Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 121: Published October 3rd, 2024
Conditions as of September 28th
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Overview
At the end of September, conditions are mixed for wheat while favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans. In the northern hemisphere, spring wheat harvest is wrapping up as sowing begins for winter wheat under mixed conditions. In the southern hemisphere, conditions are mixed in parts of Australia and Argentina. Maize is harvesting in the northern hemisphere under exceptional conditions in most of the US, while mixed in Europe. In the southern hemisphere, sowing is beginning in Brazil. Rice conditions are generally favourable; however, super typhoon Yagi and heavy monsoon rains have negatively impacted northern countries in Southeast Asia. Soybean conditions are exceptional in the US and in parts of Europe, while poor in parts of Eastern Europe, the southern Russian Federation, and Ukraine.
Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of September 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data from all Crop Monitors. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, spring wheat harvesting is progressing as winter wheat sowing begins. In the southern hemisphere, crops are under mixed conditions.
Maize – In the northern hemisphere, harvesting begins under diverse crop conditions. In the southern hemisphere, sowing is beginning in Brazil.
Rice – Conditions are generally favourable, however, super typhoon Yagi and heavy monsoon rains have negatively impacted northern countries in South East Asia.
Soybeans – In the northern hemisphere, harvest is beginning under exceptional conditions in the US, while under poor conditions in the Russian Federation and Ukraine. In the southern hemisphere, sowing is beginning in Brazil.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – ENSO-neutral conditions have been present since June 2024. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 71 to 83 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025.
Argentina – For the two weeks, conditions will likely be drier than average along the eastern agricultural areas. In the long-term (October-December), the drier than average and warmer than average conditions are likely across the entire country.
Brazil – The October outlook a leaning toward above-average precipitation in the South while below-average precipitation in the Central West and the North, while temperatures are likely to be above-average.
United States – During October, below-average precipitation is likely from the central Rockies to the southern Great Plains and into the Mid-West, while at the same time as likely above-average temperatures.
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of September 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Wheat: In the Russian Federation, spring wheat harvest is ongoing under generally favourable conditions, albeit slowed by abundant rainfall in parts of Siberia. Winter wheat sowing is beginning under mixed conditions as crops are being sown into dry soils. In Ukraine, the sowing of winter wheat is behind schedule due to dry soils in over 50 percent of the country, particularly in the main southern and central growing regions. In China, spring wheat harvesting wraps up under favourable conditions. In the US, harvesting of spring wheat wraps up with above-average yields as winter wheat sowing begins. In Canada, spring wheat harvesting is progressing under variable conditions due to earlier dry weather in the western Prairies. In Australia, conditions for crops to be harvested starting in October are exceptional in New South Wales and Queensland, however, dry conditions have negatively impacted yields in parts of South Australia and Victoria. In Argentina, conditions are mixed for winter wheat due to a lack of soil moisture and high temperatures in the northern and western regions, while ample rainfall and good temperatures in the eastern, central, and southern regions have supported crop development.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of September 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Maize: In the US, harvest is beginning under mostly exceptional conditions in the Corn Belt, however, earlier hot and dry weather has reduced yields along the East Coast, which is a more minor growing region. In Canada, conditions are favourable with an expected increase in national average yields compared to last year. In the EU, harvest is ongoing as continuing hot and dry weather negatively impacts southern-central and eastern countries, particularly Bulgaria and Romania. In Ukraine, harvest is beginning after hot and dry weather during July and August significantly degraded yields in the southern, central, and eastern regions. In the Russian Federation, harvest is beginning with poor yields expected in the southern region due to earlier hot and dry weather. In China, conditions are favourable as harvest progresses north for the summer-planted crop. In India, conditions are favourable for the Kharif crop (larger season). In Mexico, improved September rain has helped wrap up the sowing of the spring-summer crop (larger season), however, dry conditions at the start of the season remain a concern. In Brazil, sowing of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is beginning in the main producing South region under favourable conditions. A reduction in total sown area is expected compared to last year.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of September 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Rice: In China, harvesting of single-season rice continues. Conditions are favourable for the late double-crop. In India, continued ample rainfall in September has supported the progress of transplanting the Kharif crop (larger season). There is an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Bangladesh, conditions are generally favourable for the Aman crop (mid-sized season). In Indonesia, harvesting of dry-season rice is continuing under favourable conditions with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Viet Nam, super typhoon Yagi made landfall in the north, negatively impacting wet-season rice (summer-autumn and seasonal) yields. In the south, wet-season rice (summer-autumn) is harvesting as the other wet-season rice (autumn-winter and seasonal) develops. In Thailand, wet-season rice is in the young panicle-forming stage under mixed conditions due to flooding from the monsoon and tropical disturbances. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is harvesting under mixed conditions due to water lodging and pest damage that developed during the growing season. In Japan, conditions are generally favourable as harvest progresses. In Brazil, sowing is ongoing with an estimated increase in total sown area compared to last season.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of September 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Soybeans: In the US, harvest begins under exceptional conditions in many states with forecasted record national yields. In Canada, harvest is beginning under favourable conditions with an increase in total sown area compared to last season. In China, conditions are favourable as harvest begins in the northeast. In India, conditions remain favourable. In Ukraine, harvest is progressing with lower yields due to hot and dry weather during the growing season, however, conditions are favourable in the western region. In Brazil, sowing is just beginning in irrigated parts of the Central-West region and areas with ample soil moisture in the South region. An increase in the total sown area is estimated compared to last season.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning, published October 3rd.
Climate Influences: ENSO Transitioning Period
ENSO-neutral conditions have been present since June 2024. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 71 to 83 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America. Negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions could potentially occur in October-November and enhance La Niña impacts on rainfall in eastern East Africa and Australia.
August 2024 was the hottest August on record and the 15th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures according to NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). 2024 will rank among the warmest years on record. Above-average temperatures are forecast in many regions during late 2024, continuing the elevated likelihood of adverse heat impacts. Excessive heat can be particularly damaging during periods of moisture stress or reproductive stages that determine final yields.
Associated with the forecast La Niña and very warm temperatures, the multi-year pattern of climate extremes may continue. According to NOAA’s August update, there is a 90% chance of an overall highly active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane activity typically peaks from mid-August to October.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest Coast in the US, southern Italy, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, western Bulgaria, northern Greece, northwest Türkiye, Tunisia, northern Algeria, eastern Morocco, Mauritania, Mali, northern Guinea, Burkina Faso, western Niger, northern Benin, northwest Nigeria, northern Cameroon, the western Central African Republic, central-west China, Laos, north and northeast Thailand, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and northern Papua New Guinea
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the Prairies and western Ontario in Canada, the central US, northwest and central Mexico, Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil, Ecuador, central Peru, central and eastern Paraguay, southern Chile, Ireland, Scotland, central England, northeast Germany, northern Poland, southern Norway, Sweden, southern Finland, northern and eastern Ukraine, central and eastern Russian Federation, eastern Georgia, Azerbaijan, eastern Armenia, northern Iran, southwest Yemen, coastal Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, coastal Gabon, southwest Republic of the Congo, western and southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, central Ethiopia, Somalia, western South Africa, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, northern Pakistan, northern and southern India, Nepal, northern Bangladesh, Bhutan, northern Myanmar, western Mongolia, northern and southern China, eastern Malaysia, and Indonesia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 October 2024, issued on 27 September 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Argentina Outlook
The 2 – 8 October precipitation anomaly forecast (upper left) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation across eastern La Pampa, Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, Corrientes, Misiones, and eastern Formosa, while above-average across Santiago del Estero, northern Cordoba, San Luis, and Mendoza. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the majority of the country. The 9 – 15 October precipitation anomaly forecast (upper right) indicates near-average precipitation across the country, while slightly below-average across Misiones, Corrientes, Entre Rios, western Buenos Aires, and La Pampa. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the eastern and southern agricultural areas.
The October-November-December precipitation forecast (lower left) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation across most of the county with the highest likelihood over the central agricultural regions. During the same time, the temperature forecast (lower right) indicates likely above-average temperatures across most of the country.
Upper Left: 2 – 8 October 2024 forecast precipitation anomaly in mm. Upper Right: 9 – 15 October 2024 precipitation anomaly in mm. Lower Left: October-December 2024 precipitation probability forecast. Lower Right: October-December 2024 temperature probability forecast. Images from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina.
Brazil Outlook
The October outlook indicates a leaning towards above-average precipitation over Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Parana, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul, while a leaning towards below-average precipitation over Mato Grosso, Goiás, Para, Tocantins, western Bahia, and western Piaui. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country except in the south, where temperatures will likely be below-average. The long-term (October-November-December) outlook indicates a mix of above and below-average precipitation across the country. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country.
Upper Left: October 2024 precipitation anomaly issued September 2024. Upper Right: October 2024 temperature anomaly issued September 2024. Lower Left: October-November-December 2024 precipitation anomaly issued September 2024. Upper Right: October-November-December 2024 temperature anomaly issued September 2024. Maps from the National Institute of Meteorology
United States Outlook
The October outlook indicates probable below-average precipitation from the central Rockies to the southern Great Plains and into the Mid-West, while likely above-average along the Southeast coastal areas. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average from the West Coast through the Great Plains and into New England.
The long-term (October-November-December) outlook indicates probable below-average precipitation across the southwest and the southern Great Plains, while likely above-average in the Pacific Northwest and the northern p[portions of the Mid-West and New England. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average along the East Coast from Maine to Florida and from the southern Great Plains and the Southwest into the Central Rockies and the western portions of the central Great Plains.
Upper Left: October 2024 precipitation outlook issued on 30 September 2024. Upper Right: October 2024 temperature outlook issued on 30 September 2024. Lower Left: October-November-December 2024 precipitation outlook issued on 19 September 2024. Upper Right: October-November-December 2024 temperature outlook issued on 19 September 2024. Maps from NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, and Climate Prediction Center.