Global Crop Monitor
Report Information
No. 24: Published August 1st, 2024
Conditions as of July 28th
For access to all reports, please visit the Archive.
Synthesized from the Crop Monitor for AMIS, the Crop Monitor for Early Warning, and direct submissions from individual countries.
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor crops as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
Global Crop Overview
Global crop conditions at the end of July are favourable for rice and soybeans, mixed for maize, and then negative for wheat. For wheat, there are areas of concern in Europe, North & East Africa, southern Australia, and East Africa. For maize, areas of concern remain in Central America, China, Europe, South America, and Sub-Saharan Africa. For rice, conditions are generally favourable except for in eastern India, Southeast Asia, and parts of West Africa. For soybeans, conditions are generally favourable except in parts of China, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.
Global Climate Influences Overview
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 70 to 81% chance of La Niña during August 2024 to February 2025. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently neutral. Observations have trended toward a negative IOD in recent weeks, with several models predicting a negative IOD during September to November 2024. For further details, see the Global Climate Influences section.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
WHEAT
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of July 28th.
In North America, winter wheat harvest progresses in the US with good yields as spring wheat develops under exceptional conditions. In Canada, spring wheat remains under favourable conditions. In Mexico, conditions remain mixed for winter wheat. In Europe, harvest is progressing in the EU, with poor conditions in France and Italy, while exceptional conditions are in Bulgaria, Romania, and Spain. In the UK, overly wet conditions earlier in the season have resulted in expected below-average yields. In Türkiye, conditions are favourable as harvesting continues. In Ukraine, harvesting is progressing with exceptional yields in the western regions while dry weather and the ongoing war have impacted final yields in the eastern and southern regions. In the Russian Federation, harvest is continuing for winter wheat with reduced yields due to a frost event in May followed by hot and dry weather in June. Spring wheat is under favourable conditions, albeit with a reduction in total sown area due to cold and wet conditions during sowing. In Central Asia, In Central and South Asia, winter wheat harvesting is wrapping up in southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Spring wheat continues to develop in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia. In East Asia, conditions are favourable in China for spring wheat. In Afghanistan, rainfed wheat harvesting is now underway. In Mongolia, spring wheat is under favourable conditions. In MENA, harvesting is wrapping up with below to well below-average yields in most of Morocco, Algeria, south-central Tunisia, and northwestern Libya. In Sub-Saharan, conditions are favourable in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho. In Syria, good rains contributed to adequate crop development and above-average biomass across the country. However, socio-economic challenges relating to protracted conflict continue to constrain agricultural outcomes. In South America, sowing is wrapping up in Argentina under favourable conditions, albeit with a recent cold wave slowing early crop development. In Brazil, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Uruguay, conditions are favourable, albeit with uneven rains. In Chile, conditions are dry. In Oceania, July rainfall in Australia continues to support crop development across most of the country, however, soil moisture deficits remain in parts of South Australia and Victoria.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
MAIZE
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of July 28th.
In South America, harvesting in Brazil of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is progressing with concern in the South and Southeast regions due to the lack of rain and high temperatures during the reproductive stages. However, conditions are favourable in the Central West region. In Argentina, harvesting of the late-planted crop (smaller season) is speeding up, however, yields have been reduced in the central and northern regions due to the impact of corn stunt disease. In Central America & the Caribbean, harvesting in Mexico is wrapping up for the autumn-winter crop (smaller season) under poor conditions due to hot and dry conditions during the season. The sowing of the spring-summer crop (larger season) progresses under mixed conditions. The harvesting of Primera season cereals is now underway in Guatemala while crops continue to develop in El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. In Cuba, the harvest of main-season maize continues. In Haiti, harvesting of Printemps season crops continues while planting of Été season crops begins. In North America, conditions are favourable in the US across the main producing Corn Belt, however, hot and dry weather has impacted crops in parts of the Southeast. In Canada, conditions are favourable. In Europe, conditions are generally favourable in the EU, albeit with hot and dry weather continuing to negatively impact crops in southeastern Romania. In Ukraine, a long heatwave combined with a lack of precipitation in the southern, central, and eastern regions has severely degraded potential yields. In the Russian Federation, recent hot and dry weather is negatively impacting crops. In Asia, conditions are mixed in China, as persistent hot and dry weather in June switched to excessive rainfall and flooding in the northern Yangtze Valley and the North China Plain. In India, sowing of the Kharif crop (larger season) is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, harvesting of summer/Kharif season maize is wrapping up. In Pakistan, the sowing of the Kharif (summer) season is continuing. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conditions are favourable. In Sri Lanka, conditions for the second-season crop remain favourable except in the northeast where there is ongoing dryness. In East Africa, the harvesting of Belg season maize finalized in Ethiopia with below-average yields in the centre and north. Harvesting of first-season crops is now underway in South Sudan. Across southern East Africa, harvesting of main season crops is wrapping up in the bimodal areas of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, the United Republic of Tanzania, bimodal areas of Kenya, and Somalia while sowing and development continues in unimodal areas of Uganda, Kenya, and Eritrea. In West Africa, harvesting of main-season crops is just beginning in some southern areas while sowing and development continue elsewhere.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
RICE
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of July 28th.
In East Asia, harvesting in China is wrapping up for the early double-crop as the sowing of the late double-crop wraps up. Single-season rice is under favourable conditions. In the Republic of Korea, excess rainfall has brought floods. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conditions are favourable. In South Asia, the transplanting of the Kharif crop (larger season) in India is ongoing, albeit delayed in a few eastern states due to rainfall deficits. In Bangladesh, harvesting is continuing for the Aus crop (smallest season) as the sowing of the Aman crop (mid-sized season) continues. In Sri Lanka, Yala season crops are under favourable conditions except in the northeast where there are ongoing dry concerns. In Nepal, sowing of main-season rice continues. In Southeast Asia, the sowing of dry-season rice in Indonesia continues as harvesting of earlier sown crops begins under favourable conditions. In Malaysia, the sowing of dry-season rice is wrapping up as the harvesting of early-sown rice continues. In Brunei, dry-season rice is developing with concerns from brown plant hoppers. In Viet Nam, sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn) continues in the north as growing conditions improve in the south while harvesting of earlier sown rice begins. In Thailand, the sowing of wet-season rice is continuing under favourable conditions, albeit with a likely reduction in the total sown area compared to the 5-year average. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under mixed conditions with lower yields expected due to below-average rainfall across most of the country. Conversely, continuous rains have caused flooding in some provinces of Mindanao. In Myanmar, the sowing of wet-season rice is continuing under favourable conditions. In Cambodia, there is concern due to limited precipitation and pest occurrence. In the Americas, conditions are favourable in the US. In Cuba, the sowing of the main-season crop continues under favourable conditions. In Haiti, the Printemps season crop is under favourable conditions. In MENA, sowing has wrapped up in Iran under favourable conditions. In Egypt, summer-planted rice is in the vegetative to reproductive stage while the sowing of the Nili season (Nile flood) rice is just beginning.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
SOYBEAN
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Conditions are based upon information as of July 28th.
In North America, conditions are favourable in the US with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable, albeit with some areas of excess moisture in parts of Manitoba, Ontario, and Saskatchewan. In Asia, conditions are generally favourable in China, however, excessive rainfall in parts of the upper Yangtze Valley and the North China Plain is inundating fields. In India, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Europe, conditions are generally favourable in the EU, except in Romania, due to hot and dry weather. Above-average yields are expected. particularly in Italy, Hungary, and Slovakia. In Ukraine, a long heatwave combined with a lack of precipitation in the southern, central, and eastern regions has severely degraded potential yields. However, conditions remain favourable in the western region, where there has been a large shift toward growing more soybeans since the beginning of the war. In the Russian Federation, conditions are mixed due to hot and dry weather, particularly in the southern region, In Africa, conditions are favourable in Nigeria.
For detailed description of the pie chart, please see box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country's share of total Global production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 90-95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5-10 percent grouped into the “Smaller Producing Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (e.g., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than ‘favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Global Climate Influences
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 70 to 81% chance of La Niña during August 2024 to February 2025.
Reflecting a La Niña influence, the August-to-October seasonal forecasts indicate above-normal precipitation in India, the Maritime Continent, northern East Africa, the African Sahel region, and Central America. During late 2024 to early 2025, La Niña would raise the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation would become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently neutral. Observations have trended toward a negative IOD in recent weeks, with several models predicting a negative IOD during September to November 2024. Negative IOD conditions are associated with low rainfall in East Africa.
June 2024 was the hottest June on record, and the 13th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures. 2024 will be among the top five warmest years on record. There will likely be agricultural impacts from extreme heat, particularly if heat occurs during periods of moisture stress or the key reproductive stages that determine final yields.
Associated with the forecast La Niña and very warm temperatures, the multi-year pattern of climate extremes may continue. A very active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is anticipated.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Regional Outlooks
The long-range forecast (3 -months) is influenced by the likely development of a La Niña from August 2024 to February 2025. Both the short-term (2 weeks) and the long-range forecasts reflect the warming global temperatures.
In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential areas of above-average precipitation over Alaska, while below-average precipitation over British Columbia and the western Prairies of Canada along with the Pacific Northwest and southern Great Plains of the US. During the same time, temperatures will likely be above-average across most of Canada and the continental US. The long-term August-September-October 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows a leaning toward below-average precipitation over the western and central US, while leaning towards above-average in Florida. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across both Canada and the US, except for the West Coast of both countries. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the US.
In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over northwest and central Mexico. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average over most of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, and southern Cuba, while below-average over southern Nicaragua. The long-term August-September-October 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests below-average precipitation over northwestern Mexico, while above-average precipitation over the rest of the region. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across most of the region except for the Baja California peninsula in Mexico. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlook for Central America and the Caribbean.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 3 – 16 August 2024, issued on 26 July 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, and northern and northeast Brazil, while above-average over central Peru, northern and eastern Bolivia, and central and southeast Brazil. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, and northern Bolivia, while below-average in central and southern Argentina. The long-term August-September-October 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely below-average precipitation across eastern Columbia, southern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and central Brazil, Ecuador, eastern Peru, northern Bolivia, Chile, and central and western Argentina. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over most of the continent except for southern Brazil, Uruguay, southern and eastern Argentina, southern Chile, and coastal Peru. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Argentina.
In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over the western United Kingdom, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, western Türkiye, western Russian Federation. During this time, temperatures are leaning to above-average over eastern Germany, Poland, Czechia, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Kosovo, Albania, Greece, North Macedonia, northern Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, western and southern Russian Federation, and western Türkiye. The long-term August-September-October 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) Indicates a leaning toward below-average precipitation over Spain, France, Belgium, the southern UK, parts of Italy, and Greece. During the same period, temperatures will likely be above-average across most of Europe, with the highest likelihood surrounding the Mediterranean. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for Europe.
Figure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 3 – 16 August 2024, issued on 26 July 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Yemen and Oman. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over eastern Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, eastern Saudi Arabia, and Iran. The long-term August-September-October 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates precipitation is likely to be near normal across much of the region except for likely above-average precipitation in southern Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Oman. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region.
In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over western Mauritania, northern Senegal, Sierra Leone, southern Guinea, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern Nigeria, western Cameroon, Gabon, central Republic of the Congo, western Democratic Republic of Congo, southern Uganda, and northern and northeast Tanzania, while above-average precipitation over Mali, Niger, Chad, Sudan, Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, and southern Somalia. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across southern Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, Central African Republic, Gabon, western Ethiopia, Kenya, central Somalia, Tanzania, northern Mozambique, and Madagascar, while below-average in southern Mali, Burkina Faso, southern Niger, central Chad, South Sudan, and northeast Ethiopia. For the long-term August-September-October 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be above-average in Niger, Chad, Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, northern Tanzania, and northeast Democratic Republic of the Congo, while below-average over Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern Nigeria, Cameroon, Gabon, Republic of the Congo, and western Democratic Republic of the Congo. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across most of Sub-Saharan Africa except for central Niger, central Chad, southwest Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, northwest Kenya, and coastal Namibia. For further details, see the CM4EW regional outlooks for East Africa and West Africa.
Figure 3: Probabilistic forecast for most likely August-September-October (ASO) 2024 rainfall tercile, based on June conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble
In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over northern Kazakhstan and southeastern Afghanistan, while below-average precipitation over southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan. The long-term August-September-October 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates near-normal precipitation over most of the region. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan.
In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Pakistan and northwest India. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in northeastern Pakistan, northwestern and northeastern India, Nepal, and Bhutan, while below-average over central west India and eastern Pakistan. The long-term August-September-October 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over the entire region except for Sri Lanka. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the region except for central Pakistan and northwest India.
In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over western Mongolia, the Republic of Korea, and Japan, while above-average in parts of central China. During this time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region. The long-term August-September-October 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates a leaning toward above-average precipitation over most of the region except for central China. During that time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average over the entire region.
In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates potential below-average precipitation over southern Viet Nam, southern Laos, Cambodia, southern Thailand, western Indonesia, and northeast Australia, while above-average central Indonesia and southeastern Australia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over Viet Nam, southern Laos, Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia, while below-average in southwest Cambodia. The long-term August-September-October 2024 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation over Indonesia, Malaysia, and Papua New Guinea, while a leaning to above-average across most of the rest of the region except for western Australia and southern Indonesia. During the same time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across the entire region except for southern Australia.
Figure 4: Probabilistic forecast for most likely August-September-October (ASO) 2024 rainfall tercile, based on June conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble