Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 125: Published March 6th, 2025
Conditions as of February 28th
To access all reports, please visit the Archive.
Please visit the Referencing Guidelines page for information on how to cite the Crop Monitor reports and products.
Overview
At the end of February, conditions are mixed for wheat and soybeans, while favourable for maize and rice. For wheat, winter wheat is mostly dormant in the northern hemisphere under mixed conditions in the Canadian Prairies, Europe, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and the northern US. For maize, conditions are generally favourable in the southern hemisphere, except in parts of Argentina and South Africa. Rice conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some potential damage from heavy rains in the Philippines. For soybeans, conditions are mixed in the southern hemisphere due to hot and dry conditions in Argentina and southern Brazil.
Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data from all Crop Monitors. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, conditions remain mixed in Europe, the Russian Federation, Ukraine, and parts of North America.
Maize – In the southern hemisphere, recent rains have improved conditions in parts of Argentina, however, conditions have worsened in South Africa.
Rice – Conditions are generally favourable; however, heavy rains and flooding have damaged some dry-season rice in the Philippines.
Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, conditions are mixed in Argentina, southern Brazil, and South Africa due to recent hot and dry weather.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – La Niña conditions are currently present. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during March-May 2025 (66 percent chance). Neutral ENSO conditions are most likely through November 2025, according to the CPC/IRI.
Argentina – Below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures are likely across the northern and eastern agricultural areas next week. The following week is likely to have normal conditions.
Brazil – During March and April, precipitation is leaning towards below-average, and temperatures are likely to be above-average over Central-West, Northeast, South, and Southeast regions.
Ukraine – Current low soil moisture conditions are unlikely to resolve with forecasted below-average precipitation during spring 2025 or the likely hot and dry weather during Summer 2025, particularly in the southern and eastern regions.
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Wheat: In the EU, conditions are generally favourable for winter wheat across Europe, however, prolonged dry weather has eroded potential yields in Bulgaria and Romania. In Türkiye, conditions remain generally favourable despite continuing dry weather in the southeast. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat is in dormancy, however, below-average precipitation since the beginning of the season remains a concern for spring crop growth. In Ukraine, prolonged dryness and little to no snow cover are creating poor soil moisture conditions for when winter wheat breaks dormancy in the spring. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat is dormant under favourable conditions. In China, winter wheat is breaking dormancy under favourable conditions. In India, conditions are favourable, with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In the US, winter wheat remains mostly dormant under generally favourable conditions. In Canada, winter wheat conditions remain stable, with concerns in the Prairies due to a reduced snowpack and low temperatures.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Maize: In Brazil, harvest for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is continuing under favourable conditions with a decrease in the total sown area compared to last year. The sowing of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is picking up pace with an increase in the total sown area expected compared to last year. In Argentina, harvest is beginning for the early-planted crop (usually larger season) with highly variable yields due to water deficits and excessive heat. Recent rains in the main producing areas of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, and Santa Fe during February have improved expectations for the late-planted crop (usually smaller season), however, final yields are dependent on upcoming weather. In South Africa, a late start to the rainy season and a dry period from mid-January to early February are negatively affecting yields in the main production region. In India, conditions are favourable for the Rabi crop (smaller season). In Mexico, the sowing of the Autumn-winter season (smaller season) is wrapping up with a reduction in the total sown area compared to normal due to a lack of irrigation water.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Rice: In India, conditions are favourable for the Rabi and Summer crops as transplanting progresses. In Bangladesh, the Boro crop (largest season) is developing under favourable conditions. In Indonesia, ample rainfall from late January to mid-February continues to support the sowing of wet-season rice, contributing to a large increase in the total sown area compared to last season. Harvesting of earlier sown crops continues with good yields. In Viet Nam, sowing of dry-season rice (winter-spring rice) begins in the north and continues in the south. Some provinces in the Mekong River Delta have begun harvesting with good yields. In Thailand, dry-season rice is in the young panicle-forming stage and grain-filling stage under favourable conditions. In the Philippines, heavy rains in the southern parts of Luzon and central Mindanao in January caused some flooding and landslide damage to dry-season rice crops. In Brazil, harvesting is beginning under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Soybeans: In Brazil, harvest is continuing under generally favourable conditions, albeit with a delay compared to last season. A lack of rainfall in parts of the south region is a potential concern for yields. An increase in total sown area is estimated compared to last year. In Argentina, recent rainfall has improved conditions across most of the country for both the early-planting (typically larger season) and late-planted (typically smaller season) crops, however, dryness remains an issue in the northern and southern provinces. In South Africa, conditions are mixed after a late start to the rainy season and a dry period from mid-January to early February. Rainfall in March will be critical to sustaining yields.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.
Climate Influences: La Niña Advisory
La Niña conditions are currently present. A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during March-May 2025 (66 percent chance). Neutral ENSO conditions are most likely through November 2025, according to the CPC/IRI. Very warm western Pacific Ocean conditions are forecast to continue, which would strengthen temperature gradients and potentially enhance or prolong La Niña’s impacts.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Global temperatures for January 2025 were the warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. Forecast above-average temperatures during late February to mid-March raise the risk of heat stress during maize reproductive development in southern Brazil and northern Argentina and may exacerbate impacts of forecast below-average rainfall during early March. In East Africa, forecast hotter and drier-than-average conditions could challenge the establishment of rainfed crops.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over eastern Canada, western and the Great Lakes regions in the US, central Columbia, southern and eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, northern Brazil, western Ecuador, southern Peru, western Bolivia, northwest Argentina, coastal Norway, northern Sweden, Finland, the northern Russian Federation, northern Algeria, central Côte d'Ivoire, central Ghana, northern and central Tanzania, Madagascar, United Arab Emirates, central east Iran, Afghanistan, eastern India, Bangladesh, southwest China, southern Viet Nam, the Philippines, Malaysia, eastern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and northern Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the Great Plains in the US, Mexico, western Cuba, eastern and central Brazil, southern Chile, eastern Poland, eastern Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, eastern Serbia, western and southeast Belarus, Ukraine, the central and southern Russian Federation, northern Georgia, coastal Sierra Leone, northern Angola, southern Malawi, central Botswana, central and southeast South Africa, western Kazakhstan, eastern Kyrgyzstan, central and northern India, Nepal, northwest and eastern China, Democratic Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea, northwest Japan, northeast Indonesia, northern Papua New Guinea, western Australia, and northern New Zealand.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 – 21 March 2025, issued on 28 February 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Argentina Outlook
The 5 – 11 March 2025 precipitation forecast (left) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation across the northern and eastern agricultural areas, particularly in Formosa, Chaco, Corrientes, Misiones, Santiago del Estero, eastern Entre Rios, and eastern Buenos Aires. Conversely, above-average precipitation is likely in central and southern Cordoba, eastern La Pampa, eastern San Luis, and western Buenos Aires. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in the northeast, particularly in Chaco, Corrientes, Misiones, northern Santiago del Estero, eastern Entre Rios, northern Santa Fe, and eastern Buenos Aires, while below-average temperatures are likely in San Luis, La Pampa, and western Buenos Aires. The 12 – 18 March 2025 precipitation forecast (right) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation across the main agricultural areas, most likely in Santa Fe and Entre Rios. During the same time, temperatures are most likely to be near-average across the main agricultural areas but above-average in the north.
Left: 5 – 11 March 2025 precipitation anomaly forecast. Right: 12 – 18 March 2025 precipitation anomaly forecast. Images from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina.
Brazil Outlook
The March 2025 outlook indicates a leaning toward below-average precipitation over Central-West, Northeast, South, and Southeast regions. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the Central-West, Northeast, South, and Southeast regions. The April 2025 outlook indicates a leaning toward below-average precipitation over Central-West, Northeast, South, and Southeast regions. During the same time, temperatures are likely to continue to be above-average across the South, Southeast, Northeast, and Central-West regions, particularly in Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, and Paraná.
Upper Left: March 2025 precipitation anomaly forecast. Upper Right: March 2025 temperature anomaly forecast. Lower Left: April 2025 precipitation anomaly forecast. Lower Right: April 2025 temperature anomaly forecast. Maps from the National Institute of Meteorology
Ukraine Outlook
Current soil moisture conditions (upper left and upper right) are below-average across much of the country, particularly over the eastern and northern regions. Forecasted Spring precipitation from March to May 2025 shows a leaning toward below-average precipitation, which will add to the concerns for crop growth. During the Summer, the June to August precipitation and temperature long-range forecasts (lower left and lower right) show likely below-average precipitation and above average temperatures. This will bring an elevated risk of dry spells and heat waves in Ukraine, especially in the already dry southern and central areas.
Upper left: SMAP root zone (0-100 cm) soil moisture anomaly as of February 28th. Upper Right: CPC soil moisture anomaly. Maps from USDA Crop Explorer Lower left: WMO June to August precipitation forecast. Lower right: WMO June to August temperature forecast. Maps from WMO