Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 103: Published April 3rd, 2025
Conditions as of March 28th
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Overview
In East Africa, there is concern for Belg season cereals in much of Ethiopia and for main season cereals in parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya, and the United Republic of Tanzania due to a poor start to the seasonal rains. In West Africa, land preparation and planting of main season cereals are ramping up along the south, and agro-climatic conditions are favourable as rains received in March are supporting planting and germination. Across the Middle East & North Africa, a poor start to the seasonal rains significantly hindered crop development. Despite recent rainfall improvements, yields are expected to be below-average in parts of Morocco, Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. In Southern Africa, mid-season rainfall improvements have significantly benefitted ongoing crop development, except in southern Angola, northern Malawi, and northern Madagascar where dry concerns remain and parts of Mozambique and southern Madagascar where storm impacts may reduce yields. In Central & South Asia, conditions remain mostly favourable for winter wheat development, except in rainfed areas of eastern Pakistan impacted by drought. Conditions remain favourable for spring wheat planting in Afghanistan. In Southeast Asia, harvesting of wet-season rice continues in the south while development of dry-season rice continues in the north, and conditions are generally favourable except in Brunei where recent heavy rains disrupted harvesting activities. In Central America & the Caribbean, planting for the Primera season will commence in April. In Cuba, recurring blackouts in March may have hampered agricultural activities.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of March 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of i4puts including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: In Ethiopia, there is concern for Belg season cereals due to limited rains received as well as renewed conflict in the north. Across the south, planting and development of main season cereals continues under mixed conditions due to rainfall deficits in parts of Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya, and the United Republic of Tanzania. Below-average rains are expected to continue across eastern areas of the Horn of Africa through June (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6).
WEST AFRICA: Land preparation and planting of main season cereals are ramping up in the south while second season rice harvesting is nearing completion along the Sahel. Agro-climatic conditions remain favourable, and rains are expected to be near to below-average in the south and near to above-average in the Sahel through July.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Generally poor rainfall outcomes at the beginning of the season continue to impact crops in many areas despite some recent rainfall improvements. In Morocco, overall yield prospects are below-average, which would mark the fourth consecutive poor winter cereal harvest.
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is now underway in all regions, and conditions are generally favourable following mid-season enhanced rains that are expected to significantly improve production prospects from the previous year. However, dry concerns remain in southern Angola, northern Malawi, and northern Madagascar, and storm impacts may reduce yields in parts of Mozambique and Madagascar.
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Winter wheat continues to develop under mostly favourable conditions, except in rainfed areas of eastern Pakistan where drought is reducing production prospects. Spring wheat planting is just beginning in Tajikistan with concern due to early season dryness. Most areas are expected to receive below-average rains through early April and into June (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14).
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Harvesting of wet-season rice continues in the south under mostly favourable conditions, except in Brunei where recent heavy rains delayed harvesting. In the north, conditions are favourable for dry-season rice development, and conditions in the Philippines have improved as impacts from recent storms were localized.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Land preparation for the Primera season is ramping up, and forecast wet conditions could improve moisture deficits for planting. Harvesting of Apante season beans finalized in Nicaragua under favourable conditions.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over central and southeast Mexico, Guatemala, eastern Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, northern Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, northwest Brazil, Ecuador, western Peru, north Algeria, Tunisia, northern Libya, central Egypt, eastern Côte d'Ivoire, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, western and northern Cameroon, northeastern Central African Republic, southeastern Kenya, central and southern Tanzania, northeastern Mozambique, central South Africa, eastern Kazakhstan, the eastern Russian Federation, northeast China, eastern Nepal, southwest India, southern Myanmar, Thailand, western Laos, southern Philippines, northern Australia, and northern New Zealand.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over the US southwest and southeast, northwest Mexico, western Cuba, northeast and central Brazil, Bolivia, Chile, northern Paraguay, northern Argentina, the southern UK, northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, central Germany, southern Norway, northern Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, northern Belarus, southern Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, northwest Russian Federation, southwest Mali, Guinea, Sierra Leone, western Liberia, Ethiopia, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, northern Botswana, northern Namibia, northeast South Africa, southern Afghanistan, northeastern Pakistan, northwest India, Central and eastern China, eastern Malaysia, and central Indonesia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 April 2025, issued on 28 March 2025. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: Weakening La Niña with transition to ENSO-neutral conditions likely through October 2025
La Niña conditions were present during late March, and a transition to ENSO-neutral is underway, based on near average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Weak La Niña-like tropical atmospheric anomalies were observed during late March and may continue during April. Neutral ENSO conditions are most likely through October 2025 (81 to 49 percent chances). At the end of 2025, there are similar chances of neutral or La Niña conditions, according to the CPC/IRI.
Global temperatures for February 2025 were the third warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service Climate Bulletin. Forecast above-average temperatures during late March to late April raise the risk of heat stress during maize reproductive development in central Brazil, and may exacerbate impacts of forecast below-average rainfall during that time.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of March 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, main season cereals are now out of season, and planting for the 2025/26 season will begin in May. Harvesting of winter wheat is just beginning in Sudan with ongoing concern regarding the conflict situation. Planting of main season sorghum is just beginning in Yemen with concern due to dry and hot conditions in the main producing west as well as ongoing socio-economic challenges. Furthermore, planting of secondary Belg season maize continues in Ethiopia, and there is concern in some central areas due to inadequate rains received at the beginning of the season in February and despite improvements over the last month. There is also concern in the north where socio-economic challenges regarding renewed conflicts are compounding the dry conditions.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of short rains maize finalized in bimodal regions of eastern and coastal Kenya with below average yields due to poor seasonal rainfall outcomes and high temperatures. Planting and development of main season cereals continues in Rwanda, Burundi, bimodal regions of Uganda, central and bimodal regions of Kenya, and the United Republic of Tanzania.
In these areas of southern East Africa, conditions are mixed as rainfall deficits are impacting planting operations in Rwanda, Burundi, central and western Uganda, Kenya, and the northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania. Conversely, crops in eastern Uganda have recovered from previous dry concerns, and conditions remain favourable in central Kenya and most parts of the United Republic of Tanzania. Rainfall is expected to be near to below-average in eastern areas of the Horn of Africa through June (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6).
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, wheat harvesting is just beginning and will finalize in April, and the conflict situation has significantly disrupted agricultural activities. Many farmers in impacted areas were unable to plant, and of those who did, many are now unable to carry out harvesting activities. In South Sudan, land preparation is underway for first season cereals, and planting will begin in April. An escalation of violent incidents from January is resulting in displacement across Greater Equatoria and Greater Bahr el Ghazal, and a more recent escalation since late February is now affecting populations in Upper Nile State. In Ethiopia, planting of Belg season maize continues with concern in most areas due to early season deficits, except in the southwest and north-centre that experienced rainfall improvements in March (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). Additionally, socio-economic concerns relating to the prior conflict situation continue to disrupt production in the north. Western Tigray is experiencing renewed conflicts following a coup in March, and armed clashes in eastern Belg producing areas of Amhara and Oromia regions are causing localized disruption to cropping activities. The renewed conflicts may affect the delivery of supplies and limit populations from accessing lands and engaging in planting this season. In Yemen, planting of main season sorghum is just beginning with concern for crop emergence due to drier than normal conditions, which are being exacerbated by hot temperatures. Additionally, socio-economic challenges relating to the protracted conflict situation compound the agro-climatic concerns. Throughout the country, about 70 percent of food is imported, and 30 percent is primarily grown on the western coast.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of March 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, land preparation is underway for the Gu season, and planting will begin in April. Forecast drier than normal conditions for the March to May Gu season may be exacerbated by higher than normal temperatures (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). In the Juba and Shabelle river catchments, below-average rains will likely reduce water availability for irrigated agriculture. In the bimodal and minor producing areas of eastern and coastal Kenya, harvesting of short rains maize finalized under poor conditions due to poor rainfall outcomes during the October to December 2024 season that were exacerbated by high temperatures. Additionally, planting of long rains maize is just beginning with concern due to below-average rains received and despite minor improvement during the second dekad of March. In the central region, harvesting of short rains maize finalized under favourable conditions, and planting is just beginning for long rains maize. In the central and western regions, planting of second season rice is just beginning under favourable conditions with adequate irrigation water availability. Throughout the country, heavy rainfall is expected to continue across most areas through early April (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). In bimodal regions of Uganda, planting of first season maize and millet crops continues with concern in most areas due to a poor start to the seasonal rains, except in the east where precipitation improved during March. Most areas have rainfall deficits as of late March that may impact crop establishment, though forecast near to above-average precipitation through early April could allow for recovery and improve vegetation conditions (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). In Rwanda and Burundi, planting of Season B cereals is underway, and there is concern due to antecedent dry conditions as well as recent below-average rains received in March. However, the rains are currently peaking and are likely to be near to above-normal through June (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6). In bimodal areas of the north and northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania, planting and development of Masika season cereals is underway, and planting of Vuli season sorghum is just beginning. Conditions are mostly favourable except along the northern coast where rainfall in March was below-average. Elsewhere in unimodal areas of the country, Msimu season cereals continue to develop under favourable conditions with near to above-normal rains expected through June (See Regional Outlook Pg. 6).
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Above-average rains received across parts of East Africa, but longer term concerns remain for some regions in eastern East Africa
During recent weeks (March 1st to 25th), areas of central and southwestern Ethiopia, eastern Uganda, southeastern South Sudan, western, north-central, and southern Tanzania, southern Somalia and Kenya received above-average rainfall (Figure 1-left). An active Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) led to the intensification of rainfall in mid-March and established the rainy season across most areas of East Africa. The MJO can significantly impact rainfall in the tropics, even during La Niña conditions.
During late March to early April, March 27th CHIRPS-GEFS and several SubC models forecast above-average rainfall across Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, southern South Sudan, and portions of southern Ethiopia and southern Somalia. Below-average rainfall is forecast in central and northeastern Ethiopia. Forecast above-average rains may increase risks of flooding in lowland and riverine areas, especially areas that have recently received heavy rains. In mid-March, downpours heavily impacted ongoing river catchment and corridor development projects in major parts of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. As of March 27, there have been reports of flooding in Kampala, Uganda and a high risk flood warning issued for the Lake Victoria region.
Seasonal forecasts have indicated below-average rainfall in eastern East Africa. At present, there are uncertainties regarding rainfall amounts and distribution during late April through June. With the observed weakening of La Niña conditions, these outlooks may shift in the coming weeks.
Following the dry and hot season in January and February over East Africa, the recent rains have moderated temperatures and improved soil moisture for planting. Rainfall amounts and timely distribution during the March-to-May season are critical in this region for rainfed crop production. Early-to-mid March observations of NDVI indicated poor vegetation conditions, particularly in southern-central Ethiopia and southern Somalia where NDVI remains below-normal. April and May rains are also important in replenishing water resources, especially in Somalia where these have been strained by prolonged dry conditions. According to a report by UNICEF and WASH cluster, many shallow wells and boreholes had nearly dried up in March, and groundwater levels were very low. Water prices were also very high. As a result, in March more than 3 million people faced acute water shortages.
According to the NMME (Figure 1 middle-right), C3S, WMO and ICPAC forecasts, there are elevated chances of below-normal rainfall from April to June in eastern East Africa, with less agreement in the central and western areas. The NMME predicts average rains in central areas of Kenya and Ethiopia. Portions of western and northwestern Kenya, southwestern Ethiopia, northern Uganda and South Sudan may receive above-average rainfall, based on ICPAC’s outlook (Figure 1-right), and NMME, C3S, and WMO multimodel ensembles. Based on these models, temperatures are forecast to be above-average across most areas of East Africa.
During March, Pacific sea surface temperatures reflected a transition towards ENSO-neutral conditions with an 80 percent probability of ENSO-neutral conditions in March-April-May (CPC/IRI). Weak La Niña-like tropical atmospheric anomalies were observed during late March and may continue. Observed weakening of Western V Gradient conditions during March and forecast average to above-average rainfall during early April lessened drought concerns related to a strong negative Western V Gradient. Between early February and late March, observed east Pacific (Niño3.4) sea surface temperatures increased by more than +0.5°C, and because of this, the Western V Gradient weakened more than was expected. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral, but very warm sea surface temperatures to the east of Madagascar appear associated with onshore moisture transport anomalies that flow into Tanzania, and are likely associated with above-normal rains there and in Kenya.
Short-term forecasts of average to above-average rainfall in eastern East Africa may bring some relief after prolonged dryness (Figure 1 middle-left). However, the long-range outlooks for this region are still concerning. Inconsistent rains over croplands may impact yields. The performance of the Gu rains in Somalia is critical following below-average and poorly-distributed October-December 2024 rains, a poor Deyr harvest, and high levels of food insecurity (4.6 million people under IPC 3+) and malnutrition (1.8 million children under 5-years) projected from April-June (Reliefweb).
Figure 1: Recent rainfall anomalies and sub-seasonal and seasonal rainfall forecasts.
Left: Percent of average rainfall for March 1st to March 25th, 2025. Based on the 1981-2024 CHIRPS average. From CHC Early Estimates. Middle-left: A 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast from March 27th, 2025 with values indicating how the forecast compares to the CHIRPS average for this period. Middle-right: Probabilistic forecast for April 2025 to June 2025 precipitation tercile, based on March initial conditions. Probabilities are derived from forecasts from seven North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models. Colors indicate the forecast probability of each category, based on 124 ensemble members from 7 models and a 1991-2020 baseline. White indicates a high level of disagreement amongst forecasts. Right: April 2025 to June 2025 seasonal rainfall outlook from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
In southern West Africa, land preparation and planting of main season cereals are just beginning in Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, planting of second season cereals is just beginning in southern Cameroon. Along the Sahel, harvesting of second season rice is nearing completion in Mauritania and Mali. Throughout West Africa, conditions are generally favourable, except in areas impacted by persisting conflict, including central Mali, the Southwest region in Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Southern areas received rains during the first two dekads of March, and NMME weather forecasts through July indicate average to below-average rainfall along coastal areas of the Gulf of Guinea and average to above-average amounts over the Sahelian strip.
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of March 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Middle East & North Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of March 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across the Middle East and North Africa, winter wheat continues to develop under mixed conditions. Despite some rainfall improvements in February and March, generally dry conditions throughout the season are expected to result in below-average production across Morocco, northwestern Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, and northeastern Iran and continue to cause concern in most of Algeria, northeastern Libya, northern Iraq, and central and southern Iran. Conversely, overly wet conditions received since December could impact yield outcomes in northwestern Libya. Elsewhere, near-average yields are expected.
Across North Africa, a combination of delayed rains and plantings as well as poor precipitation outcomes are expected to result in below-average cereal production for 2025. In Morocco, rainfall improved during March, particularly in the north (Gharb and Tanger Tetouan), which helped to partially refill some reservoirs. However, crop biomass remains poor across most areas, particularly in the centre and south (Souss, Marrakech, Tadla Azilal, Rabat, Chaouia, and Doukkala-Abda) and the north-east (Oriental). Only localized areas of Tanger Tetouan, western Taza, and central Meknes have near-average biomass as they likely benefitted from irrigation. Wheat yields are expected to be 27 percent below average at the national scale, and production prospects are below-average, which would mark the fourth consecutive season with below-average wheat and barley harvests. While near-average rains are expected for main cropping areas in April, it is likely too late for winter cereals to recover from early drought. In Algeria, the government announced plans at the beginning of this season to expand cereal cropland and provide subsidized seeds and fertilizers to enhance local production and improve yield prospects. However, generally below-average precipitation amounts since the beginning of the cropping season are expected to reduce yields and production outcomes. A very dry start of the season with record low rainfall in the west was followed by enhanced rainfall in January that improved crop conditions in some key producing areas. However, a dry spell in February worsened yield prospects, resulting in mixed biomass conditions. Concern remains in most areas, including in the northwest (from Tlemcen to Chlef, Relizane, and western Tiaret), north-centre (Bordj Bou Arrer), and southeast (Tebessa and Khenchela). Conversely, biomass is above-average in parts of the centre (Tissemlit and eastern Tiaret) and northeast (Guelma, Skikda, and El Tarf). In Tunisia, above-average cumulative precipitation received from November 2024 to January 2025 in the main producing areas of the north (Beja, Bizert, Jendouba, and Le Kef) is expected to result in favourable yield outcomes. Rainfall has been below-average since February but is expected to improve in April. Overall wheat yields are expected to be 13 percent above average at the national scale. In Libya, heavy rains in December 2024 and January 2025 hampered yield prospects, especially in the main producing northwestern region, and were followed by a severe locust infestation in early 2025. Conversely, dry conditions remain a concern in the northeast. Additionally, the country continues to contend with localized conflicts that disrupt agricultural activities and inhibit field access. In Egypt, growing conditions remain favourable as crops are primarily irrigated.
In the Middle East, generally low precipitation outcomes and soil moisture levels this season are likely to result in yield declines across Lebanon, Syria, northern Iraq, and most of Iran. Despite potential rainfall improvements in April for Syria and Iraq, it will likely be too late for crop recovery in areas that experienced a poor start to the season. Additionally, ongoing conflict continues to negatively influence yield outcomes in Lebanon and Syria, including limited access to agricultural inputs and fields. In Syria, rainfall outcomes have been very poor since the start of the season, with the exception of minor producing western coastal areas (Lattakia and Tartous), and reached record low levels since December in the northwest (Idleb and Aleppo). As a result, winter biomass is low in most areas, and despite potential rainfall improvements in April, yields are expected to be below-average. Additionally, despite a recent de-escalation of conflict in 2024, renewed violence resulted in displacement in Lattakia and Tartous. In Iraq, dry spells at the beginning of the season delayed planting activities, and rainfall outcomes have been low across most areas since December, with half the normal amounts received in the north. Overall conditions are mixed, with dry concerns remaining in the north (Ninewa, Dahuk, and parts of Erbil). Conversely, conditions remain favourable in the centre east (Sulaymaniyah, Diyala) and south, likely due to irrigation. Despite potential rainfall improvements in April, crops in the north are unlikely to recover from a poor start to the season. In Iran, drier than average conditions have prevailed since late December. Overall winter cereal biomass is below-average across most regions, with the exception of the main wheat producing province of Khuzestan as well as in other provinces in the west (East and West Azerbayejan, Kordestan, and Kermanshah). In Khuzestan, irrigation use likely compensated for the lowest November to March rainfall received since 2001/02. In Fars and Kermanshah, good rains received in early March benefitted crops. However, there is a risk of yellow rust disease spreading in wheat and barley fields in Fars province. Furthermore, in the coastal north (Mazandaran and Gilan), land preparation is underway for rice planting, which will begin in April and May.
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing maize conditions as of March 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Southern Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is now underway in all regions, including Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho, and Eswatini. Conditions are generally favourable, and crops in eastern Angola have recovered from prior dry concerns. However, dry conditions remain a concern in southern Angola, northern Malawi, and northern Madagascar, and recent storm impacts could influence final yields in central and northeastern Mozambiqueand southern Madagascar. Cumulative rainfall outcomes from October 2024 to March 2025 were varied, and while dry conditions at the beginning of the season delayed plantings and early growth, significant improvements in January and February benefited previously dry areas in eastern Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, and Mozambique. However, flash flooding from late February to late March impacted parts of eastern Angola, northeastern Zambia, eastern South Africa, and central Madagascar. The rains also contributed to the proliferation of pests, including African Armyworm, Fall Armyworm, and locusts in Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Madagascar, South Africa, and Eswatini. The mid-season enhanced rains are expected to significantly improve overall crop production prospects from the previous year, and 2025 cereal production is expected to be near-average. Additionally, water levels of the Kariba dam remain critically low despite recent marginal improvements, which continues to disrupt power supply and irrigation availability in Zambia and Zimbabwe (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12).
In Angola, overall rainfall performance has been erratic this season but generally adequate for ongoing crop development, and conditions in the east have improved from recent dry concerns. However, previously uneven distribution in the south may impact final production, and seasonal totals remain below average in this area (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). In Zimbabwe, dry conditions at the start of the season resulted in reduced maize plantings and a subsequent shift to sorghum and millet plantings, which are less sensitive to water deficits. In Malawi, dry concerns remain in the north despite rainfall improvements in March, and the impacts from Cyclone Jude could negatively impact yields in the south. In Mozambique, weather outcomes have been generally adequate this season, with the exception of Cyclone Jude which impacted Nampula province located in the northeast on March 10 (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). Additionally, ongoing conflict in Cabo Delgado province located in the northeast continues to disrupt input and field access. In Madagascar, dry conditions at the start of the season, particularly in the north and east, were compounded by high temperatures and resulted in delayed planting activities. Conversely, several tropical cyclones impacted the country during the 2024–25 Southwest Indian Ocean cyclone season, particularly in the south. Notable storms include Cyclone Chido, which affected northern areas in mid-December, Cyclone Dikeledi, which made landfall near Antsiranana in the north on January 11, Cyclone Honde, which impacted Andrefana and Menabe in the west and southwest in late February and early March, and Cyclone Jude, which made landfall as a Severe Tropical Storm in mid-March and affected Menabe, Atsimo Andrefana, and Androy regions in the west and south. In South Africa, widespread above-normal rainfall since early February supported summer crop development and improved yield prospects. Despite last month’s concerns regarding potential yield declines in North West, Guateng, Free State, and Mpumalanga provinces, conditions have been upgraded to favourable as overall maize yields are now expected to be near-average. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of main season sorghum and second season maize is now underway, and agro-climatic conditions remain favourable. However, since January, an escalation of conflict in Kivu region located in the central-east is expected to negatively influence production outcomes, particularly for second season maize, as well as domestic trade with other regions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Below-average rains to continue in some rainfall deficit areas of Madagascar
In recent weeks (26th February to 25th March), rainfall was below average across Zimbabwe, southern and central Zambia, Botswana, central and northern Madagascar, northeastern South Africa, southern Mozambique, and in portions of western and southeastern Angola, central Malawi, and eastern DRC (Figure 1-left). In some of the central-northern regions with rainfall deficits, maximum temperatures were above average in March.
Ongoing dry conditions are particularly concerning in northwestern Madagascar, where rainfall totals from October 1st, 2024, to March 25th, 2025, are the lowest on record. In Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique, forecast below-average rains will prolong the drier-than-average conditions. This could negatively impact late-planted crops still in reproductive stages.
Rains were recently above average in western South Africa, Namibia, northern Malawi, northern and central Mozambique and southern Madagascar. Between March 10th and 16th, Tropical Cyclone Jude traversed parts of Southern Africa and caused widespread damage and fatalities. Jude made landfall as a Category 1 cyclone on March 10th in the northeast district of Nampula, Mozambique, and brought heavy rains and coastal flooding. The storm also impacted Malawi before tracking southeast back into the Mozambique Channel, where it made a second landfall in Ampanihy West, southern Madagascar (Reliefweb). Areas of Malawi, Mozambique, and Madagascar are still recovering from the impacts of earlier storms this season.
Seasonal totals are below average in many northern areas, due to persistent average to below-average conditions during recent months. The Southern Africa rainfall season generally started poorly with many areas receiving below-average rainfall during October to December 2024. Central areas of the region saw improved conditions since late December 2024, and portions of southwestern Zimbabwe, eastern Botswana and northeastern South Africa received 150 to 200 percent of average rainfall during October 1st to March 25th (Figure 1 middle-left).
Rains will start to taper off after March in some central areas– including in Zimbabwe and southern Mozambique. Below-average late March to early April rains are forecast by the March 27th unbiased GEFS (Figure 1 middle-right) and the ECMWF in central areas. During April to June, there are elevated chances of below-normal rains in many central areas, according to NMME (Figure 1-right) WMO, and C3S multi-model ensemble forecasts. Hotter-than-normal temperatures are likely across most areas in April to June, especially in Madagascar. In South Africa and in western and northern areas, above-average rainfall is forecast into early April.
If forecasts materialize, below-average rains in the Zambezi basin will likely impact water levels and power production in Lake Kariba and the Cahora Bassa hydro plant. Lake Kariba water levels continue to be very low due to impacts from the 2024 drought and despite slight improvements in the recent weeks. As of March 27th, the reservoir was only at 9.2 percent of capacity.
Figure 1. A recent precipitation anomaly, a seasonal precipitation anomaly, a 15-day forecast for precipitation and a 3-month NMME rainfall forecast.
Left and middle-left: Both panels are CHC Early Estimates, which compare current precipitation totals to the 1981/82-2023/24 CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. These show the precipitation anomaly (difference from average; [mm]) for February 26th to March 25th, 2025 (left), and for October 1st, 2024, to March 25th, 2025 (middle-left). Both use CHIRPS Prelim for March 1st to 25th. Middle-right: A 15-day CHIRPS-GEFS (unbiased GEFS) forecast from March 27th, 2025 with values indicating how the forecast compares to the CHIRPS average for this period. Right: Probabilistic forecast for April to June 2025 precipitation tercile (March initial conditions), derived from forecasts from seven North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models. Colors indicate the probability of each category, based on 124 ensemble members and a 1991-2020 baseline. White indicates a high level of disagreement amongst forecasts.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of March 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central and South Asia, Rabi wheat harvesting is just beginning in Pakistan, while winter wheat crops continue to develop in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. Conditions remain mostly favourable, except in the Punjab region of eastern Pakistan, where rainfed crops in the barani areas are being impacted by drought. Additionally, spring wheat planting continues in parts of Afghanistan under favourable conditions and is just beginning in Tajikistan with concern due to early season dry conditions, as crops are primarily rainfed. Dry conditions are forecast to continue through early April in most areas, except in western Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, and may extend through June (See Reginal Outlook Pg. 14).
In Afghanistan, a slow start to the seasonal rains was followed by average rainfall amounts from January to mid-February that benefitted soil moisture reserves for both irrigated and rainfed winter wheat crops, except in some northern producing regions where minor deficits remained. Additionally, rainfall received in February and through the end of March benefited soil moisture conditions for spring wheat planting, which is primarily rainfed. Planting began in March and is expected to extend through late March to April, depending on elevation and climate. Cumulative totals from October 2024 through March 2025 remain below-average in many areas. However, the overall timing and distribution of seasonal rainfall were sufficient for both winter and spring wheat planting and development, and wheat crops are now mostly in the flowering to grain-filling stages. Additionally, while snow water equivalent levels are low, they are near last year’s level and currently adequate to support spring irrigation activities (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14). In Pakistan, below-average rainfall amounts and warmer than normal temperatures received from September 2024 to March 2025 continue to cause concern in the barani area of northern Punjab, which is rainfed and accounts for about 20 percent of total wheat sowings. The government issued a drought alert on March 24 for Sindh, southern parts of Balochistan, and lower eastern plain areas of Punjab due to the dry conditions and subsequent low reservoir levels. Conversely, vegetation conditions remain generally favourable in irrigated areas, except in localized parts of the north where there is a shortage of irrigation water. Overall, wheat production has been downgraded from 30 million to 27.9 million due to the drought. While this production estimate remains slightly above-average, additional rains through April will be needed to replenish reservoirs and provide adequate water for remaining wheat crop development as well as the start of planting for main season maize and rice (Kharif/summer season) crops, which will begin in April.
Regional Outlook: Elevated chances of below-average Spring rains across parts of the region
Precipitation was below average across southern Asia during recent weeks, from February 26th to March 25th, 2025 (Figure 1-left). Periodic above-average precipitation increased snow and soil moisture, but precipitation totals were 10 mm to 50 mm below average for late February to late March, based on preliminary estimates. Thus far, the timing and distribution of precipitation has been sufficient to support agriculture.
Cumulative seasonal precipitation from October 2024 will likely remain below average into early April in most southern areas, based on observed drier-than-average conditions and a 16-day unbiased GEFS forecast from March 26th (Figure 1 middle-left). Average to below-average precipitation is forecast during March 26th to April 10th across southern areas, with the exception of above-average precipitation in portions of eastern Afghanistan. Across central Kazakhstan, forecast average precipitation will continue the above-average seasonal totals.
Snow water equivalent amounts in and near Afghanistan remain below average and are similar to amounts seen last year at this time of the season (Figure 1 middle-right). There will likely be early snow-free conditions in 2025 in that southern area, and 2024-2025 will be the 6th year in a row of below-average snow water amounts, unless this season substantially improves. Based on seasonal forecasts, improvement seems unlikely.
Seasonal forecasts indicate a drier and warmer-than-normal Spring 2025. In most of central and southern Asia, there are 40 to higher-than 50 percent chances of below-normal April to June precipitation, according to NMME (Figure 1-right), C3S, and WMO multi-model ensemble forecasts from early March.
Associated with these forecasts and recent dry conditions, there is ongoing concern that moisture constraints could negatively impact rainfed agriculture. Dry spells are particularly hazardous during critical stages of rainfed wheat growth (flowering and grain filling), which typically occurs during April to May in Afghanistan. Below-average rainfall would have negative implications for groundwater recharge and lead to higher extraction rates.
Drier-than-average conditions will likely persist in the region into summer, including in Kazakhstan, based on the June to August NMME forecast. These forecasted conditions could impact wheat and other crops and significantly reduce yields.
Figure 1. Recent precipitation anomalies, a seasonal precipitation outlook, regional snow water equivalent, and a 3-month probabilistic precipitation forecast
Left and middle-left: These are CHC Early Estimates, which compares recent precipitation totals to the historical CHIRPS average, for respective accumulation periods. The left panel shows the difference from average for February 26th to March 25th, 2025, using CHIRPS preliminary data for March and a 1981/82-2023/24 average. The middle-panel shows the percent of average precipitation for October 1st 2024 to April 10th, 2025, using March 1st - 25th preliminary data and a 16-day CHIRPS-GEFS forecast from March 26th. Middle-right: Variations in regional Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) (mm) for a region surrounding Afghanistan. The dotted line indicates average SWE (2002-2024 period), the blue line shows SWE for Oct. 2023 - Sep. 2024, and the red line shows SWE for Oct. 2024 to April 2nd, 2025. From NASA, using SWE estimates from the FLDAS Central Asia model. Right: Probabilistic forecast for April to June 2025 precipitation tercile (March initial conditions), derived from forecasts from seven North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models. Colors indicate the probability of each category, based on 124 ensemble members and a 1991-2020 baseline. White indicates a high level of disagreement amongst forecasts.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of March 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, harvesting of wet-season rice continues under mostly favourable conditions. While heavy rains affected some areas this season, the overall impact on rice growth is minor. However, concern remains in Brunei where recent heavy rains delayed harvesting activities. Total production is expected to increase compared to last year due to favourable weather outcomes. In northern Southeast Asia, dry-season rice is mainly in the growing to early harvesting stage. The remaining planting work is progressing smoothly, and the total planted area is expected to be generally the same as the previous year. Overall conditions are favourable due to adequate irrigation water preparation, and conditions in the Philippines have improved as impacts from recent heavy rains and storms were relatively localized. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh, overall conditions are favourable, and conditions in northeastern Sri Lanka have been upgraded to favourable as the impacts of prior flooding were localized.
In Indonesia, March is the final month of wet-season rice planting. The total planted area is 6.6 million hectares, which is a 15.3 percent increase compared to the last rainy season. Average to above-average rains received during the November to March rainy season supported crop development. Heavy rains in December and January resulted in localized crop damage in parts of the east, northeast, and centre due to flooding and landslides, but the rains generally promoted rice planting work. Overall conditions are favourable for crops in the early vegetative and generative stages due to sufficient irrigation water supply, especially in the north. Additionally, harvesting of wet-season rice has reached 3 million hectares, which is 59.1 percent higher than the previous wet season and progressing much faster. Total production is also expected to increase compared to last year, and favourable yield is attributed to sufficient sunlight during the growing period. In Malaysia, conditions are favourable for wet-season rice with normal rainfall received, and approximately 55 percent of the cultivated areas have been harvested as of March. Land preparation and planting of dry-season rice are now underway, and planted crops are in the seedling stage. In Brunei, about 90 percent of the irrigated areas for wet-season rice have been harvested, and about 50 percent of rainfed areas have been harvested. Concern remains for potential yield declines as high rainfall amounts delayed harvesting activities. Land and seeding preparations are underway for dry-season rice, and the recent heavy rainfall may provide adequate water for wet tillage in the irrigated areas. In the Philippines, dry-season rice planted from November to December 2024 is now in the maturing to harvesting stage. Across the Central Philippines region, the shearline and northeast monsoon brought continuous heavy rainfall and resultant flooding, affecting around 8.3 thousand hectares of paddy
fields with an estimated volume loss of 19.7 thousand metric tons. However, growing conditions remain generally favourable as the impacts were relatively localized.
In Thailand, dry-season rice is currently in the grain filling and harvesting stages under favourable conditions. The accumulated planted area has reached 1.9 million hectares accounting for 94 percent of the national plan. In March, brown planthopper infestations were reported in some localized areas of the North and Central regions. However, overall production is expected to increase compared to the previous year due to adequate crop growth and water supply. In northern Viet Nam, winter-spring (dry-season) rice is in the sowing and early growing stages. The total sown area is 1.05 million hectares, and growing conditions are favourable due to adequate irrigation preparation. In the south, harvesting of winter-spring (dry-season) rice is now underway, reaching 0.4 million hectares out of 1.9 million hectares planted. The yield of harvested rice is 7.1 tons per hectare, which is equivalent to the previous year. In Laos, planting of dry-season rice is mostly complete in all areas. Planted area reached 85 thousand hectares and 91 percent of the national plan, representing a slight decrease compared to the national plan due to farmers switching to high cash crops. Crops are in the young panicle forming to grain filling stage, and growing conditions are generally favourable with adequate irrigation water. Considerable rains received in the first half of March also benefitted crop growth. In Myanmar, planting of dry-season rice reached 960 thousand hectares accounting for 82 percent of the national plan, and progress is similar to last year. Planting activities are expected to continue through April due to adequate irrigation water availability and conducive weather conditions. Crops are mostly in the panicle forming stage under favourable conditions. Additionally, harvesting of earlier planted crops has commenced in the Delta region. About 34 thousand hectares have been harvested with a yield of 3.95 tons per hectare, which is slightly lower than last year. On March 28, a very strong 7.7 magnitude earthquake struck the centre of the country, causing widespread and significant damage. Immediate rescue efforts are being prioritized, and impacts to agriculture are to be determined. In Cambodia, planting of dry-season rice is now complete with a total area of 907 thousand hectares, representing an 8 percent increase compared to last year. Growing conditions are generally favourable, and yield is estimated to be 4.6 tons per hectare, which is slightly better than last year. Crops will be harvested from March to April, and final production is expected to increase.
In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Maha season rice (65 percent of annual rice output) and Maha season maize (90 percent of annual maize output) finalized in March under favourable conditions. The impacts of Storm Fengal in late 2024, followed by a continuation of above-average rainfall through February and subsequent flooding and pest and disease outbreaks were limited, and only Ampara and Trimcomallee, Mannar, Mullativu, and Jaffna districts located in the north and northeast of the country are expected to have below-average production. In Nepal, winter wheat harvesting is just beginning while planting of main season maize and second season rice is underway, and overall conditions remain favourable. In Bangladesh, harvesting of winter/Rabi season maize and winter wheat continues under favourable conditions and will finalize in April. Additionally, Boro season rice (55 percent of annual rice production) is in the vegetative to reproductive stage, while planting of summer/Kharif season maize (15 percent of annual maize production) and Aus season rice (10 percent of annual rice production) is just beginning. Agro-climatic conditions remain favourable for ongoing cropping activities.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing Beans 3 (Apante) conditions as of March 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, land preparation for the Primera season is ramping up, and planting will begin in April. In Honduras, harvesting of second season rice continues under favourable conditions. In Nicaragua, harvesting of Apante season bean crops (35 percent of annual bean production) finalized in March with near-average yields expected.
In Haiti, harvesting of second season rice and Hiver season bean crops finalized in March under favourable conditions despite heavy rains and flooding received at the beginning of the season. Planting of Printemps season cereals is just beginning under favourable conditions. While rainfall is below-average in some central and southern parts of the country, irrigation is being used for the first stage of crop development. In Cuba, harvesting of second season maize is just beginning while second season rice crops (1/3 of annual rice production) are in the vegetative to reproductive stage. While agro-climatic conditions remain favourable, recurring blackouts in March may have hampered agricultural activities.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published March 6th, 2025.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.