central India.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over central-west China, while below-average over western Mongolia and northern and southern China. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across southwest and southern China, while below-average across north central and northeast China and northern Democratic Republic of Korea. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning toward above-average precipitation over coastal China. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the region.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential above-average precipitation over Laos, north and northeast Thailand, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and northern Papua New Guinea, while below-average over northern Myanmar, eastern Malaysia, and Indonesia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over northeast Myanmar, northern Thailand, Laos, northern and central Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia, while a leaning towards below-average in southern Australia. The long-term September-October-November 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over southern Myanmar, Thailand, southern Laos, Viet Nam, Cambodia, the Philippines, eastern Malaysia, eastern Indonesia, and Papua New Guinea. During the same time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region except for southern Australia. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Australia.
Figure 4: Probabilistic forecast for most likely September-October-November (SON) 2024 temperature tercile, based on August conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble