Crop Monitor for Early Warning
Report Information
No. 99: Published November 7th, 2024
Conditions as of October 28th
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Overview
In northern East Africa, heavy rains this season continue to disrupt crop maturation and harvesting for the Meher season in parts of Ethiopia and for the main season in South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen. In the Eastern Horn, delayed seasonal rains are disrupting planting and establishment of second season crops, and dry conditions are forecast to continue in most areas. In West Africa, the main season is nearing completion in all regions, and yield prospects are mostly favourable in non-conflict affected regions despite localized dry spells and flooding impacts in various locations this season. However, a prolonged dry spell is expected to reduce yields in northern Ghana. In the Middle East & North Africa, winter wheat planting is just beginning with some initial concern due to early season dry conditions that are forecast to continue. In Syria, recent and ongoing conflict continue to reduce yield outcomes below the pre-conflict average. In Southern Africa, planting for the 2024/25 main agricultural season is ramping up, and conditions are mostly favourable with good rains expected in the coming months, though forecasts have high uncertainty. Wheat harvesting continues under generally favourable conditions except in Zambia and Zimbabwe where low reservoir levels are impacting irrigation use. In Central & South Asia, harvesting for the 2023/24 wheat season finalized under favourable to exceptional conditions, and planting of winter wheat for the 2024/25 season is just beginning. In southern Southeast Asia, conditions are generally favourable for dry-season rice harvesting. In the north, overly wet conditions from storms and other weather systems continue to cause concern in some countries, though conditions in Thailand and Cambodia were upgraded to favourable as the impact was less than expected. In Central America & the Caribbean, harvesting of Primera season cereals finalized a month behind schedule with generally favourable outcomes, except for small-scale producers and areas in southeastern Guatemala. There is concern for Segunda/Postrera cereal development due to mixed impacts of heavy rains from storms, hot weather, and subsequent pest and disease occurrence.
Crop Conditions at a Glance
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor for Early Warning crops as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.
EAST AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is underway, and heavy rains are impacting parts of Ethiopia (Meher season), South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen. In southern East Africa, planting and development of second season cereals continues with concern in most areas due to delayed and below-average rains, particularly in southern Somalia and eastern Kenya (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
WEST AFRICA: Harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in all countries, and growing conditions have remained relatively stable this season despite mixed impacts of overly wet conditions in the Sahel and overly dry conditions in the south, except in northern Ghana where a prolonged dry spell is expected to reduce yields and in conflict-affected areas.
MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA: Winter wheat planting is now underway, and there is concern regarding early season dry conditions that could impact crop establishment. Seasonal rains are forecast to be below-average in Morocco, Algeria, and the Middle East (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10).
SOUTHERN AFRICA: Planting for the 2024/25 main agricultural season is now underway. Early season conditions are favourable, and rainfall through February is expected to be average to above-average, though there is high uncertainty (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). Wheat harvesting continues under mixed conditions with well above-average yields expected in parts of South Africa.
CENTRAL & SOUTH ASIA: Harvesting for the 2023/24 wheat season finalized under generally favourable conditions, with exceptional outcomes in Kazakhstan despite recent concerns of potential reduced grain quality from heavy rains. Planting of 2024/25 winter wheat is just beginning under favourable conditions, though below-normal precipitation is anticipated in most areas through early 2025 (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14).
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Dry-season rice harvesting is nearing completion in the south under mostly favourable conditions, though insect damage in Brunei may slightly reduce final yields. In the north, overly wet conditions from Super Typhoon Yagi and other weather systems continue to impact crops in parts of Myanmar, Laos, Viet Nam, and the Philippines, but the overall impact was less than expected.
CENTRAL AMERICA & CARIBBEAN: Primera season harvesting was delayed and finalized in October with near-average yields expected for large producers, except in southeastern Guatemala, and below to well below-average yields expected for subsistence farmers due to erratic rains and high temperatures this season. There is emerging concern for Segunda/Postrera cereal development due to a combination of storm impacts, high temperatures, and pest and disease occurrence.
Global Climate Outlook: Two-week forecast of areas of above or below-average precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over southwest Peru, southern and central Brazil, northern Norway, Gabon, southern Republic of Congo, western Democratic Republic of Congo, northwest Angola, central Russian Federation, northern and southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, northern Pakistan, southern India, Sri Lanka, central and northern China, western Republic of Korea, southern Japan, western and eastern Indonesia, southern Papua New Guinea, and western and eastern Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over western and central Canada, southwest and the southeast US, northwest Mexico, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and northeast Brazil, eastern Argentina, southern Uruguay, Ireland, United Kingdom, Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, northern Italy, southern and northern Germany, southeast Poland, Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Greece, Bulgaria, northwest Türkiye, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus, eastern and western Russian Federation, northern Morocco, western Algeria, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, northern Côte d'Ivoire, southwest Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, central and southern Benin, central and southern Nigeria, central Cameroon, southern Chad, western Central African Republic, central Ethiopia, coastal Somalia, eastern Kenya, eastern Tanzania, central Zambia, central and southern Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Jordan, central and southern Iraq, northern Saudi Arabia, western and southern Iran, central Afghanistan, the Philippines, northern Papua New Guinea, northern Australia, and central New Zealand.
Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 9 – 22 November 2024, issued on 1 November 2024. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Climate Influences: Weak La Niña is forecast during October 2024 to February 2025
La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the next several months. The CPC/IRI predicts there is a 71 to 75 percent chance of La Niña during October 2024 to February 2025. If La Niña does develop, it will likely be a weak (0.5-1.0C) and short-lived event, likely returning to ENSO-neutral conditions by March 2025.
La Niña typically raises the chances of below-average precipitation in eastern East Africa, central-southern Asia, southern South America, the southern United States, northern Mexico, and eastern East Asia. Above-average precipitation tends to become more likely in Southeast Asia, Australia, Southern Africa, and northern South America. Strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole index values occurred in October and negative values are forecast through November, raising the chances that below-average rainfall will continue to impact eastern East Africa during the short rains season. Current extreme deficits, combined with further poor precipitation, will likely lead to wide-spread crop failure in Somalia and Eastern Kenya, and severe degradation of pasture conditions.
2024 will almost certainly be the warmest year on record, according to NOAA NCEI's latest statistical analysis. September 2024 was the second warmest September on record and followed a 15-month streak of record-high global temperatures. Very warm ocean temperatures contributed to extreme storm development during the active June to November 2024 Atlantic basin hurricane season. If a La Niña develops, forecast very warm western Pacific Ocean conditions would strengthen temperature gradients, which could potentially enhance or prolong impacts. In agricultural areas such as central Brazil, where models are forecasting highly above-average temperatures into 2025, excessive heat will be an ongoing concern during periods of moisture stress or reproductive stages that determine final yields.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
East Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 1 crop conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Across northern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is underway in Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Yemen while crops continue to develop in Sudan and Eritrea for harvest from November. Additionally, second season cereals are developing in bimodal regions of southern South Sudan. Agro-climatic conditions are mixed as heavy rains this season are impacting parts of Ethiopia, unimodal regions of South Sudan, much of Sudan, and western coastal areas of Yemen. Various flooding and mudslide events this season are expected to impact harvesting outcomes, but it is uncertain to what extent. Additionally, recent and ongoing conflict continues to disrupt agricultural activities throughout Sudan and Yemen, and the prior conflict situation in northern Ethiopia continues to cause socio-economic challenges for production. In Ethiopia, overly wet conditions are disrupting crop maturation and harvesting for the main Meher season in parts of the north, centre, and east.
Across southern East Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in the main producing unimodal areas of western Kenya and in the unimodal areas of northern Uganda with generally near-average yields expected. Additionally, planting and development of second season cereals is underway in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, minor producing bimodal areas of eastern Kenya, Somalia, and bimodal areas of northern United Republic of Tanzania with concern in most areas due to delayed rainfall onset and early season dry conditions, except for east, central, and northern Uganda where the season begins a bit earlier and where conditions are currently favourable. The October to December (OND) rainfall season was delayed for most areas, particularly in eastern Kenya, southern Ethiopia, Somalia, and northern United Republic of Tanzania. October rainfall was below-average for these areas, and farmers that engaged in dry planting may have a few losses that will require replanting once the season establishes in November. November is typically the peak month of precipitation for the OND season, and there is a very high level of concern regarding drought in southern Somalia where rains typically subside by late November. Additionally, dry and hot conditions are expected to prevail across most equatorial and southern areas through January 2025, particularly in parts of Somalia, Kenya, and Uganda (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7).
Crop condition map synthesizing Sorghum 1 conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Northern East Africa & Yemen
In Sudan, main season millet and sorghum crops continue to develop for harvest from November, and conditions have been downgraded to poor due to ongoing conflict which continues to disrupt field access and is expected to result in yield declines below the pre-conflict average. Additionally, well above-average rainfall received in recent months and subsequent flooding negatively impacted crop development this season. Crop production is expected to be significantly reduced this year, and there are reports of issues regarding food aid access due to the insecurity. This is expected to be one of the most extreme years in terms of food security impacts since the outbreak of the current conflict situation. In South Sudan, harvesting of first season cereals is now underway in unimodal regions in the centre and north of the country, and conditions are mixed as overly wet conditions are expected to result in yield declines. Conversely, conditions in Kapoeta region located in the southeast remain favourable. The June to September rainy season was categorized by near-normal but temporally erratic rainfall. Near to below-normal June and July rains were followed by a shift to torrential rains in August. This heavy sporadic precipitation in combination with the overflow of Lake Tanganyika has caused the Nile River to burst its banks and resulted in river overflows and widespread flooding, particularly in Unity, Warrap, Lakes, and Jonglei states located in the centre of the country where substantial crop losses are reported. The flooding has affected 42 of the country’s 78 countries as of late October, and the capital of Juba located in the centre-south is experiencing some of the worst flooding in decades. The country is expected to issue a formal declaration of a national disaster regarding catastrophic flooding impacts since July of this year. The flooding will likely worsen by November as a combination of forecast above-average rainfall and river overflows from Uganda could result in record-breaking floods. Furthermore, second season maize and sorghum crops continue to develop in bimodal regions of Central Equatoria and Western Equatoria located in the south of the country under favourable conditions. In Ethiopia, harvesting of Meher season cereals is underway, and agro-climatic conditions are generally favourable in terms of rainfall and soil moisture levels, particularly in the west. However, there is some emerging concern regarding overly wet conditions in parts of the north, centre, and east. Average to above-average rains received during the June to September Kirempt rainy season are expected to generally benefit yields but could disrupt crop maturation and harvesting in areas that received well above-average amounts. Additionally, socio-economic challenges relating to the prior conflict situation continue to hinder movement in parts of the north. In Eritrea, sorghum and wheat crops continue to develop under favourable conditions following good June to September Kirempti rainfall season outcomes. In Yemen, harvesting of main season sorghum is nearing completion, and poor yields are expected due to a combination of overly wet conditions and conflict. Above-average July and August rains benefitted crop development and rangeland resources but resulted in severe flooding across some key production areas in the west. The floods impacted 99,000 hectares of farmland as of August, primarily in Al Hudaydah and Hajjah governorates located along the western coast, which represent 12 and 9 percent of the total farmland respectively. However, the above-average rains generally were more of a benefit to production than a hindrance at the country scale.
Crop condition map synthesizing Maize 2 crop conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
Southern East Africa
In Somalia, planting of Deyr season maize and sorghum is now underway, and there is significant concern regarding a delayed start to the October to December Deyr rains, which are forecast to be below-average through the rest of the short rains season. In the south, the October to early November rains are critical to rainfed production, and forecast below-average precipitation suggests little to no recovery is likely. These outcomes may result in crop failure and poor vegetation conditions for livestock grazing (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In unimodal and major producing areas in the western half of Kenya, harvesting of long rains cereals is underway, and conditions are favourable as the March to August Long Rains were average to slightly above-average. In bimodal and minor producing areas in the eastern half of the country, planting of short rains maize is just beginning, and there is some initial concern regarding currently delayed and below-average rains which are
forecast to continue through mid-November. The cumulative October to December Short Rains are forecast to be below-average, coinciding with the likely onset of La Niña in October (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 7). If forecasts materialize, the limited precipitation is expected to impact short rains crop production in affected areas and will likely lower rangeland resources for pastoral areas. In unimodal areas of northern Uganda, harvesting of first season cereals is complete or nearing completion under favourable conditions. Additionally, harvesting of second season maize is just beginning, and conditions are favourable as the September to November second season rains began on time in the north. In bimodal areas of the country, harvesting of second season maize is underway, and conditions are mostly favourable except in the southwest. Generally above-average rains during the typically dry June to August period were followed by a slightly delayed and below-normal start to the September to November second season rains. Crops planted during the unusually wet period in August experienced dry conditions and moisture stress during September, and replanting activities are likely to take place in affected areas. However, abundant rains received in late September helped to offset early season dryness and are benefitting crop germination, except in the southwest where dry conditions persist. Rainfall is forecast to be generally average over the northeastern areas of the country and below-average elsewhere through January (See Regional Outlook Pg. 7). In Rwanda and Burundi, planting of Season A maize crops is now underway, and there is concern regarding delayed onset of the September to December short rainy season that could impact planting outcomes. In bimodal areas of the north and northern coast of the United Republic of Tanzania, planting of Vuli season maize and winter wheat is underway, and there is initial concern regarding early season dry conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Regional Outlook: Prior concerns regarding drought in the eastern Horn are beginning to materialize, particularly in areas of southern Somalia and eastern Kenya, and dry and hot conditions are expected to continue through January
There is a very high level of concern about drought in southern Somalia. Very dry and hot conditions prevailed during September and October (Figure 1-left and middle-left), due to a late onset of seasonal rains, and below-average rainfall is forecast to continue. Affected areas will likely receive less than 30% to 60% of average rainfall amounts from October 1st to November 10th, based on preliminary data and a 15-day forecast (Figure 1-left). Portions of southern Ethiopia have also been impacted. October to early November rains are critical for enabling rainfed agriculture in southern Somalia. Rains usually subside during late November. Observed vegetation conditions for late October are below-average in many southern areas of the eastern Horn. These are among the lowest of the past 20 years in the Bay region, based on MODIS 8-day NDVI. NDVI was average to above-average going into the Deyr season, but low rainfall amounts and warm temperatures have resulted in only minimal increases thus far. These conditions in southern Somalia are likely to result in failed rainfed crops and low chances for productive grazing outcomes in impacted areas. Vegetation will likely dry out faster than usual under hotter-than-normal temperatures during the dry season, leaving little fodder over a long hot dry season that will run all the way to March or April 2025, when warm west Pacific sea surface temperatures after a La Niña event may bring yet another drought.
Observed and forecast dry and hot conditions are also a major concern for rainfed cropping areas and pastoral vegetation productivity in central, eastern, and northeastern Kenya. Rainfall will be below-average during the first half of November, based on the GEFS forecast from October 31st. In central-eastern lowland areas, a large portion of annual rainfall typically comes during October to December. Poor rainfall performance in late-October to mid-November can delay planting, which introduces a high risk of vegetative drought stress during November and December. In advance of the season, there were concerns about drought in the eastern Horn and consensus that preparedness planning was needed (FSNWG multi-agency alert, August 2024). During October, sea surface temperatures and wind patterns that produced these dry conditions developed over the Indian Ocean (see the CHC October update), which are now reflected by a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole index (-0.9 °C as of Oct. 27th, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology). Negative IOD conditions are forecast through November. According to the ICPAC forecast for November 2024 to January 2025 (Figure 1 middle-right and right), there are increased chances of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most equatorial and southern areas, with greater chances of hot and dry conditions in southern Somalia, northeastern Kenya, and southern Uganda.
Northern and western areas of the region received above-average rainfall in recent weeks. This includes western, central, and northern Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Burundi, and parts of western Tanzania. In South Sudan, high levels of flood inundation were observed during September and October. In Ethiopia’s Oromia region, heavy rains in late September damaged more than 4,460 ha of cropland in West Guji, and a landslide in early October killed at least 22 people in West Hararge Zone (ECHO/Relief Web). Above-average rains are forecast to continue during early November in western and central Ethiopia, Uganda, the Lake Victoria region, and northwestern Tanzania in mid-late November, based on GEFS and longer-range SubX forecasts.
Figure 1. Recent rainfall anomaly outlook, recent temperature anomaly, and 3-month probabilistic forecasts of precipitation and 2m temperature.
Left: Percent of average rainfall for October 1st to November 10th, 2024. Based on CHIRPS Preliminary for October 1st to 25th and a CHIRPS-GEFS forecast for October 26th to November 10th. The anomaly is relative to the 1981-2023 CHIRPS average for the same accumulation period. From CHC Early Estimates. Middle-left: Average daily maximum temperatures for September 26th to October 25th, 2024, shown as the difference from average for this period. Stippling shows locations where the value was exceptionally high. Based on 1991-2020 data from the CHIRTS-ERA5 Tmax product, which uses ECMWF ERA5 operational and CHIRTSmax monthly historical data. Middle-right and right: Seasonal forecast for November 2024 to January 2025 (NDJ) precipitation (middle-right) and 2m temperatures (right), from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
West Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing crop conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in all countries, including in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Additionally, second season maize is in the vegetative to reproductive stage across the Gulf of Guinea areas, and harvesting of second season rice finalized in Nigeria. Across the Sahel, harvesting of main season cereals is also complete or nearing completion in all countries, including in Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Gambia, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad. Additionally, planting of second season rice is underway in Mauritania and Mali. This season was generally categorized by overly dry conditions in southern areas and overly wet conditions in the Sahel. However, crop conditions have remained relatively stable despite the mixed impacts of dry spells and flooding events. Yield prospects remain favourable in most regions, except in northern Ghana where a prolonged dry spell in July and August impacted yields, and in regions impacted by ongoing conflict and socio-economic challenges, which includes central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, northern Nigeria, the Far North and Southwest regions of Cameroon, western Chad, and the Central African Republic. According to the September PREGEC report, the 2024-2025 agropastoral campaign for West Africa and the Sahel forecasts cereal production levels to range from -7 to +9 percent compared to the previous year and +9 to +12 percent compared to the five-year average, depending on end of season outcomes. At this stage, cereal production declines are anticipated in some countries, including Cape Verde, Mauritania, Mali, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.
In Sierra Leone, heavy rainfall from Guinea triggered extensive flooding, impacting 7,324 hectares of farmland as of late September. However, conditions remain favourable as the impacts were mostly localized. In northern Ghana, a severe and acute dry spell from early July to mid-August significantly impacted agricultural areas, leading to crop wilting and total crop failure over worst affected areas, including the Savannah region. According to the Savannah Regional Coordinating Council, Regional Department of Agriculture, 105,922 farmers have been affected by the dry spell in Bole, Central Gonja, East Gonja, North East Gonja, North Gonja, Sawla Tuna-Kalba, and West Gonja districts. In Togo, near-normal rainfall amounts received from May to September have generally supported crop development despite some dry spell impacts from late July and August in the centre and north. Aggregate cereal production is expected to be slightly above-average due to good weather outcomes and agricultural inputs provided by the government. In Benin, generally average cumulative rainfall outcomes have supported crop establishment and development despite localized pockets of dry conditions in Alibori, Atakora, and Borgou departments located in the north of the country as well as localized insecurity in parts of Alibori and Atakora departments. In northern Nigeria, conflict continues to constrain access to farmland and disrupt livelihoods and market activities. Furthermore, localized heavy rainfall resulted in seasonal flooding and disrupted agricultural activities across northern areas this season. Overall, the combined impacts of conflict and socio-economic challenges, flooding events, dry spells, and the high cost of agricultural inputs such as seeds and fertilizer are expected to result in below-average aggregate cereal production.
In Guinea-Bissau, generally adequate cumulative rainfall amounts benefitted coarse grain crop development, though there are localized production shortfalls expected in parts of Gabú located in the east due to dry spells during June and August. For rice, the country’s main cereal, good rainfall outcomes in the key producing Oio, Cacheu, and Biombo departments located in the northwest are expected to result in favourable yield outcomes despite rainfall deficits in August that impacted emerging crops in northern parts of Oio department. In Senegal, many areas along the Senegal River in the north and east of the country remain submerged despite no recent rains received, and more than 1,000 hectares of crops have been damaged in Tambacounda, Bakel, Matam, and Saint-Louis regions located along the east of the country. In Mali, heavy rainfall and flooding this season have resulted in crop losses, and 544,172 hectares of crops were flooded as of September. Flooding continued to impact several regions in early October, including in Bamako, Ségou, Gao, Mopti, and Koulikoro. Agricultural production is expected to be below-average, primarily due to ongoing insecurity, with additional impacts from flooding, pest damage, and restricted access to agricultural inputs. However, the flooding impacts were largely localized, and yields are expected to be near-average in areas not impacted by conflict. In Burkina Faso, normal rainfall outcomes from mid-August through September have resulted in generally adequate conditions as crops entered the flowering stage. Production outcomes are expected to be above the previous year and above-average due to a combination of increased cultivated areas in regions less affected by insecurity, increased fertilizer support and free ploughing services, and a projected normal to late end to the season. However, production is expected to be limited by dry spells in the Sud-Ouest region as well as insecurity in the Sahel, Est, and Centre-Nord regions located in the north and east of the country.
Middle East & North Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In the Middle East and North Africa, planting of winter wheat is just beginning in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran. There is concern in most regions regarding early season dry conditions that could impact crop establishment, and below-average rains are forecast during November in Morocco and western Algeria (See Regional Outlook Pg. 10). However, conditions in northeastern Iran are favourable as the region received average precipitation in October. While peak rainfall for the region normally occurs during November to February, early season dryness can affect sowing and crop establishment. In Syria, recent and ongoing conflict continues to result in yield outcomes below the pre-conflict average. In Egypt, harvesting of summer-planted rice and main season maize is nearing completion while Nili season (Nile Flood) rice crops continue to develop, and overall conditions remain favourable. In Iraq, rice harvesting finalized under favourable conditions with average to above-average prospects in regions that were approved for rice production this year, including the main producing Qadissiya and Najaf governorates.
Regional Outlook: Dry and hot conditions are forecast to impact Morocco, Algeria, and the Middle East this season with below-normal soil moisture levels expected through February 2025
Seasonal climate model forecasts provide a pessimistic outlook for the 2024/25 rainy season across much of the Middle East and North Africa. These forecasts underscore a need for concern about potentially challenging growing conditions during the current season. Five of the past six seasons resulted in below-average total crop production in northwest Africa—including in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia.
During September 26th to November 10th, preliminary estimates and forecast amounts indicate mixed rainfall conditions in the region, with above-average rainfall in central Morocco, central and eastern Tunisia, and portions of Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and below-average rainfall in eastern Algeria and coastal areas of the eastern Mediterranean Sea.
During November, rainfall in Morocco and western Algeria will likely be below average, based on the October 30th 15-day GEFS forecast (Figure 1-left) and ECMWF extended range forecasts through the month. Although peak rainfall generally occurs between November and February, early-season deficits can impact sowing conditions. Longer-lead forecasts indicate that below-normal rainfall (Figure 1-middle) and above-normal temperatures for this season are likely to occur, particularly in Morocco, Algeria, and the Middle East. Below-normal soil moisture conditions are forecast for February 2025, based on September 2024 data and NMME model forecasts from October (Figure 1-right). Poor rainfall performance at the beginning of and during the growing season has impacted production in these areas in recent seasons, including last year.
Figure 1. A 15-day precipitation anomaly forecast, a 4-month probabilistic precipitation forecast, and a probabilistic soil moisture forecast for February 2025
Left: Forecast next 15-day precipitation anomaly, based on the October 30th, 2024 GEFS that is bias-adjusted to CHIRPS (CHIRPS-GEFS). Middle: Probabilistic forecast for November 2024 to January 2025 precipitation tercile, based on October initial conditions. From the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Right: Probabilistic forecast for February 2025 root zone soil moisture tercile, from the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System’s FLDAS forecast. This outlook uses CHIRPS and MERRA-2 reanalysis data through October 2024, and forecasted meteorological conditions for Nov. 2024 to Feb. 2025 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) and the GEOSv2 model.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southern Africa
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Southern Africa, land preparation and planting for the 2024/25 main agricultural season is now underway in Angola, Zambia, South Africa, Lesotho, and eSwatini, and initial conditions are favourable with generally good rains received except in parts of South Africa where delayed rainfall onset is disrupting planting progress. Elsewhere, planting will begin in November, though dry conditions are forecast through early November in south and eastern areas of the region. Average to above-average rainfall is then anticipated to materialize with the forecast La Niña conditions, though there is high uncertainty for rainfall outcomes this season. Model forecasts are not showing the typical positive outlook, and close monitoring is advised as the season progresses. In addition, the previous season drought is having lasting effects on water supply for irrigated crops, including in Zambia and Zimbabwe where the Kariba Dam levels are very low, and seed availability is a concern in some areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12).
In Angola, the prior season’s drought has resulted in low soil moisture across most areas, and some farmers do not have access to maize seeds for planting. In Zambia, the likely occurrence of a La Niña event could bring above-average rains to the country through early 2025 (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). If materialized, the rains would likely benefit crop production but could also result in flooding impacts and related damage. In South Africa, there is concern in parts of the country where a delayed start to the rainy season is having a negative impact on the early-planting areas (See Regional Outlook Pg. 12). Planting is progressing slowly but is underway in areas that did receive rain. In Lesotho, the October to March rainfall season is expected to have a timely and average start. The rains are expected to benefit the currently low soil moisture levels from the prior dry season. However, soil moisture is likely to remain below-average overall, and high temperatures through March may negatively impact crop establishment. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, harvesting of main season maize is underway in the north and west while planting and development of main season cereals continue elsewhere, and overall conditions remain favourable.
Wheat harvesting is now underway in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho and will mostly finalize in November. Yield prospects are generally favourable except in Zambia and Zimbabwe where reduced reservoir levels impacted irrigation use and could result in yield declines. In South Africa, above-normal precipitation received over the winter rainfall region supported dryland wheat cultivation, and adequate water resources supported irrigation production in other parts of the country. Yield prospects are mostly near to above-average, and well above-average yields are expected in Eastern Cape, Free State, Mpumalanga, and Western Cape.
Regional Outlook: Recent below-average rains could disrupt early planting in some areas, and while forecast La Niña conditions are expected to bring near to above-normal rains through February, there is high uncertainty
During recent weeks, from September 26th to October 25th, below-average rainfall occurred in eastern South Africa, southern Mozambique, eastern Madagascar, and central and northeastern Angola (Figure 1 Left). In South Africa, these conditions indicate a delayed start to the rainy season over early-planting regions.
Drier-than-average conditions are anticipated through November 10th in southern and eastern areas of the region (Figure 1 Middle). These may continue into mid-late November, according to the extended range ECMWF forecast from October 30th. November and early December will likely be hotter than average in these areas. In central-northern areas—southern DRC, northern and central Zambia, western Mozambique, and portions of northern Zimbabwe—GEFS and SubX forecasts indicate average to above-average rainfall during late October to mid-November.
Observed rainfall and temperature conditions and short-range forecasts should be monitored closely this season. Average to above-average rainfall is anticipated, associated with forecast La Nina conditions (71% chance during DJF, according to the CPC/IRI official outlook). However, there is uncertainty as ‘typical’ positive La Nina impacts on rainfall are not currently indicated by model forecasts for December 2024 to February 2025. There is currently a low level of model agreement across NMME, WMO, and C3S forecast systems. The C3S ensemble forecast indicates 40-50% chances for above-normal rainfall in northern and eastern areas and offers no clear guidance across central areas (Figure 1 right).
The 2023-2024 drought is having lasting impacts on water resources. Irrigation in Zambia and Zimbabwe will be impacted by the reduced electrical generation capabilities at Kariba Dam, which is only 4.5% full, as of October 28th—close to the minimum operating level. In drier zones in central-western parts of the region, forecast rainfall during this season is unlikely to bring root-zone soil moisture levels up to normal levels, according to the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System forecast for February 2025.
Figure 1. A recent rainfall anomaly, a seasonal rainfall anomaly outlook, and a 3-month probabilistic precipitation forecast.
Left and middle: Both panels are CHC Early Estimates, which compare current precipitation totals to the 1981-2023 CHIRPS average for respective accumulation periods. These show the precipitation anomaly (difference from average; [mm]) for September 26th to October 25th, 2024 (left), and for October 1st to November 10th (middle). Both use CHIRPS Prelim for October 1st to 25th; the outlook includes a CHIRPS-GEFS forecast for October 26th to November 10th. Right: Probabilistic forecast for December 2024 to February 2025 precipitation, based on October initial conditions. Probabilities are based on C3S multi-system seasonal forecasts from ECMWF as part of the Copernicus Programme.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Central & South Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing wheat end of season (EOS) conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central and South Asia, harvesting for the 2023/24 wheat season finalized in all regions, and end of season conditions are generally favourable. In northern Kazakhstan, end off season conditions are exceptional despite last month’s concerns regarding heavy rainfall received towards the end of the harvesting period and subsequent potential reduced grain quality. Additionally, planting for the 2024/25 winter wheat season is now underway in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, and early season conditions are favourable. However, a likely weak to moderate La Niña event is projected to bring below-average precipitation to most parts of the region through early 2025, and likely warmer than normal temperatures could hinder winter snowpack development (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 14).
In Afghanistan, harvesting of 2023/24 season wheat is now complete in all regions with favourable production outcomes. Harvesting of second season rice and maize began in October, and good rains received in March and April combined with the use of groundwater for irrigation are expected to result in production better than last year and near-average in most areas. After completing the harvest of secondary crops, farmers began preparing their land for the upcoming 2024/25 winter wheat season, particularly in north, west, and central irrigated areas. Elsewhere, land preparation is underway for rainfed winter wheat, and cultivation timing will be contingent on the availability of soil moisture and rainfall. Soil moisture conditions are currently above-normal in most parts of the country, and winter wheat planting levels are expected to be near-average despite limited input access and prior drought impacts. Precipitation outcomes were good during the first two weeks of October, benefitting land preparation and early cultivation for winter wheat. Conversely, a shift to below-normal amounts during the third week of October could negatively impact planting progress and could disrupt the germination of sown crops. Farmers that miss the winter wheat planting winter typically use the spring season to cover missed areas. Planting of spring wheat will begin in February and March 2025, depending on water availability for irrigated areas and depending on rainfall and temperature outcomes as well as elevation for rainfed areas. However, a possible La Niña emergence in the coming months would likely bring below-average precipitation to most parts of the country during the October 2024 to February 2025 winter wet season (See Climate Influences Pg. 3 and Regional Outlook Pg. 14). The forecast low rains as well as likely above-average daily temperatures are expected to lead to low snowpack development and rapid snow melting as well as subsequent reduced snowmelt runoff during the March to May 2025 spring period. If forecasts materialize, Afghanistan could experience a 6th consecutive year of below-average snow water volume (See Regional Outlook Pg. 14). This may result in lower than normal wheat planting activities in irrigated northern areas. Furthermore, groundwater resources continue to deteriorate as they are over-extracted during times of fluctuating and changing rainfall patterns, which has increased over the past few years. Above-average precipitation received in 2024 has not been sufficient to recharge the groundwater levels. In the main spring wheat producing areas of northern Kazakhstan, adequate water supply and moderate temperatures supported crops during the flowering and grain filling stages. Frequent rainfall hampered cropping activities at the beginning of the harvesting period until early September. However, the grain quality is not expected to reduce significantly, and yields are currently expected to be 39 percent above the five-year average. Additionally, planting of winter wheat is just beginning in the south under favourable conditions. In Pakistan, harvesting of main season rice and Kharif (summer) season maize is underway, and overall conditions are favourable as rains have been generally conducive for crop development despite localized crop losses from heavy July and August rains in parts of Balochistan and Sindh provinces. Rice production is expected to be well above-average due to a large sown area. Maize production is expected to be near-average as a reduced sown area from low farm-gate prices is likely to be offset by good yields. Additionally, planting of Rabi season wheat is just beginning, and the planted area is expected to be near-average. However, recent sharp price declines and the government’s decision to halt wheat procurement from the 2024 harvest, previously purchased at a minimum support price, have made wheat production less profitable for farmers.
Seasonal Forecast Alert: A likely weak to moderate La Niña is expected to bring below-normal precipitation to the region into early 2025, which would negatively impact snowpack development and groundwater recharge for winter crops
During late 2024 to early 2025, below-normal precipitation is anticipated in Southern and Central Asia. Below-normal precipitation is typically associated with weak-to-moderate La Nina conditions, which are forecast to develop (a 71-75% chance, according to the NOAA CPC Official ENSO forecast). As of October 29th, GEFS (Figure 1-left) and ECMWF forecasts indicate generally drier and warmer-than-average conditions across much of Afghanistan for the next several weeks. In contrast, above-average precipitation is forecast in areas farther north, including parts of Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan.
Sufficient November to December precipitation is important for the planting and establishment of winter crops and benefits snowpack development and groundwater recharge. Long-range seasonal precipitation outlooks from multiple ensemble forecasts—the WMO, NMME, and C3S—agree that there are elevated chances of below-normal precipitation during November 2024 to February 2025 (Figure 1-middle) and March to May 2025 (Figure 1-right). Models also forecast above-normal temperatures through May 2025. These conditions could hinder the development of winter snowpack and lead to faster melting of snow during the spring. Even during a forecast of warmer conditions, short-duration cold spells can occur and bring frost that negatively impacts standing crops.
If forecast conditions materialize, Afghanistan could experience a 6th year in a row of below-average snow water volume (see the October 2024 CM4EW). Winter precipitation is important for snowfed water resources used in irrigated agriculture, such as rivers and streams, though the use of groundwater has increased in recent years. Below-average precipitation could reduce annual groundwater recharge and also increase rates of extraction.
In Afghanistan, ongoing concern that precipitation amounts, timing, and distribution may be inadequate for rainfed wheat and other crops is likely to materialize. In cases when weather conditions do not support rainfed winter wheat, impacted areas can be used to cultivate spring crops if spring precipitation is average or above average, but long-range March to May 2025 forecasts suggest that below-normal precipitation is more likely. In some central-eastern areas, such as the Kabul-Indus basin, extreme rainfall during spring and summer likely increased groundwater levels, which could benefit irrigated crops. Close monitoring is recommended, due to negative impacts that recent La Niñas have had on rainfed winter and spring wheat in the region.
Figure 1. A 15-day precipitation anomaly forecast and 4-month and 3-month probabilistic precipitation forecasts
Left: Forecast next 15-day precipitation anomaly, based on the October 30th, 2024 GEFS that is bias-adjusted to CHIRPS (CHIRPS-GEFS). Middle: Probabilistic forecast for November 2024 to February 2025 precipitation tercile, based on October initial conditions. From the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Right: Probabilistic forecast for March to May 2025 precipitation tercile. Probabilities are derived from forecasts from seven North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) models (October initial conditions). Colors indicate the forecast probability of each category, based on 124 ensemble members from 7 models and a 1991-2020 baseline. White areas are climatologically dry or there is a high level of disagreement amongst forecasts.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Southeast Asia
Crop condition map synthesizing rice conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with their driver.
In southern Southeast Asia, dry-season rice is in the harvesting stage under mostly favourable conditions due to sufficient irrigation during the growing season. However, insect damage may slightly reduce yield outcomes in Brunei. Planting for wet-season rice is now underway in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Brunei, and prior flooding is hampering planting progress in Malaysia. In northern Southeast Asia, wet-season rice is in the late growing to harvesting stage. Heavy rains from Super Typhoon Yagi and other weather systems resulted in widespread flood damage, and final yields may be impacted in southern Myanmar, lowland areas of Laos, northern Viet Nam, and the Philippines. However, the overall impact was less than originally expected. As such, conditions have been upgraded to favourable in Thailand and Cambodia from last month’s wet concerns. Elsewhere in Southeast Asia, including Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, conditions are mostly favourable except in parts of eastern Bangladesh that experienced severe flooding this year.
In Indonesia, October was the fourth month of dry-season rice harvesting. The total harvested area reached 3.5 million hectares with a production of 17.9 million tonnes, which is 6.1 percent higher than the last dry season. Yield is also expected to improve due to sufficient irrigation use during the growing season. Despite increased rainfall amounts in October over some areas, no significant damage was reported. Additionally, planting of wet-season rice is just beginning. Planting progress is faster than last year, and crops are in the vegetative phase under favourable conditions. In Malaysia, more than half of the dry-season rice planted from March to July has now been harvested. While overall conditions are favourable with a yield similar to the previous year, there may be a slight decline in production due to the impacts of flooding in the north. Additionally, planting of wet-season rice is underway, and the recent flooding has slowed planting progress in northern areas, with only 22 percent of the planned cultivation area planted so far. In Brunei, about 90 percent of the dry-season rice has been harvested with a yield of 2.96 metric tonnes per hectare. While high precipitation and high temperatures throughout the season resulted in pest damage that could slightly reduce final yields, end of season conditions are favourable. Transplanting of wet-season rice has begun in rainfed areas under favourable conditions, while most of the irrigated areas are in the land preparation phase.
In the Philippines, wet-season rice planted from July to August is now in the heading to flowering stage, and while growing conditions are fair in most provinces, there is ongoing concern due to recent storm impacts and resulting damage. Six tropical cyclones have passed over the country from September to early October. Additionally, on October 21, Tropical Storm Trami (locally named Kristine) affected the entire Luzon and Visayas island regions, expanding to parts of Mindanao. These tropical cyclones in combination with the enhanced southwest monsoon brought heavy and intense rainfall, resulting in damage to agricultural areas. About 102.9 thousand hectares of paddy fields were damaged in Luzon and Visayas located in the north and centre of the country. In Thailand, wet-season rice is in the grain filling stage, and conditions have improved from last month’s concerns regarding prior impacts of monsoon rains and tropical disturbances. In October, rainfall was higher than normal, and some fields in the north and northwest were affected by floods, damaging about 102 thousand hectares accounting for 1 percent of the total planted area. However, the damage was not severe as the flood waters receded quickly, and some areas were harvested before the flooding. Final production and yield outcomes are expected to increase due to generally good growing conditions this season. In northern Viet Nam, wet-season rice is in the grain filling stage, and some provinces have started to harvest. There is ongoing concern regarding overly wet conditions as more than 200 thousand hectares of rice were affected by storms Yagi and Soulik, of which 75 thousand hectares were destroyed completely. While the season typically ends in September, many fields were reseeded after storms passed, and final conditions will be reported in November. In the south, harvesting of the main summer-autumn (wet-season) rice finalized in October under favourable conditions with an average yield of 5.89 tonnes per hectare. Additionally, the other wet season (autumn-winter and seasonal) rice is in the grain filling to harvesting stages under favourable conditions. In Laos, wet-season rice is in the grain filling to early harvesting stage with ongoing concern in lowland areas due to recent and ongoing wet conditions. In lowland areas, the final planted area was 732 thousand hectares, accounting for 96 percent of the national production plan. Harvesting of earlier planted crops has already concluded, accounting for 16 percent of the planted area. While sunlight levels were adequate for paddy growth this season, some areas along the Mekong River were impacted by heavy rainfall from late September that resulted in flooding and landslides, affecting 10 thousand hectares and damaging 5 thousand hectares. In upland areas, wet-season rice is also at the end of the grain filling to early harvesting stage. The final planted area was 69 thousand hectares, and about 47 percent of that has been harvested with good yield outcomes. In Myanmar, planting of wet-season rice finalized with a total area of 5.94 million hectares accounting for 97.8 percent of the national plan. Crops are mostly in the grain filling stage under favourable conditions, except in the Delta region where concern remains regarding the negative impacts of heavy rains and flooding from Typhoon Yagi in September. Monsoon flooding affected over 480 thousand hectares of the planted area, and approximately 280 thousand hectares have been damaged. Replanting operations have taken place for about half of the damaged fields, and the other half will be converted to winter crops. Harvesting of earlier planted crops began in October, and yield outcomes are generally fair but slightly lower than last year. In Cambodia, planting of wet-season rice finalized with a total of 2.94 million hectares accounting for 110 percent of the national plan. Additionally, harvesting of earlier planted crops has begun with an estimated yield of 3.9 tonnes per hectare. While severe rainfall resulted in flood damage last month, overall conditions have been upgraded to favourable as the affected area is recovering.
In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Yala season rice and maize finalized in October while planting of Maha season rice and maize is just beginning. While most provinces experienced heavy rainfall and strong winds and resultant flooding in mid-October, overall conditions remain favourable. In Nepal, rice crops are in vegetative to reproductive stage while wheat planting is just beginning, and agro-climatic conditions remain favourable for ongoing cropping activities. In Bangladesh, both main season sorghum and Aman season rice (35 percent of annual rice production) are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and conditions are favourable except in areas along the east where this year’s flooding is among the most severe in recent decades. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, harvesting of main season rice finalized in October, and near-average yields are expected following generally favourable weather outcomes this season.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Central America & Caribbean
Crop condition map synthesizing Primera maize end of season (EOS) conditions as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, national, and regional experts. Conditions that are other than favourable are labeled on the map with their driver.
In Central America, harvesting of Primera season cereals is complete in Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador, and the season ended slightly behind schedule due to dry and hot conditions that delayed planting activities. End of season conditions are generally favourable, though production is expected to be near to slightly below-average at the regional level as a result of erratic rainfall outcomes this season as well as high temperatures that negatively impacted yields and proliferated crop pests. Large producers are expecting near-average yields, except in southeastern Guatemala. Some large producers reported losses due to the erratic rains, and they also faced higher production costs as high temperatures resulted in pest proliferation which required pesticide application. Additionally, subsistence farmers experienced below to well below-average yields in all areas, particularly in Alta Verapaz region in central Guatemala and in areas without irrigation. In Honduras, dry conditions and elevated temperatures in May in the key producing central and eastern departments resulted in a one-month planting delay for the Primera season. Conversely, a shift to heavy rainfall in June was followed by adequate conditions in July that benefitted soil moisture levels and crop development. Maize production is expected to be above-average due to an increase in planted area at the national scale.
Segunda/Postrera season cereals are in the vegetative to reproductive stage, and there is emerging concern in Guatemala, northern Honduras, Nicaragua, and El Salvador regarding prior low and erratic rains from the previous season, followed by high temperatures in many areas as well as recent heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Nadine. Nadine impacted much of Guatemala, northern Honduras, and northern Nicaragua in mid-October and affected crops in the early development stages. Furthermore, the recent rains and high temperatures have proliferated pest and disease occurrence in southeastern Guatemala, western Nicaragua, and El Salvador. In Honduras, planting began in August with low rainfall amounts in the main producing Olancho and Santa Barbara departments located in the northern half of the country. Elsewhere, conditions remain favourable, though forecast above-average October to December rainfall will coincide with grain filling and maturation stages and could negatively impact yields.
In Haiti, harvesting of main season rice finalized in October under generally favourable conditions. Harvesting of Été season maize and beans is nearing completion, but there is some concern as dry conditions in September affected main producing areas. Rainfall distribution has been erratic, and limited precipitation during germination potentially hindered crop development. There are some areas with poor vegetation on the eastern coast of the North department as well as in some southern areas of the country. Additionally, forecast above-average rains during October to December as well as a high likelihood of a severe hurricane season increases the risk of crop damage during the maturation and harvesting period. In Cuba, harvesting of main season maize and rice continues under favourable conditions, and harvesting activities will finalize in November. However, Hurricane Oscar made landfall in eastern areas of the country on October 20 as a Category 1 hurricane, bringing severe rainfall and strong winds to affected areas which may impact harvesting outcomes. Less than three weeks later in early November, Tropical Storm Rafael impacted western areas of the country and intense rainfall associated with a trough affected central and eastern regions at the same time.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see description box on the bottom of the page.
Pie Chart Description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total regional production. The proportion within each national slice is colored according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat) and are a result of combining totals from multiple seasons to represent the total yearly national production. When conditions are other than favourable icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.
Information on crop conditions in the main production and export countries can be found in the Crop Monitor for AMIS, published November 7th, 2024.
Sources and Disclaimers: The Crop Monitor assessment is conducted by GEOGLAM with inputs from the following partners FEWS NET, JRC, WFP, ARC, AFSIS, MESA, ICPAC, FAO GIEWS, Applied Geosolutions and UMD. The findings and conclusions in this joint multi-agency report are consensual statements from the GEOGLAM experts, and do not necessarily reflect those of the individual agencies represented by these experts.