Crop Monitor for AMIS
Report Information
No. 116: Published May 2nd, 2024
Conditions as of April 28th
For access to all reports, please visit the Archive.
Overview
At the end of April, conditions are mixed for soybeans, while favourable for wheat, maize, and rice. Winter wheat is under generally favourable conditions in the northern hemisphere. Maize sowing is ramping up in the northern hemisphere as harvesting is continuing in the southern hemisphere. Rice conditions are generally favourable, albeit with dry conditions impacting crops in southern India and northern Southeast Asia. Soybean conditions remain mixed due to the impacts of earlier hot and dry weather in Brazil, northern Argentina, and South Africa.
Global crop condition map synthesising information for all four AMIS crops as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data from all Crop Monitors. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat conditions are generally favourable with improvement in parts of Europe. Spring wheat sowing is ongoing.
Maize – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is ongoing under mixed conditions in Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. In the northern hemisphere, sowing is progressing under generally favourable conditions.
Rice – Harvesting of the Rabi crop in India is continuing as the sowing of single-season rice begins in China. In Southeast Asia, drier-than-usual conditions continue to impact dry-season rice in the northern countries.
Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is progressing in Brazil and Argentina under mixed conditions. In the northern hemisphere, sowing is beginning under favourable conditions.
Forecasts at a Glance
Climate Influences – The El Niño event has continued to weaken, and neutral ENSO conditions are likely by April to June (85% chance). A quick shift to persistent La Niña conditions is anticipated. The CPC/IRI predicts a 73% chance of La Niña by July to September 2024.
Mexico – In May, below-average precipitation is likely across the southern parts of the country while maximum temperatures are likely to be above average across the central and southern parts of the country.
Southeast Asia – Rainfall has been below-average in the region since January and forecasts indicate that these dry conditions will persist during the next two weeks, combined with above-average temperatures.
United States – During May, above-average precipitation is probable in the central and southern Great Plains at the same time as probable above-average temperatures in the south and northeast of the country.
La Niña Likely to Return with High Global Temperatures
Current Situation/La Niña Forecast:
After a record-setting year for global temperatures, we are approaching the end of a strong El Niño and are likely heading back into La Niña with continuing extremely high global temperatures. El Niño provided much-needed relief for some by improved precipitation after enduring three years of La Niña while it brought heartache to others, particularly in parts of northern South America, Central America, Southern Africa, Southeast Asia, and the northern Maritime Continent due to reduced precipitation.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in the weakening El Niño phase. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center (NOAA CPC) is forecasting a return to ENSO-neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) during the April-June period (Figure 1). The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has already stated a return to ENSO-neutral conditions. However, NOAA has already issued a La Niña Watch. According to NOAA CPC forecasts, La Niña could develop as soon as June to August, with a 60 percent chance. After that, the chances of developing continue to rise with an 80 percent chance or greater beginning during the August to October period. While forecasts made during this time of the year tend to be less accurate than those later in the season, several signs suggest that La Niña is coming.
Figure 1: The official April 2024 NOAA CPC ENSO probability forecast, based on a consensus of CPC and IRI forecasters. Source: International Research Institute
Precipitation Changes Coupled with High Temperatures:
Should La Niña materialize, drier-than-average precipitation is likely in East Africa, Central and South Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Conversely, parts of Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, Central America, and northern South America might experience above-average precipitation.
Extreme high temperatures will also likely be a factor, particularly for those regions at risk of experiencing drier-than-average conditions given heat extremes can worsen drought stress. Last year was the warmest on record since global records began due to the influences of the strong El Niño and climate change. While La Niña events typically bring cooler global temperatures, it is unlikely to significantly change in 2024. This year is already breaking records, with January, February, and March all becoming the warmest respective months on record. The outlook for the rest of the year looks much the same, with a very high chance that 2024 will rank in the top five of warmest years on record.
Potential Crop Impacts:
La Niña events have historically led to slightly lower than average global-level yields for soybeans (up to 2 percent) and slightly higher than average global-level yields for rice (up to 2 percent), while not significantly impacting global-level yields of wheat or maize. How the current potential La Niña event will impact agricultural production is uncertain as no two events are the same. With global temperatures at unseen levels, the negative effects could potentially be exasperated. However, based on historical La Niña events, some crops in some regions will likely experience yield impacts. For wheat, yields tend to be positively impacted in Argentina, southern Brazil, Morocco, Portugal, Australia, China, and India, while negatively impacted in parts of the United States, East Africa, and Central Asia. For maize, yields tend to be positively impacted in parts of Southeastern Africa, China, India, and Thailand, while negatively impacted in Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia, and the US. For rice, yields tend to be slightly positively impacted in China, India, Pakistan, Central Asia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Thailand, southern Brazil, and Central America, while negatively impacted in the Middle East, Bolivia, and the US. For soybeans, yields tend to be positively impacted in Brazil, Southern Africa, India, and China, while negatively impacted in Argentina, Uruguay, and the US. The negative impacts tend to be lessened for irrigated crops than rainfed crops. However, only when the likely La Niña event arrives in combination with likely extremely high global temperatures will its actual impacts on agriculture begin to be known.
Figure 2: Historical crop yield conditions during La Niña events for wheat, maize, rice, soybeans, and sorghum using FAO country-level yield data and ERSSTv5 from 1961-2020. In countries with more than one crop affected, the colour reflects the strongest effect. Note: FAO data is national and annual resolution, which masks expected relationships in areas with multiple crops (e.g. the Horn of Africa).
Wheat Conditions
Wheat crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of April 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Wheat: In the EU, exceptionally warm spring temperatures, coupled with adequate water supply in most parts, have been beneficial for winter wheat conditions. In the UK, overly wet and waterlogged fields continue to impact crops. In Türkiye, conditions are favourable with ample rainfall supporting crops, particularly in the eastern regions. In Ukraine, enough rainfall and warmer-than-average April temperatures continue to support favourable winter wheat conditions, however, the active warzone in the south and east remains a concern for agriculture. In the Russian Federation, conditions remain favourable for winter wheat, albeit with reduced precipitation in the southern Caucasus. Spring wheat sowing is beginning in the Volga region under favourable conditions. In China, winter and spring wheat conditions are favourable. In India, harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In the US, conditions are mostly favourable for winter wheat, except in Kansas where dry conditions are developing in some parts of the state. Spring wheat sowing is beginning under favourable conditions. In Canada, winter wheat conditions are favourable in the east, however, dry conditions remain across the western Prairies due to an autumn drought and low winter precipitation.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Maize Conditions
Maize crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of April 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Maize: In Brazil, harvesting is progressing for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) with significantly reduced yields in the Southeast region due to an earlier lack of rainfall and high temperatures. The summer-planted crop (larger season) is developing under worsening conditions in some areas due to irregular rainfall and high temperatures. In Argentina, harvesting the early-planted crop (larger season) is progressing under mostly favourable conditions, albeit with delays due to recent rains. For the late-planted crop (smaller season), there is growing concern about widespread yield decreases due to corn stunt disease being spread by the corn leafhopper insect. In South Africa, harvesting continues under mixed conditions due to prolonged hot and dry weather during the season. In Mexico, the ongoing drought continues to be a concern for the Autumn-winter season (smaller season). In India, harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions for the Rabi crop. In China, the sowing of spring maize continues under favourable conditions. In the US, conditions are favourable as sowing continues to expand into the Corn Belt region. In the EU, sowing is beginning under favourable and earlier than usual due to warm spring weather. In the Russian Federation, sowing is ongoing into dry soils in the south.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Rice Conditions
Rice crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of April 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Rice: In China, the early-planted crop is in the vegetative stage as the sowing of single-season rice is continuing. In India, harvesting for the Rabi crop continues under generally favourable conditions, except in the southern states due to reduced water availability. In Bangladesh, conditions are favourable as harvesting begins for the Boro crop (largest season) and as sowing continues for the Aus crop (smallest season). In Indonesia, harvesting wet-season rice continues with a significant reduction in the total sown area compared to last season. Dry-season rice sowing is beginning at a higher rate than last season, owing to ample rainfall. In Viet Nam, dry-season rice (winter-spring rice) is under favourable conditions in the north, while in the south, harvesting of dry-season rice (winter-spring rice) is ongoing under mixed conditions due to saltwater intrusion. The sowing of wet-season rice (summer-autumn rice) is beginning in the Mekong Delta. In Thailand, dry-season rice harvesting is progressing under mixed conditions due to earlier hot and dry weather. In the Philippines, dry-season rice is being harvested with reduced yields expected across most of the country due to below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures. In Brazil, harvesting is progressing under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Soybean Conditions
Soybean crop conditions over main growing areas are based upon a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crop condition information is based upon information as of April 28th. Where crops are in other than favourable conditions the climatic drivers responsible for those conditions are displayed.
Soybeans: In Brazil, harvesting is nearing the end under mixed conditions due to a lack of rain and high temperatures during crop development. The Central-West and Southeast regions are the most impacted with yields much below-average, while in the Northeast and North regions, the impact is smaller, and final yields are close to average. In the South region, yields are close to average despite periods experiencing weather extremes during the season. In Argentina, continuous rainfall is delaying the ongoing harvesting of the early-planting crop (typically larger season) and the beginning of the harvest for the late-planted crop (typically smaller season), however, good yields are expected for both crops. In the US, sowing is beginning under favourable conditions and at a quicker pace than average. In China, sowing is beginning under favourable conditions, aided by above-average temperatures.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country's share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slice are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e., spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in non-AMIS countries can be found in the GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning, published April 4th.
Climate Influences: Weakening El Niño and La Niña Watch
The El Niño event has continued to weaken, and neutral ENSO conditions are likely by April to June (85% chance). A quick shift to persistent La Niña conditions is anticipated. The CPC/IRI predicts a 73% chance of La Niña by July to September 2024, and chances remain high throughout the forecast period.
Globally, record-high temperatures in the latter half of 2023 and 2024 reflect the influences of the strong 2023-2024 El Niño and climate change. Heat extremes will very likely continue during 2024. Associated with forecast La Niña conditions and abnormally warm ocean temperatures, the multi-year pattern of climate extremes may continue. The strong and impactful 2023-2024 El Niño was preceded by three years of La Niña and associated multi-year droughts, especially in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, and southern South America.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over parts of the southern Prairies in Canada, central and southern Great Plains of the US, northeastern Mexico, the Dominican Republic, eastern Columbia, southern Chile, central Norway, central Sweden, southern Liberia, southern Côte d'Ivoire, eastern Ethiopia, southern Somalia, Kenya, northeastern Tanzania, northeastern Mozambique, western Yemen, eastern Türkiye, Syria, Iraq, western and central Iran, Kuwait, Afghanistan, western Pakistan, Tajikistan, southern China, western Indonesia, and parts of northern and western Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over Mexico, Cuba, northern Guyana, Brazil, northern Bolivia, Paraguay, northern and central Argentina, Uruguay, eastern Romania, Moldovia, eastern Ukraine, western Russian Federation, eastern Senegal, western Mali, western Guinea, southern Republic of Congo, western Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Angola, southern Namibia, southern Botswana, central and western South Africa, central Tanzania, Kazakhstan, western Uzbekistan, Japan, southwest China, Myanmar, Thailand, northern Laos, Viet Nam, Cambodia, the Philippines, southern Indonesia, and southern Australia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 4 – 17 May 2024, issued on 26 April 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Mexico Outlook
The May forecasts indicate likely above-average precipitation in the northern and eastern regions of the county, while below-average precipitation across the southern portions of the country. During the same time, maximum temperatures are likely to continue to be above-average across the central and southern parts of the country, while below-average across the western parts of the country. During June, the forecasts indicate likely below-average precipitation across the northern and central parts of the country, while above-average precipitation across the southern parts of the country. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the central and eastern parts of the country, while below-average across the western parts of the country.
Upper Left: May precipitation anomaly issued April 2024. Upper Right: May maximum temperature anomaly issued April 2024. Lower Left: June precipitation anomaly issued April 2024. Lower Right: June maximum temperature anomaly issued April 2024. Maps from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN).
Southeast Asia Outlook
Drier and hotter-than-average conditions could pose challenges for the first part of the wet season rice cultivation period in mainland areas of Southeast Asia and in the Philippines. Rainfall has been below-average in these areas since January, and forecasts indicate that these dry conditions will persist during the next two weeks and likely through June (Figure 1 top). Maximum temperatures in April were hot and highly above normal. SubX models forecast that extreme heat (Figure 1 bottom) will also continue into at least May, in Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, and the northern Philippines.
Figure 1. A seasonal rainfall anomaly outlook, a 15-day forecast, a 3-month probabilistic precipitation forecast, and recent and forecast maximum temperatures. Top left: CHC Early Estimates percent of average rainfall outlook for Jan. 11th to Apr. 25th, 2024, based on CHIRPS Final for Jan. 11th to Mar. 31st, CHIRPS Preliminary for Apr. 1st to 10th, and an unbiased CHIRPS-GEFS forecast for Apr. 11th to 25th. Top middle: CHIRPS-GEFS forecast for Apr. 24th to May 7th. Difference from average precipitation, in mm. Top right: WMO probabilistic forecasts for May to June 2024 precipitation, based on models initialized in April, from the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Bottom left: Average daily maximum temperatures for Apr. 1st to 19th, 2024, presented as the difference from the average for this period. Stippling shows locations with temperatures above the 95th percentile. Based on 1991-2020 data from the CHIRTS-ERA5 Tmax product, which uses ECMWF ERA5 operational and CHIRTSmax monthly historical data. Bottom right: Multimodel mean of NMME SubX next 30-day forecast maximum temperature anomalies.
United States Outlook
The May outlook indicates probable above-average precipitation across the central and southern Great Plains towards the Mid-Atlantic region, plus an area over Minnesota. Conversely, below-average precipitation is possible over New Mexico and Florida. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in the southern Great Plains into the Southeast and up into the eastern Midwest and New England.
Upper Left: May 2024 precipitation outlook issued on 30 April 2024. Upper Right: May 2024 temperature outlook issued on 30 April 2024. Maps from NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, and Climate Prediction Center https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/. Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center