AMIS CM Report

Crop Monitor for AMIS

No. 94: Published May 5th, 2022

Conditions as of April 28th

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For previous reports visit the Archive.

Overview:

At the end of April, conditions are generally favourable for maize and rice, while mixed for wheat and soybeans. In the northern hemisphere, areas of concern for winter wheat remain as spring wheat sowing begins. Maize harvesting continues in Argentina and Brazil as sowing expands in the northern hemisphere. Rice conditions remain favourable in most countries. Soybean harvesting continues in Argentina and Brazil under mixed conditions.

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Crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

 

Crop Conditions at a Glance:

Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat conditions are mixed in Europe and the US due to climatic conditions while the continuing war in Ukraine creates additional uncertainties. Harvesting continues in India with some areas experiencing extreme heat.

Maize – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting continues in Brazil, Argentina, and South Africa. In the northern hemisphere, sowing is ongoing in the US, Europe, Ukraine, the Russian Federation, and China.

Rice – Rabi rice is harvesting in India. Single-season rice is sowing in China. In Southeast Asia, harvesting is continuing for dry-season rice in the northern countries and wet-season rice in Indonesia. In the Americas, harvesting is ongoing in Brazil, while sowing continues in the US.

Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is ongoing in Argentina and Brazil with areas of reduced yields. In the northern hemisphere, sowing is beginning in the US and Ukraine.

 

Forecasts at a Glance:

Climate Influences – The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in the La Niña phase and is expected to remain as La Niña through at least July (73% chance) according to the IRI/CPC.

Brazil – The short-term (2-week), rainfall is likely to be below-average across much of the Central-West and South regions. Extended May-June-July forecast shows likely below-average rainfall over much of the South, while above average over the North and Northeast regions.

Europe – The short-term (2-week), rainfall is likely to be average across most countries. However, the extended May-June-July forecast shows likely below-average rainfall over much of southern Europe.

United States – The short-term (2-week) outlook shows possible above-average rainfall over the northern and central plains, while the long-term (3-months) outlook shows below-average rainfall over much of the Great Plains and the Pacific Northwest.


Crop Conditions:

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In the EU, conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some pockets of dryness. Recent cold spells in the southern countries have slowed crop development. In the United Kingdom, winter wheat conditions are favourable. In Ukraine, the ongoing war continues to bring significant uncertainties as to the ability of the farmers to safely perform fieldwork and harvest their crops over the next few months. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat conditions are favourable as warm and wet weather continues. Sowing of spring wheat has begun in Volga under favourable conditions. In Turkey, below-average temperatures have slowed crop development. In China, conditions are favourable for both winter and spring wheat. In India, harvesting is ongoing under generally favourable conditions, however, above-average temperatures in the States of Punjab and Haryana have led to the early maturity of the crop and thus reduced final yields. In the US, winter wheat throughout much of the Great Plains continues to be impacted by the long-term dryness. Spring wheat sowing is off to a slow but favourable start. In Canada, winter wheat conditions remain mixed in the central and western Prairies while favourable in Manitoba and Ontario. In Australia, sowing is just beginning in Queensland and Western Australia under favourable conditions.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In Brazil, harvesting of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) is continuing with reduced yields in the main producing South region. The summer-planted crop (larger season) is developing under favourable conditions. In Argentina, harvesting of the early-planted crop (larger season) is continuing with reduced yields due to earlier hot and dry weather. Conditions of the late-planted crop (smaller season) remain favourable. In South Africa, harvesting is ongoing under favourable conditions. In India, harvesting of the Rabi crop is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In the US, sowing is progressing slower than usual due to cool and wet weather across much of the Corn Belt region. In Mexico, harvesting has begun for the autumn-winter crop (smaller season). There is a reduction in the total sown area compared to the five-year average. In the EU, sowing is ongoing under generally favourable conditions, albeit delayed in most areas due to unseasonably cool weather. In Ukraine, sowing is progressing under the uncertainties of war with a substantial reduction in total sown area forecasted for this season. In the Russian Federation, sowing has begun under favourable conditions. In China, the sowing of the spring-planted crop continues under favourable conditions.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In China, conditions are favourable for the sowing of single-season rice and the continued development of early-season rice. In India, harvesting of the Rabi crop is ongoing under favourable conditions. In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season rice enters the fourth month with good yields owing to ample rainfall and sunlight during the growing season. In Viet Nam, winter-spring rice (dry-season) is in the tillering and young panicle forming stages in the north, while harvesting in the south. Sowing of summer-autumn rice (wet season rice) has begun in the Mekong River Delta under favourable conditions. In Thailand, dry-season rice is harvesting with an expected increase in yields compared to last year due to ample rainfall throughout the season. The total sown area is increased compared to last year. In the Philippines, harvesting of dry-season rice is continuing under generally favourable conditions. However, tropical storm Megi caused significant damage to the crops in the Visayas region and will result in a reduction in yields. In Brazil, harvesting is continuing under mixed conditions due to high temperatures and water deficits in the south region. In the US, sowing is ongoing under favourable conditions.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In Brazil, harvesting is wrapping up under poor conditions in some regions. Despite an increase in sown area compared to last season, a reduction in yields is expected due to a lack of rainfall associated with high temperatures during the reproductive stages in the South region and Mato Grosso do Sul state. In Argentina, harvesting is progressing for the early-planted crop (larger season) and beginning for the late-planted crop (smaller season) under mixed conditions. The impact of dry conditions throughout the growing season has impacted yields, particularly in Santa Fe, Entre Rios, and San Luis. The yields for the late-planted crop (smaller season) are now at risk due to frosts. In the US, sowing is off to a slow start due to due to cool and wet weather. In Ukraine, sowing is progressing under the uncertainties of the ongoing war.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

La Niña Advisory

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in the La Niña phase and is expected to remain as La Niña through at least July (73% chance) according to the IRI/CPC. Long-range forecasts show higher-than 50% chances of La Niña, and very low chances of El Niño, through the end of 2022.

If La Niña conditions occur in late 2022 it would be the third event in a row, which is highly uncommon. Another La Niña could elevate the risks of repeated dry conditions in negatively-affected regions, such as eastern East Africa, southern South America, Central and Southern Asia, and southern North America, where several rainfall seasons have been below-average since late 2020.

Negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to develop in June and last through September or longer. Negative IOD conditions are associated with above-average rainfall in Australia and below-average rainfall in East Africa.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

Responsive imageLocation and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to La Niña events. Based upon observed precipitation during 21 La Niña events since 1950,wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC https://fews.net/la-ni%C3%B1a-and-precipitation

Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation

The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average rainfall over the northern Great Plains in the US and the southern Prairies in Canada, Panama, northern Brazil, eastern India, Bangladesh, southwest China, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, southern Viet Nam, and eastern Australia.

There is also a likelihood of below-average rainfall over the US southwest, southern Mexico, Bolivia, southern and central-west Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Argentina, southern and eastern Germany, southwest Poland, northeastern Romania, Moldova, southwest Ukraine, southern and Siberian of the Russian Federation, southern Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, northern and western Iran, southern and eastern Kazakhstan, eastern Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, eastern Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, southern Mali, Côte d’Ivoire, southern Niger, Nigeria, southern Chad, northern Central African Republic, southern Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, southern Uganda, central and eastern Tanzania, northern Madagascar, northern China, Indonesia, and Western Australia.

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IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7-20 May 2022, issued on April 29th, 2022. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom

Brazil Outlook

For the May 7 – 20 short-term outlook, there is the possibility of below-average precipitation across Mato Grosso, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. For the longer-term seasonal May-June-July (MJJ) 2022 outlook, below-average precipitation is likely to continue over Mato Grosso do Sul, Sao Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, and the Rio Grande do Sul. Above-average precipitation is likely over much of the north and northeast states.

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Left: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7-20 May 2022, issued on April 29th, 2022. The forecast is based on statistically-calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Image from the IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom. Right:Forecast for May-June-July (MJJ) 2022 precipitation anomaly, issued April 2022. Source: National Institute of Meteorology (INMET)

Europe Outlook

The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates likely below-average rainfall is likely in southwest Poland, northeast Romania, Moldova, southwestern Ukraine, the southern Russian Federation, and parts of southern Turkey. The long-term May-June-July 2022 forecast (Figure 2) predicts likely below-average precipitation across all of southern Europe with the highest probabilities in Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Green, Turkey, and the southern Russian Federation.

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Left: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 7-20 May 2022, issued on April 29th, 2022. The forecast is based on statistically-calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Image from the IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom. Right: Multi-model ensemble probabilistic forecast for May-June-July (MJJ) 2022 precipitation from the WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecast Milt-Model Ensemble at https://www.wmolc.org/seasonPmmeUI/plot_PMME.

United States Outlook

For the May 8-12 short-term outlook, there is the possibility of below-average precipitation in California and across the Appalachians. Conversely, there is the possibility of above-average precipitation in the northern plains and extending down into the central plains. At the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the eastern plains and from the mid-west down into the Gulf of Mexico. Below-average temperatures are likely in the coastal portion of the mid-Atlantic states and across the western half of the US.

For the longer-term seasonal May-June-July (MJJ) 2022 outlook, above-average precipitation is likely over Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, northern Kentucky, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, Florida, and southern Arizona. Below-average precipitation is likely across the southern and central plains, the northern Rockies, and the Pacific Northwest. At the same time, temperatures will likely be above average across most of the contiguous US, with the highest likelihood centered over Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and northwest Texas.

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The official 6-10 day outlook issued on May 2nd, 2022, and the extended May-June-July outlook issued on April 21st, 2022 from NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, Climate Prediction Center. Images from https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center


Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.