Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 119: Published August 1st, 2024
Conditions as of July 28th
For access to all reports, please visit the Archive.
Overview
At the end of July, conditions are mixed for wheat and maize while favourable for rice, and soybeans. Winter wheat is harvesting continues in the northern hemisphere under mixed conditions as sowing wraps up in the southern hemisphere. Maize harvesting is wrapping up in the southern hemisphere under mixed conditions as development progresses in the northern hemisphere. Rice conditions are favourable, albeit with some transplanting delays in India. Soybean conditions are favourable as crops continue to develop in the northern hemisphere.
Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of July 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data from all Crop Monitors. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat harvest is progressing with areas of concern in parts of Europe, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine, while above-average yields are expected in parts of Europe and the US. In the southern hemisphere, crops are under generally favourable conditions.
Maize – In the southern hemisphere, the harvest is progressing in Argentina and Brazil. In the northern hemisphere, there are areas of concern in the North China Plain, Mexico, Romania, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine.
Rice – Conditions are generally favourable, albeit with a delay in transplanting in eastern India and dry weather in the Philippines.
Soybeans – In the northern hemisphere, conditions are generally favourable except in Romania, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 70 to 81% chance of La Niña during August 2024 to February 2025.
Argentina– For the next two weeks, precipitation will likely be near-average, while temperatures will likely be above-average next week, followed by below-average temperatures.
Europe– The three-month outlook indicates possible below-average precipitation over parts of Spain, while likely above-average temperatures over all of Europe.
United States – During August, above-average precipitation is likely in the southeast, while below-average precipitation is likely over the Rockies and the central Great Plains.
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of July 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Wheat: In the EU, harvest is progressing, with poor conditions in France and Italy, while exceptional conditions are in Bulgaria, Romania, and Spain. In the UK, overly wet conditions earlier in the season have resulted in expected below-average yields. In Türkiye, conditions are favourable as harvesting continues. In Ukraine, harvesting is progressing with exceptional yields in the western regions while dry weather and the ongoing war have impacted final yields in the eastern and southern regions. In the Russian Federation, harvest is continuing for winter wheat with reduced yields due to a frost event in May followed by hot and dry weather in June. Spring wheat is under favourable conditions, albeit with a reduction in total sown area due to cold and wet conditions during sowing. In China, conditions are favourable for spring wheat. In the US, winter wheat harvest progresses with good yields as spring wheat develops under exceptional conditions. In Canada, spring wheat remains under favourable conditions. In Australia, July rainfall continues to support crop development across most of the country, however, soil moisture deficits remain in parts of South Australia and Victoria. In Argentina, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions, albeit with a recent cold wave slowing early crop development.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of July 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Maize: In Brazil, harvesting of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is progressing with concern in the South and Southeast regions due to the lack of rain and high temperatures during the reproductive stages. However, conditions are favourable in the Central West region. In Argentina, harvesting of the late-planted crop (smaller season) is speeding up, however, yields have been reduced in the central and northern regions due to the impact of corn stunt disease. In Mexico, harvesting is wrapping up for the autumn-winter crop (smaller season) under mixed conditions due to hot and dry conditions during the season. The sowing of the spring-summer crop (larger season) progresses under mixed conditions. In China, conditions are mixed, as persistent hot and dry weather in June switched to excessive rainfall and flooding in the northern Yangtze Valley and the North China Plain. In India, sowing of the Kharif crop (larger season) is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In the US, conditions are favourable across the main producing Corn Belt, however, hot and dry weather has impacted crops in parts of the Southeast. In Canada, conditions are favourable. In the EU, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with hot and dry weather continuing to negatively impact crops in southeastern Romania. In Ukraine, a long heatwave combined with a lack of precipitation in the southern, central, and eastern regions has severely degraded potential yields. In the Russian Federation, recent hot and dry weather is negatively impacting crops.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of July 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Rice: In China, harvesting is wrapping up for the early double-crop as the sowing of the late double-crop wraps up. Single-season rice is under favourable conditions. In India, the transplanting of the Kharif crop (larger season) is ongoing, albeit delayed in a few eastern states due to rainfall deficits. In Bangladesh, harvesting is continuing for the Aus crop (smallest season) as the sowing of the Aman crop (mid-sized season) continues. In Indonesia, the sowing of dry-season rice continues as harvesting of earlier sown crops begins under favourable conditions. In Viet Nam, sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn) continues in the north as growing conditions improve in the south while harvesting of earlier sown rice begins. In Thailand, the sowing of wet-season rice is continuing under favourable conditions, albeit with a likely reduction in the total sown area compared to the 5-year average. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under mixed conditions with lower yields expected due to below-average rainfall across most of the country. Conversely, continuous rains have caused flooding in some provinces of Mindanao.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of July 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Soybeans: In the US, conditions are favourable with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable, albeit with some areas of excess moisture in parts of Manitoba, Ontario, and Saskatchewan. In China, conditions are generally favourable, however, excessive rainfall in parts of the upper Yangtze Valley and the North China Plain is inundating fields. In India, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Ukraine, a long heatwave combined with a lack of precipitation in the southern, central, and eastern regions has severely degraded potential yields. However, conditions remain favourable in the western region, where there has been a large shift toward growing more soybeans since the beginning of the war.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning, published August 1st
Climate Influences: ENSO Transitioning Period
ENSO-neutral conditions are present. La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 70 to 81% chance of La Niña during August 2024 to February 2025.
Reflecting a La Niña influence, the August-to-October seasonal forecasts indicate above-normal precipitation in India, the Maritime Continent, northern East Africa, the African Sahel region, and Central America. During late 2024 to early 2025, La Niña would raise the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation would become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently neutral. Observations have trended toward a negative IOD in recent weeks, with several models predicting a negative IOD during September to November 2024. Negative IOD conditions are associated with low rainfall in East Africa.
June 2024 was the hottest June on record, and the 13th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures. 2024 will be among the top five warmest years on record. There will likely be agricultural impacts from extreme heat, particularly if heat occurs during periods of moisture stress or the key reproductive stages that determine final yields.
Associated with the forecast La Niña and very warm temperatures, the multi-year pattern of climate extremes may continue. A very active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is anticipated.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over Alaska in the US, central Peru, northern and eastern Bolivia, central and southeast Brazil, Mali, Niger, Chad, Sudan, Eritrea, northern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Yemen, eastern and western Oman, northern Kazakhstan, Siberia in the Russian Federation, south-central Afghanistan, Pakistan, northeast India, central China, and southern and eastern Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over western Canada, the Pacific Northwest and the southern Great Plains in the US, northeast and central Mexico, eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and northeast Brazil, the western United Kingdom, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Kosovo, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, western Türkiye, western Russian Federation, western Mauritania, northern Senegal, Sierra Leone, southern Guinea, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, southern Nigeria, western Cameroon, Gabon, central Republic of the Congo, western Democratic Republic of Congo, southern Uganda, northern and northeast Tanzania, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, western Mongolia, the Republic of Korea, Japan, southern Viet Nam, southern Laos, Cambodia, southwest Indonesia, and the northeast coast of Australia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 3 – 16 August 2024, issued on 26 July 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Argentina Outlook
The 31 July – 6 August precipitation anomaly forecast (upper left) indicates a likelihood of near-average rainfall over most of the country. During the same period, temperatures (upper right) will likely be above-average over the main agricultural areas.
The 7 – 13 August precipitation anomaly forecast (lower left) indicates a likelihood of near-average rainfall over most of the country except for eastern Buenos Aires, where below-average precipitation is forecast. During the same period, temperatures (lower right) will likely be below-average over the main agricultural areas, particularly in the north and east.
Upper Left: 31 July – 6 August 2024 forecast precipitation anomaly in mm. Upper Right: 31 July – 6 August 2024 forecast temperature anomaly in C Lower Left: 7 – 13 August 2024 forecast precipitation anomaly in mm. Lower Right: 7 – 13 August 2024 forecast temperature anomaly in C. Images from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina.
Europe Outlook
The August-September-October forecast for Europe indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation in parts of Spain, while a leaning towards below-average in southern and western France, Italy, southern and western Romania, Bulgaria, southern Serbia, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Greece, Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. During the same time, temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across Spain, Italy, Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, southeast Romania, Türkiye, and Armenia.
Top: Probability forecast for precipitation during August-September-October 2024. Bottom: Probability forecast for 2-meter temperature during August-September-October 2024. All data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).
United States Outlook
The August outlook indicates probable above-average precipitation across the Southeast and extending up the East Coasts into New England. Conversely, below-average precipitation is likely over the Rocky Mountains and into the central Great Plains. During the same time, temperatures will likely be above-average across most of the continental United States, with the highest probabilities over the Rockies, southern Great Plains, and the Mid-Atlantic regions.
Upper Left: August 2024 precipitation outlook issued on 18 July 2024. Upper Right: August 2024 temperature outlook issued on 18 July 2024. Maps from NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, and Climate Prediction Center https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center