Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 122: Published November 7th, 2024
Conditions as of October 28th
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Overview
At the end of November, conditions are mixed for wheat while favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans. For wheat, harvesting is beginning in the southern hemisphere as sowing continues in the northern hemisphere under mixed conditions. For maize, harvest is progressing in the northern hemisphere as sowing begins in the southern hemisphere. Rice conditions are generally favourable, however, typhoons and enhanced monsoon rains have negatively impacted the Philippines and northern Viet Nam. Soybeans are harvesting in the northern hemisphere as sowing picks up pace in Brazil.
Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data from all Crop Monitors. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat for harvest in 2025 is sowing under mixed conditions. In the southern hemisphere, harvest is beginning.
Maize – In the northern hemisphere, crop conditions are exceptional in North America and poor in Southeastern Europe as harvest progresses. In the southern hemisphere, sowing is gathering pace in Brazil, while beginning in Argentina and South Africa.
Rice – Conditions are generally favourable, however, typhoons and enhanced monsoon rains have negatively impacted the Philippines and northern Viet Nam.
Soybeans – In the northern hemisphere, crop conditions are exceptional in the US, while poor in the Russian Federation and Ukraine as harvest progresses. In the southern hemisphere, sowing is picking up pace in Brazil.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 71 to 75 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025. If La Niña does develop, it will likely be a weak and short-lived event, likely returning to ENSO-neutral conditions by March 2025.
Argentina – For the two weeks, conditions will likely be slightly drier-than-average. In the long-term (November-January), conditions are likely to be drier-than-average across the core agricultural areas.
Brazil – The November outlook a leaning toward a mix of above and below-average precipitation across the country while temperatures are likely to be above-average.
United States – During November, above-average precipitation is likely from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes, while at the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in the eastern half of the US.
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Wheat: In the EU, winter wheat sowing is starting slowly due to excessive rainfall in western and southern Europe. In the United Kingdom, sowing is delayed due to excessive rainfall during September and the late harvest of summer crops. In Türkiye, sowing is beginning under favourable conditions. In the Russian Federation, despite recent rainfall, winter wheat sowing continues under mostly dry conditions. In Ukraine, drought has persisted in many eastern areas, resulting in winter wheat crops that are 2-3 weeks behind in phenological development going into winter dormancy. In China, the sowing of winter wheat is wrapping up with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year. In the US, winter wheat sowing and emergence are progressing albeit with several areas of dryness across the Great Plains. In Canada, sowing of winter wheat begins under favourable conditions. In Australia, conditions are exceptional in New South Wales and Queensland, however, dry conditions and severe frosts have negatively impacted yields in South Australia and Victoria. In Argentina, recent rains have improved conditions in the central agricultural areas and Buenos Aires, however, in the north and centre-west regions, prolonged drought has likely reduced yields.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Maize: In the US, harvest is progressing faster than normal under mostly exceptional conditions except in the minor producing regions of the East Coast. In Canada, yields are above-average in Manitoba and Ontario as harvest wraps up. In the EU, harvest is concluding with poor results in south-eastern countries, due to in-season hot and dry weather. In Ukraine, crop conditions are poor in southern, central, and eastern regions as harvest continues. In the Russian Federation, harvest is continuing with below-average yields expected due to hot and dry weather during the summer. In China, harvest is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In India, conditions are favourable for the Kharif crop (larger season) as harvest progresses. In Mexico, October rainfall continues to support the development of the spring-summer crop (larger season), however, earlier dryness remains a concern. In Brazil, sowing of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is progressing under favourable conditions. A reduction in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In Argentina, sowing of the early-planted crop (usually larger season) is ongoing under favourable conditions owing to timely October rainfall. In South Africa, sowing is off to a slow start due to a delayed start to the rainy season.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Rice: In China, harvesting of single-season rice wraps up as it begins for the late double-crop. In India, harvesting of the Kharif crop (larger season) is progressing in the northern part of the country under favourable conditions. There is a large increase in total sown area compared to last year and the average. In Bangladesh, conditions are generally favourable for the Aman crop (mid-sized season) albeit with some losses in the east from the August floods. In Indonesia, harvesting of dry-season rice is continuing under favourable conditions as the sowing of wet-season rice begins at a faster pace than last year. In Viet Nam, wet-season rice (summer-autumn and seasonal) is beginning to harvest in the north under mixed conditions due to damage from storms Yagi and Soulik. In the south, the harvest of wet-season rice (summer-autumn) is wrapping up as harvest begins for the other wet-season rice (autumn-winter and seasonal). In Thailand, wet-season rice is in the grain-filling stage under favourable conditions. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is harvesting under mixed conditions due to damage from multiple tropical cyclones that enhanced the southwest monsoon. In Japan, conditions are favourable as harvest wraps up. In Brazil, sowing continues under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Soybeans: In the US, harvest is wrapping up faster than normal under exceptional conditions and with a forecasted record for national yields. In Canada, yields are above-average in Ontario and Manitoba, while below-average in Saskatchewan as harvesting wraps up. In China, harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In India, harvesting is continuing under favourable conditions with an increase in total sown area compared to last year and the long-term average. In Ukraine, harvest is wrapping up with below-average yields in the central, eastern, and southern areas due to extremely hot and dry weather during the season, however, conditions are favourable in the western region. In Brazil, regular rainfall has picked up in Central-West, South and Southeast regions, supporting the expansion of sowing activities. However, in the north, sowing is still in the early stages as farmers await rainfall. An increase in the total sown area is estimated compared to last season.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning.
Climate Influences: ENSO Transitioning Period
La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 71 to 75 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025. If La Niña does develop, it will likely be a weak (0.5-1.0C) and short-lived event, likely returning to ENSO-neutral conditions by March 2025.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole index values occurred in October and negative values are forecast through November, raising the chances that below-average rainfall will continue to impact eastern East Africa during the short rains season. Current extreme deficits, combined with further poor precipitation, will likely lead to wide-spread crop failure in Somalia and Eastern Kenya, and severe degradation of pasture conditions.
2024 will almost certainly be the warmest year on record, according to NOAA NCEI's latest statistical analysis. September 2024 was the second warmest September on record and followed a 15-month streak of record-high global temperatures. Very warm ocean temperatures contributed to extreme storm development during the active June to November 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season. If a La Niña develops, forecast very warm western Pacific Ocean conditions would strengthen temperature gradients, which could potentially enhance or prolong impacts. In agricultural areas such as central Brazil, where models are forecasting highly above-average temperatures into 2025, excessive heat will be an ongoing concern during periods of moisture stress or reproductive stages that determine final yields.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over southwest Peru, southern and central Brazil, northern Norway, Gabon, southern Republic of Congo, western Democratic Republic of Congo, northwest Angola, central Russian Federation, northern and southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, northern Pakistan, southern India, Sri Lanka, central and northern China, western Republic of Korea, southern Japan, western and eastern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and western and eastern Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over western and central Canada, southwest and the southeast US, northwest Mexico, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and northeast Brazil, eastern Argentina, southern Uruguay, Ireland, United Kingdom, Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, northern Italy, southern and northern Germany, southeast Poland, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, northwest Türkiye, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, eastern and western Russia Federation, northern Morocco, western Algeria, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, northern Côte d'Ivoire, southwest Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, central and southern Benin, central and southern Nigeria, central Cameroon, southern Chad, western Central African Republic, central Ethiopia, coastal Somalia, eastern Kenya, eastern Tanzania, central Zambia, central and southern Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Jordan, central and southern Iraq, northern Saudi Arabia, western and southern Iran, central Afghanistan, the Philippines, northern Papua New Guinea, northern Australia, and central New Zealand.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 9 – 22 November 2024, issued on 1 November 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Argentina Outlook
The 5 – 11 November precipitation anomaly forecast (upper left) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation across the agricultural areas within northern Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, Santa Fe, Chaco, Formosa, and Misiones. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country. The 12 – 18 November precipitation anomaly forecast (upper right) indicates likely below-average precipitation across Misiones, eastern Entre Rios, and eastern Buenos Aires, while above-average across northern Santa Fe and eastern Santiago del Estero. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be near-average across most of the country.
The November-December-January 2024/2025 precipitation forecast (lower left) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation across Cordoba, Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and Buenos Aires. During the same time, the temperature forecast (lower right) indicates likely above-average temperatures across most of the country.
Upper Left: 5 – 11 November 2024 forecast precipitation anomaly in mm. Upper Right: 12 – 18 November 2024 precipitation anomaly in mm. Lower Left: November-January 2024/2025 precipitation probability forecast. Lower Right: November-January 2024/2025 temperature probability forecast. Images from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina.
Brazil Outlook
The November outlook indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over parts of the central, southeast, and southern regions, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over the northern and northeast regions. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country except along parts of the southeast coastal areas. Based on the current drought conditions, leaning towards above-average precipitation in the parts of the Central and South regions will likely help alleviate drought conditions, while leaning towards below-average precipitation and likely above-average temperatures in the north region will likely continue or increase drought conditions. The leaning toward above-average precipitation in the southeast region will likely continue the wet conditions already present.
Upper Left: November 2024 precipitation anomaly issued October 2024. Upper Right: November 2024 temperature anomaly issued October 2024. Bottom: SPI Three-month Drought Severity (CHIRPS) (August 1st – October 31, 2024). Maps from the National Institute of Meteorology and the USDA Crop Explorer
United States Outlook
The November outlook indicates probable above-average precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes, while below-average precipitation across the East Coast from North Carolina to southern Maine. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average from the East Coast into the Great Plains with the highest likelihood along the East Coast and the Gulf States. The November outlook will likely relieve some of the current drought conditions from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes, while likely to further develop drought conditions along the East Coast, particularly in the Southeast.
Upper Left: November 2024 precipitation outlook for the US issued on 31 October 2024. Upper Right: November 2024 temperature outlook for the US issued on 31 October 2024. Lower Center: Drought outlook for the US indicating likely changes in the current drought conditions based upon the forecasted November outlooks. Maps from NOAA Climate.gov