Crop Monitor for AMIS

Report Information

No. 120: Published September 5th, 2024

Conditions as of August 28th

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Overview

At the end of August, conditions are mixed for wheat while favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans. In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat harvest is wrapping up as harvesting begins for spring wheat. In the southern hemisphere, conditions are generally favourable. Maize harvest is wrapping up in Brazil, while in the northern hemisphere, crops continue to develop in anticipation of harvest beginning this month. Rice conditions are generally favourable, albeit with mixed weather in the Philippines. Soybean conditions are exceptional in the US while poor in parts of eastern Europe, the southern Russian Federation, and Ukraine. 

Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data from all Crop Monitors. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

Crop Conditions at a Glance

Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat harvest is wrapping up under mixed conditions and harvesting begins for spring wheat. In the southern hemisphere, crops are under generally favourable conditions.

Maize – In the southern hemisphere, harvest is wrapping up in Brazil. In the northern hemisphere, conditions are exceptional in the US, while poor in parts of southeastern Europe, the southern Russian Federation, and Ukraine.

Rice – Conditions are generally favourable, albeit with heavy rainfall damage from an enhanced southwest monsoon in the Philippines.

Soybeans – In the northern hemisphere, conditions are exceptional in the US while poor in parts of eastern Europe, the southern Russian Federation, and Ukraine.

Forecasts at a Glance

Climate Influences – ENSO-neutral conditions have been present since June 2024. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 67 to 74 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025.

Argentina – For the next week, precipitation is likely to be below-average across the eastern agricultural areas, while temperatures are likely to be above-average across the country.

Australia – The September outlook indicates possible above-average precipitation over parts of eastern Australia while daytime and nighttime temperatures are likely to be above-average.

United States – During September, below-average precipitation is likely in the Mid-West and into the Northern Great Plains, while temperatures are likely to be above-average from the Rockies across the Great Plains.

Wheat Conditions

Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of August 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed. 

Wheat: In the EU, harvest is wrapping up with poor yields in Belgium, France, and Italy, conversely with exceptional conditions in Bulgaria, Romania, and Spain. In the UK, harvest is wrapping up with below-average yields. In Türkiye, harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Ukraine, harvesting is concluding with exceptional yields in the western regions and poor yields in the eastern and southern regions due to dry weather and the ongoing war. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat harvest is nearing completion with reduced yields due to a frost event in May followed by hot and dry weather in June. Spring wheat harvest is beginning under favourable conditions. In China, spring wheat is being harvested. In the US, harvesting of winter wheat wraps up and progresses for spring wheat with above-average yields. In Canada, spring wheat harvesting is ongoing under variable conditions due to prolonged hot and dry weather in the western Prairies. In Australia, conditions are exceptional in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia, however, dry conditions remain in parts of South Australia and Victoria. In Argentina, conditions are mixed due to a lack of soil moisture and low temperatures in the central and northern regions, delaying crop growth.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Maize Conditions

Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of August 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.

Maize: In Brazil, harvesting of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is wrapping up ahead of last season and under generally favourable conditions except in the southeast region due to earlier hot and dry weather. In Mexico, sowing of the spring-summer crop (larger season) is progressing under mixed conditions due to the late arrival of rains. In China, conditions are favourable for both spring-planted and summer-planted crops. In India, conditions are favourable for the Kharif crop (larger season) with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In the US, conditions are exceptional across most of the Corn Belt, however, earlier hot and dry weather has likely impacted crop yields along the East Coast. There is a reduction in the total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable. In the EU, hot and dry weather continues to negatively impact crops in Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary, and Romania. In Ukraine, July’s long heatwave combined with an expanding drought during August in the southern, central, and eastern regions has severely degraded potential yields. In the Russian Federation, hot and dry weather has negatively impacted crop yields in the south.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Rice Conditions

Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of August 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.

Rice: In China, conditions are favourable as single-season crop harvesting begins and the late double-crop continues to develop. In India, the transplanting of the Kharif crop (larger season) is progressing supported by good August rainfall. In Bangladesh, harvesting is wrapping up for the Aus crop (smallest season) as flooding in the east impacts the Aman crop (mid-sized season). In Indonesia, the sowing and harvesting of dry-season rice continues with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Viet Nam, wet-season rice (summer-autumn) is developing in the north alongside the sowing of the main wet-season rice (seasonal). In the south, harvesting of wet-season rice (summer-autumn) continues alongside the development of the other wet-season rice (autumn-winter and seasonal). In Thailand, wet-season rice is in the tillering stage under favourable conditions. In the Philippines, harvest is beginning for wet-season rice under mixed conditions due to recent heavy rainfall damage from an enhanced southwest monsoon and previous dry weather during sowing. In Japan, conditions are generally favourable, however, a lack of sunlight and the recent landfall of Typhoon Shanshan have likely impacted yields in the southwest.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Soybean Conditions

Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of August 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.

Soybeans: In the US, conditions are exceptional across a large portion of the major producing states with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable, however, exceptionally hot and dry conditions in Saskatchewan have accelerated development, leading to possible yield declines. In China, conditions are favourable as the crops are in the pod-filling stage. In India, conditions are favourable with a slight increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Ukraine, a hot and dry August has spread and deepened the ongoing drought conditions in the southern and eastern regions, however, the biggest damage to crop yields was during the July heatwave. Conditions remain favourable in the western region.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page. 

Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.

Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning, published September 5th.

Climate Influences: ENSO Transitioning Period

ENSO-neutral conditions have been present since June 2024. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 67 to 74 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025.

La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States of America, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America. 

July 2024 was the hottest July on record and the 14th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures according to NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). 2024 will rank among the warmest years on record. Above-average temperatures are forecast in many regions during late 2024, continuing the elevated likelihood of adverse heat impacts. Excessive heat can be particularly damaging during periods of moisture stress or reproductive stages that determine final yields.

Associated with the forecast La Niña and very warm temperatures, the multi-year pattern of climate extremes may continue. According to NOAA’s August update, there is a 90% chance of an overall highly active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane activity typically peaks from mid-August to October.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC

Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation

The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the Pacific Northwest Coast in the US, southern Italy, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, western Bulgaria, northern Greece, northwest Türkiye, Tunisia, northern Algeria, eastern Morocco, Mauritania, Mali, northern Guinea, Burkina Faso, western Niger, northern Benin, northwest Nigeria, northern Cameroon, the western Central African Republic, central-west China, Laos, north and northeast Thailand, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and northern Papua New Guinea

There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the Prairies and western Ontario in Canada, the central US, northwest and central Mexico, Columbia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil, Ecuador, central Peru, central and eastern Paraguay, southern Chile, Ireland, Scotland, central England, northeast Germany, northern Poland, southern Norway, Sweden, southern Finland, northern and eastern Ukraine, central and eastern Russian Federation, eastern Georgia, Azerbaijan, eastern Armenia, northern Iran, southwest Yemen, coastal Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, coastal Gabon, southwest Republic of the Congo, western and southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, central Ethiopia, Somalia, western South Africa, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, western Kyrgyzstan, western Tajikistan, northern Pakistan, northern and southern India, Nepal, northern Bangladesh, Bhutan, northern Myanmar, western Mongolia, northern and southern China, eastern Malaysia, and Indonesia.

Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 – 20 September 2024, issued on 30 August 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom

Argentina Outlook

The 4 – 10 September precipitation anomaly forecast (upper left) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation across the eastern half of the agricultural areas, particularly over northeast Burneos Aires and Entre Rios. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country. The 11 – 17 September precipitation anomaly forecast (upper right) indicates near-average precipitation across the country. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country, particularly in the northern agricultural areas.

The September-October-November precipitation forecast (lower left) indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation across most of the county with the highest likelihood of below-average precipitation over the central agricultural regions. At the same time, the September-October-November temperature forecast (lower right) indicates temperatures will likely be above-average across most of the country, particularly in the northwest.

Upper Left: 4 – 10 September 2024 forecast precipitation anomaly in mm. Upper Right: 11 – 17 September 2024 forecast temperature anomaly in C Lower Left: September-November 2024 precipitation probability forecast.  Lower Right: September-November 2024 temperature probability forecast.  Images from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina.

Australia Outlook

The September outlook for Australia (top) indicates a likelihood of exceeding the median rainfall across Queensland, northern New South Wales, Tasmania, and northern Northern Territory. Conversely, parts of Western Australia will likely have below-average precipitation. During September, the medium maximum (top) and minimum temperatures are likely to be exceeded across most of the country except for parts of southern Western Australia, indicating likely above-average daytime and nighttime temperatures.

Top: Chance of exceeding the median rainfall for September 2024. Bottom: Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature for September 2024. All data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.

United States Outlook

The September outlook indicates probable below-average precipitation across the northern Mid-West extending across to the Northern Plains. Conversely, above-average precipitation is likely over the Pacific Northwest, the Southeast, and Texas. During the same time, temperatures will likely be above-average from the Rockies across the Great Plains and in the Southeast. Conversely, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the Mid-Atlantic.

Left: September 2024 precipitation outlook issued on 31 August 2024. Right: September 2024 temperature outlook issued on 31 August 2024. Maps from NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, and Climate Prediction Center. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center