Crop Monitor for AMIS

Report Information

No. 123: Published December 5th, 2024

Conditions as of November 28th

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Overview

At the end of November, conditions are mixed for wheat while favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, harvesting is continuing in the southern hemisphere under mixed conditions as winter wheat in the northern hemisphere goes into winter dormancy. For maize, harvest is wrapping up in the northern hemisphere under mixed conditions as sowing gathers pace in the southern hemisphere. Rice conditions are generally favourable, however, several typhoons impacted wet-season rice in the Philippines. Soybean harvesting is wrapping up in the northern hemisphere as sowing progresses pace in the southern hemisphere.

Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data from all Crop Monitors. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

Crop Conditions at a Glance

Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat for harvest in 2025 is under mixed conditions in Europe, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. In the southern hemisphere, harvest is continuing under mixed conditions in Argentina and Australia.

Maize – In the northern hemisphere, harvesting is wrapping up under mixed conditions. In the southern hemisphere, sowing is gathering pace in Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa.

Rice – Conditions are generally favourable, however, wet-season rice in the Philippines remains under mixed conditions due to the impact of several typhoons.

Soybeans – In the northern hemisphere, harvest is wrapping up as sowing is progressing in the southern hemisphere.

Forecasts at a Glance

Climate Influences – La Niña conditions will likely develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 72 percent chance of La Niña during December 2024 to February 2025. If La Niña does develop, it will likely be a weak and short-lived event, likely returning to ENSO-neutral conditions by March 2025.

Argentina – The December-January-February (DJF) 2024/2025 outlook indicates likely average precipitation over the main agricultural areas while temperatures are likely to be above-average.

Brazil – The December-January-February (DJF) 2024/2025 outlook indicates likely above-average precipitation over most of the country except in the south where below-average precipitation is likely.

South Africa – The December-January-February (DJF) 2024/2025 outlook indicates likely above-average precipitation for parts of the north-eastern central and coastal areas, while below-average for the rest of the country.

Wheat Conditions

Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. 

Wheat: In the EU, above-average temperatures and drier weather have helped to accelerate sowing and early development, however, germination and initial crop development have been hindered in Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy, and Romania. In the United Kingdom, conditions remain mixed due to earlier overly wet weather. In Türkiye, sowing is entering the prime window. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat sowing is wrapping up under mixed conditions with an expected decrease in total sown area compared to last year. In Ukraine, recent precipitation has improved soil moisture levels, however, a large portion of the crop remains less developed than average. In China, winter wheat is under favourable conditions. In India, sowing is beginning in the northern and central states. In the US, winter wheat sowing is wrapping up under generally favourable conditions. In Canada, winter wheat is under favourable conditions. In Australia, harvest is well underway; yields are expected to be exceptionally high across New South Wales and Queensland; however, a lack of rainfall and frost during September and October in the southeast has significantly reduced yields. In Argentina, harvest is progressing under mixed conditions, with lower yields in the north while near average yields in the south and east.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Maize Conditions

Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.

Maize: In the US, conditions are mostly exceptional except in the minor producing regions of the East Coast as harvesting wraps up. In Canada, the season is ending with above-average yields in Manitoba and Ontario. In Ukraine, harvest is wrapping up under mixed conditions due to in-season drought. In the Russian Federation, harvest is ending with below-average yields due to hot and dry weather during the summer. In India, the Kharif crop (larger season) harvest is wrapping up as the sowing of the Rabi crop (smaller season) begins. In Mexico, harvest is beginning for the spring-summer crop (larger season) under mixed conditions due to dry weather earlier in the season. Sowing has begun for the Autumn-winter season (smaller season). In Brazil, rainfall continues to support the sowing and crop development of the spring-planted crop (smaller season). In Argentina, sowing and early development of the early-planted crop (usually larger season) are continuing under favourable conditions owing to good water availability. In South Africa, average to above-average November rainfall across most of the main growing regions has increased sowing activities.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Rice Conditions

Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.

Rice: In China, harvesting is wrapping up for the late double-crop. In India, harvest of the Kharif crop (larger season) is wrapping up in the northern and central states, while progressing in the southern and eastern states. In Bangladesh, the Aman crop (mid-sized season) harvest has begun with some losses expected in the eastern and southern districts due to heavy rains and flooding. Sowing is beginning for the Boro crop (largest season). In Indonesia, harvesting of dry-season rice is ongoing while the sowing of wet-season rice continues at a faster pace than last year. In Viet Nam, wet-season rice (summer-autumn and seasonal) is harvesting in the north under favourable conditions. In the south, the harvest of the autumn-winter and seasonal rice crops (wet-season) as the sowing begins for winter-spring season rice (dry-season). In Thailand, wet-season rice is harvesting under favourable conditions. In the Philippines, harvesting of wet-season rice continues under mixed conditions, primarily in the north due to lodging and flooding during several typhoon landfalls. In Brazil, sowing is progressing with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Soybean Conditions

Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.

Soybeans: In Canada, harvest is wrapping up with above-average yields in the major producing provinces of Ontario and Manitoba. In India, conditions are favourable as harvest wraps up. In Brazil, sowing and early crop development are progressing under favourable conditions, supported by good rainfall and soil moisture levels. An increase in total sown area is estimated compared to last year. In Argentina, sowing of the early-planting crop (typically larger season) is about halfway complete with good soil moisture conditions supporting early crop development.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.

Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.

Climate Influences: La Niña Watch

La Niña conditions will likely develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 72 percent chance of La Niña during December 2024 to February 2025. If La Niña does develop, it will likely be a weak (0.5-1.0C) and short-lived event, likely returning to ENSO-neutral conditions by March 2025. However, forecast very warm western Pacific Ocean conditions would strengthen temperature gradients, which could potentially enhance or prolong La Niña’s impacts.

La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.

Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index values were negative during October and November, and have since returned to a neutral state. The negative IOD conditions led to a very poor rainfall season in Somalia, with implications for crop failure and degraded pasture conditions.

Global temperatures for January to October 2024 were the warmest on record with 2024 almost certainly becoming the warmest year on record.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC

Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation

The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over northwest Canada, southeast Mexico, Belize, northern Guatemala, Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southern Peru, southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, northeast and southcentral Argentina, southern France, northern Spain, central Italy, western Angola, central Tanzania, west coast of Madagascar, eastern China, southern Viet Nam, southern Thailand, western Malaysia, southern and eastern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and northern and eastern Australia.

There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over eastern and central Canada, the western and central US, western Mexico, Haiti, northern and central Columbia, western Venezuela, Ecuador, northwest Peru, Suriname, northern French Guiana, northern to southeast Brazil, southwest Bolivia, northern and southern Chile, eastern Argentina, western Uruguay, Portugal, western Spain, central Norway, western Sweden, eastern Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, eastern Ukraine, the eastern and western Russia Federation, western Morocco, southern Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, southern Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, northern Gabon, Republic of the Congo, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, southern South Sudan, Uganda, southern and central Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, southeast Angola, southern Zambia, northeastern Namibia, northern Botswana, northern Zimbabwe, western Mozambique, central South Africa, eastern Madagascar, central Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Iran, eastern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, Mongolia, northwest and northeast China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, southern Japan, western Indonesia, and southwest Australia.

Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 - 20 December 2024, issued on 29 November 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom

Argentina Outlook

The December-January-February 2024/2025 precipitation forecast (left) indicates a likelihood of average precipitation across the main agricultural areas, while above-average perception over the Andes and below-average precipitation over Patagonia. During the same time, the temperature forecast (right) indicates likely above-average temperatures across most of the country.

Left: December-January-February 2024/25 (DJF) precipitation probability forecast. Lower Right: December-January-February 2024/25 (DJF) temperature probability forecast.  Images from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina.

Brazil Outlook

The December-January-February 2024/2025 outlook indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over parts of Acre, Amapá, eastern and northern Amazonas, Ceará, Goias, Mato Grosso, western Pará, western Paraná, Roraima, São Paulo, and northern and central Tocantins, while below-average over coastal Maranhão, coastal Pará, Rio Grande do Sul, and Santa Catarina. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country except western Paraná and southern Rio Grande do Sul. Based on the SPI November Drought Severity from CHIRPS, the above-average forecasted precipitation will exacerbate already wet conditions in Mato Grosso, while potentially alleviating dry conditions in the north. However, the below-average precipitation in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina will potentially exacerbate already dry conditions in those states.

Upper Left: December-January-February 2024/25 (DJF) seasonal precipitation anomaly forecast. Upper Right: December-January-February 2024/25 (DJF) seasonal temperature anomaly forecast. Bottom: SPI 1-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS) (1 November - 30 November 2024). Maps from the National Institute of Meteorology and the USDA Crop Explorer

South Africa Outlook

The December-January-February (DJF) 2024/2025 outlook indicates probable above-average precipitation over western Eastern Cape, eastern Free State, Gauteng, eastern KwaZulu-Natal, western Mpumalanga, and southern Western Cape, while below-average precipitation over most of the rest of the county. During this time, minimum temperatures will likely be above-average across most of the county. Additionally, maximum temperatures will likely be above-average across most of the country except for the coastal areas.

Top: December-January-February 2024/25 (DJF) seasonal precipitation prediction. Lower Left: December-January-February 2024/25 (DJF) seasonal minimum temperature prediction. Lower Right: December-January-February 2024/25 (DJF) seasonal maximum temperature prediction. Maps from The South African Weather Service