Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 100: Published December 5th, 2024
Conditions as of November 28th
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Overview
In northern East Africa, conditions are mixed for main season cereals as heavy rains and flooding contributed to poor yields in some areas, though the rains were generally conducive for Meher season crops in Ethiopia. In the south, delayed and below-average rains continue to impact second season cereals in most areas. In West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in all regions, and while yields are expected to be favourable in regions not impacted by active insecurity, mixed rainfall outcomes this season could result in production declines in some areas. In the Middle East & North Africa, planting of winter wheat continues under mixed conditions due to early season dryness that is forecast to continue through February. In Southern Africa, wheat harvesting is nearing completion under mostly favourable to exceptional conditions, except in Zambia where low reservoir levels prevented adequate irrigation use. Planting for the 2024/25 main season is underway, and conditions are generally favourable despite rainfall delays in some areas. In Central & South Asia, planting and development of winter wheat continues under mostly favourable conditions except in parts of Afghanistan. Drier than normal conditions are forecast to continue through the beginning of 2025. In Southeast Asia, conditions are generally favourable for dry-season rice harvesting in the south and wet-season rice harvesting in the north, except in parts of the Philippines where the passage of multiple cyclones of varying strengths is expected to reduce yields. In Central America & the Caribbean, there is concern for Segunda/Postrera season crop development in several areas due to erratic rains, hot temperatures, and recent impacts from Tropical Storm Sara. Conversely, growing conditions are mostly favourable in eastern Nicaragua.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals continues in the north under mixed conditions as heavy rains and flooding contributed to poor yields in parts of Yemen, Sudan, and South Sudan. In Ethiopia, the rains have been generally conducive for Meher cereals. In the south, there is concern in most areas due to delayed and below-average rains, particularly in northeastern Kenya and Somalia, and little to no recovery is likely with below-average rains forecast to continue through early 2025 (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
WEST AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is nearing completion in most regions. Despite some rainfall deficits in the south and overly wet conditions and flooding along the Sahel this season, yield outcomes are expected to be generally favourable in areas not affected by conflict, except in northern Ghana where poor outcomes are expected.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Planting of winter wheat is underway in all regions, and concern remains for rainfed crops in many areas due to ongoing early season dryness, except in parts of Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Iran where biomass is near-average. Forecast dry and hot conditions through early 2024 could negatively impact planted area and crop establishment (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10).
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Wheat harvesting is nearing completion with near to above-average yields expected, except in central and southern Zambia. While planting conditions are mostly favourable for the start of the 2024/25 main season, a combination of low reservoir levels, limited input and draught power access, delayed rains, and uncertainty in the rainfall forecast could negatively influence harvest outcomes (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12).
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Planting and development of 2024/25 winter wheat crops continues. Recent dry conditions are causing concern in parts of Afghanistan, and below-normal winter and spring precipitation is anticipated for the region (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14). Elsewhere, conditions remain favourable.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: In the south, conditions are mostly favourable for dry-season rice harvesting and wet-season rice planting, except in Malaysia where overly wet conditions are hampering planting progress. In the north, multiple cyclones of varying strengths are expected to result in wet-season yield reductions in the Philippines. Elsewhere, yield impacts of the storms were limited, and favourable outcomes are expected.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: There is concern for Segunda/Postrera season crop development in parts of Guatemala, Honduras, western Nicaragua, and El Salvador due to a combination of erratic rainfall outcomes, hot temperatures, and impacts from Tropical Storm Sara. In Haiti, harvesting of Été season crops finalized under favourable conditions.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over northwest Canada, southeast Mexico, Belize, northern Guatemala, Honduras, northern Nicaragua, southern Peru, southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, northeast and southcentral Argentina, southern France, northern Spain, central Italy, western Angola, central Tanzania, east coast of Madagascar, eastern China, southern Viet Nam, southern Thailand, western Malaysia, southern and eastern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and northern and eastern Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over eastern and central Canada, the western and central US, western Mexico, Haiti, northern and central Columbia, western Venezuela, Ecuador, northwest Peru, Suriname, northern French Guiana, northern to southeast Brazil, southwest Bolivia, northern and southern Chile, eastern Argentina, western Uruguay, Portugal, western Spain, central Norway, western Sweden, eastern Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, eastern Ukraine, the eastern and western Russia Federation, western Morocco, southern Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Côte d'Ivoire, southern Ghana, southern Togo, southern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, southern Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, northern Gabon, Republic of the Congo, northern Democratic Republic of the Congo, southern South Sudan, Uganda, southern and central Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, southeast Angola, southern Zambia, northeastern Namibia, northern Botswana, northern Zimbabwe, western Mozambique, central South Africa, western Madagascar, central Saudi Arabia, southern Iraq, Iran, eastern Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, Mongolia, northwest and northeast China, the Democratic Republic of Korea, the Republic of Korea, southern Japan, western Indonesia, and southwest Australia.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7 - 20 December 2024, issued on 29 November 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: Weak La Niña is forecast during December 2024 to February 2025
La Niña conditions will likely develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 72 percent chance of La Niña during December 2024 to February 2025. If La Niña does develop, it will likely be a weak (0.5-1.0C) and short-lived event, likely returning to ENSO-neutral conditions by March 2025. However, forecast very warm western Pacific Ocean conditions would strengthen temperature gradients, which could potentially enhance or prolong La Niña’s impacts.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America.
Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index values were negative during October and November, and have since returned to a neutral state. The negative IOD conditions led to a very poor rainfall season in Somalia, with implications for crop failure and degraded pasture conditions.
Global temperatures for January to October 2024 were the warmest on record with 2024 almost certainly becoming the warmest year on record.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals finalized in Yemen and is nearing completion in Eritrea, Ethiopia (Meher season), South Sudan, and Sudan. Conditions are mixed as heavy rains and flooding this season contributed to poor yield outcomes in western Yemen and Sudan, and record levels and very high overflows of Lake Victoria combined with seasonal rains resulted in widespread multi-year flooding and poor crop conditions in unimodal regions of South Sudan. Additionally, persistent insecurity continues to negatively influence agricultural outcomes throughout Sudan and Yemen, and the prior conflict situation in northern Ethiopia continues to cause socio-economic challenges for production. Conversely, agro-climatic conditions are generally favourable for Meher season cereals throughout Ethiopia with near to above-normal rains received in recent months, except in the southeast where Meher crops are not grown.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion under favourable conditions in unimodal areas in the western half of Kenya and the Karamoja region in northeastern Uganda. Additionally, planting and development of second season cereals is underway in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, bimodal north and northern coastal areas of the United Republic of Tanzania, bimodal areas in the eastern half of Kenya, and Somalia. There is concern in most areas due to delayed and below-average rains at the beginning of the season, except in northwest and eastern Uganda and northwestern Somalia where conditions are favourable.
For the December 2024 to February 2025 period, drier than normal conditions are expected in Rwanda, northern United Republic of Tanzania, southern Uganda, much of Kenya, and southwest and northeastern Ethiopia. Additionally, La Niña is likely to exacerbate drought conditions in Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, harvesting of main season millet and sorghum crops is underway, and poor yield outcomes are expected due to a combination of ongoing insecurity as well as well above-average rains and subsequent flooding this season. Conflict that erupted in March 2023 gradually expanded into the key-producing southeastern areas by late 2023, resulting in displacement and limited field access. In areas that were able to produce, high prices of agricultural inputs constrained yields. There is currently relative stability around the government-controlled Port Sudan area located in the east, though the area under cultivation is not certain. Additionally, heavy June to September seasonal rains resulted in widespread flooding with significant crop losses this season. While the rains were generally conducive to vegetation health in areas that were able to plant and that were not impacted by the flooding, overall production is expected to be well below-average, primarily due to the conflict implications. Additionally, wheat planting is just beginning under watch conditions due to the conflict situation. In South Sudan, harvesting of first season cereals is underway in unimodal regions of the centre and north. Overall seasonal rainfall conditions were close to average, except for wetter than usual conditions in south Jonglei state located in the centre-east as well as in the bimodal regions of Central Equatoria and East Equatoria located in the centre-south. This season, wetter than normal conditions in July were followed by moderately drier conditions in August and September. Since 2020, the country has been affected by widespread flooding in the centre along the Sudd wetlands. The flooding has become a multi-year event that is driven by record levels and very high overflows from Lake Victoria that were exacerbated by seasonal rains. Unity, Warrap, Lakes, and Jonglei states are the most severely affected, and the flooding has resulted in displacement and loss of crops and livestock. In bimodal regions of the centre-south and southwest, second season maize and sorghum crops continue to develop under favourable conditions. In Ethiopia, harvesting of Meher season cereals continues, and rainfall outcomes this season have been generally conducive to cropping activities despite some localized flooding. Above-average rains received in main Meher-producing areas in the west of the country benefited yields, including in western Amhara, western Oromiya, and Benishangul Gumuz regions. However, localized production shortfalls are expected in areas of the southwest impacted by floods this season, and watch conditions remain in parts of the north impacted by socio-economic challenges relating to lingering insecurity. In Eritrea, good rains received during the June to September Kirempti rains is expected to benefit yields and production outcomes this season. In Yemen, harvesting of main season sorghum finalized in October under poor conditions due to a combination of ongoing conflict and overly wet conditions. This year, mixed rainfall outcomes and high input costs constrained planting activities. Low precipitation during May and June was followed by a shift to prolonged and heavy rainfall during the July to September Kharif rainy season, resulting in severe flooding and damage to agriculture and livestock sectors. However, the abundant rains also improved irrigation water supply and fodder availability for livestock production.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, significantly delayed and well below-average rains continue to disrupt the development of Deyr season maize and sorghum crops, and no recovery is likely. Vegetation conditions are substantially below-average, and drought conditions are emerging in the centre and south, raising concern for consecutive poor rainfall seasons. In addition, the onset of the December to March Jilal dry season is forecast to be hotter than normal, raising further concerns for livestock pasture and water resources during early 2025 (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In unimodal and major producing areas in the western half of Kenya, harvesting of long rains cereals is complete or nearing completion under favourable conditions as average to above-average rainfall benefitted yields. In bimodal and minor producing areas in the eastern half of the country, planting of short rains maize is underway with ongoing concern due to delayed and below-average rains. A slow start to the October to December Short Rains was followed by enhanced precipitation in November after most areas were already planted. Some farmers may still replant, but forecast dry conditions through February 2025 may not be conducive for crop germination and establishment. La Niña events typically lead to drier than normal conditions in some parts of the country, particularly in the east and southeast, which can lead to drought and impact agricultural outcomes (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In the unimodal Karamoja region of northeastern Uganda, harvesting of first season maize finalized under favourable conditions. However, production may be slightly reduced due to erratic temporal rainfall distribution this season. In bimodal regions, second season maize continues to develop for harvest from December, and there is some concern in the centre and west where there was a slow start to the September to November rains and where conditions are comparatively drier. In Rwanda and Burundi, planting and development of Season A maize crops continues for harvest from January, and there is ongoing concern as a delayed onset of the September to December Short Rains negatively impacted early planting and germination. A shift to above-average precipitation from mid-September in Burundi and from October in Rwanda helped to improved deficits and vegetation conditions. However, early season rainfall deficits are still a concern, and forecast below-average precipitation through the end of the year is likely to negatively impact yields (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In bimodal areas of the north and northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania, Vuli season maize is in vegetative to reproductive stage, and there is some concern as delayed seasonal rains have resulted in some dry areas, particularly along the coast. Elsewhere in unimodal areas of the country, planting of Msimu season cereals is just beginning under watch conditions due to early season dryness.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Below-average OND rainfall is forecast to continue through January 2025, resulting in drought in the Eastern Horn
Drought is highly likely in central and southern Somalia, which has received extremely below-average rains during the Deyr “short rains” season. Affected areas will likely have less than 30% to 45% of average rainfall amounts from October 1st to December 10th, based on preliminary data and a 15-day forecast (Figure 1-left). Observed vegetation conditions are substantially below-average across most parts of Somalia according to NDVI for Nov 21st-30th indicating degraded pasture grounds and poor rainfed crop performance. The dry conditions resulted in no effective start to the season for rainfed agriculture in southern-central areas and higher-than 70% chances of below-normal outcomes in the coastal southeast, Gedo, Middle Juba, and Bay regions, based on a WRSI model outlook. The Deyr rains usually end in the first half of December. Onset of the dry Jilal season in Somalia, which is forecast to be hotter than normal (Figure 1-right), will further suppress vegetation growth and reduce livestock water and pasture resources during early 2025.
Much drier-than-average conditions also occurred in the southern margins of Ethiopia and northeastern Kenya, where October 1st to December 10th rainfall totals may be 45% to 75% of average (Figure 1-left). During late November to mid-October, large rainfall deficits developed in southeastern Kenya and northeastern Tanzania and average maximum temperatures were record-high for this period in some locations. Temperatures were above-average across most equatorial zones (Figure 1 middle-left). In eastern Kenya and ongoing deficit areas in southern Somalia and southern-central Ethiopia, below-average rainfall is forecast by the GEFS and SubX models during the next two weeks.
During mid-to-late November, highly above-average rainfall occurred in southern South Sudan, Uganda, western, southern, and eastern Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi, and northern Tanzania. Past 30-day rainfall estimates, from October 26th to November 25th, reflect these storms as well as the unseasonably wet conditions that continued in western Ethiopia. In western Amhara and Benshangul Gumuz, October to November totals may be higher in 2024 than any other year on the CHIRPS record, based on preliminary data. Above-average rainfall in parts of Ethiopia reportedly negatively affected ongoing harvests, particularly, over the mid and lowlands regions of Tigray, Amhara, Oromia, Sidama, and Central Ethiopia Regional States.
Much of East Africa experienced average to above-average rains in October and November, except for southern Ethiopia, eastern, and coastal Tanzania. Parts of northern Ethiopia, western Kenya, and western Tanzania experienced rainfall amounts exceeding 150% of the average. In northeastern Uganda, western Kenya, and central and southern Tanzania, above-average rainfall is forecast during the next two weeks.
During December to February (DJF) 2024/25, ICPAC (Figure 1 middle-right and right), WMO, NMME, and C3S forecasts indicate drier-than-normal conditions in eastern Kenya and portions of southern Ethiopia, Uganda, and South Sudan. Above-normal temperatures are anticipated– especially in the eastern Horn and parts of coastal Tanzania. Above-average rainfall is likely to continue in Tanzania during DJF.
Negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions- a driver of the poor Deyr season- are forecast to return to a neutral state soon, but a La Niña event is anticipated during the next several months. This especially raises concerns about possible back-to-back poor rainfall seasons in Somalia. La Niñas are associated with higher chances of below-average March-to-May rainfall in the eastern Horn. Forecast very warm sea surface temperatures (SST) in the western Pacific Ocean could lead to a strong Pacific SST gradient during and after the La Niña event, which raises potential for La Niña-like impacts in the eastern Horn.
Figure 1. Season precipitation anomaly outlook, recent temperature anomaly, and 3-month probabilistic forecasts of precipitation and 2m temperature. Left: Percent of average rainfall for October 1st to December 10th, 2024. Based on CHIRPS Preliminary for November 1st to 25th and a CHIRPS-GEFS forecast for November 26th to December 10th. The anomaly is relative to the 1981-2023 CHIRPS average for the same accumulation period. From CHC Early Estimates. Middle-left: Average daily maximum temperatures for October 27th to November 15th, 2024, shown as the difference from average for this period. Stippling shows locations where the value was exceptionally high. Based on 1991-2020 data from the CHIRTS-ERA5 Tmax product, which uses ECMWF ERA5 operational and CHIRTSmax monthly historical data. Middle-right and right: Seasonal forecast for December 2024 to February 2025 (DJF) precipitation (middle-right) and 2m temperatures (right), from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, central Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, second season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage along the Gulf of Guinea, and harvesting is now underway in Nigeria and Cameroon. Along the Sahel, harvesting of main season cereals is also nearing completion in Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. Additionally, planting of second season rice is just beginning in Mauritania and Mali. Throughout West Africa, generally good weather outcomes at the beginning of the season between March and July benefitted early crop development. Additionally, cumulative June to September rainfall was generally average to above-average, which mostly benefitted crop development but resulted in flooding and crop losses in some central and northern areas of the region, including in Mali, Niger, Chad, Nigeria, and Cameroon. Conversely, rainfall deficits between July and September impacted parts of the Gulf of Guinea, including Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, and Benin. Despite mixed rainfall outcomes, overall yield prospects remain generally favourable, except in northern Ghana where a prolonged dry spell in July and August is likely to impact final yields, and in regions impacted by ongoing conflict and socio-economic challenges, which includes central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, northern Nigeria, the Far North and Southwest regions of Cameroon, western Chad, and the Central African Republic.
Furthermore, despite the generally favourable yield expectations throughout West Africa, production declines are expected in some areas due to mixed rainfall outcomes this season and conflict. In Cape Verde, delayed onset of the August to October rainy season was followed by erratic rains from September to mid-October, which negatively impacted crop establishment and development in several key producing areas, including the islands of Santiago and Fogo. As a result, in Cape Verde, maize production is expected to be 40 percent below the 2023 level and 10 percent below the average of the previous five years. In Mali, the onset of the May to October rainy season was late, and below-average rainfall between May and June limited planting activities and crop establishment. A shift to heavy rains from July through October then resulted in widespread flooding and subsequent crop losses. Ségou, Mopti, and Koulikoro were the most impacted regions, with the main season rice crop being particularly affected. Overall production is expected to be 3 percent below-average, which can also be attributed to ongoing insecurity, early season deficits and reduced input access that limited planted area, and crop losses from pests. In Liberia, rainfall deficits this year are expected to result in below-average production. In Nigeria, overall production is expected to be below-average as a result of dry spells in the centre and south, flooding and conflict in the north, and the high cost of agricultural inputs.
Middle East & North Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across the Middle East and North Africa, winter wheat planting is now underway in all areas, including in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Conditions are mixed due to early season dryness with ongoing concern in central-west and eastern Morocco, western and eastern Algeria, central-northern Tunisia, Libya, and central Iran. Conversely, conditions are favourable in Egypt where crops are primarily irrigated, as well as in northwestern Morocco, central Algeria, central-eastern Tunisia, Iraq, and most of Iran where crop biomass is near-average. The region is expected to receive below-normal rainfall through early 2025 as wheat crops enter the vegetative to reproductive stage (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10).
In Morocco, a delayed start to the season is impacting Doukala, Chaouia, and Marrakech provinces located in the centre-west and Oriental province located in the northeast. Elsewhere, crop development is close to average as the rainfall deficit is less severe. In Algeria, dry conditions are delaying crop growth in the northwest from Tlemcen to Relizane and Chlef provinces, in the southeast in Tebessa and Khenchela provinces, and in the northeast in Constantine and Setif provinces. In Tunisia, low rainfall is delaying crop growth in Le Kef located in the centre-west and in Bizerte located in the north. Elsewhere, rainfall outcomes are near to above-normal. In Libya, early season dry conditions are contributing to delayed crop growth as of late November.
In Syria, sowing of wheat and barley is underway and is expected to finalize in early January. Rainfall improvements at the end of October benefitted crop biomass, which is near-average. However, the consequences of the ongoing conflict, and in particular the hostilities that have intensified over the past month in the northwest, remain a concern and are expected to negatively influence production outcomes. In Iraq, sowing of winter wheat and barley is expected to finalize in December, and overall conditions are favourable with near-average crop biomass. Additionally, rice harvesting is underway in the Qadissiya and Najaf provinces located in the south, and average to above-average production outcomes are expected. In northern Iran, dry weather during the start of the season delayed wheat planting activities. Concern remains in the centre where below-average rainfall continues to impact Esfahan and Kerman provinces. Elsewhere, wheat conditions are near-average with adequate soil moisture levels. Rice harvesting is now complete in the northern provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran, and Golestan and the central southern provinces of Fars and Khuzestan with average to above-average production outcomes expected.
Regional Outlook: Below-average rainfall is expected to persist into early 2025 across much of North Africa and the Middle East
Below-average rainfall conditions during November to early December 2024 (Figure 1-left) may persist through early 2025. WMO (Figure 1-middle), NMME, and C3S forecasts all indicate that there are higher-than-normal chances of below-normal December 2024 to February 2025 precipitation across the region.
As of November 27th, the 15-day GEFS predicts below-average rainfall in Morocco, Algeria, and northern Tunisia. This raises concerns that the drier-than-average pattern observed during November will continue at least into early December. Below-average and untimely rainfall has had negative impacts in recent seasons, including last year. During five of the past six seasons, total crop production in northwest Africa (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) was below-average.
Below-normal soil moisture is a likely outcome if rainfall does not improve. According to NASA’s NMME-based forecast there are high, greater-than 70% chances, of below-normal February 2025 root zone soil moisture in some west and eastern areas- in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, western Syria, Israel, and Jordan (Figure 1-right).
Temperatures will likely be above-normal during winter and spring. Some models also indicate drier-than-normal conditions in Morocco and western and southern areas in the Middle East, but there is a high level of uncertainty across the region. Observed conditions and shorter range forecasts are essential for monitoring storm activity, rainfall distribution, and vegetation impacts, and thus should be closely monitored.
Figure 1. A season precipitation anomaly outlook, a 3-month probabilistic precipitation forecast, and a probabilistic soil moisture forecast for February 2025. Left: A CHC Early Estimate, which compares recent precipitation totals to the 1981-2023 CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. This panel shows the precipitation anomaly (mm) for November to December 10th, 2024, using CHIRPS Prelim for November 01-25 and CHIRPS-GEFS for November 26 - December 10th. Middle: Probabilistic forecast for December 2024 to February 2025 precipitation tercile, based on November initial conditions. From the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Right: Probabilistic forecast for February 2025 root zone soil moisture tercile, from the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System’s FLDAS forecast. This outlook uses CHIRPS and MERRA-2 reanalysis data through October 2024, and forecasted meteorological conditions for November to February from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the GEOSv2 model.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Southern Africa, planting of main season cereals is now underway in all regions, including in Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, eSwatini, and Lesotho. Planting conditions are mostly favourable, though some areas experienced a slow start to the seasonal rains, including in southern Zambia where there are emerging deficits and in northeastern South Africa where the planting window is nearing its end and where some areas have not received sufficient rains. Parts of Namibia and the southern half of Mozambique also experienced delayed rains, though conditions remain favourable as there is still adequate time for rainfall improvements and planting. Rainfall accumulation from October has been generally below-average, particularly over central areas that recorded a delay in the start of rains, including southern Zambia, central South Africa, and parts of Mozambique (See Regional Outlook Pg 12). The delayed rains in some areas in combination with low reservoir levels could result in production declines. Furthermore, poor production outcomes from the drought-impacted 2024 main season harvest will constrain farmers’ ability to purchase agricultural inputs for the current season. Some countries, including Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, are implementing subsidy support to promote production outcomes. Additionally, the 2023/24 drought reduced grazing and water availability for livestock, so draught power for the current planting season may be constrained. However, the planting window is still open and is possible through December. The forecast weak La Niña is associated with greater uncertainty for potential rainfall outcomes, and dry conditions are currently forecast through mid-December across most areas with the possibility of extending through February 2024 as crops enter the vegetative to reproductive stage. Furthermore, the 2024/25 tropical cyclone season is expected to be normal to above-normal, with likely associated impacts to eastern areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12).
In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in the north, west, and centre of the country while planting and development continues in the east and southeast. Despite below-average rainfall received over the past few months, overall conditions remain favourable with near-normal cropping outcomes expected.
Wheat harvesting finalized in Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Lesotho and is nearing completion in South Africa, and end of season conditions are mostly favourable except in central and southern Zambia. Consecutive low rainfall seasons in the Zambezi Basin resulted in critically low water levels at the Kariba Dam and subsequent extensive loadshedding in Zambia and Zimbabwe. In Zambia, loadshedding has reduced farmers’ ability to use irrigation this season, and below-average production and yield outcomes are expected in the centre and south. Conversely, in Zimbabwe, increased planted area and government support for this season’s production is expected to result in record wheat output despite the reduced dam levels. In South Africa, conditions are favourable to exceptional as above-normal rains received over the winter rainfall region had a positive effect on dryland production, and temperatures were favourable over the interior where wheat is mostly irrigated. Well above-average yields are expected in Free State, Eastern Cape, and Northern Cape provinces where conditions have been upgraded to exceptional.
Regional Outlook: Hot and dry conditions forecast through mid-December and may continue through February in parts of the region
Drier-than-average conditions during October 1st to November 25th led to moderate rainfall deficits, ranging from 25 mm to greater than 50 mm, in central and northeastern Angola, central and southern DRC, central and eastern Madagascar, as well as in central areas of the South Africa maize triangle (Figure 1-left). Smaller, but notable, rainfall deficits emerged in southern Zambia, Botswana, and portions of western and eastern Zimbabwe, central and southern Mozambique, and central and western Madagascar. Rainfall through November 25th was above-average in Malawi and portions of central-northern Mozambique and northeastern and southeastern South Africa.
In areas where seasonal rains typically begin by mid-November, rainfall data through November 20th indicate an irregular onset pattern. While in many areas these rains began either on time or earlier than normal, in some observed and forecast rainfall deficit areas the dry conditions were associated with a late onset, by around 10 days and up to 20-30 days. These include central areas of South Africa’s maize triangle region, central and eastern Madagascar, and portions of central and northern Angola, southern Zambia, and central and southeastern Mozambique. In eastern Botswana and southern and western Zimbabwe, forecast below-average rainfall indicates that consistent seasonal rains, which typically arrive in late November, could be several weeks late.
Below-average rainfall is forecast from late November through the second week of December across central and southern areas according to GEFS forecasts from November 27th (Figure 1 middle-left) and the ECMWF forecast from the 26th. Above-average maximum temperatures are also forecast in the early weeks of December, which could lead to faster soil moisture losses through higher evaporation (Figure 1 middle-right).
During December to February (DJF) 2024-2025 a number of NMME (Figure 1-right) and WMO models are forecasting below-normal rainfall in western areas, including in Angola and Namibia, as well as in central and southeastern areas (Botswana and parts of Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Madagascar). Several multi-model ensembles indicate above-normal rainfall in northeastern areas. One uncertainty is how- if at all- the forecast development of a weak La Niña will impact the region. A wetter-than-average December to February season tends to occur under La Niña conditions, and historical yield records also suggest better outcomes during these years, but the rainfall connection to El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) varies and has historically been more prominent during the stronger ENSO events. The low level of agreement from the November NMME, WMO, and C3S model forecasts limits a confident outlook for rainfall performance throughout DJF 2025 in central and eastern areas.
The SADC Agromet update (22 November 2024) highlights several concerns going into this season, including the slow onset to the season in northwestern and southeastern rainfall deficit areas. Impacts of the 2023-2024 drought are ongoing. Water levels at Kariba Dam are critically low, and associated load shedding in Zambia and Zimbabwe have disrupted irrigation, industrial activities, and livelihoods. Farmers are expected to have limited draught power during the planting season due to the poor livestock grazing and water conditions. In eastern areas, there will be ongoing risks of severe storms, associated with forecasts for a normal to above-normal tropical cyclone season.
Figure 1. A seasonal precipitation anomaly, a 15-day precipitation anomaly forecast, a 7-day 2m temperature anomaly forecast, and a 3-month probabilistic precipitation forecast. Left: A CHC Early Estimate, which compares recent precipitation totals to the 1981-2023 CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. This panel shows the precipitation anomaly (mm) for October 1st to November 25th, 2024, using CHIRPS Prelim for November 01-25. Middle-left: Forecast next 15-day precipitation anomaly, based on the November 27th, 2024 GEFS that is bias-adjusted to CHIRPS (CHIRPS-GEFS). Middle-right: ECMWF Extended Range ensemble 7-day mean anomalies of 2m average temperature for December 9-16 2024. Forecast anomalies are shown where these are significantly different from modeled climatology (p < 0.1); see ECMWF Charts Catalog for more information. Right: Probabilistic forecast for December 2024 to February 2025 precipitation tercile, using North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models (November initial conditions). Colors indicate the forecast probability of each category, based on 124 ensemble members from 7 models and a 1991-2020 baseline. White areas are where there is a high level of disagreement amongst forecasts.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing Winter Wheat conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central and South Asia, planting and development of 2024/25 winter wheat crops continues throughout Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Conditions remain mostly favourable, though rainfall deficits are beginning to emerge in some areas and are now causing concern for crop germination and early development in north and southern Afghanistan. Both the winter and spring rainfall seasons are projected to be below-average in most areas, and the spring season is likely to be warmer than normal in parts of the centre and south (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14).
In Afghanistan, winter wheat planting began in October with erratic rainfall distribution at the start of the month, followed by cumulative below-average precipitation across most areas later in the month that is now causing concern in parts of the north and south. Elsewhere, the timing of precipitation supported planting and wheat establishment, and sown seeds remain healthy. According to recent field reports, 50 to 60 percent of the wheat areas have been cultivated, and planting operations may extend through December. However, the recent dry conditions combined with forecast below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures through early 2025 (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14) could result in high levels of dryness, which may negatively impact germination and cause below-average snow water equivalent levels. In some irrigated areas of the south, east, and southeast, surface water is the primary source of irrigation, though groundwater may be used to supplement water needs. If the timing of rainfall is not well aligned with the crop growth stages, a lack of precipitation may negatively impact germination of sown seeds in these areas. The forecast dry conditions could also negatively impact the overall 2024/25 wheat harvest outcomes, particularly if a potential shortfall in winter wheat planted area is not offset by an increase in spring wheat planted area. Furthermore, pasture conditions could be impacted by the anticipated dry conditions, leaving lower fodder availability during winter months that could deteriorate the productivity of the livestock sector. Poppy cultivation has been observed in the northeast and will likely increase from last year’s level, though it is not expected to compete with wheat production areas. In Pakistan, harvesting of main season maize finalized in November while harvesting of Kharif (summer) season rice continues, and yield prospects are favourable. Additionally, planting of Rabi season wheat continues under favourable conditions.
Regional Outlook: Below-average winter and spring season precipitation is forecast across much of Central and South Asia
The Fall 2024 to Winter 2025 precipitation season has begun. There are concerns for the rainfed and spring wheat growing seasons due to below-average October to early December precipitation in southern areas, as well as pessimistic model forecasts for December 2024 to May 2025 precipitation. Below-normal precipitation could pose challenges for crop production, the livestock sector, and annual snowpack development.
October-to-November temperatures were warmer than average, and precipitation was average to slightly below-average throughout most of the region, with slight (~10 mm) deficits occurring in northeast Afghanistan and southwestern Tajikistan, based on preliminary estimates. However, on November 23rd, heavy rainfall led to flooding in several districts in northern Afghanistan (Kunduz province), which damaged homes and inundated 200 to 1,000 acres of agricultural land, according to the Afghanistan Ministry of Agriculture. Precipitation was also above-average in the northeast, including eastern Uzbekistan, northern and central Tajikistan, and western Kyrgyzstan.
A 15-day unbiased GEFS forecast from December 2nd indicates precipitation is likely to be below-average throughout the region, with deficits of 10-30 mm. The resulting outlook through December 15th (Figure 1-left), which includes this 15-day forecast, indicates below-average seasonal precipitation totals throughout Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and western Tajikistan (Figure 1-left). Seasonal totals would still be above-average in western Kyrgyzstan, despite the below-average 15-day forecast.
In Southern and Central Asia, models indicate that winter and spring seasons will likely be drier than normal. The WMO and NMME forecast 50 to 60% chances of below-normal precipitation during December 2024 to February 2025 (Figure 1-middle) and March to May 2025 (Figure 1-right). Spring will likely be especially warm in central and southern areas, based on an NMME forecast for 60-70% chances of above 80th percentile temperatures. A weak La Niña event is forecast during December to February (a 72% chance, according to the NOAA CPC Official ENSO forecast). Past La Niña conditions have often led to below-average precipitation, and above-average temperatures were also a feature of recent La Niñas.
Snow water amounts are currently below-average for Afghanistan and nearby areas. While it is still early in the snow season, these areas are in need of a good snow year after five below-average years in a row. Based on current forecasts, snowpack could again be lower than average and melt faster than usual. Groundwater has become increasingly important in recent years and the snow conditions in recent years negatively impacted groundwater recharge. Another dry year could do the same, while also leading to higher extraction rates.
Figure 1. A season precipitation anomaly outlook and 3-month probabilistic precipitation forecasts
Left: A CHC Early Estimate, which compares recent precipitation totals to the 1981-2023 CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. This panel shows the precipitation anomaly (mm) for October 1st to December 15th, 2024, using CHIRPS Prelim for November 01-30 and CHIRPS-GEFS for December 1st-15th. Middle: Probabilistic forecast for December 2024 to February 2025 precipitation tercile, based on November initial conditions. From the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Right: Probabilistic forecast for March to May 2025 precipitation tercile. Probabilities are derived from forecasts from seven North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models (October initial conditions). Colors indicate the forecast probability of each category, based on 124 ensemble members from 7 models and a 1991-2020 baseline. White areas are climatologically dry or there is a high level of disagreement amongst forecasts.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion under favourable conditions due to sufficient irrigation water supply during the growing season. Planting of wet-season rice is underway, and growing conditions are mostly favourable except in Malaysia where overly wet conditions continue to hamper planting progress. In northern Southeast Asia, November is the peak month of wet-season rice harvesting, and conditions are mixed as this season has been affected by heavy rains from typhoons in the latter half of the growing season. The rains resulted in widespread flood damage and are likely to result in yield reductions in the Philippines. Elsewhere in the north, yield impacts were limited, and favourable outcomes are expected. Dry-season rice is in the field preparation to seeding stage under favourable conditions. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Bangladesh, conditions are mostly favourable except in eastern Bangladesh due to prior flooding.
In Indonesia, November was the fifth month of dry-season rice harvesting, and yield is expected to be higher than the last dry season due to sufficient irrigation water supply during the growing season. The total harvested area reached 4.1 million hectares, producing 21.3 million tonnes which is 8.3 percent higher than the last dry season. November was also the second month of wet-season rice planting, and planted crops are now in the vegetative phase under favourable conditions. Planting is progressing faster than last year at 1.1 million hectares, which is 41.9 percent higher than the last wet season. In Malaysia, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion, and while yields are near-average, production in the north is expected to decline due to flooding in October. Additionally, planting of wet-season rice has reached 32 percent of the cultivated area, and there is concern in some regions due to erratic rainfall and overly wet conditions. In Brunei, about 90 percent of dry-season rice has been harvested with a yield of 2.96 metric tonnes per hectare. While conditions remain favourable, high precipitation and elevated temperatures throughout the season resulted in substantial insect damage and slight yield declines. Transplanting of wet-season rice has started in rainfed areas under favourable conditions while land preparation is still underway in irrigated areas. Above-average rainfall is expected during the early part of the season. In the Philippines, wet-season rice planted from July to August is now in the maturing and harvesting stage, and there is concern as multiple cyclones of varying strengths have impacted the country since September, ranging from Severe Tropical Storm to Super Typhoon strength. The successive cyclones have reached unprecedented locations and scales, bringing associated hazards such as heavy rainfall, strong winds, and landslides to affected areas. On October 24, Tropical Cyclone Trami (locally named Kristine) made landfall in the northeast as a Severe Tropical Storm, bringing intense rains to Luzon and Visayas regions and resulting in widespread flooding and landslides. Then on October 26, Tropical Cyclone Kong-rey (locally named Leon) passed over
Northern Luzon, intensifying into a super typhoon and impacting several provinces that had already been affected by Trami. Trami (Kristine) and Kong-rey (Leon) were the deadliest tropical cyclones to hit the country this year. On November 7, Typhoon Yinxing (locally name Marce), made landfall in Northern Luzon as the third cyclone to impact the country in three weeks. On November 9, Typhoon Nika neared the country, making landfall in northeastern Central Luzon, and on November 14, Typhoon Usagi (locally named Ofel), made landfall as a strong typhoon in northeastern Northern Luzon. On November 16, Tropical Cyclone Manyi (locally named Pepito) crossed central Northern Luzon and northeastern Central Luzon. Manyi was the sixth cyclone to cross the country in a month, and most affected areas were still recovering from prior cyclone impacts. Overall, the storms resulted in severe damage to agricultural areas, and around 181.3 thousand hectares of paddy fields were affected in most parts of Luzon as well as some parts of Visayas and Mindanao. As a result, wet-season rice conditions have been downgraded to poor in the north due to significant flood damage and crop lodging. In Thailand, wet-season rice is in the harvesting stage under favourable conditions. The total harvested area is about 9.6 million hectares, which is 0.01 percent lower than last year as flooding in October damaged 142 thousand hectares, representing 1.4 percent of the total planted area. However, both production and yield increased slightly due to good growing conditions during the growing stages as well as farmers’ ability to closely attend to their crops this season. Dry-season rice is in the land preparation stage, and planted area is expected to increase compared to the previous year due to sufficient irrigation water supply and government support for production. In northern Viet Nam, wet-season rice is in the harvesting stage, and conditions have improved from last month’s concern regarding storm impacts. While the season typically ends by October, many fields were reseeded after storm passage. The current harvested area is 0.76 million hectares out of the total 0.99 million hectares planted, and harvesting activities are expected to finalize by the end of November. The yield is estimated at around 5.36 tons per hectare, which is 1.9 percent lower than last year due to the impact of Typhoon Yagi. In the south, the other wet-season (autumn-winter and seasonal) rice is in the harvesting stage under favourable conditions. The total harvested area is 0.49 million hectares with a forecast yield of around 5.8 tons per hectare, which is 3.3 percent higher than last year due to warm weather and better irrigation preparation. Furthermore, some provinces in the Mekong Delta began sowing dry-season (winter-spring) rice. In lowland areas of Laos, wet-season rice is in the harvesting stage under favourable conditions. The harvested area reached up to 681 thousand hectares accounting for about 89 percent of the total planted area. Final production is estimated to be 3 million tonnes with a yield of 4.23 tonnes per hectare. In upland areas, harvesting of wet-season rice is nearing completion with an estimated final production level of 142 thousand tonnes. In Myanmar, planting of wet-season rice is now complete with a planted area of 5.94 million hectares accounting for 97.8 percent of the national plan. Crops are mostly in the grain filling stage, and overall growing conditions are favourable. Harvesting of earlier planted crops is now underway, and yield is near-average but slightly lower than last year. Monsoon flooding that occurred in October affected over 480 thousand hectares of planted crops and damaged 280 thousand hectares. Replanting has been carried out for about half of the damaged fields, and the other half will be grown with winter crops. In Cambodia, harvesting of wet-season rice finalized with a favourable yield of about 3.8 tonnes per hectare, which is higher than last year, and a harvested area of 1,205 thousand hectares. Planting of dry-season rice reached about 31 percent of the national plan of 533 thousand hectares. Planted crops are in the sowing to tillering stage, and growing conditions are favourable with sufficient irrigation water supply and sunlight levels. In Sri Lanka, planting of Maha season maize (90 percent of annual maize output) and rice (65 percent of annual rice output) continues under favourable conditions. In Nepal, harvesting of rice crops, the country’s main staple crop, is now underway while wheat planting continues, and overall conditions remain favourable. In Bangladesh, harvesting of both Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice production) and main season sorghum is underway while planting of Boro season rice (55 percent of annual rice production), winter/Rabi season maize, and winter wheat is just beginning. Conditions are mostly favourable, except along eastern regions that were impacted by significant flooding this year.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing Beans 2 (Postrera) conditions as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, Segunda/Postrera season maize and bean crops are mostly in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and harvesting is just beginning in Nicaragua. There is ongoing concern in Guatemala, Honduras, western Nicaragua, and El Salvador due to a combination of erratic rainfall outcomes, hot temperatures, and recent storm impacts. Rainfall outcomes from the start of land preparation in August through mid-November were mixed, with below-average amounts received across much of Guatemala, El Salvador, eastern Honduras, and northeastern Nicaragua and above-average amounts received elsewhere in Honduras and Nicaragua. Additionally, on November 14, Tropical Storm Sara made landfall along the border of Honduras and Nicaragua as the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, bringing heavy rainfall and posing severe flooding and mudslide risks. Previously, the Atlantic hurricane season was forecast to produce between 17 and 25 named storms due in part to warmer sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Overall, Tropical Storm Sara resulted in flooded cropland in Nicaragua, Honduras, much of Guatemala, and eastern El Salvador, and the impact of losses is being assessed. The storm also produced rainfall that affected crops in the Gulfo de Fonseca region, resulting in marginal losses. In Nicaragua, Sara resulted in extensive damage, particularly in San Juan department located in the southwest where more than 30 percent of the cropland was affected. Conversely, the recent rains have improved soil moisture levels in the east, and growing conditions are favourable except in localized areas. In Honduras, Sara was projected to bring up to 30 inches of rain to parts of the north, and forecasts were also indicating additional rains in the northwest, including the flood-prone Sula Valley region. Red beans were impacted in the eastern part of the country, which is a primary production zone. Conversely, in western El Salvador, dry and hot weather at the beginning of the season is negatively impacting vegetation conditions across large areas of cropland, and in eastern Guatemala, dry and hot conditions have resulted in pest and disease outbreaks.
In Haiti, harvesting of Été season maize and beans finalized in October, and yields are expected to be near-average despite prior concerns regarding erratic rainfall distribution and limited precipitation received during germination, and overall production is expected to be near-normal. However, from November 10 to 12, a tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea caused torrential rains in the Sud department, leading to severe flooding and localized damage to the agricultural and livestock sectors. The most affected municipalities include Les Cayes, Torbeck, Saint-Louis-du-Sud, and Port-Salut. In Cuba, harvesting of main season maize and rice finalized in November under favourable conditions. Additionally, planting of second season rice, which accounts for about a third of annual rice production, is just beginning, and there is concern as the country was hit by two hurricanes and two earthquakes within 20 days of each other in late October and early November. On October 20, Hurricane Oscar impacted eastern areas of the country as a Category 1 hurricane, and on November 6, Hurricane Rafael caused extensive damage to west and central provinces as a Category 3 hurricane. The hurricanes resulted in about 571 hectares of maize damage. Following the passage of Hurricanes Rafael and Oscar, two 5.9 and 6.8 magnitude earthquakes struck the country on November 10, impacting provinces in the southeast.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published December 5th, 2024.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.