EW CM report

In southern West Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is underway in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo, Benin, and Nigeria while planting and development continues in Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Guinea, and the Central African Republic. Cultivation of second season maize crops is underway along the Gulf of Guinea. In the northern Sahelian zone, planting and development of main season cereals continues in Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and western Chad. Mostly average to above-average April to August rainfall performance has contributed to generally favourable agro-climatic conditions throughout the subregion. In bimodal southern areas along the Gulf of Guinea, average to above-average production is expected for the main season harvest, particularly in southern Benin where above-average yields are likely. Conversely, rainfall deficits in parts of the Sahelian zone in July may contribute to localized crop production shortfalls in southern Mali, northern Nigeria, and potentially other localized areas that experienced deficits. Additionally, concern remains in the conflict-affected areas of central Mali, northern Burkina Faso, western Niger, northeastern Nigeria, western Chad, the Far North and Southwestern regions of Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. There is also ongoing concern regarding socio-economic challenges relating to inter-communal conflict and limited resources in northwest and north-central Nigeria.

In Niger, a timely onset of the seasonal rains was followed by average to above-average rainfall amounts in most producing areas, with the exception of localized areas of Dosso, Tahoua and Tillaberi regions located in the west where erratic rainfall distribution resulted in water deficits and some damages. However, heavy rains and floods have impacted many parts of the country since the beginning of the rainy season in June, and average to above-average rainfall is expected through September. Additionally, high prices are resulting in limited fertilizer access, particularly in Maradi region located in the south-centre. In Chad, average to above-average cumulative rainfall received since the start of the seasonal rains in May has benefitted soil moisture conditions and crop establishment, except in localized southern areas where delayed onset of rains and prolonged dry spells resulted in planting delays and crop wilting. Furthermore, the use of mechanized agriculture has resulted in a slight increase in planted area in Ouaddaï and Sila regions located in the east, whereas limited availability of equipment and inputs led to a decrease in Logone Oriental and Mandoul regions located in the south. In Nigeria, northcentral and northeastern regions experienced significant rainfall deficits and extended dry spells in July and August, leading to crop wilting in localized areas of the northeast and prompting some farmers to replant in late July. In Cameroon, crops mostly benefitted from average to above-average July to August rainfall. While the delayed onset of the June rains and erratic performance has led to delayed flowering in some localized fields, the provision of subsidized fertilizers is expected to boost overall crop production in the Far North region, leading to near-average cereal yields.

In the Middle East and North Africa, wheat harvesting finalized in June and July under mixed conditions due to erratic and insufficient rainfall in many areas with below-average yields in central, east, and northeastern Morocco, northwest and central-eastern Algeria, north-central Tunisia, the main producing wheat governorate of Hassakeh in northeastern Syria, northwestern Iraq, and north-central and northeastern parts of Iran. Elsewhere, end of season conditions were favourable. In Egypt, summer-planted rice is in the vegetative to reproductive stage while planting of Nili season (Nile Flood) rice continues, and overall conditions remain favourable. In Iran, prospects for rice crops are generally favourable in the main producing regions of Mazandaran and Gilan located in the north as well as in Khuzestan located in the centre-west. Conversely, planted area has decreased in Golestan located in the northeast due to a lack of irrigation water.

In Southern Africa, wheat crops continue to develop in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho under favourable conditions, and harvesting will begin in September in Zimbabwe. In South Africa, above-normal rainfall during the summer and the winter rainy seasons supported dryland and irrigated production of wheat across the major production areas. The Western Cape received above-normal rainfall from December through June, followed by near-normal rainfall in July and August. Widespread precipitation in May also benefitted soil moisture over large parts of the interior region. Elsewhere, above-normal rainfall during the last three years has supported major river systems and irrigation water supply.

In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, planting and development of main season cereals continues while harvesting of second season maize finalized in August. Overall conditions are favourable except in the north where erratic rainfall since July has resulted in below-average soil moisture and vegetation conditions, though enhanced rains in August led to some improvement.

In Central and South Asia, wheat harvesting is complete or nearing completion throughout Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Mongolia. Yield declines are expected in Afghanistan and southern Kazakhstan, and concern remains in Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan due to below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures in most areas throughout the growing season, with particularly dry conditions in central and northeastern areas and hot conditions in most cropping areas. A likely warmer than normal spring increases the risk of snowmelt limiting the availability of irrigation water supply later in the season (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13). Conversely, favourable yield outcomes are expected in Tajikistan and Mongolia where rainfall performance has been adequate. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat harvesting finalized in the south while spring wheat harvesting continues, and generally below-average rainfall and soil moisture levels are likely to result in yield declines despite above-average rainfall in some north, south, and eastern areas in July and August (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13). In Afghanistan, the wheat harvest has now concluded with below-average cropping outcomes for cultivated area, yield, and production due to the prolonged dry conditions. Conversely, instances of heavy rainfall since late July impacted Nangarhar, Kunar, Laghman, and Nuristan in the east, Kabul, Parwan, Wardak, and Ghazni in the centre, and Zabul in the south. The eastern area benefited from monsoon rains, supporting the growth of maize and rice, though the depletion of unregulated groundwater reserves is impacting irrigated standing crops (See Regional Outlook Pg. 13). In Mongolia, conditions are favourable except in some localized western areas where below-average precipitation resulted in wheat crop losses. In Pakistan, Kharif (summer) season maize and rice crops are in vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from mid-September, and overall conditions are favourable, including in the main producing Punjab province.

Regional Outlook: Below-average rainfall performance and hot temperatures this season likely to be followed by above-average rainfall and temperatures through Feb 2024

The 2023 crop growing season was characterized by below-average precipitation (Figure 1-left) and above-average temperatures (Figure 1 middle-left) in most areas. In central and northeastern portions of the region, the spring-summer was extremely dry, with large areas registering the driest April-to-August season in the last ~40 years. Summertime heat began early in 2023, with heat waves during June and from mid-July to early August. Frequent very high temperatures (Figure 1 middle-left) led to severe crop damage in areas with already water-stressed conditions.

In Kazakhstan, below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures have been a concern for yield and production. In April, the three regions leading in wheat production—Kostanay, North Kazakhstan, and Akmola—reported surface and subsurface soil moisture levels were higher than the previous year, but above-normal temperatures rapidly dried out soils. In crop growing areas where the impacts of ongoing dry conditions were already a concern, rainfall conditions during late July to late August were mixed. Below-average rainfall occurred in western and northern areas (Zapadno-kazachstanskaya, Akmolinskaya, and Severo-kazachstanskaya) and in portions of the southeast, based on IMERG-Late data. Above-average rainfall was observed in some northern areas (Kustanayskaya) and in portions of the east and south. In summer rainfall-receiving areas of Kyrgyzstan and southeastern Afghanistan, late-July to late-August rainfall was below-average.

There are elevated chances of above-normal fall and winter precipitation across the region associated with El Niño. According to several multi-model ensembles, including the WMO forecast for October 2022 to February 2023 (Figure 1 middle-right), and the NMME and C3S, there are 50-60+% chances of above-normal precipitation. Above-normal temperatures are also forecast through February (Figure 1-right). In addition to the positive aspects of forecast above-average precipitation, there are also hazards to consider. A warmer-than-normal spring could increase risks of rapid snow melt, and locust invasions could be a threat to wheat production in 2024.

The forecasted above-average precipitation in Afghanistan’s major crop production areas in the north and northeast, an area where models tend to predict relatively high chances, raises hope that better conditions might be ahead and may aid recovery from three years of drought. Groundwater has been seriously impacted by low precipitation and high extraction for sustaining agriculture, and a wet season would help recharge both surface and groundwater levels. However, given the prolonged dry conditions, early depletion of snowmelt this year, and below-average streamflow forecast into November, it may take time for water availability to substantially improve, and that could potentially impact the planting of irrigated winter crops.

Figure 1. A seasonal precipitation anomaly, heat damage in croplands, and 5-month probabilistic forecasts for precipitation and temperature. Left: Percent of average precipitation for April 1st to August 25th, 2023, based on NASA IMERG-Late v6 data and a 2001-2020 baseline. Middle: For spring cropping areas, the number of days this season, from April 1st to August 20th, in which the daily temperature max exceeded 38°C/100°F. Based on NOAA CPC data. Image from the USDA FAS Crop Explorer. The right two panels are WMO probabilistic forecasts for October to February 2024 precipitation (middle-right) and 2-m temperature (right), based on models initialized in August. This image is from the WMO Lead Centre Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

In northern Southeast Asia, planting of wet-season rice is nearing completion, and the total planted area is forecast to decrease slightly as the delayed start of the rainy season resulted in a shortage of agricultural water. Crops are now in the tillering to harvesting stage, and growing conditions are generally favourable except in Thailand where the water shortage is significantly impacting crops. Additionally, heavy rainfall and typhoons resulted in flooding in some areas, but crop damage was minimal. In Indonesia, planting of dry-season rice continued in August. Farmers are still preparing their fields following the end of the wet-season harvest in July, and overall growing conditions are favourable. The current total planted area is 3.9 million hectares, which is 6.1 percent lower than last year. Harvesting activities for earlier planted crops continued into the second month in August with a current harvested area of 1.7 million hectares, which is slightly delayed compared to last year, and yields are near-normal despite less precipitation received during the growing season. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is in the maturing to harvesting stage under favourable conditions despite the passage of three tropical cyclones in July. In late July, Super Typhoon Doksuri (locally named Egay) made landfall twice in the northern tip of the country and triggered floods in parts of Central Luzon. The storm affected most regions of the country, causing damage to infrastructure and the agricultural sector. Around 115 thousand hectares of paddy fields were affected with a volume loss of 42.8 thousand metric tons, according to a report from the Department of Agriculture. In Thailand, wet-season rice is in the tillering stage, and approximately 55 percent of the expected area has been planted. Total planted area is expected to decrease from last year due to ongoing drought conditions as rainfall received from May to July was less than the previous year in all regions due to the presence of El Niño conditions (See Special Alert Pg. 4). A continuation of poor precipitation performance in August is expected to reduce the number of tillers, raising concern for a high risk of damage from pests and disease. As a result, yield and total production are expected to decrease compared to last year. In northern Viet Nam, the main wet-season (seasonal) rice is in the seeding stage while the other wet-season (summer-autumn) rice is in the young panicle forming stage, and growing conditions are favourable due to adequate irrigation preparation. In the south, the main wet-season (summer-autumn) rice is in the harvesting stage with a harvested area of 0.49 million hectares out of 1.73 million hectares planted. Yield is forecast to be slightly higher than last year due to warm weather and better irrigation preparation. The other wet-season (autumn-winter) rice is in the growing stage under favourable conditions. However, heavy rains from late July triggered flooding and landslides in several areas, resulting in 2,900 hectares of rice being submerged, according to the August 2 European Commission report. Conversely, forecast below-average precipitation through October over central and southern areas may curb production of the wet-season (summer-autumn) crop and may impact irrigation water availability for the 2024 dry-season (winter-spring) crop. In lowland areas of Laos, planting of wet-season rice has been completed in all regions with a total planted area of 763 thousand hectares, and crops are now in the young panicle-forming stage. Weather conditions and irrigation water supply were generally adequate in August, though some localized areas were impacted by heavy rains that resulted in flooding and landslides. The total affected area is about 30 thousand hectares and the damaged area is 1.2 thousand hectares. Conversely, below-average precipitation in the central-west since late April may affect localized production outcomes. In upland areas, wet-season rice is in the young panicle-forming stage with a total planted area of 100 thousand hectares, and conditions are favourable despite some reports of pest outbreaks. In Myanmar, planting of wet-season rice reached its peak period in August with favourable monsoon rains received. Planting progress has reached 4.5 million hectares accounting for 73.8 percent of the national plan of 6.07 million hectares and is slightly faster than last year. Additionally, monsoon flooding impacted several areas, particularly in the lower and river basin regions. About 22 thousand hectares of planted crops are reported to have been affected by the flooding, and over 11 thousand hectares have been damaged. Replanting operations are underway for 560 hectares of damaged fields. Despite flooding impacts, most crops are now in the tillering to panicle-forming stage under favourable conditions. Furthermore, the August to October monsoon season is expected to be below-average in the north. In Cambodia, earlier planted wet-season rice is in the grain filling to harvesting stage under favourable conditions. Planted area reached around 2.57 million hectares accounting for 98 percent of the national planting plan. Heavy rains in early August impacted around 3,000 hectares of paddy fields. Around 20 percent of the planted area has been harvested with a current yield estimated at around 4.38 tons per hectare. Overall yield is expected to increase slightly compared to the previous year if weather conditions remain stable. In Sri Lanka, harvesting of Yala season rice and maize crops is beginning under mixed conditions with concern in Matara district located in the Southern Province and Kurunagala district located in the North Western Province as below-average rainfall in the first half of 2023 resulted in drought-like conditions and water shortages in some reservoirs. According to the August 9 European Commission report, around 50,000 farmers were affected by the lack of irrigation water, and farmers in the southwest have been protesting and demanding water access for crops. In Nepal, maize harvesting is underway while rice crops continue to develop for harvest from November, and conditions remain favourable. In Bangladesh, harvesting of Aus season rice (smaller producing season) finalized in August while planting of Boro season rice (larger producing season) as well as sorghum crops is underway, and overall conditions are favourable. However, heavy rains in early August triggered river overflows and flash flooding in the Chittangon Division located in the southeast. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, maize harvesting is underway while rice crops continue to develop for harvest from September, and overall conditions remain favourable with well above-average crop biomass as a result of good rainfall received.