EW CM report

In West Africa, planting of main season cereals is underway in bimodal and Soudano-Guinean zones with localized areas entering the vegetative to reproductive stage in Cote d’ivoire, Ghana, Benin, Togo, Nigeria, and Cameroon. Harvesting of second season rice finalized in Mauritania while planting is underway in central Nigeria. Agro-climatic conditions remain favourable for crop development throughout the subregion except in central Mali and Guinea-Bissau where delayed rainfall onset is delaying planting activities. Additionally, persistent conflict continues to impact agricultural activities in central Mali, northeastern Nigeria, southwestern Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. Ongoing socio-economic challenges relating to limited resources continue to impact agricultural production in north and north-central Nigeria. Additionally, based on CHIRPS total rainfall from April 1st to May 20th, the southern part of the subregion from southern Guinea to the Central African Republic has received totals ranging from 100 mm to more than 400 mm in eastern Liberia and southwestern Cameroon.  Conversely, rainfall totals are less than 75 mm in the Sahelian band.

In the Middle East and North Africa, wheat harvesting has started in Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt while crops continue to develop elsewhere in the subregion. Crop conditions remain mixed with below-average yields expected in large areas of Morocco, most of Algeria and Tunisia, northeastern Syria, and northwestern Iraq. Near total crop failure is expected in localized areas of northeastern Morocco, northern Algeria, and north-central Tunisia due to persistent seasonal drought and high temperatures. Furthermore, concern remains throughout Libya and Syria where ongoing conflict and socio-economic challenges continue to impact crop outcomes. Conversely, yields are expected to be near-average in Egypt due to sufficient irrigation water supply, and conditions remain favourable in most parts of Iraq and Iran.

In Morocco, wheat prospects remain poor due to a combination of seasonal drought and above-average temperatures that have adversely affected the vegetative to reproductive stages, accelerating crop senescence. The Oriental region located in the northeast is the most affected, with crop failure likely across much of the region. Although yield and total production prospects are poor, being 17 percent and 25 percent below the five-year average respectively, they are not as severe as the results observed in the previous season, according to the May 22 JRC MARS Bulletin. In Algeria, prolonged drought and high temperatures continue to adversely affect the majority of the cereal producing regions, except in the northeast, and have impacted crops during the critical flowering and grain-filling development stages. Rainfall has been limited since the start of March, with most regions experiencing record low rainfall accumulations. Temperatures have been consistently above the long-term average, particularly in western areas during late-April. Some regions, such as Mascara, Saida, Oum El Bouaghi, Khenchela, and Tebessa, face the significant possibility of complete crop failure. Both yield and production are forecast to be well below the five-year average at 24 and 45 percent lower respectively, according to the May 22 JRC MARS Bulletin. In Tunisia, wheat crops have been severely affected by persistent drought conditions, with rainfall occurring only in sporadic and low-intensity events, mostly in early March and the start of April. Cumulative precipitation was the lowest on record in most central and northern regions where the majority of cereal production occurs, resulting in rainfall deficits ranging from 65 to 80 percent below the long-term average. Regions such as El Kef, Siliana, and Zaghouan face a high probability of crop failure, while all other regions, except Bizerte, have observed below-average biomass accumulation. Yield is forecast to be 19 percent below the five-year average, and production is forecast to be 28 percent below-average, according to the May 22 JRC MARS Bulletin. In Libya, the country experienced moderate fluctuations in daily temperatures while rainfall remained generally below the long-term average, except in Nuqat al Khams and Darnah where it was 10 percent above the long-term average. Biomass accumulation is above-average in Al Aziziyah, Jabal al Akhdar, and Darnah agricultural areas and near-average in other regions. Both yield and production are expected to be relatively near-normal. In Egypt, conditions remain favourable for irrigated crops in the Nile valley and Delta regions, with sufficient irrigation water supply for adequate crop growth. Yield and production forecasts are expected to be close to the five-year average.

In Syria, near-average rainfall since March has resulted in above-average crop biomass across the country, including in the main cereal producing governorate of Hassakeh. While low rainfall from December to early March resulted in below-average crop biomass in Hassakeh, improved rains since mid-March has led to partial crop recovery. As a result, production prospects for Hassakeh remain below-average but above drought stricken 2022 levels. However, lingering pockets of conflict and related socio-economic challenges continue to impact cropping activities and outcomes throughout the country. In Iraq, prospects are above-average across most of the country due to good rains received since the start of the season in November 2022. However, in the southern half of Ninewa, which is the main cereal producing governorate, dry conditions from December to February negatively affected rainfed winter cereals. In Iran, conditions are generally favourable except in the northeastern regions of Golestan and Khorasan, the northwestern region of Ardebil, and to a lesser extent, the central regions of Esfahan and Hamedan where crop biomass is below-average due to persistent dry conditions. In northern Golestan, the extent of the planted area is reduced compared to the previous year as a result of the lowest total rainfall received in the last 32 years. Planting of rice crops is now underway, and flooding of rice fields has begun in Mazandaran and Gilan, the two primary rice-producing regions. However, in Golestan, there is a planting delay compared to previous years.

In Southern Africa, harvesting of main season cereals is complete or nearing completion in Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, and Lesotho under mixed conditions. Production prospects remain favourable and the same as the previous month in northern Angola, most of Zambia, northern Zimbabwe, central Malawi, northwest and western Mozambique, west and central Madagascar, and Lesotho. Conditions have improved from previous dry concerns in central Angola, eastern Zimbabwe, and northern Malawi and from previous storm damage in Mozambique, and conditions have been upgraded to exceptional in South Africa due to high yield and production expectations. Conversely, crop yields are expected to be well below-average in southern Malawi due to severe crop damage from Cyclone Freddy as well as in northern Namibia due to dry and hot conditions throughout much of the season. Additionally, yields are likely to be below-average in northwest and south-central Zambia due to impacts of heavy rains and waterlogging as well as in southern Angola, Botswana, western Zambia, and northeastern Mozambique due to dry conditions throughout the season and ongoing conflict in Cabo Delgado.

In Angola, crops along the south are unlikely to recover from persistent seasonal dryness. While vegetation conditions are near-average in Benguela, below-average production is likely in Namibe due to poor rainfall that is likely to persist into the dry season. Conversely, conditions remain favourable in the north and have improved from previous dry concerns in the centre. Despite uneven rainfall in the northern highlands, the overall season performance is near-average, indicating favourable production prospects. However, in Huila, erratic rainfall and Fall Armyworm (FAW) impacts in some western areas may lead to a slight reduction in final production. In Namibia, significant production declines are expected due to persistent dry and hot conditions throughout the season, and crops have failed across much of the northern cropping area. Large parts of the country, including Kharas, Hardap, Erongo, Kunene, Omusati, Oshana, Oshikoto regions and western Omaheke, are facing severe to extreme drought after the October to April 2022-2023 rainy season resulted in below-average rainfall. Notably, Ondangwa in the north is experiencing its third consecutive failed rainy season since 2019, and Karasburg in the south is experiencing drought after two years of above-average rainfall. In Botswana, crops are unlikely to recover from dry and hot conditions throughout most of the season.  In Zambia, conditions along the northwest and south-central regions have degraded and crops are unlikely to recover from mid to late-season heavy rains that adversely affected crop growth. Additionally, crops in the west were impacted by erratic rainfall and overall below-average performance this season. Elsewhere, conditions remain favourable. National production is expected at 3.2 million tonnes, slightly above the five-year average. In Zimbabwe, conditions are favourable, and crops have recovered in provinces impacted by previous dry concerns, including Matabeleland North, Matabeleland South, and Masvingo. National production is expected at an above-average level of 2.3 million tonnes. In Malawi, national maize production is expected to be below-average due to the impacts of Tropical Cyclone Freddy in the Southern Region combined with limited access to fertilizers which had significant negative impacts on crop yields. The storm impacted all districts in the Southern Region, with Phalombe district being the most impacted. Conversely, conditions remain favourable in the Central Region, and conditions in the Northern Region have improved from previous dry concerns. In Mozambique, below-average yield and production outcomes are expected in Cabo Delgado region located in the northeast due to persistent conflict and dry conditions. While a larger number of households were able to participate in the agricultural season compared to previous seasons, the May 18 FNSWG Food and Nutrition Security bulletin indicates that ongoing conflict is likely to impact seasonal outcomes. Additionally, despite irregular rainfall during the season, cumulative totals are near-normal. Elsewhere, conditions have improved from previous concerns relating to the passage of Cyclone Freddy in February and March. In Madagascar, conditions in the centre, west, and south remain favourable, and crops in the east have recovered from persistent below-average conditions. In South Africa, harvesting of main season maize crops finalized under favourable to exceptional conditions. Yields are expected to be above to well above-average due to beneficial weather conditions during the 2022/23 summer and relatively dry and warm conditions through much of autumn. In Lesotho, conditions are favourable with near-average yields expected. However, a reduction in production is possible due to reduced planted area and limited access to inputs. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, main season sorghum and second season maize crops are in vegetative to harvesting stages, and overall conditions are favourable except in the east where heavy rains impacted South Kivu region in the first dekad of May, resulting in flooding, mudslides, and infrastructure damage. In the southeast, heavy rains in Tanganyika from late April to early May might have damaged crops that were ready for harvest. Furthermore, this season saw less participation in agricultural activities due to ongoing conflict in Tanganyika. Elsewhere in the southwest, near-average production is expected.

Wheat planting is underway in Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, and Lesotho for harvest from September, and overall conditions are favourable. In South Africa, recent precipitation over the winter rainfall region will support dryland production. Additionally, above-normal precipitation during the 2022/23 summer rainfall season together with recent rains over the interior will benefit irrigated production over the summer rainfall region.

In Central and South Asia, wheat harvesting is now underway in Afghanistan and Pakistan while crops continue to develop in Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Mongolia. Persistent dry conditions have degraded crop prospects in Afghanistan, and concern remains in parts of Uzbekistan and throughout Turkmenistan. Elsewhere, growing conditions remain favourable.

In Kazakhstan, the minor winter wheat crop planted in October 2022 in the southern regions will be harvested between June and August, and favourable weather has contributed to near-average vegetation conditions. However, night frosts may affect crop development, particularly in Almaty region. Planting of the main spring wheat crop began in May in the northern provinces, with harvesting expected to begin in mid-August. In Uzbekistan, crop biomass is above-average in most regions except in Kashkadarya in the south. In Turkmenistan, despite irrigation use, crop biomass is well below-average, likely due to the country receiving the lowest rainfall amounts in the last 32 years for the October to late May period. In Afghanistan, winter wheat harvesting activities have completed in the south and east and are progressing elsewhere. While conditions for both irrigated and rainfed crops are better than last year, concern remains for areas impacted by below-average rains and high temperatures, particularly in lowland rainfed areas. According to the May 23 FEWS NET Seasonal Monitor, seasonal precipitation from October 2022 through May 2023 has been below-average across much of the country, except in localized central, south, and eastern areas where precipitation was near-average. Below-normal soil moisture conditions have resulted in significant moisture stress across the wheat belt in north, west, and central areas. Additionally, snow water volumes in eastern basins are below-average, depleting earlier than usual due to above-average temperatures. The NMME and C3S forecasts predict above-average temperatures for June to August 2023, except in some central and southern regions. Conversely, a likely shift to El Niño suggests above-average precipitation for the 2023-2024 wet season (See Climate Influences Pg. 3).  Furthermore, the production of rice and maize is expected to be below-average this year, particularly in downstream areas, due to reduced area under cultivation and potential water disputes. In Pakistan, harvesting of the main Rabi wheat crop is complete in most parts of the country except in some regions in the north. Despite a slight reduction in planted area, wheat production is expected to be marginally higher than the previous year. Land preparation is underway for maize crops to be harvested in September.

In northern Southeast Asia, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion under generally favourable conditions, except in western Myanmar where Cyclone Mocha brought heavy rainfall and flooding in low-lying areas. Final dry-season rice production for northern Southeast Asia is estimated to be near-average as a result of increased planted area and near-average yields due to sufficient irrigation water supply and favourable weather throughout the season. Wet-season rice is in the field preparation to seeding stage, and planting activities are delayed due to the late rainy season. Cumulative precipitation amounts from early April to late May are generally below-average, particularly in southern Myanmar and in and around Thailand. Weather models indicate a shift towards wetter than normal conditions for the June to August period in mainland areas and drier than normal conditions in southern areas and Indonesia. However, below-normal June to August (JJA) rainfall outcomes during some El Niño events in Thailand and other mainland areas may impact this season’s rainfall outcomes, and forecast above-normal temperatures throughout the season may impact crop development. Additionally, total wet-season rice planted area is forecast to decrease compared to last year for mainland areas due to irrigation water supply shortages and increasing costs of agricultural inputs, including fertilizer, pesticides, and fuel.

In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season rice is progressing under favourable conditions. Total harvested area is 5.1 million hectares, and the yield is expected to be good due to sufficient irrigation water supply and sunlight during the flowering phase. Sowing of dry-season rice is continuing slowly as farmers wait for additional rainfall. In the Philippines, dry-season rice harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. About 4.78 million metric tons were produced, an increase of 5.2 percent compared to last year due to less occurrences of pests and diseases, sufficient rainfall, and increased usage of high-yielding varieties. Sowing of wet-season rice is beginning under favourable conditions. In Thailand, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion with good yields and an increase in total sown area compared to last year, which is expected to increase production 23 percent. Land preparation is now underway for wet-season rice, and planting will begin with the start of the seasonal rains which are expected to occur by late May. However, the planted area is expected to decrease due to water supply shortages as well as increasing costs of agricultural inputs, including fertilizer, pesticides, and fuel. As a result, some farmers may opt to replace paddy areas with other crops such as cassava, which is highly cost effective and can tolerate drought. In Viet Nam, conditions are favourable across the country for dry-season rice (winter-spring rice) as harvesting wraps up in the South. The harvested area has reached 1.57 million hectares out of 1.88 million hectares planted. The yield of harvested rice is 7.12 tons per hectare, a 1.6 percent increase compared to the previous year as crops benefitted from favourable weather conditions and less saline intrusion. Sowing of wet-season (summer-autumn rice) is at the peak in the Mekong River Delta, with a sown area of 0.51 million hectares. In Laos, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion under favourable conditions. The final harvested area is estimated at 96 thousand hectares, including 432 thousand tons produced with a yield of 4.5 tons per hectare. Land preparation for wet-season rice is now underway with a national planting plan of 823 thousand hectares. However, currently limited rainfall and low irrigation water supply are delaying preparation activities. In Myanmar, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion under generally favourable conditions, except in western areas impacted by Cyclone Mocha. Harvesting progress has reached over 675 thousand hectares, accounting for about 64.2 percent of the total planted area of 1.05 million hectares. Most of the harvested area is in the Delta region, and 3.4 million tons have been produced with a yield of 5.05 tons per hectare. The yield is near-average and higher than the previous year due to generally favourable growing conditions. However, on May 14, Cyclone Mocha formed in the Bay of Bengal before crossing the coast between Cox’s Bazar in southeastern Bangladesh and Kyaukpyu township on the western coast of Myanmar as an extremely severe cyclone, bringing heavy rains, strong winds, and storm surges to affected areas as well as flooding in low-lying areas of Rakhine state located in western Myanmar. Cyclone Mocha was one of the strongest cyclones to ever hit the country,  with Sittwe and Rathedaung being the hardest hit areas in Rakhine state, and there have also been reports of flooding in conflict-affected areas of the northwest. The storm may have been intensified by abnormally high sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal over the last month. Cyclone Mocha may negatively impact final dry-season rice production with 1,400 km2 of overall cropland area estimated to have been flooded and 32,000 livestock estimated to have been lost, according to the May 27 IFRC Emergency Appeal. Furthermore, land preparation is currently underway for wet-season rice. In Cambodia, harvesting of dry-season rice finalized last month under favourable conditions. Sowing of wet-season rice started in May, and crop growth is slightly delayed due to scattered rainfall throughout the country. Planted area has reached 2.6 million hectares accounting for 12 percent of the national plan. In Sri Lanka, planting of Yala season maize and rice crops continues under favourable conditions with an expected increase in planted area due to improvement in availability of agricultural inputs. In Nepal, harvesting of winter wheat is underway and will finalize in June while maize crops are in vegetative to reproductive stage for harvest from August, and overall conditions are favourable.  In Bangladesh, harvesting of Boro season rice finalized in May while planting and development of Aus season rice and other main season cereals is underway, and overall conditions remain favourable. Additionally, both maize and sorghum production are forecast to be above-average. In the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, planting and development of main season maize and rice crops continues for harvest from August, and overall conditions remain favourable.