AMIS CM Report

Crop Monitor for AMIS

No. 85: Published July 8th, 2021

Conditions as of June 28th

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For previous reports visit the Archive.

Overview:

As of the end of June, conditions are generally favourable for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans with a few areas of concern. For wheat in the northern hemisphere, winter wheat is harvesting while spring wheat is in the vegetative to reproductive stages. For maize, harvesting is continuing in the southern hemisphere and is in the vegetative to reproductive stages in the northern hemisphere. Rice conditions are generally favourable in Southeast Asia while sowing of Kharif rice is ongoing in India, and early-season rice is harvesting in China. Soybean is favourable in the northern hemisphere.

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Crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of June 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

 

Crop Conditions at a Glance:

Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat harvesting and spring wheat development are well underway with areas of concern expanding in the US, Canada, and Kazakhstan. In the southern hemisphere, sowing of winter wheat is ongoing under favourable conditions.

Maize – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is starting in Brazil and continuing in Argentina. In the northern hemisphere, conditions have improved in Europe while deteriorating in the US.

Rice – HHarvesting of early-season rice is ongoing in China. Transplanting of Kharif rice is starting in India. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia is transitioning over to dry-season rice while in the northern countries, wet-season rice is well underway.

Soybeans – In the northern hemisphere, hot and dry conditions expand in the northern US and Canada, while remaining favourable in China, India, and Ukraine.

 

Forecasts at a Glance:

Climate Influences – Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are present. However, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is likely to develop in July or August.

Argentina – June rainfall was seasonally below-average, and there are currently no water deficit areas across the main wheat growing regions as sowing begins.

Australia –The two-week forecast indicates a likelihood of some rainfall for most wheat-growing areas, while the long-term outlook shows above-average rainfall for most areas.

India – The July forecast for the 2021 southwest monsoon (June to September) season indicates likely average (94-106% of the long-term average) rainfall over most of the country.

United States – The short-term outlook for the next week and a half shows continued possible below-average rainfall in the northwest and northern plains.

 


Crop Conditions:

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In the EU, conditions are generally favourable for winter wheat after mixed weather during the spring. In the UK, winter wheat conditions are favourable. In Ukraine, conditions are generally favourable, however, recent heavy rainfall may limit final yields. In the Russian Federation, frequent rains during May and June have improved winter wheat conditions to favourable as harvesting begins. Spring wheat is under favourable conditions. In Turkey, winter wheat conditions are favourable as harvest begins. In China, harvesting is wrapping up in the central regions and continuing in the north under favourable conditions. Spring wheat is under generally favourable conditions. In the US, harvesting of winter wheat is ongoing under favourable conditions in the central growing regions and poor conditions in northern and southern areas due to hot and dry conditions. Spring wheat is under mixed conditions due to recent extreme heat and dryness. In Canada, hot and dry conditions are degrading both winter wheat and spring wheat in the Prairies, while winter wheat conditions are favourable in Eastern Canada. In Australia, conditions are generally favourable following close to average rainfall during June. In Argentina, sowing of winter wheat is progressing under favourable conditions.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In Brazil, harvesting is just beginning in the main producing states under mixed conditions due to excessive dryness and frosts during the critical reproductive stage. In Argentina, harvesting of the late-planted crop (usually smaller season) continues under generally favourable conditions, albeit delayed due to high moisture levels. In Mexico, harvesting of the autumn-winter crop (smaller season) is continuing under generally favourable conditions. Sowing of the spring-summer crop (larger season) is beginning under favourable conditions. In the US, the situation is mixed as persistent hot and dry conditions extend across much of the northern Corn Belt, with the biggest impacts around the Dakotas. In Canada, conditions are favourable in the east while mixed in the prairies due to hot and dry weather. In China, both the spring-planted and summer-planted crops are under favourable conditions. In India, sowing of Kharif maize is progressing under favourable conditions. In the EU, warmer weather in June has improved crop conditions across most of Europe. In Ukraine and the Russian Federation, conditions are favourable.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In China, early-season rice is harvesting, and single-season rice is in the vegetative to reproductive stage, both crops are under favourable conditions. In India, transplanting of Kharif rice has started under favourable conditions. In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season rice is wrapping up under generally favourable conditions with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. Sowing of dry-season rice continues to be delayed. In Viet Nam, harvesting continues for the winter-spring (dry-season) crop in the north under favourable conditions with yields slightly higher than last year. Sowing of the summer-autumn (wet-season) crop is progressing under favourable conditions throughout the country. In Thailand, sowing of wet-season rice is ongoing under favourable conditions with an expected increase of total sown area compared to last year due to good rains since April. In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under mixed conditions due to the impact of typhoon “Dante” earlier in June. In the US, conditions are favourable.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In the US, conditions are favourable in the central growing states, however, there is growing concern in northern and western areas of the Mid-West as hot and dry conditions persist, particularly in the Dakotas. There is a slight increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable in the main producing province of Ontario, however, in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, low soil moisture is delaying crop development. In China, conditions are favourable with good rainfall and soil moisture for crop development in the main producing Northeast region. In India, sowing is progressing under favourable conditions supported by the advanced progress of the Southwest Monsoon. In Ukraine, conditions are favourable.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

Climate Influences: Neutral ENSO & A Negative IOD likely

Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are present and are expected to continue from July through September (64% chance). IRI/CPC forecasts in July indicate increased chances for La Niña (62% chance) during October to December 2021.

A negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is likely to develop in July or August and persist for several months, according to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology forecasts and recent sea surface temperatures. Negative IOD conditions can increase the chances of above-average rainfall in parts of southeastern Australia during July to November and below-average rainfall in parts of East Africa from September to December.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

 

Global 30-day Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation

Responsive image Forecast of areas with above or below-average precipitation over the next 30-days starting on May 27th, 2021. The image is the multimodel mean of precipitations anomaly from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) model forecasts for that day. The anomaly is based on the 1999 to 2016 model average. Skill assessments of SubX can be accessed here. Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

The 30-day precipitation forecast indicates a likelihood of above-average rainfall over the southern United States, northwest Mexico, Costa Rica, Panama, eastern Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Southern Chile, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Cote d’Ivoire, Romania, southeast India, Bhutan, south-central and northeast China, Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, Republic of Korea, central Japan, Viet Nam, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Thailand, Cambodia, the Philippines, and eastern Indonesia. There is also a likelihood of below-average rainfall in eastern and southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, southern Columbia, southern Brazil, Uruguay, central Chile, Gambia, southern Senegal, Guinea-Bissau, western Guinea, north-central India, Bangladesh, and western Nepal.

 

Argentina

  • Rainfall in June was below-normal in most of the wheat growing areas. Above-normal rains only occured outside the productive region.
  • Although precipitation anomalies in the main wheat areas were negative, rains are typically minimal in June.
  • In this context, there are no areas with either water deficits or excess amounts that are affecting recently sown wheat.
  • Regarding temperature, by the end of June, a cold air intake took place that generated very low temperatures in the center and north of the country.
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    Source: Office of Agricultural Risk. http://www.ora.gob.ar/descargas.php

    Accumulated Rainfall Forecast

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    Forecasts from the SERVICIO METEOROLÓGICO NACIONAL
    https://www.smn.gob.ar/clima/perspectiva

    For the week of July 8-14, the expected rains are generally nil. Rainfalls above 10mm are only expected in the Córdoba mountains and the extreme northeast of the country. For the week of July 15-21, the forecasted rains would again be concentrated in the extreme northeast of the country and in the province of Buenos Aires. According to this forecast, rains in the next two weeks would be normal to slightly below-normal.

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    The scenarios were developed by ORA-MAGyP based on the weather forecast of the SMN https://www.smn.gob.ar/pronostico-trimestral

     

    Australia Climate Outlook

    The short-term weekly rainfall forecast (issued July 5th) for the next two weeks (July 10th – 23rd) shows that the majority of wheat-growing areas are likely to receive rainfall, particularly in southwestern West Australia, south and southeastern South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and southern Queensland. Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures are forecast to be mostly above-average, particularly from the northwest through Queensland, while temperatures in parts of Western Australia will be slightly below-average.

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    Australia rainfall outlook covering June 5-18th 2021. Data from The Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Image from: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/

    The longer-term (July to September) outlook issued on July 1st indicates a likelihood of above-average rainfall for most areas while western West Australia, coastal southeastern Australia, and western Tasmania are likely to experience average rainfall. During the same time, maximum daytime temperatures are likely to be above-average for the northern tropics and parts of southwest and southeastern Australia and below-average from South Australia across western New South Wales and into southern Queensland. Minimum nighttime temperatures are likely to be above-average across the country.

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    Chance of exceeding median rainfall for June to August 2021. Data from The Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Image from: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/
    Source: Australia Bureau of Meteorology

    India: Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Forecast for July

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    As of July 6th, the 2021 southwest monsoon had advanced through Lat 26’N / Long 70’ E, Barmer, Bhilwara, Dholpur, Aligarh, Meerut, Ambala, and Amritsar. It is likely to spread into northwest India covering Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Delhi, and remaining parts of West Uttar Pradesh by July 10th.

    The 2021 southwest monsoon forecast for July by the India Meteorological Department (July 1st) indicates that the country will receive average (94 – 106%) precipitation compared to the long-term average (1961-2010).

    Tercile probability rainfall forecast for the 2021 southwest monsoon season

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    Probability forecast of tercile categories (below normal, normal, and above normal) for the rainfall over India during the 2021 southwest monsoon season (June-September). Images from https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/press_release.php.
    Source: India Meteorological Department

    United States Climate Outlook

    For the July 11-15 short-term outlook, there is a possibility of below-average precipitation in the northwest and central Rockies down into southern Nevada and also extending into the northern plains (33-50%). There is an additional area of probable below-average precipitation along the southern Gulf Coast up into the Mid-Atlantic Coast (33-40%). A belt of possible above-average precipitation extends from southern New Mexico to the Great Lakes and western New England (33-40%).

    During the July 13-19 short-term outlook, the possibility of below-average precipitation remains across the northwest and central Rockies (33-50%). However, the probability of below-average precipitation in the northern plains is slightly reduced (33%). Below-average rainfall will also continue along the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic (33-40%). The possible above-average precipitation belt from southern New Mexico into the Great Lakes (33-40%) will split into two focused areas centered along the southern US border and over Indiana.

    For the longer-term July-August-September (JAS) 2021 outlook, above-average temperatures are likely over the western half of the US with the highest likelihood centered over the Rockies. Additionally, above-average temperatures are likely over the northern US and the US east coast, with the highest probability over New England. Only in Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and eastern Texas are temperatures expected to be average. For precipitation, below-average precipitation is likely from the Pacific Northwest to the central plains. Above-average precipitation is likely along the US south extending to New England. The highest probabilities for above-average precipitation are expected in New England and along the southern portion of the Mississippi.

    6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlooks

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    The official 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks issued July 5th, 2021 from NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, Climate Prediction Center. Images from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

    Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center


    Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.