Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 118: Published July 4th, 2024
Conditions as of June 28th
For access to all reports, please visit the Archive.
Overview
At the end of June, conditions are mixed for wheat and maize while favourable for rice, and soybeans. Winter wheat is harvesting in the northern hemisphere under mixed conditions as sowing continues in the southern hemisphere. Maize harvesting is progressing in the southern hemisphere under mixed conditions as sowing is progressing in the northern hemisphere. Rice conditions are favourable, albeit with some hot and dry conditions in parts of Asia. Soybean conditions are favourable as sowing wraps up in the northern hemisphere.
Global crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data from all Crop Monitors. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat harvest is progressing with areas of concern in parts of Europe, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. In the southern hemisphere, sowing continues in Argentina as crops develop in Australia.
Maize – In the southern hemisphere, the harvest is progressing under mixed conditions. In the northern hemisphere, there are areas of concern in Mexico, the North China Plain, Romania, and Ukraine.
Rice – Conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some dry conditions in parts of China, southern Viet Nam, and the Philippines.
Soybeans – In the northern hemisphere, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions except near the conflict areas in Ukraine.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – ENSO-neutral conditions have been present since May 2024. The CPC/IRI predicts a 65% chance of La Niña during the summer of 2024, and chances remain high into early 2025. May 2024 was the hottest May on record and the 12th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures. 2024 will be among the top five warmest years on record.
Australia – For July, the forecast indicates that precipitation will likely be below-average across much of the north, southeast, Tasmania, and parts of southwest Western Australia.
India – The Southwest Monsoon has now covered the entire country. For July, above-average precipitation is expected over most of the country.
United States – During July, above-average precipitation is likely in the upper Midwest, while temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the US except for the upper Midwest.
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of June 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Wheat: In the EU, excessive water has negatively affected crop growth and hindered field operations, reducing potential yields in Austria, France, Italy, and the Netherlands. In the UK, recent good weather has enabled winter wheat to partially recover, however, yields will likely be below the 5-year average. In Türkiye, recent wet and warm weather is supporting grain filling. In Ukraine, harvesting is beginning 2-3 weeks earlier than usual due to the warm weather. Despite the recent predominantly dry weather, prospects remain good away from the war zones. In the Russian Federation, prolonged dryness and then sharp freezes in May have negatively impacted winter wheat. Spring wheat development has been affected by dry and cold weather in the west and excess rain in Siberia. In China, harvesting is continuing for winter wheat. In the US, conditions are generally favourable as winter wheat harvest is progressing and spring wheat continues to develop. In Canada, conditions have improved for spring wheat owing to ample rainfall. In Australia, close-to-average June rainfall has benefitted crops across most of the country, however, soil moisture conditions remain below-average in parts of Queensland, South Australia, and Victoria. In Argentina, sowing is progressing despite a delay due to the late harvesting of the summer crops.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of June 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Maize: In Brazil, harvest is wrapping up in the Northeast region for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) with poor yields due to a lack of rain and high temperatures. Harvesting of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is progressing with some concern in parts of the South and Southeast regions due to the lack of rain and high temperatures during the reproductive stages. In Argentina, harvesting of the late-planted crop (smaller season) is progressing under mixed conditions due to the impact of corn stunt disease. In Mexico, conditions are mixed due to prolonged hot and dry weather as harvesting continues for the autumn-winter crop (smaller season) alongside the sowing of the spring-summer crop (larger season). In China, conditions are generally favourable, however, persistent hot and dry conditions in the North China Plain are of concern. In India, sowing of the Kharif crop (larger season) begins under favourable conditions. In the US, most of the crops are emerging under favourable conditions, despite excessive heat in the east and excessive rainfall in the northwestern Corn Belt. In Canada, conditions are favourable. In the EU, the outlook is favourable, albeit with dry conditions in southeastern Romania. In the Russian Federation, dry conditions remain a concern for crops.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of June 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Rice: In China, harvest begins for the early double-crop as the sowing of the late double-crop begins. Single-season rice has benefitted from ample rainfall south of the Yangtze River. In India, sowing of the Kharif crop (larger season) begins under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, harvest is starting for the Aus crop (smallest season) as the sowing of the Aman crop (mid-sized season) continues. In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season rice is wrapping up as the sowing of dry-season rice continues, supported by ample rainfall. In Viet Nam, harvesting has begun for dry-season rice (winter-spring) in the north as the sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn) begins. In the south, sowing is delayed for wet-season rice (summer-autumn) due to hot weather and a lack of rainfall. In Thailand, the sowing of wet-season rice is continuing, however, reduced rainfall will likely lead to a reduction in the total sown area compared to the 5-year average. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under mixed conditions due to below-average rainfall across most of the country, despite the impact of typhoon “Ewiniar”, which caused some flooding damage.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of June 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Soybeans: In the US, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, sowing is being completed under favourable conditions despite excess moisture over parts of Manitoba, Ontario, and Saskatchewan. In China, conditions are favourable with good soil moisture supporting crop development in the main producing northeast region. In India, sowing is beginning under favourable conditions. In Ukraine, conditions are favourable away from the war zone, however, additional rainfall will be necessary to support development, particularly in the eastern regions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning, published April 4th.
Climate Influences: ENSO Transitioning Period
ENSO-neutral conditions have been present since May 2024. The CPC/IRI predicts a 65% chance of La Niña during the summer of 2024, and chances remain high into early 2025.
Reflecting a La Niña influence, the July to September seasonal forecasts indicate above-normal precipitation in India, the Maritime Continent, northern East Africa, the African Sahel region, and Central America. During late 2024 to early 2025, La Niña conditions would raise the chances of below-average precipitation in East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States of America, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation would become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
May 2024 was the hottest May on record, and the 12th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures. 2024 will be among the top five warmest years on record. There will likely be agricultural impacts from extreme heat, particularly if heat occurs during periods of moisture stress or the key reproductive stages that determine final yields.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the US southwest, southeast Brazil, central Burkina Faso, central Niger, Chad, northern Central African Republic, Sudan, eastern South Sudan, central Ethiopia, Uganda, northeastern and western Kazakhstan, eastern Afghanistan, Pakistan, western India, Oman, eastern Yemen, eastern Mongolia, northeastern and the Nort China Plain in China, The Democratic Republic of Korea, Laos, northern Viet Nam, and eastern and southeastern Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the Prairies and western Canada, the Pacific Northwest and southern Great Plains of the US, central Columbia, Suriname, northern and western and southern Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Paraguay, Chile, northern Argentina, northern Ukraine, Moldova, eastern Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, western Türkiye, central and southern Russian Federation, eastern Mauritania, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southwest Cameroon, northern Gabon, western Democratic Republic of the Congo, southwest Mongolia, southern China, eastern India, southern Japan, Malaysia, and central Indonesia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 6 - 19 July 2024, issued on 28 June 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Australia Outlook
For July, the forecast indicates that precipitation will likely be near average for most of the country. However, below-average precipitation is likely across much of the north, southeast, Tasmania, and parts of southwest Western Australia. During the same time, the maximum temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across much of the country. For August, the forecast indicates that precipitation will likely be near average for most of the country except for the pastoral areas in central Australia. During the same time, the maximum temperatures are highly likely to be above-average across much of the country.
Upper Left: Chance of exceeding the median rainfall for July 2024. Upper Right: Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature for July 2024. Lower Left: Chance of exceeding the median rainfall for August 2024. Lower Right: Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature for August 2024. Maps from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
India Outlook
As of July 2nd, the Southwest Monsoon (Figure 1 left) has now covered the entire country, 6 days before the average date (July 8th) for covering the entire country. Rainfall during July over the entire country (Figure 1 right) is likely to be above average (106% of the long-term average). The average to above-average rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except for parts of the northeast, northwest, east, and southeast peninsular where below-average rainfall is likely.
At the same time, the minimum temperatures are most likely to be above-average over most parts of the country except for parts of the northwest and adjoining areas of central India, and some areas of the southeastern peninsular where average to below-average minimum temperatures are likely. Maximum temperatures are likely to be average to below-average over most of the Northwest and south peninsular, except for the West coast. Above-average maximum temperatures are likely over most of the central, east, and northeast regions, and along the west coast.
Figure 1 Left: Advance of the Southwest Monsoon as of 2 July 2024. Right: Probability forecast of tercile categories (Below Normal, Normal, and Above Normal) of rainfall over India during July 2024. The white areas indicate no signal by the model. All data from the India Meteorological Department
United States Outlook
The July outlook indicates probable above-average precipitation in the upper Midwest and along the Gulf and East Coasts. Conversely, below-average precipitation is likely over the Pacific Northwest and the southern Great Plains. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the continental United States except for in the upper Midwest.
Upper Left: July 2024 precipitation outlook issued on 30 June 2024. Upper Right: July 2024 temperature outlook issued on 30 June 2024. Maps from NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, and Climate Prediction Center. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center