Global CM Report

Global Crop Monitor

No. 5: Published November 3rd, 2022

Conditions as of October 28th

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For previous reports visit the Archive.

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Crop Crop condition map synthesizing information for all Crop Monitor crops as of October 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas are based on a combination of inputs including remotely sensed data, ground observations, field reports, and national and regional experts. Regions that are in other than favourable conditions are labeled on the map with a symbol representing the crop(s) affected.

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Global Crop Overview

Global crop conditions at the end of October are overall positive for soybeans while mixed for wheat, maize, and rice. For wheat, there are areas of concern in eastern Australia, Argentina, the US, Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and Central Asia. For maize, parts of the US and Europe finish their seasons in poor conditions while sowing expands in the southern hemisphere. For rice, concern remains in parts of China, Pakistan, and select areas of Southeast Asia. For soybeans, harvesting is wrapping up in the Northern Hemisphere while sowing begins in the Southern Hemisphere. The remaining crops are covered in the CM4EW publication.

Global Climate Influences

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in the La Niña phase. La Niña conditions will likely continue into early 2023 (86% chance for November to January and 59% chance for January to March), according to the IRI/CPC. Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present and are expected through November. A transition towards neutral IOD is forecast for December (~55% chance), according to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. For further details see page 6.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

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In North America, winter wheat sowing is continuing in the US under dry conditions in the southern and central Great Plains. In Canada, winter wheat sowing continues under generally favourable conditions, despite dry conditions in the western Prairies. In South America, mixed conditions persist in the main producing areas of Argentina due to prolonged dryness and recent frost events during critical development stages. Harvesting has begun in the north with poor yields expected. In Brazil, conditions are favourable, despite excessive rainfall in some regions. There is an area increase in the total sown area compared to last year. In Uruguay, dry conditions are impacting the crop in the grain-filling stage. In Europe, sowing is progressing well in the EU across the northern countries and beginning in the Mediterranean countries. In the UK, sowing and emergence are ongoing under favourable conditions owing to good soil moisture and temperatures. In Ukraine, sowing is continuing under mixed conditions due to the ongoing war and areas of dryness in the south. In the Russian Federation, heavy rainfall from late September to early October has delayed sowing activities, particularly in the southern and central districts. In Türkiye, sowing is beginning under favourable conditions. In Central Asia, harvesting of spring wheat wraps up in Kazakhstan under favourable conditions except in the northeast. Sowing of winter wheat is underway in Afghanistan, southern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan under dry conditions. In East Asia, sowing of winter wheat is ongoing in China under favourable conditions. In Oceania, as harvest begins in Australia, yields are expected to be exceptionally high across Western Australia and South Australia; however, heavy rainfall and flooding in the east may reduce yields. In MENA, sowing has begun under favourable conditions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, harvesting continues in Lesotho, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe under generally favourable conditions. Dry conditions persist in Kenya, Tanzania, and southern Ethiopia while conflict impacts remain in northern Ethiopia.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In North America, harvesting is progressing in the US under a split of conditions, poor in the western and southern Corn Belt, while exceptional in Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. In Canada, harvest is wrapping up under favourable to exceptional conditions. In Central America & the Caribbean, harvesting is beginning in Mexico for the spring-summer season (larger season). The Segunda/Prostrera season crops are now in the vegetative to reproductive stage in El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. In Cuba, harvesting of main-season crops is continuing while in Haiti, harvesting of second-season crops begins. In South America, sowing of the spring-planted crop (smaller) is progressing in Brazil with a slight reduction in the total sown area expected compared to last year, due to a switch over to soybeans. In Argentina, a lack of surface moisture continues to delay the sowing of the early-planted crop (larger season), which is now expecting area reductions as the window for sowing is closing. Frost damage has occurred in northern Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe. In Europe, harvesting is wrapping up in the EU with largely below-average yields across much of Europe due to a very hot and dry season. In Ukraine, harvesting is now picking up with the cessation of rains in October. In the Russian Federation, harvesting is wrapping up under favourable to exceptional conditions. In Türkiye, harvesting is wrapping up. In South Asia, harvesting in India of the Kharif crop is ongoing under favourable conditions. In Pakistan, harvesting of the Kharif crop is continuing under mixed conditions due to the unprecedented monsoon rainfall and flooding. In Bangladesh, harvesting is underway for main-season crops. In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Yala season crops is wrapping as the sowing of Maha season crops begins. In East Asia, harvest is wrapping up under generally favourable conditions in China. In West Africa, harvesting activities are nearing completion in the south and beginning along the Sahel. In East Africa, harvesting of main-season crops continues in the north under mixed conditions, while sowing of the second-season crops begins in the south. In Southern Africa, sowing is just beginning in some places.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In East Asia, harvesting is wrapping up in China for the single-season rice under mixed conditions due to hot and dry weather earlier in the summer in the lower Yangtze River region. The late-season crops were also impacted by the summer weather. In Japan, harvesting is wrapping up under generally favourable conditions despite several storms impacting the south. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, harvesting of crops is wrapping up. In South Asia, conditions are favourable in India as the Kharif crop has reached maturity across most of the country and harvesting is progressing in the northern states. There is a slight reduction in the total sown area compared to last year, primarily in the eastern states. In Pakistan, harvesting of Kharif season crops continues under mixed conditions due to the unprecedented monsoon rain from mid-June that triggered one of the country’s worst floods in a decade. In Bangladesh, damage from tropical Storm Sitrang is still yet to be assessed for Aman season crops. In Nepal, harvesting will begin next month. In Sri Lanka, harvesting of the Yala season crop is wrapping up as the sowing of Maha season crops begins. In Southeast Asia, harvesting of wet-season rice is underway in Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Viet Nam, Cambodia, and the Philippines while harvesting of dry-season rice continues in Indonesia. Parts of Cambodia, the Philippines, and northern Thailand were affected by heavy rainfall. In the Americas, harvesting is wrapping up in the US. In Mexico, harvesting of the spring-summer crop is continuing. Harvesting is ongoing for second-season rice in Cuba and wrapping up for main-season rice in Haiti. In Brazil and Uruguay, sowing is continuing. In MENA, harvesting of summer-planted crops is continuing in Egypt. In Sub-Saharan Africa, conditions are generally favourable in western and central Africa except for in Mali and northern Nigeria due to continuing conflicts.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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North America, harvesting is wrapping up in the US under a mix of conditions. Most of the country is under generally favourable conditions; however, hot and dry weather earlier in the growing season has taken its toll on final yields, particularly in Kansas and Nebraska; conversely, parts of the eastern corn belt have above-average yields. In Canada, harvesting is wrapping up under exceptional conditions in Ontario and Quebec, while under favourable conditions in the Prairies. In South America, sowing is progressing in Brazil under favourable conditions owing to good soil moisture levels. An increase in the total sown area is expected compared to last year. In Asia, harvesting is wrapping up in China under favourable conditions. In India, harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Europe, hot and dry summer weather reduced yields in the EU, most notably across southern Europe. In Ukraine, harvesting is over halfway complete, albeit under the shadow of the ongoing war in the southern and eastern regions. In Sub-Saharan Africa, harvesting is wrapping up in Nigeria under favourable conditions.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

Global Climate Influences: La Niña Advisory and Likely Negative Indian Ocean Dipole

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in the La Niña phase. La Niña conditions will likely continue into early 2023 (86% chance for November to January and 59% chance for January to March), according to the IRI/CPC.

Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are present and are expected through November. A transition towards neutral IOD is forecast for December (~55% chance), according to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology.

Associated with the co-occurring La Niña and negative IOD conditions there are very high risks of severe drought impacts across the Horn of Africa, and heavy rainfall and flooding in Australia and Southeast Asia. Additionally, La Niña conditions for a third year in a row raises concerns about repeat dry conditions in eastern East Africa, southern South America, Central and Southern Asia, and southern North America, where multiple rainfall seasons have been below-average since late 2020. Historically, co-occurring La Niña and IOD events have led to very dry conditions in East Africa during boreal fall, and fall La Niñas are very often followed by poor spring rains as well, even if La Niña strength wanes.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Responsive imageLocation and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950,wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source:  FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC

Regional Outlooks

Both the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) and the long-term November-December-January 2022/2023 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) are influenced by the co-occurring La Niña phase, and a Negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

In North America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation in the US across the Southeast and parts of the northern Great Plains. Canada is likely to also see below-average rainfall across the eastern of the Prairies. There is likely above-average precipitation in the US southwest. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across central and eastern North America. The long-term November-December-January 2022/2023 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) shows possible below-average precipitation across the majority of the central and southern US, while above-average precipitation in the US Pacific Northwest and across the Canadian Prairies. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across all of North America, especially in the southern and central US along with eastern Canada. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlook for the United States.

In Central America & the Caribbean, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over Mexico, central Nicaragua, and eastern Cuba. During this time, temperatures are likely to be below-average in the northwest of Mexico. The long-term November-December-January 2022/2023 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely continued below-average precipitation across Mexico, while above-average precipitation across Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in Mexico and Cuba, while below-average in Costa Rica and Panama.

Responsive imageFigure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 November 2022, issued on October 28th, 2022. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom

South America, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation in parts of eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, northern and northeast Brazil, and northwest Argentina. Below-average precipitation is likely over southeast Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, western Bolivia, northwest and southern Brazil, Uruguay, southern Paraguay, northeast Argentina, and southern Chile. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in Argentina and southern Chile, while below average in parts of Brazil, eastern Paraguay, and southern Bolivia. The long-term November-December-January 2022/2023 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely above-average precipitation across northwest Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, and northern and central Brazil. Below-average precipitation is likely across western Peru, southern Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina, and southern Chile. During that time, temperatures will likely be above-average across Argentina and below-average across eastern Brazil. For further details, see the CM4AMIS Regional Outlooks for Argentina and Brazil.

In Europe, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average rainfall over Portugal, western and central Spain, southeast Poland, Hungary, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, Bulgaria, Greece, southern Belarus, Ukraine, Moldovia, northern and western Türkiye, eastern and western regions of the Russian Federation, and Georgia. During this time temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of Europe. The long-term November-December-January 2022/2023 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) predicts possible below-average precipitation in Portugal, northwest Spain, western France, Türkiye southeast Ukraine, southern Russian Federation, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. During the long-term forecast, temperatures are forecast to be likely above-average across all of Europe.

Responsive imageFigure 2: IRI SubX Temperature Biweekly Probability Forecast for 5 – 18 November 2022, issued on October 28th, 2022. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom

In MENA, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely above-average precipitation in Iraq, and central Iran, while below-average precipitation in Morocco and northern Algeria. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in Morocco, northern Algeria, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, and southern Iran, while below-average in Egypt and eastern Lybia. The long-term November-December-January 2022/2023 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) predicts likely below-average precipitation in Syria, Lebanon, northern Jordan, northern Iraq, and Iran. During this time temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the region, most notably in Egypt, eastern Iraq, and southern Iran. For further details, see the CM4EW seasonal forecast alert for East Africa.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation over central Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, northern Côte d’Ivoire, northern Ghana, Togo, Benin, Nigeria, Cameroon, southern Chad, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, southern Ethiopia, western Kenya, northern Uganda, southeast Tanzania, northern Mozambique, southwest Angola, northwest Namibia, and eastern Madagascar. Above-average precipitation is likely over the southern Republic of Congo, southern Democratic Republic of the Congo, northern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, central South Africa, Lesotho, and western Madagascar. For the long-term November-December-January 2022/2023 forecast (Figures 3 & 4), precipitation is likely to be below-average over Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, southern DRC, northern Zambia, Malawi, and northern Mozambique, while above-average over Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, and southern Madagascar. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most countries except for Botswana and South Africa. For further details, see the CM4EW seasonal forecast alert for East Africa and the regional outlooks for East Africa and Southern Africa.

Responsive imageFigure 3: Probabilistic forecast for most-likely November-December-January (NDJ) 2022/2023  rainfall tercile, based on September conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble

In Central Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation in western Kazakhstan, western Uzbekistan, and western Turkmenistan, while above-average precipitation over eastern Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan. During this time, temperatures are likely to be below-average in Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, eastern Uzbekistan, and eastern Afghanistan. The long-term November-December-January 2022/2023 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) predicts likely below-average precipitation across the entire region except for northern Kazakhstan. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the region, particularly in eastern Afghanistan and southern Tajikistan. For further details see the CM4EW seasonal forecast alert.

In South Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation in southern India while above-average in northern Pakistan and northern India. During this time, temperatures are likely to be below-average in northern Pakistan, northern and southern India, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. The long-term November-December-January 2022/2023 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) indicates likely above-average precipitation in southern India, while below-average across most of Pakistan, northern India, and Nepal. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in northern Pakistan, northwest and northeast India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh, while below-average in central and southern India.

In East Asia, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation in parts of eastern Mongolia, northeast and southern China, southern Japan, and the eastern Russian Federation, while above-average precipitation is likely in northern and central China. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average over central and southern China, southern Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, while below-average in southwest China. The long-term November-December-January 2022/2023 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) suggests likely below-average precipitation over China, the Republic of Korea, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, and southern Japan. During that time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the entire region.

In Southeast Asia & Oceania, the two-week forecast (Figures 1 & 2) indicates likely below-average precipitation in northern Viet Nam, northern Laos, northern Thailand, northeast Myanmar, and southern New Zealand, while above-average precipitation over the Philippines, southern Viet Nam, southern Laos, Cambodia, eastern Indonesia, and northern and eastern Australia. During this time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in most of the region except for most of Australia, which is likely to see below-average temperatures. The long-term November-December-January 2022/2023 forecast (Figures 3 & 4) precipitation is predicted to be above-average across southern Viet Nam, Cambodia, the Philippines, southern Indonesia, and Eastern Australia, while below-average in northern Viet Nam, northern Laos, and northern Indonesia. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average in Myanmar, the Philippines, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and New Zealand, while below-average in southern Thailand, Cambodia, southern Viet Nam, and southern and eastern Australia.

Responsive imageFigure 4: Probabilistic forecast for most-likely November-December-January (NDJ) 2022/2023 temperature tercile, based on September conditions. The white colour indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts. Source: WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble