AMIS CM Report

Crop Monitor for AMIS

No. 82: Published April 8th, 2021

Conditions as of March 28th

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For previous reports visit the Archive.

Overview:

As of the end of March, conditions are generally favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans while slightly mixed for wheat. For wheat in the northern hemisphere, there are areas of concern for winter wheat primarily due to persistent dryness conditions. For maize in the southern hemisphere, conditions are generally favourable with some dryness affecting spring-planted crops in South America while conditions in South Africa are exceptional. Rice conditions are generally favourable with some areas of concern lingering in southeast Asia. Soybean conditions are generally favourable in the southern hemisphere, except for some minor areas in Argentina.

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Crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of March 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

 

Crop Conditions at a Glance:

Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, areas of concern for winter wheat remain those of last month as spring regrowth begins in the Russian Federation, Ukraine, Turkey, the US, and Canada.

Maize – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is progressing in Brazil and Argentina for the spring-planted crops. Harvesting has begun in South Africa. In the northern hemisphere, conditions are favourable for India and Mexico.

Rice – Rabi rice in India is under favourable conditions. In Southeast Asia, wet-season rice in Indonesia and dry-season rice in the northern countries are under mixed conditions. Harvesting is continuing in Brazil.

Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, conditions are favourable to exceptional in Brazil, while in Argentina conditions are mixed.

 

Forecasts at a Glance:

Climate Influences – La Niña is currently present as of late March and is showing signs of weakening. A transition to neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is anticipated.

Argentina – Rainfall over the next two weeks is forecast to be average across most of the country with the exception of the northeast, which is forecast to have below-average rainfall.

Black Sea Region –The April-May-June (AMJ) 2021 outlook has an increased probability of above-average temperatures particularly in the south of the Russian Federation. Additionally, below-average rainfall is likely across the winter wheat growing areas of the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan.

United States – For the short-term outlook there is a probability of below-average precipitation across the West Coast and the Rockies, the Great Lakes region, and in New England. Conversely, there is possible above-average precipitation in the southeast and central plains.

Southeast Asia – Between April 10th and April 23rd, parts of southern Thailand, Cambodia, southern Vietnam, and the Philippines are likely to receive above-normal rainfall, while drier-than-normal conditions are likely in the already rainfall deficit areas of central Indonesia.


Crop Conditions:

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In the EU, conditions are favourable for winter wheat across most of Europe as warm weather in early March led to a restart of growth and development after winter dormancy. In the UK, conditions are favourable as a break in rainfall has allowed a return to fieldwork. In Ukraine, conditions are generally favourable albeit with a slightly delayed start to regrowth due to recent cool weather. In the Russian Federation, recent rainfall has eased dry conditions for winter wheat, however, the Southern and North Caucasus Regions are under watch due to remaining drier-than-average conditions. In Turkey, conditions remain under watch as rainfall deficits continue, potentially affecting crop growth and irrigation reservoir levels. In China, conditions are generally favourable for winter wheat as crop growth resumes in the north. Spring wheat sowing has begun under favourable conditions. In India, conditions are favourable as the crop moves towards the maturity stage. There is an increase in total sown area compared to last year and longer-term average. In the US, winter wheat remains under watch conditions due to continuing dryness throughout the Great Plains, however, total sown area is estimated to have increased compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable in the main producing province of Ontario, while dry conditions remain in the Prairie provinces.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In Brazil, harvest is progressing for the spring-planted (smaller season) crop under poor conditions in the main producing South region due to a lack of rains during critical development stages. Conversely, conditions are favourable in the Central-West and the Southeast regions, while exceptional in the Northeast region. Sowing of the summer-planted (larger season) crop is wrapping up under favourable conditions with an estimated increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Argentina, harvest of the early-planted crop (usually larger season) has begun under generally favourable conditions with initial yields below last year’s, but higher than expected. Recent rainfall has improved conditions for the late-planted crop (usually smaller season), however, some areas of concern remain. In Mexico, sowing of the autumn-winter crop (smaller season) is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In India, harvesting has begun for the Rabi crop under favourable conditions. In South Africa, conditions are exceptional across most of the country as harvest begins.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In India, Rabi rice is under favourable conditions with a slight increase in total sown area compared to last year’s. In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season rice is ongoing under generally favourable conditions with yields slightly lower compared to last year due to an overall drier season. Earlier flooding in South Kalimantan has resulted in damage to a large amount of planted area in the region. In Viet Nam, conditions are favourable for the winter-spring (dry-season) crop as harvesting continues in the Mekong River Delta. Sowing has begun for the summer-autumn (wet-season) crop in the Mekong River Delta under favourable conditions. In Thailand, harvesting is beginning for earlier sown dry-season rice under mixed conditions due to a lack of irrigation water during most of the season. Total sown area has increased to above last year’s levels. In the Philippines, harvesting has begun for earlier sown dry-season rice. Conditions are currently mixed as some provinces in Visayas and Mindanao have experienced damage from recent storm systems. In Brazil, harvest is about halfway complete under favourable conditions.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In Brazil, harvesting is progressing under favourable conditions across most of the country and with exceptional conditions in the Northeast region. There is an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Argentina, conditions remain mixed across both the early-planted crop (larger season) and the late-planted crop (smaller season) due to uneven rainfall. The early-planted crop is in the maturity stages while the late-planted crop is in the critical grain-filling stages and will require further rainfall to ensure favourable yields.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

Climate Influences: La Niña Advisory

La Niña is currently present as of late March and is showing signs of weakening. There is a 62% chance of transitioning to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions from April to June followed by a 52% chance of transitioning from July to September.

Long-range forecasts made during this time of year have a high level of uncertainty. However, IRI/CPC forecasts in March indicated about equal chances that another La Niña event might develop (48% chance) or ENSO neutral conditions will occur (42% chance) during September to November 2021.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

 

Global 30-day Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation

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Forecast of areas with above or below-average precipitation over the next 30-days starting on April 1st, 2021. The image is the multimodel mean of precipitations anomaly from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) model forecasts for that day. The anomaly is based on the 1999 to 2016 model average. Skill assessments of SubX can be accessed here. Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

The 30-day precipitation forecast indicates a likelihood of above-average rainfall over Colombia, Guyana, Suriname, northern Brazil, northern Tanzania, Thailand, southern Vietnam, the Philippines, and Papua New Guinea. There is also a likelihood of below-average rainfall across the south and east of the US, northeast and central and southern Brazil, northern Uruguay, central Ethiopia, Cameroon, Angola, central Namibia, Zambia, Mozambique, central South Africa, northern Pakistan, eastern India, Bhutan, eastern Bangladesh, northern Myanmar, southeast China, Indonesia, Malaysia, and southern Japan.

 

Argentina

In the last 10 days of March, significant rainfall happened in the center and north of the country, mainly in Formosa, Chaco, central and northern Santa Fe, and northern Entre Ríos. Eastern Córdoba and southern Santa Fe have optimal or adequate reserves, while northern Buenos Aires has regular or low reserves. There are a few areas with a water deficit. The driest region is in the southwest of Buenos Aires and southeast of La Pampa.

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Source: Office of Agricultural Risk. http://www.ora.gob.ar/descargas.php

Short-term Rainfall Forecast

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Source: https://www.smn.gob.ar/clima/perspectiva

Over the next two weeks, rainfall is expected to be markedly below-average in the northeast while average across the rest of the country. For the week of April 6th, rainfall is forecast to be concentrated in the center and northeast of Buenos Aires, southern Santa Fe, and southern Entre Ríos. During the week of April 13th, the rainfall forecast is limited to the east of the country.

30-day Soybean Water Stress Probability Scenarios

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The scenarios were developed by ORA-MAGyP based on the weather forecast of the SMN https://www.smn.gob.ar/pronostico-trimestral

 

Black Sea Region Outlook

Over the next three months (April-May-June), there is the probability of below-average rainfall across much of the winter wheat-producing regions of the Russian Federation, eastern Ukraine, and across most of Kazakhstan with the highest probability in the south. There is a probability of below-average rainfall across much of Kazakhstan with the strongest possibility in southern Kazakhstan. Additionally, above-average temperatures are probably across the entire region for the April-May-June period with the highest probability in the Southern and North Caucasian districts of the Russian Federation, eastern Ukraine, and southern Kazakhstan.

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3-month (April-May-June 2021) probabilistic forecasts of precipitation and air temperature anomalies. The most likely category for below-normal, above-normal, and near-normal is depicted in blue, red, and grey shadings respectively. White areas indicate equal chances for all categories in both cases. The baseline period is 1993–2009. The figure is generated by The WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble. Images fromhttps://www.wmolc.org/home.

 

United States Climate Outlook

For the April 10-14th short-term outlook, there is possible below-average precipitation across the western contiguous US from all along the West Coast to encompass the Rocky Mountains (33-50%) and in northern New England (33-40%). Additionally, there is possible below-average precipitation from the Mississippi River west into the southern Great Plains (33%). Areas of possible above-average precipitation are in the northeast Great Plains down into the central Great Plains (33%) and along the East Coast from the mid-Atlantic down to the Gulf Coast (33%).

During the April 12-18th short-term forecast, the possibility of below-average precipitation remains across the West Coast through the Rocky Mountains (33-40%) and in northern New England (33%) albeit reduced slightly. Furthermore, an area of possible below-average precipitation covers the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions (33-40%). An area of possible above average precipitation covers the central Great Plains from northern Texas into northern Nebraska (33-40%).

For the April-May-June (AMJ) 2021 outlook, above-average temperatures are likely over nearly all of the contiguous US with the highest likelihood (over 70%) centered over the Four Corners region in the Southwest to southern Texas. Below-average temperatures are only likely in the northern Pacific Northwest to the southern Alaskan coast. For precipitation, below-average precipitation is likely from the central west coast across to the southern Great Plains. Above-average precipitation is likely around the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and the mid-Atlantic coast into New England.

April-May-June 2021 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

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The official MAM forecast as of March 18th, 2021 from NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, Climate Prediction Center. Images from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

 

Southeast Asia Current Seasonal Conditions plus 3-month Forecast

December 1st and March 25th rainfall totals are less than 80% of average in northern and southernmost Myanmar, in parts of southern and central mainland Thailand, and in western and central Cambodia. Parts of central Indonesia have also been drier than average. Rainfall totals are above average in parts of southern Vietnam, peninsular Thailand, and most maritime areas, while eastern maritime areas have seasonal totals that are 120% to higher than 200% of average.

For the first half of April, the unbiased GEFS forecast from March 31st shows above-average rainfall in Thailand, southern Myanmar, northern Laos, and the southern Philippines. Below-average rainfall is forecast for northern Myanmar, which would increase and expand current deficits. Below-average rainfall is also forecast in Indonesia, in West Sumatra, West Kalimantan, and in some southeastern areas. The extended outlook for December 1st to April 10th rainfall anomaly (Figure 1-left) includes an earlier, but similar, unbiased GEFS forecast.

According to the 30-day SubX forecast from April 2nd, parts of southern Thailand, Cambodia, southern Vietnam, and the Philippines are likely to receive above-normal rainfall between April 10th and April 23rd, while drier-than-normal conditions are likely in rainfall deficit areas of central Indonesia (Figure 1-middle). SubX forecasts for April rainfall totals show a similar pattern.

Dynamical model forecasts from early March, from several international centers, show slightly higher-than-normal chances for wetter-than-normal conditions during April to June in mainland countries and in southern Indonesia, and higher chances for wet conditions in the Philippines (Figure 1-right). Parts of central Indonesia may see below-normal April to June rainfall. Warmer-than-normal conditions are forecast for maritime areas.

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Figure 1. A March 1st to April 10th seasonal outlook, a 2-week rainfall anomaly probability forecast, and a 3-month rainfall anomaly probability forecast. The panel on the left is a CHC Early Estimate for March 1st to April 10th, which combines 2021 rainfall amounts with the 15-day unbiased GEFS forecast and compares the total to the 1981-2020 CHIRPS average. The middle panel is a probabilistic forecast for April 10-23, 2021, obtained from the statistical calibration of three models (NCEP CFSv2, NCEP GEFS, and NOAA/ESRL FIM HYCOM) from the SubX database. The panel on the right is a probabilistic forecast for most-likely April-May-June 2021 rainfall tercile from the WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble, based on early March conditions. White color indicates that there is no dominant category across the model forecasts.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

 


Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.