Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 98: Published October 3rd, 2024
Conditions as of September 28th
For access to all reports, please visit the Archive.
Please visit the Referencing Guidelines page for information on how to cite the Crop Monitor reports and products.
Overview
In northern East Africa, a combination of flooding and conflict continue to impact crop production in many areas, except in Ethiopia where the agroclimatic conditions have generally benefitted Meher season crops. In the south, conditions are mostly favourable for main season crops, though there is concern for the upcoming secondary cropping season due to the forecast La Niña event (See Global Climate Influences Pg. 3). In West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is nearing completion in the south and is just beginning along the Sahel, and crop conditions remain generally favourable despite erratic rainfall patterns, except in conflict-affected areas and in northern Ghana where there was a prolonged dry spell. In the Middle East & North Africa, planting for the 2024/25 wheat season will begin in October. In Iraq and Iran, rice cultivation continues with near-average yields expected. In Southern Africa, planting for the 2024/25 main agricultural season will commence in October. Conditions are generally favourable for winter wheat except in Zambia where low reservoir levels and power cuts could impact final yields. In Central & South Asia, harvesting for the 2023/24 wheat season is nearing completion under favourable conditions except in northern Kazakhstan where recent well above-average precipitation could diminish the quantity and quality of the wheat harvest. In Southeast Asia, conditions remain favourable for dry-season rice harvesting in the south. Conversely, the passage of Typhoon Yagi in early September is causing concern for wet-season rice in affected areas. In eastern Bangladesh, concern remains in areas that have experienced multiple flooding events this year. In Central America & the Caribbean, conditions are generally favourable for Primera season harvesting and for Segunda/Postrera season planting, except in parts of Guatemala due to erratic rainfall outcomes and high temperatures and in Nicaragua due to early season dryness.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Conditions in the north are mixed due to the combined impacts of above-average and erratic rains and flooding as well as ongoing conflict in Yemen and Sudan. In Ethiopia, agro-climatic conditions are favourable for Meher harvesting despite flooding received in many areas. Across the south, conditions are mostly favourable except in Rwanda where there is early season dryness. OND rainfall is expected to be well below-average in parts of Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
WEST AFRICA: Below-average rainfall has continued along Sudano Guinean and bimodal areas with severe deficits, while above-average rainfall and widespread flooding have continued over the Sahel. However, crop conditions remain generally favourable except in conflict-affected areas and in northern Ghana where there was a prolonged dry spell.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Planting for the 2024/25 wheat season will begin in October. Conditions remain favourable for rice and maize cultivation in Egypt, and rice prospects are also favourable in Iraq and Iran.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Land preparation is underway for the 2024/25 main agricultural season, and planting will begin in October. Winter wheat continues to develop under mostly favourable conditions, except in Zambia where low reservoir levels and extended power cuts are impacting irrigation use. CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Spring wheat harvesting is nearing completion under generally favourable conditions except in northern Kazakhstan where extreme and near-daily precipitation in recent months is expected to reduce the quantity and quality of the wheat harvest despite prior expectations of well above-average outcomes.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: In the south, dry-season rice is mainly in the harvesting stage under favourable conditions. In the north, there is emerging concern for wet-season rice due to the passage of Typhoon Yagi, which compounded existing seasonal rains and triggered river overflows, flooding, and landslides in parts of Viet Nam, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Myanmar. In eastern Bangladesh, concern remains in areas that have experienced multiple flooding events this year.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Harvesting of Primera season cereals is nearing completion under mostly favourable conditions except in parts of Guatemala due to erratic rainfall and high temperatures. Yields are generally average for large farmers and slightly below to well below-average for subsistence farmers. Planting of Segunda/Postrera season cereals is just beginning under mostly favourable conditions, except in Nicaragua where dry conditions are impacting planting activities.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over southeast Mexico, northern Guatemala, northern Honduras, western Nicaragua, central Ecuador, coastal Peru, coastal south Brazil, northern Germany, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, western Belarus, southern Mauritania, southern Mali, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, northern Liberia, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern Niger, Nigeria, northern Cameroon, southern Chad, northern Central African Republic, southern Sudan, South Sudan, northeast and northwest Ethiopia, northeast Somalia, southern Gabon, southern Republic of the Congo, southern India, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, eastern and western Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and central Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over central Canada, the majority of the US, northern and central Mexico, central Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and central Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, northern Argentina, western Uruguay, eastern and western France, Greece, western Türkiye, Azerbaijan, the eastern Russian Federation, southern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, southeast Uganda, northern Tanzania, southern Angola, eastern Namibia, Botswana, southwest Zimbabwe, eastern South Africa, Lesotho, Eswatini, eastern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, southeast Turkmenistan, northern Afghanistan, northwest and northern China, eastern and western Mongolia, northeast Viet Nam, Northeast Thailand, southern Myanmar, east-central and southeast Australia, and central New Zealand.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 October 2024, issued on 27 September 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: La Niña is forecast for October 2024 to February 2025
ENSO-neutral conditions have been present since June 2024. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 71 to 83 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America. Negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions could potentially occur in October-November and enhance La Niña impacts on rainfall in eastern East Africa and Australia.
August 2024 was the hottest August on record and the 15th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures according to NOAA NCEI. 2024 will rank among the warmest years on record. Above-average temperatures are forecast in many regions during late 2024, continuing the elevated likelihood of adverse heat impacts. Excessive heat can be particularly damaging during periods of moisture stress or reproductive stages that determine final yields.
Associated with the forecast La Niña and very warm temperatures, the multi-year pattern of climate extremes may continue. According to NOAA’s August update, there is a 90% chance of an overall highly active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane activity typically peaks from mid-August to October.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, harvesting of spring wheat and sorghum is nearing completion in Yemen while main season cereals continue to develop across Eritrea, Sudan, and South Sudan. Conditions are mixed as persistent heavy rainfall and flooding received for the June to September season continues to impact west and central Yemen, much of Sudan, and north and central South Sudan. Furthermore, recent and ongoing conflict continue to influence production outcomes across Yemen and Sudan. In Ethiopia, agro-climatic conditions are favourable for Meher season harvesting, though socio-economic concerns remain in the prior conflict-affected areas of the north. The June to September rains were above-average in many areas of Ethiopia, and the wet conditions generally benefitted crop development despite flooding received in many areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals finalized in northeastern Kenya under poor conditions due to below-average rainfall performance and late season high temperatures. Harvesting also finalized in unimodal areas of northern Uganda under favourable conditions despite last month’s concerns regarding dry conditions in the northeast. In the unimodal western half of Kenya, Rwanda, and unimodal regions in central and southern Uganda, planting and development of both main and second season cereals continues under mostly favourable conditions except in Rwanda due to early season dryness. With the anticipated shift to a La Niña event, October to December rainfall is expected to be well below-normal for eastern Kenya, Somalia, and southeastern Ethiopia (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, main season millet and sorghum crops are in vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from November, and concern remains as various parts of the country have been impacted by major floods since late July. Recent flooding hindered aid access through the Chad border in Western Darfur and Northern Darfur. Additionally, widespread conflict and displacement continue to limit access to agricultural land and constrain crop production. Farmers are engaging in cultivation where possible, but the cultivated area remains below the pre-conflict levels, particularly in active conflict areas such as Northern Darfur located in the west as well as in the prior breadbasket area located in the east, including Al Jazirah, Sennar, and parts of Blue Nile states. The government is encouraging farmers to maximize cultivation in the Delat Algash area located in the east, which relies on a seasonal flood-based irrigation system and typically plants in September after floodwaters recede. Overall production is expected to be impacted by a combination of the well below-average planted area, heavy rains and flooding throughout the season, and limited access to agricultural inputs and labour which makes it difficult to control the spread of weeds and pests. In South Sudan, first season cereals are in vegetative to reproductive stage, and conditions have worsened in central and northern areas that have been impacted by persistent flooding since May, particularly in Jonglei, Unity, and Warrap states along the Sudd Wetlands. In Bahr El Ghazal region located in the northwest, yields are expected to be below-average, and a millipede infestation is currently impacting crop growth in Northern Bahr El Ghazal. Cumulative June to September seasonal rainfall is generally average in most areas, with pockets of below-average rains received, particularly in the west. Moderate to high rainfall received in August benefited crop growth in some areas but also resulted in severe flooding in low-lying areas with subsequent damage to fields and infrastructure. Additionally, in bimodal Equatoria regions located in the southwest and south-centre of the country, planting of second season maize and sorghum continues under favourable conditions. Above-average rains are forecast to continue through early October with the expected onset of La Niña (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Ethiopia, harvesting of Meher season cereals is just beginning, and agro-climatic conditions are generally favourable for crop development despite ongoing heavy rainfall and flooding received in many areas. Above-average rains are expected to continue for west and central areas into early October, followed by a likely wetter than normal October to December rainfall season in the west and drier than normal season in the southeast. Seasonal rains typically peak in October in the southeast, and a delayed onset could have negative repercussions for seasonal outcomes (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Eritrea, sorghum and wheat crops are in vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from November under favourable conditions. The June to September Kirempti rainy season was early and above-average (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7), with a positive impact on crop development and establishment. In Yemen, harvesting of spring wheat finalized in September under poor conditions, and harvesting of sorghum is nearing completion with ongoing concern due to a combination of persistent heavy rains and ongoing conflict. Abundant rainfall since July has generally benefitted crop development along the west coast and central highlands. However, the rains also brought severe flooding that continued through early August and into September. Additionally, severe macroeconomic challenges persist despite the recent de-escalation of tensions between the two central banks.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, land preparation for Deyr season maize and sorghum is underway, and planting will begin in October. Rains are expected to be below-average for the October to December period, with the anticipated shift to a La Niña event (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 7). The Deyr seasonal rains typically peak in October, and some areas in the north and centre have reported an early rainfall onset. In bimodal and minor producing areas in the eastern half of Kenya, harvesting of Long Rains sorghum crops finalized under poor conditions, primarily due to below-average rainfall performance. Land preparation is underway for Short Rains cereals, and planting will begin in October. However, forecast below-average precipitation amounts from October to December in the east of the country could have a negative impact on yield outcomes (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In unimodal and major producing areas in the western half of the country, Long Rains cereals continue to develop under favourable conditions. This season, delayed rainfall onset by up to one month was followed by average to above-average cumulative amounts for the March to August period despite erratic temporal distribution. Overall, 2024 Long Rains maize production is expected to be 5 to 10 percent below-average due to poor outcomes in the marginal-producing southeastern coastal areas resulting from a combination of low rainfall
amounts, limited seed availability, and localized Fall Armyworm outbreaks. Additionally, planting of first season rice crops, which are mostly irrigated, is underway in the centre and west for harvest in December. In unimodal areas of northern Uganda, harvesting of first season cereals is nearing completion under favourable conditions, as last month’s concerns regarding reduced rains in the northwest have been mitigated. In bimodal areas of the centre and south, planting of second season cereals continues under favourable conditions, and rains are forecast to be above-average through December (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Rwanda, planting of Season A maize is just beginning, and there is initial concern regarding drier than normal conditions for the start of the season as the country has received below-average rains from June through September (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Burundi, land preparation for Season A maize crops is underway, and planting will begin in October. In bimodal areas of the north and northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania, land preparation for both Vuli season maize and winter wheat is underway, and planting will begin in October.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Above-average rains and flood concerns in northern areas forecast to continue while across the Eastern Horn, there are increased chances for below-normal OND rainfall associated with La Niña
During Aug 21st to Sep 20th, above-average rainfall continued in northernmost areas—in western and northern Sudan, Eritrea, and central-northern and northeastern Ethiopia. Below-average rainfall was observed across much of South Sudan, western Ethiopia, and in southeastern Sudan. Farther south, conditions were drier than average—in much of Uganda, western Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and northwestern Tanzania. Coastal areas had mixed rainfall conditions, and southern Somalia received localized above-average rainfall, based on satellite estimates.
An outlook for seasonal totals for June 1st to September 30th (Figure 1-left) shows wetter-than-average conditions prevailed in the north. Wet conditions also occurred in central, southwestern and northeastern Ethiopia, southeastern South Sudan, and northwestern Kenya. In other areas, rainfall totals were close to average.
Flooding concerns will continue in South Sudan and Ethiopia. Satellite data show increases in some inundated areas during September, and more areas will likely be flooded in October. Above-average rainfall is forecast in South Sudan, western and central Ethiopia, and northern Uganda during September 26th to October 10th, based on the unbiased GEFS. OND will likely be wetter than normal in western areas, according to NMME (Figure 1 middle-left), ICPAC, WMO, and C3S forecasts.
During September, temperatures were much higher than normal in some southern areas, including in southeastern Ethiopia and central Somalia, where there is concern about forecast hot and drier-than-average conditions during October to December (OND).
NMME, ICPAC, CHC, WMO, and C3S forecasts all predict increased chances of below-normal OND 2024 rainfall in eastern Kenya, Somalia, and southeastern Ethiopia. A weak or moderate strength La Nina event is anticipated, and observations indicate that an event is developing. NMME models also predict above-normal SST in the western Pacific, which could produce a strong equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. Indian Ocean Dipole conditions have been neutral, but observations trended negative in late September. Some models have been predicting negative IOD conditions during the season. All these factors tend to suppress OND rains in the eastern Horn of Africa.
The latest forecasts from IRI SubX (Figure 1 middle-right and right), ECMWF, and GEFS, all predict drier-than-average conditions in eastern areas during late September and early-mid October. In southeastern Ethiopia and Somalia, seasonal rains typically peak in October and a delayed onset greatly limits cropping opportunities.
Figure 1. June-to-September 2024 rainfall anomaly outlook and 3-month and 2-week probabilistic rainfall forecasts.
Left: Percent-of-average June 1st to September 30th rainfall outlook, based on CHIRPS Final and Prelim (Sep. 1st-20th) data and a CHIRPS-GEFS 10-day forecast from Sep. 21st, 2024. From CHC Early Estimates. Middle-left: Forecast chances of above-normal, normal, and below-normal Oct-Dec rainfall. Probabilities are derived from forecasts from seven North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models (September initial conditions). Colors indicate the forecast probability of each category, based on 124 ensemble members from 7 models and a 1991-2020 baseline. White areas are climatologically dry or there is a high level of disagreement amongst forecasts. Middle-right and right: IRI SubX biweekly probability SubX model rainfall forecasts for Sep. 28th-Oct. 11th and Oct. 5th-18th. Together, these show that the ensemble majority predict several weeks of drier-than-average conditions into mid-October in short rains/Deyr season areas.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, and northern Cameroon. Elsewhere, crops continue to develop in Guinea, central Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, cultivation of second season cereals is underway in Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, and Cameroon. Cumulative June to September rainfall was average to below-average over most southern areas, including western Guinea, the Gulf of Guinea countries, southern Nigeria, and central and southern Cameroon (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). Additionally, from late July to early August, severe deficits impacted parts of northern Ghana, southern Burkina Faso, and northwest and southeastern Nigeria.
Across the Sahel, harvesting of main season cereals is just beginning in Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad while crops continue to develop in Gambia and Mauritania. Land preparation for second season rice is underway in Mauritania and Mali, and planting will begin in October. Over the Sahel, a late start of the season was followed by dry spells in June and July, particularly over Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Nigeria. However, cumulative June to September rainfall was average to above-average over central and eastern areas, including Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and northern Nigeria (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). As of mid-September, the wet conditions resulted in flooded cropland over many parts of the region, including in Mali (544,172 hectares), Burkina Faso (89,277 hectares), Niger (57,731 hectares), Chad (647,890 hectares), Nigeria (727,250 hectares), Cameroon (91,123 hectares), and the Central African Republic (743 hectares). Heavy floods have exacerbated existing challenges across the Sahel, including in the conflict-affected areas along the Lake Chad Basin. Conversely, cumulative June to September rainfall was average to below-average over western areas, including western Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, and eastern Guinea-Bissau. Average to above-average rains are forecast to continue through early October over most parts of the Sahel (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10), and higher than average water runoff will increase the likelihood of flooding and potential localized crop damages. These wet conditions may also result in localized pest outbreaks. Furthermore, a late end to the season is expected over the Sahel as the Intertropical Convergence Zone begins its delayed descent.
Despite mixed rainfall performance throughout West Africa, yield prospects remain favourable in most regions, except in northern Ghana where drought conditions remain a concern (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10) and in regions impacted by ongoing conflict and socio-economic challenges, which includes central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, northern Nigeria, the Far North and Southwest regions of Cameroon, western Chad, and the Central African Republic.
In the northern half of Ghana, near-average cumulative rainfall received from May through early August was followed by erratic temporal rains and a prolonged dry spell between July and August that continued into September (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). These conditions resulted in poor germination and crop wilting and stunting, particularly in the Northern and Upper West regions. Nearly 50 percent of the country’s cropland area has been impacted, and many parts of the middle belt and north have experienced crop failures. However, in areas that have not experienced total crop failure, forecast average to above-average rainfall through October could support partial crop recovery (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). In the southern half of the country, which represents the majority of maize production, adequate weather outcomes are likely to mitigate major production declines at the national scale. However, low rains in July impacted vegetation conditions in early August and likely reduced yields in localized areas of Ashanti, Bono East, and Central regions. Throughout the country, recent above-average temperatures exacerbated the negative impacts of the dry conditions in affected areas. In Cameroon, the Far North region has been experiencing flooding since the start of the rainy season from the second half of July, which intensified in early August. A forecast continuation of rains through October is expected to bring more significant impacts (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). In Niger, heavy rains from the end of July continued into September. Additionally, the collapse of the Alau Dam in northeastern Nigeria compounded flooding impacts.
Regional Outlook: Above-average seasonal rainfall across the Sahel has resulted in severe flooding and displacement while dry conditions have persisted along the southern coast
For the third month in a row, rainfall totals were much higher than average in the Sahel, with 30-day totals exceeding 150% of average across Niger and central Chad, and in eastern Mauritania, eastern Mali, and northern Nigeria (Figure 1-left). Since the onset of the rainy season in June, heavy downpours have ravaged vast regions, claiming more than 1,500 lives, affecting 4 million people, and displacing more than 1.2 million individuals. Communities across Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, and Niger have been impacted. CHIRPS rainfall products estimate seasonal rainfall totals are greater than 125% of average in most northern areas (Figure 1-middle), and are the wettest on record in parts of Mali, Niger, and Chad, according to CHIRPS Final data for June to August and preliminary estimates for September. Numerous international organizations, including the International Organization for Migration (IOM), OCHA, UNHCR, UNICEF, and WFR are scaling up their emergency operations to assist the millions of people impacted by severe flooding across West and Central Africa.
Elsewhere in the region, particularly along the coast, rainfall totals for the last month were well below average. Rainfall deficits exceeded 100 mm in parts of Senegal, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Cameroon, further contributing to below-average rainfall totals for the season thus far (Figure 1-middle). Conditions are particularly concerning in Ghana, which received less than 50% of average rainfall during September, and has now experienced a 2-month long dry spell during what normally would have been the peak of the rainy season. Ghana’s Ministry of Food and Agriculture (MOFA) and the Ministry of Finance announced in late August that the severe drought had led to widespread crop failures across several regions in the middle belt and northern areas, and affected nearly 50% of Ghana’s total cropland. The continuation of the dry spell through September is likely to further impact crop production, and may jeopardize the nation’s food security.
During late September and early October, above-average rainfall is forecast in most central and southern areas (Figure 1-right). Flooding along Niger and Benue Rivers could worsen and complicate humanitarian relief efforts. In the southern areas with prevailing dry conditions, forecast above-average rainfall may provide some reprieve. However, in those areas already reporting crop failure, the rains may be too late for meaningful crop recovery.
Figure 1. Recent and seasonal rainfall anomalies, and a 15-day precipitation forecast.
Left and middle: Both panels are CHC Early Estimates, which compare current precipitation totals to the 1981-2023 CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. These show the percent of average precipitation for August 21st to September 20th, 2024 (left), and for June 1st to September 20th (middle). Both use CHIRPS Prelim for September 1st to 20th. Right: CHIRPS-GEFS forecast for September 25th to October 9th, 2024, shown as the forecast difference from average precipitation in mm.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Middle East & North Africa
In the Middle East and North Africa, land preparation for the 2024/25 wheat season is just beginning, and planting will commence in October. In Egypt, harvesting of summer-planted rice is just beginning while both maize and Nili season (Nile Flood) rice crops continue to develop, and growing conditions remain favourable. In Iraq, conditions remain favourable for ongoing rice cultivation with near-average biomass. In Iran, rice harvesting is underway in the north with average to above-average prospects.
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Southern Africa, the 2023/24 main agricultural season has concluded, and most regions are out of season. Land preparation for the 2024/25 main agricultural season is just beginning in Angola, South Africa, Lesotho, and eSwatini, and planting will begin in October.
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, planting and development of main season cereals continues under generally favourable conditions.
Wheat harvesting is just beginning in Zimbabwe while crops continue to develop in Zambia, South Africa, and Lesotho for harvest from October. In Zimbabwe, there is some concern regarding the potential impact of ongoing power cuts on irrigation activities, though prospects remain generally favourable with an increase in planted area. In Zambia, the combination of reduced reservoir levels and subsequent power cuts up to 21 hours per day are impacting irrigation activities, which could result in yield declines. In South Africa, overall conditions remain favourable as widespread precipitation over the winter rainfall region had a positive impact on production. Above-average yields are expected in Eastern Cape, Free State, and Mpumalanga regions.
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central and South Asia, spring wheat harvesting finalized in Mongolia and is nearing completion in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. Conditions remain generally favourable except in northern Kazakhstan where extreme and near-daily precipitation in recent months is expected to reduce the quantity and quality of the wheat harvest. In Afghanistan, the wheat harvest is mostly complete with generally favourable outcomes. Additionally, winter wheat planting for the 2024/25 season is just beginning in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan under favourable conditions. October to February rainfall is expected to be below-average in most areas, in conjunction with the anticipated La Niña development. Likely dry and hot conditions could hinder winter snowpack development and lead to rapid spring snowmelt (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 13).
In Afghanistan, the wheat harvest is complete in most regions and is nearing completion in higher elevations of the north and central highlands. This season, the first crop was impacted by a combination of flooding, high temperatures, and pest and disease occurrence. However, harvesting prospects are generally favourable as many areas received good precipitation from this year’s El Niño event, and farmers in agricultural areas that had low surface water compensated with groundwater irrigation use. In areas that engage in second season maize and rice crop production, harvesting is just beginning under favourable conditions and will finalize in late October to early November. Land preparation for the 2024/25 winter wheat season is underway, and planting will commence in late October or early November and could extend into December, depending on rainfall and temperature outcomes and irrigation water supply. However, the forecast La Niña event (See Climate Influences Pg. 3) is expected to bring below-average precipitation, and there is some initial concern that the dry conditions may impact both rainfed and irrigated crops. Snow Water Equivalent levels have been below-average since 2020, while the use of groundwater for irrigation has increased in recent years to compensate (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13). In Kazakhstan, last month’s expectations of well above-average wheat production and yield outcomes have been dampened by recent extreme rainfall that is expected to reduce the quantity and quality of the wheat harvest in the north. According to the recent USDA FAS report, up to 15 percent of the wheat crop could be lost, and the production estimate has been reduced from 15.8 million metric tons to 14.2 million metric tons. At the beginning of September, 3 million hectares of wheat had been harvested with an average yield of 1.5 tons per hectare, and about 70 percent of grain crops had yet to be harvested. While farmers typically rely on field drying prior to harvest, near daily rainfall resulted in wet and rotting crops towards the end of the harvesting cycle. In Pakistan, harvesting of main season maize is just beginning while Kharif (summer) season rice crops continue to develop for harvest from October, and overall conditions remain favourable despite flooding impacts this season. Seasonal rainfall has been adequate and well distributed, though heavy rains in July and August resulted in localized crop losses in areas of Balochistan and Sindh provinces located in the south. For maize, above-average yields are expected to offset reduced sowings that occurred due to low farm-gate prices, and near-average production is expected. For rice, above-average sowings are expected to contribute to well above-average production.
Seasonal Forecast Alert: Below-normal precipitation is forecast across the region from late 2024 into early 2025, raising concerns for possible reduced snow water volume and irrigation supply for spring
During late 2024 to early 2025, below-normal precipitation is anticipated in Southern and Central Asia. Recent observations and forecasts indicate that La Niña conditions will likely develop (a 77-83% chance, according to the NOAA CPC Official ENSO forecast). Below-normal October-to-February precipitation is typically associated with weak-to-moderate La Nina conditions (Figure 1-left). A pessimistic outlook is also indicated by WMO (Figure 1-middle), NMME, and C3S multi-model ensemble forecasts, which predict increased chances of below-normal precipitation this fall and winter. The long-range NMME forecast for February to April 2025 precipitation is also pessimistic. Warmer-than-normal temperatures are also forecast. These conditions could hinder the development of winter snowpack and lead to faster melting of snow during the spring.
If forecast conditions materialize, Afghanistan could experience a 6th year in a row of below-average snow water volume. Snow Water Equivalent has been below average since 2020, and three of these years were during La Niñas (Figure 1-right). Winter precipitation is important for snow fed water resources used in irrigated agriculture, such as rivers and streams, though the use of groundwater has increased in recent years. Below-average precipitation could reduce annual groundwater recharge and also increase rates of extraction.
There will be ongoing concern that precipitation amounts, timing, and distribution may be inadequate for rainfed wheat. In cases when weather conditions do not support winter wheat, impacted areas can be used to cultivate spring crops, if spring precipitation is average or above-average. Irrigated crops are more resilient to fluctuating rainfall patterns. In some central-eastern areas, such as the Kabul-Indus basin, extreme rainfall during spring and summer likely increased groundwater levels. Close monitoring is recommended, due to negative impacts that recent La Niñas have had on winter wheat and spring crops in the region.
Figure 1. Historical October-to-February La Niña precipitation, a 5-month probabilistic precipitation forecast, and a retrospective 5-year look at regional average snow water equivalent.
Left: Frequency of above and below-normal October-to-February precipitation during weak-to-moderate strength La Niñas. The analysis summarizes outcomes across 12 La Niña events using 1981-2023 CHIRPS data. Colors indicate the frequency of the dominant category and locations with frequency < 40% (< 5 years of 12) are shown in white. Selected La Niña events had Nov-Dec-Jan (NDJ) ONI index values between -0.5 and -1.4. These are 1983-84, 1984-85, 1995-96, 2000-01, 2005-06, 2008-09, 2011-12, 2016-17, 2020-21, 2021-22, 2022-23. Middle: Probabilistic forecast for October 2024 to February 2025 precipitation, based on September initial conditions. From the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Right: Regional average cumulative Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), shown for October 2023 to September 2024, and the previous four years. Black/grey show the historical mean and the historical lowest and highest values between 2001 and 2023. From NASA, using SWE estimates from the FLDAS Central Asia model.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, dry-season rice is mainly in the harvesting stage under favourable conditions. In Indonesia, the total cultivated area is higher than the previous dry season, and growing conditions are generally favourable due to beneficial rains received in late August to early September. Additionally, planting of wet-season rice is underway in Malaysia under favourable conditions, and land preparation is beginning in Brunei. In northern Southeast Asia, wet-season rice is in the growing to harvesting stage under mixed conditions. In early September, Typhoon Yagi brought torrential rains across parts of Viet Nam, Laos, Thailand, Cambodia, and Myanmar, compounding existing seasonal rains and triggering river overflows, flooding, and landslides. The Asia-Pacific region is facing a rise in the number of severe storms and flooding and remains on high alert for tropical storm formation in the coming months. While the yield of earlier harvested rice is generally favourable, there is concern in areas impacted by the storm. However, final harvesting outcomes are not expected to be impacted significantly at the national scales. Furthermore, there is concern in the Philippines where insufficient rainfall earlier in the season, followed by persistent storms and rainfall, resulted in lodging and pest damage. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conditions are mostly favourable except in parts of eastern Bangladesh that have experienced multiple flooding events this year. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conditions in North Pyongan have been upgraded to favourable as flooding impacts are expected to remain localized.
In Indonesia, planting of dry-season rice is nearing completion with a total planted area of 4.7 million hectares, which is 8 percent higher than the last dry season. Growing conditions are generally favourable with good rains received in late August to early September, particularly in the south. Rainfall intensity increased in some areas in early September, but no significant damage was reported. Additionally, September is the third month of dry-season rice harvesting. Total harvested area has reached 2.7 million hectares, which is 6.2 percent higher than last year, and yield is expected to be favourable. In Malaysia, harvesting of dry-season rice is underway, and yield is favourable due to adequate sunlight levels and water supply. Additionally, planting of wet-season rice continued in September and reached 9 percent of the cultivation plan, which will mostly be carried out in the central and some southern regions. Conditions are generally favourable, and farmers in some granary areas are continuing to prepare land and await for optimal planting conditions. In Brunei, about 60 percent of the dry-season rice area has been harvested, and production outcomes have improved slightly due to the use of a new hybrid variety and despite some pest damage. Precipitation remains higher than normal while surface temperatures are lowering. Additionally, land preparation for wet-season rice is underway.
In the Philippines, wet-season rice planted from April to May is now fully harvested, and production is lower compared to the same period last year due to insufficient rainfall received. Wet-season rice planted in July to August is now in the tillering to panicle forming stage, and concern remains due to the combined impacts of a low-pressure area, tropical cyclone, and southwest monsoon rains which continue to impact the country, particularly in Luzon and Visayas provinces located in the north and centre. Yields may be impacted by subsequent crop lodging and pest damage during the growing stage. In Thailand, wet-season rice is in the young panicle forming stage, and there is emerging concern due to the impacts of monsoon and tropical disturbances from July to August that caused widespread flooding, extending into Northern, Northeastern, and Central regions. About 120 thousand hectares, representing 1.2 percent of the planted area, has been affected. However, growing conditions are generally favourable in areas not impacted by the flooding, and overall production and yield outcomes are expected to increase. In northern Viet Nam, wet-season rice is in the panicle forming to grain filling stages with emerging concern due to recent storm impacts. On September 7, Typhoon Yagi made landfall in the north and was the most powerful storm to hit the China Sea in 30 years. The storm resulted in flash floods and landslides, and Quang Ninh and Hai Phong provinces were the most affected. An estimated 200 thousand hectares have been affected, and yield is expected to be lower than the last season. In the south, wet-season (summer-autumn) rice is in the harvesting stage with a yield of 5.94 tons per hectare, which is the same as last year. The other wet-season (autumn-winter and seasonal) rice is in the growing stages under favourable conditions. In lowland areas of Laos, wet-season rice is in the young panicle forming to grain filling stages with emerging concern. While good weather conditions and irrigation water supply have benefitted paddy fields, heavy rainfall from the second half of August is resulting in flooding and landslides across some areas near the Mekong River. Additionally, Typhoon Yagi triggered heavy rains and landslides in north and central provinces in early September. In upland areas, growing conditions are generally favourable. While some localized northern areas are experiencing pest outbreaks, the damage is not significant. In Myanmar, planting of wet-season rice is nearing completion with 5.5 million hectares planted, accounting for 91.3 percent of the national plan. Planting progress is similar to last year, and crops are now in the panicle forming to maturity stage under mostly favourable conditions as monsoon rain benefitted planting work. However, there is concern in the Delta region where the passage of Typhoon Yagi resulted in the most severe flooding in recent history, with many areas experiencing flooding for the first time in decades. Over 480 thousand hectares of planted crops have been affected, and 200 thousand hectares have been damaged. Replanting operations have occurred for about half of the damaged fields. In Cambodia, planting of wet-season rice is now complete, with 2.8 million hectares planted, accounting for 107 percent of the national plan. However, there is emerging concern as recent severe rains caused flooding in some provinces and subsequent damage to rice fields. The damaged fields were also previously affected by drought which affected 0.12 percent of the total planted area. Additionally, 34 percent of earlier planted rice has been harvested, and production is expected to be lower than last year due to the impacts of prior drought and ongoing flooding.
In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Yala season rice and second season maize is nearing completion, and vegetation conditions are near-average. While cumulative rains have been below-average since the start of the season, soil moisture conditions are generally adequate for crop development. As such, conditions in the northeast have been upgraded to favourable. Land preparation is underway for Maha season maize and rice, and planting will begin in October. In Nepal, maize harvesting finalized in September with near-average yields expected. Main season rice crops are in vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from November, and growing conditions remain favourable. However, heavy rain since late September has caused flooding in landslides in many areas, particularly in the centre and west. In Bangladesh, planting of Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice production) and main season sorghum continues for harvest from November with ongoing concern in the east due to overly wet conditions. This year, the country has faced multiple flooding events, including the passage of Cyclone Remal in May, flooding across the Sylhet and Jamuna basins in June and July, and extreme rainfall and severe flooding across east and southeastern areas in late August. Additionally, torrential rains from Typhoon Yagi in early September caused flooding and landslides across Cox’s Bazaar located in the southeast. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, maize harvesting finalized in September while rice harvesting is now underway, and conditions are favourable with average to above-average biomass. In North Pyongan, flooding at the end of July did not significantly reduce vegetation conditions at the province level, and impacts are expected to remain localized.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing Primera season maize conditions as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, harvesting of Primera season cereals is nearing completion in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. While September is typically the last month of harvesting, this season’s progress is slightly behind schedule as precipitation deficits and prolonged high temperatures resulted in planting delays for the Primera season over many areas, particularly in the Dry Corridor. Conditions remain mostly favourable except in central and southeastern Guatemala where there is concern due to erratic rainfall throughout the season as well as high temperatures. Throughout Central America, large producers reported near-average yields at the end of the season as they had the resources to deal with erratic rains and an increase in pest and disease occurrence. Conversely, subsistence farmers reported slightly below-average to well below-average yields, particularly in Guatemala and in areas without irrigation. Furthermore, planting of Segunda/Postrera season cereals is just beginning under mostly favourable conditions, except for maize crops in Nicaragua where antecedent and continuing dry conditions are impacting sowing activities. Very wet conditions are forecast to continue into early October in Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and western Nicaragua. The rains could negatively impact remaining Primera harvesting activities but could benefit soil moisture conditions for the start of the Segunda/Postrera season.
In El Salvador, despite rainfall shortages during the start of the Primera planting period in May, vegetation conditions are mostly favourable except in localized areas, including in San Vicente department located in the centre where vegetation conditions are below-average for more than 25 percent of the cropland area. For the Segunda/Postrera season, adequate soil moisture is benefitting sowing activities. In Guatemala, Primera season harvesting is slightly delayed due to the late and staggered planting caused by dry and hot conditions at the beginning of the season. Conditions are mixed for Primera season crops due to erratic rainfall outcomes and high temperatures, particularly in the centre and southeast. Mixed precipitation outcomes in August were followed by overly wet conditions and extreme weather events that resulted in flooding, landslides, and a crop disease known as Bemisia tabaci Genn, which may reduce harvesting outcomes in affected areas. In the major producing Jutiapa department located in the southeast and in some central areas, vegetation conditions are poor. In Huehuuetenango department located in the central-west, rainfall patterns were mixed as crops entered the flowering stage. Overall, large producers are reporting average to slightly below-average yields for the Primera season, while subsistence farmers reported 60 to 100 percent losses, mostly due to the rainfall deficit. For the Segunda/Postrera season, overall conditions are favourable for the start of the season, though sowing activities are delayed by 3 to 5 weeks as a result of irregular rainfall distribution during July and August. In Huehuuetenango, the mixed rainfall patterns impacted some bean crops during the Postrera planting stage. In Honduras, Primera season conditions are mostly favourable due to generally normal rainfall received over the last three months in most areas. However, for maize crops, dry and hot conditions at the start of the growing stage impacted the key producing area known as Olancho, and for bean crops, a pest known as Thrip was reported in main producing regions. These conditions could slightly reduce final production amounts. Additionally, harvesting of main season rice crops continues under favourable conditions and will finalize in November. In Nicaragua, Primera season conditions are mostly favourable. For the Segunda/Postrera season, extensive dry conditions during the Primera season in combination with irregular rainfall distribution in July and August resulted in a sowing delay of three to five weeks. The antecedent dry conditions as well as a continuation of below-average precipitation into September are impacting planting activities, particularly in Chontales and Río San Juan departments located in the south. The government is providing seeds to promote cultivation. In Haiti, harvesting of main season rice is nearing completion while Été season maize and beans are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and crop development is normal. While rainfall in August was below-average over eastern areas, soil moisture levels remain favourable and are conducive to ongoing sowing activities. In Cuba, harvesting of main season maize and rice continues under favourable conditions and will finalize in November.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published October 3rd, 2024.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.