In Southern Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is just beginning in Angola and Zambia while crops continue to develop in Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Malawi, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and eSwatini for harvest from March. Crop conditions are mixed as El Niño-induced dry and hot weather continues to impact much of the region with expanding areas of concern. Conditions have been downgraded to watch in eastern Angola, eastern Zambia, southeastern Zimbabwe, central Malawi, western Mozambique, central-northern South Africa, and Lesotho, and conditions have been downgraded to poor in most of Zimbabwe, central and western Zambia, southern Malawi, and central Mozambique. Following a prolonged dry spell in November, average to above-average rainfall from mid-December through early to mid-January prompted enhanced agricultural activities, including planting and replanting efforts, application of agricultural inputs, and weeding across north and central areas of the region. Conversely, a record dry spell of close to 40 days impacted several areas of the region during the middle of the cropping season, culminating in the lowest rainfall received for the late-January to February timeframe in the last 40 years and resulting in permanent crop wilting in parts of Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique. The extreme drought situation is driven by both a considerable rainfall deficit as well as an increase in water demand, likely influenced by high temperatures, which is imposing severe water stress on crops. Forecast rainfall through March is expected to be below-average in most central and southern areas of the region with a likely severe negative impact to the remainder of the cropping season and little chance of recovery (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9). In addition to near-term concerns for reduced crop production, there is also a concern for the potential of long-lasting impacts on seed availability in the region if widespread failure occurs.

In Angola, overall conditions are mixed with generally conducive weather outcomes in the west while the south and east have experienced below-average seasonal rainfall and deteriorating soil moisture, along with periods of localized flooding. In the southeast, erratic rainfall is affecting crop development in parts of Cuando Cubango and Cunene where localized flooding occurred in river valley areas. Crops are stunted in parts of eastern Huila, western Cuando Cubango, and southwestern Cunene, and final outcomes are uncertain. In Zambia, the government declared a natural disaster on February 29th regarding the El Niño induced drought crisis and expected impacts to agriculture following five consecutive weeks without rain during the critical development period (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9). According to official estimates, the country has lost 1 million hectares out of 2.2 million hectares planted. In Zimbabwe, planting was completed later than normal in January due to a delayed rainfall onset, particularly in the west. Additionally, following beneficial rains from mid-December through January, a severe dry spell from the end of January through February impacted most regions, including the main producing northern areas, and resulted in crop wilting and severe water stress across much of the country. February and March are typically critical months for crop development, and yield potential has deteriorated across many areas due to a combination of the late planting activities, the severe dry spell, and above-average temperatures. Recovery is unlikely at this point as forecasts indicate below-average

rains are expected to continue through March (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9). Conversely, there are some areas where crop recovery is still possible, including in irrigated areas as well as in the Eastern Highlands where conditions are wetter. In central and southern Malawi, the country is experiencing an extended dry spell of over a month between January and February, resulting in severe moisture stress for crops in key developmental stages and likely crop losses before harvest. Crops in the south are unlikely to recover, and total production is expected to be below-average. In Mozambique, concern remains across much of the country due to a delayed rainfall onset followed by erratic rainfall distribution and a dry spell in February, particularly in the major producing centre where planting delays by up to three weeks occurred in Sofala and Zambezia provinces and where yields are expected to be below-average. Despite precipitation improvements in December and January, rainfall deficits are present in some areas, particularly in Zambezia, and high temperatures are further degrading conditions and leading to crop wilting. In the moderate producing north, conditions are mixed with concern in Cabo Delgado province where continued insecurity and localized flooding events have adversely impacted land and input access. In the minor producing south, below-average rainfall and a severe dry spell in February have impacted crop development. El Niño induced dry conditions are expected to continue through March in central and southern parts of the country, with likely negative impacts to cropping outcomes (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9). In South Africa, conditions have been downgraded to watch in the main maize producing provinces of Free State, Mpumalanga, North West, and Eastern Cape as dry and hot weather outcomes since mid-January have negatively impacted maize crops, which are currently in the sensitive pollination and kernel development stages. Rainfall outcomes through the end of February will be critically important to prevent further damage; however, forecasts indicate hot and dry conditions are likely to continue through early March (See Regional Outlook Pg. 9). Elsewhere, conditions remain generally favourable as wet conditions during December and early January have resulted in near-average cumulative rainfall amounts. In the Northern Cape where crops are irrigated, water resources are sufficient due to the wet conditions received over the interior. In Lesotho, conditions have been downgraded to watch as a result of mixed rainfall performance. Dry conditions in November 2023 were followed by heavy rainfall and strong winds from late December through early January that resulted in crop damage. Mid-February marked a return to below-average rainfall performance which is expected to continue into March. Cumulative rainfall amounts remain generally average despite low precipitation and high temperatures recorded in February, but there is concern regarding whether crops will reach maturity before the onset of frost. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of main season cereals is nearing completion in the east while planting and development of second season maize is underway in the centre, southeast, and north, and conditions remain generally favourable despite recent erratic rainfall received in the north. In the east, protracted conflict continues to disrupt household access to cultivated areas for harvesting activities.