Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 117: Published June 6th, 2024
Conditions as of May 28th
For access to all reports, please visit the Archive.
Overview
At the end of June, conditions are mixed for wheat, while favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans. Winter wheat is under generally mixed conditions in the northern hemisphere due to a mix of dry or overly wet weather. Maize harvesting is progressing in the southern hemisphere as sowing is progressing in the northern hemisphere. Rice conditions are favourable, albeit with poor finale conditions for dry-season rice in Thailand. Soybean conditions are favourable as harvesting continues in the southern hemisphere and sowing progresses in the northern hemisphere.
Global crop condition map synthesising information for all four AMIS crops as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data from all Crop Monitors. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat harvesting begins as spring wheat sowing is wrapping up. In the southern hemisphere, sowing is progressing.
Maize – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting progresses under mixed conditions in Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. In the northern hemisphere, sowing is continuing.
Rice – Conditions are favourable in Bangladesh, China, and India. In Southeast Asia, the seasons are transitioning between dry-season and wet-season crops or vice versa.
Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is progressing under mixed conditions, while in the northern hemisphere, sowing is continuing under favourable conditions.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – The next several months will likely be a transition period, from rapidly waning El Niño conditions, into ENSO neutral and then likely emergent La Niña conditions. The CPC/IRI predicts a 69 chance of La Niña during July to September 2024, and chances remain high into early 2025.
Mexico – In June, below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures are likely to continue across the central and northern parts of the country, while in July above-average precipitation is likely across most of the country.
Southeast Asia – During June to August (JJA) 2024, seasonal forecasts predict wetter-than-normal conditions in Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern areas in the Philippines. Conversely, in central and northern areas of the Philippines, there are increased chances of below-normal rainfall.
United States – During June, above-average precipitation is probable in the central and southern Great Plains, while below-average precipitation is probable in the northern Rockies and the northern Great Plains.
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of May 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Wheat: In the EU, weather conditions have greatly varied, with excess rainfall resulting in water logging and high pest pressure in parts of western Europe, while also supporting exceptional crop conditions in Portugal, Romania, and Spain. In the UK, an overly wet winter and spring combined with recent warm weather has brought pressure from pests. In Türkiye, conditions remain favourable despite recent dry weather in the west. In Ukraine, drought conditions since mid-April are negatively impacting crops in the southern region alongside the persistent impacts of the ongoing war. In the Russian Federation, sharp and prolonged freezes in May have likely negatively impacted both winter and spring wheat across a wide area. In China, conditions are favourable as winter wheat harvest begins. In the US, conditions are mostly favourable for winter wheat, except in Kansas where dry conditions remain. The sowing of spring wheat is continuing. In Canada, the sowing of spring wheat continues with possible drought concerns in parts of the Prairies. In Australia, sowing is continuing with above-average conditions in New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria, while dry conditions prevail in South Australia and Western Australia. In Argentina, sowing is beginning in the central agricultural areas with good soil moisture levels.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of May 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Maize: In Brazil, for the spring-planted crop (smaller season), harvesting is delayed with yields below the 5-year average in the Southeast and Northeast regions due to a lack of rain and high temperatures during sowing and crop development. Harvesting of the summer-planted crop (larger season) has begun in some areas as rainfall in the South region has stabilised crop conditions. In Argentina, harvesting of the early-planted crop (larger season) is wrapping up in many areas under favourable conditions. As the harvesting of the late-planted crop (smaller season) begins, initial yields are highly variable due to the impact of corn stunt disease being spread by the maize leafhopper insect. In South Africa, harvesting is wrapping up under poor conditions in the Free State and North West provinces. In Mexico, drought conditions remain as the autumn-winter crop (smaller season) is being harvested alongside the sowing of the spring-summer crop (larger season). In China, conditions are favourable for the development of spring maize and the sowing of summer maize. In the US, sowing is progressing under favourable conditions. In the EU, sowing is wrapping up albeit with some delays in France and Bulgaria due to cold and wet weather. In the Russian Federation, sharp and prolonged freezes may have impacted crops.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of May 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Rice: In China, conditions are favourable for both the early-planted and single-season rice crops with ample rainfall in the southwest. In India, Rabi and summer rice harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Bangladesh, harvesting wraps up for the Boro crop (largest season) as the sowing of the Aus crop (smallest season) wraps up and the sowing of the Aman crop (mid-sized season) begins. In Indonesia, wet-season rice harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. Due to high rainfall, dry-season rice sowing is continuing at a quicker rate than average. In Viet Nam, dry-season rice (winter-spring rice) is under favourable conditions in the north as harvesting continues in the south. The sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn) is accelerating in the South. In Thailand, dry-season rice harvesting is wrapping up under poor conditions due to drought. The sowing of wet-season rice is starting with an expected increase in total sown area compared to last season. In the Philippines, dry-season rice harvesting is wrapping up with a slight yield loss due to reduced rainfall during the season. Sowing of wet-season rice is beginning. In Brazil, harvesting is wrapping up under poor conditions due to recent flooding in Rio Grande do Sul.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of May 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Soybeans: In Brazil, harvesting is wrapping up in the South region with yields close to average despite periods of below and above-average rainfall and some damage from the flooding events in May. In Argentina, harvesting of the early-planting crop (typically larger season) is advancing with above-average yields in parts of Entre Ríos and Buenos Aires, albeit with below-average yields in the northeast due to drought. As harvesting begins for the late-planted crop (typically smaller season), good yields are expected due to timely rainfall in February. In the US, sowing continues under favourable conditions with over half the crop in the ground. In Canada, sowing is beginning under generally favourable conditions with an expected slight decrease in the total sown area compared to last season. In China, sowing continues under favourable conditions with recent rainfall in the northeast assisting the emerging crop. In Ukraine, sowing is wrapping up under generally favourable conditions in areas away from the war zone.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning, published April 4th.
Climate Influences: ENSO Transitioning Period
The next several months will likely be a transition period, from rapidly waning El Niño conditions, into ENSO neutral and then likely emergent La Niña conditions. The CPC/IRI predicts a 69 chance of La Niña during July to September 2024, and chances remain high into early 2025.
Reflecting a La Niña influence, the July to September seasonal forecasts indicate above-normal precipitation in India, the Maritime Continent, northern East Africa, and Central America. During late 2024 to early 2025, La Niña conditions would raise the chances of below-average precipitation in East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern US, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation would become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
April 2024 was the hottest April on record and the 11th consecutive month of record-breaking global temperatures. 2024 will be among the top five warmest years on record, and possibly the warmest (61 percent chance). There will likely be impacts on agriculture from extreme heat, particularly if it occurs during periods of moisture stress or the key reproductive stages that determine final yields. Extreme heat also negatively affects agricultural labourers’ health and productivity.
Associated with the forecast La Niña and very warm ocean temperatures, the multi-year pattern of climate extremes may continue. A very active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is anticipated.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over parts of California in the US, southern Guatemala, El Salvador, southern Honduras, western Nicaragua, western Costa Rica, northern Columbia, northern Suriname, French Guiana, Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, northwestern Iran, southern Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, northeastern Afghanistan, and parts of southwest and southeast China.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the southwestern US, western and central Mexico, central Brazil, northern Bolivia, Paraguay, Chile, western Lithuania, western Poland, western and eastern Ukraine, Moldovia, eastern Romania, Bulgaria, central Russian Federation, eastern and central Senegal, southern Mali, northern Guinea, Burkina Faso, central Democratic Republic of Congo, central Ethiopia, southern South Africa, northwestern Kazakhstan, Pakistan, northern and central India, western Nepal, Sri Lanka, northern Mongolia, central and northern China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, central Japan, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 8 - 21 June 2024, issued on 31 May 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Mexico Outlook
The June forecasts indicate likely above-average precipitation in the southern regions of the county, while below-average precipitation across the northern and central regions of the country. During the same time, maximum temperatures are likely to continue to be above-average across the central and southern parts of the country, while below-average across the western parts of the country. During July, the forecasts indicate likely below-average precipitation in the northwest, while above-average across the rest of the country. During the same time, temperatures are likely to remain above-average across the central and eastern parts of the country, while below-average across the western parts of the country.
Upper Left: June precipitation anomaly issued June 2024. Upper Right: June maximum temperature anomaly issued June 2024. Lower Left: July precipitation anomaly issued June 2024. Lower Right: July maximum temperature anomaly issued June 2024. Maps from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN).
Southeast Asia Outlook
Rainfall between April 1st and May 25th was near-average in most mainland areas, but multiple locations accumulated substantial rainfall deficits. Rainfall was 50% to less-than 75% of average in central and southern areas in Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, the Philippines, and northern Malaysia. Above-average rainfall occurred in portions of Indonesia and northern Vietnam (Figure 1-left).
High rainfall amounts are forecast for May 29th to June 12th in central and northern Vietnam, central and southern Laos, and eastern Thailand. A NOAA CPC outlook from May 28th identified relatively high, greater-than 60% chances of a tropical cyclone in the South China Sea during June 5th to 11th. Sea surface temperatures were 1-2 degrees above average and very warm (> 30 degrees C) during late May. Such conditions can result in strong and impactful storms, and updated forecasts should be monitored. However, even if these forecasts come to fruition, seasonal rainfall totals will likely remain below average into early June in central and southern Thailand, western Cambodia, the southern Philippines, and northern peninsular and eastern Malaysia, based on an outlook for April 1st to June 10th that includes a 16-day forecast.
During June to August (JJA) 2024, associated with forecast La Niña development, multi-model C3S (Figure 1 middle-left), WMO, and NMME seasonal forecasts predict wetter-than-normal conditions in Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern areas in the Philippines. The chances for very above-average (upper 20th percentile) JJA rainfall are two to three times higher than normal, according to the C3S. In central and northern areas of the Philippines, models indicate increased chances of below-normal rainfall. In mainland areas where there have been ongoing 2024 rainfall deficits, some models indicate below-normal JJA rainfall, but not enough to support a clear rainfall outlook.
High temperatures will be a particular concern for agricultural areas that receive insufficient rainfall. During April and May, mean maximum daytime temperatures were much higher than average (Figure 1 middle-right). In addition, in mainland areas where temperatures tend to be hot during these months, there were few breaks from the heat. In Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar, data indicate that very hot days (Tmax > 35 degrees C) occurred 10 to 20+ more days than usual. Temperatures during JJA will very likely be hotter than a typical season, as illustrated by the greater-than 70% chances of upper 20th percentile JJA temperatures forecast by the C3S (Figure 1-right).
Figure 1. Seasonal rainfall anomaly, 3-month precipitation tercile anomaly, seasonal maximum temperature anomalies, and a 3-month probability of highest 20th percentile 2m temperature. Left: Percent of average rainfall for April 1st to May 25th, 2024. Based on CHIRPS Final for April and CHIRPS Preliminary for May 1st to 25th, and the 1981-2023 average. From CHC Early Estimates. Middle-right: Average daily maximum temperatures for April 1st to May 25th, 2024, shown as the difference from average for this period. Stippling shows locations with temperatures above the 95th percentile. Based on 1991-2020 data from the CHIRTS-ERA5 Tmax product, which uses ECMWF ERA5 operational and CHIRTSmax monthly historical data. Middle-left and Right: 3-month probabilistic forecasts for precipitation tercile (middle-left) and upper 20th percentile 2m temperature (Right) for June-July-August, 2024. Both panels are based on C3S multi-system seasonal forecasts from ECMWF as part of the Copernicus Programme.
United States Outlook
The June outlook indicates probable above-average precipitation across the central and southern Great Plains towards the Southeast region, with additional areas of likely above-average precipitation in the Northeast and the Pacific Northwest. Conversely, below-average precipitation is likely over the northern Rockies and the northern Great Plains. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the western half of the country reaching into the far northeast and into the far southeast.
Upper Left: June 2024 precipitation outlook issued on 31 May 2024. Upper Right: June 2024 temperature outlook issued on 31 May 2024. Maps from NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, and Climate Prediction Center https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center