AMIS CM Report

Crop Monitor for AMIS

No. 113: Published February 1st, 2024

Conditions as of January 28th

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For previous reports visit the Archive.

Overview:

At the end of January, conditions are mixed for wheat, and soybeans, while favourable for maize and rice. Winter wheat harvest wraps up in Argentina under mixed conditions. Winter wheat in the northern hemisphere deals with some adverse weather in parts of Europe and North America. Maize conditions are generally favourable except for parts of the spring-planted crop (smaller season) in Brazil. Rice conditions are generally favourable, albeit with some delays in southern India for the Rabi season. Soybean conditions are mixed due to the impacts of earlier hot and dry weather in Brazil.

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Crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

 

Crop Conditions at a Glance:

Wheat – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is wrapping up in Argentina. In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat is under mixed conditions in parts of Europe, the Black Sea region, the US, and Canada.

Maize – In the southern hemisphere, conditions are favourable in Argentina and South Africa while harvesting is beginning in Brazil for the spring-planted crop under mixed conditions. Conditions are favourable in India for the Rabi crop.

Rice – In India, transplanting of the Rabi crop continues. In Bangladesh, Aus season rice harvest is wrapping up as Boro season rice is sown. In Southeast Asia, wet-season rice is beginning in Indonesia as the sowing of dry-season rice ramps up in the northern countries.

Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, harvesting is beginning in Brazil under mixed conditions as sowing is wrapping in Argentina under favourable conditions.

 

Forecasts at a Glance:

Climate Influences – The ongoing strong El Niño event is forecast to weaken during the next several months. ENSO-neutral conditions are likely from April to June (73% chance), followed by a possible return to La Niña conditions later this year, with a 64% chance of a La Niña event by August to October 2024.

Argentina – Below-average precipitation is expected across the country over the next week followed by likely above-average precipitation the following week. Temperatures will likely be above-average over the next two weeks.

Brazil – The February forecast indicates a mix of above- and below-average precipitation across the country combined with likely above-average temperatures.

Mexico – During February and March, precipitation is likely to be below-average across most of the country white temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country.


Crop Conditions:

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In Argentina, harvesting is wrapping up under mixed conditions due to the earlier severe drought that affected much of the country. In the EU, conditions are mixed due to a cold spell in the north, excessive rainfall in central Europe, and dryness along the Mediterranean. In the UK, conditions are mixed due to excessive rainfall. In Türkiye, conditions are favourable. In Ukraine, conditions are favourable away from the active warzone with adequate snow cover and an increase in soil moisture. In the Russian Federation, conditions are favourable as soil moisture improves due to ample precipitation, however, dry conditions remain in some areas of the Caucasus. In China, conditions are favourable with a boost to soil moisture reserves received in December. In India, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In the US, conditions are generally favourable albeit with recent extreme cold temperatures combined with little or no snow cover increasing the potential for winterkill in the Northern High Plains. There is a reduction in the total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, winter wheat conditions are favourable in the main producing provinces of Ontario and Manitoba, however, a lack of adequate snow cover combined with extremely low temperatures is potentially impacting crops in the Prairies.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In Brazil, harvesting is beginning for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) under mixed conditions due to a lack of rain and high temperatures earlier in the season, however, a recent return of rains is expected to facilitate the recovery of the crop. A reduction in the total sown area is expected compared to last year. Sowing of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is beginning under favourable conditions. In Argentina, conditions are favourable for both the early-planted crop (larger season), which is in the flowering and grain-filling stage, and the late-planted crop (smaller season), which is in the early-vegetative stage. In South Africa, conditions are favourable following widespread rain since early December, however, temperatures and rainfall during February will be critical. In Mexico, harvesting is wrapping up for the Spring-Summer season (larger season) as the sowing of the Autumn-winter season (smaller season) continues under dry conditions. In India, the sowing of the Rabi crop is wrapping up under favourable conditions.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In India, transplanting of Rabi rice is ongoing under favourable conditions in the eastern states and with a delay in the southern states, especially in Karnataka due to lingering dryness from the previous season. In Bangladesh, conditions are favourable as both the harvesting of the Aus season rice (smallest season) and sowing of the Boro season rice (largest season) wrap up. In Indonesia, conditions are favourable as wet-season rice sowing continues and the harvesting of earlier sown crops begins. In Viet Nam, the sowing of dry-season rice (winter-spring rice) is beginning in the Mekong River Delta under favourable conditions. In Thailand, dry-season rice conditions have improved, although the dry weather during sowing is expected to result in a reduction in the total sown area compared to last year. In the Philippines, dry-season rice is under favourable conditions due to ample rainfall during sowing and support from the government with high-yield seeds. In Brazil, conditions are favourable with an increase in sown area compared to last year.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

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In Brazil, as harvesting begins, conditions are mixed across most of the country due to a lack of rain and high temperatures from September to mid-December. However, regular rains have returned, and conditions are likely to improve before harvest. In the South, conditions are favourable despite excessive rainfall. In Argentina, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions across the country. The early-planting crop (typically larger season) is in the reproductive stages and the late-planted crop (typically smaller season) is emerging.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

Strong El Niño Advisory and Intense Positive IOD

The ongoing strong El Niño event is forecast to weaken during the next several months. ENSO-neutral conditions are likely from April to June (73% chance). Long-range outlooks indicate a possible return to La Niña conditions later this year, with a 64% chance of a La Niña event by August to October 2024, based on the CPC/IRI forecast.

El Niño events tend to enhance precipitation in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, and south-eastern China. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur in northern South America, parts of the northern U.S. and Canada, Southern Africa, the Maritime Continent, and northern Australia.

Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions continue to weaken and will likely return to neutral during February 2024.

Globally, 2023 was the warmest year on record, and the warming influence of El Niño will likely continue this upward trend into 2024. Warmer temperatures will exacerbate rainfall deficits due to higher evaporation.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

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Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to El Niño events. Based upon observed precipitation during 22 El Niño events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC

 

Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation

The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the southern Prairies in Canada, the Great Plains and Southwestern US, northwestern Mexico, Columbia, western Venezuela, northeast Brazil, north-central Europe, western Belarus, Ukraine, the Russian Federation, northwestern Kazakhstan, Türkiye, northern and western Ethiopia, southeastern South Sudan, Kenya, southern Somalia, Rwanda, Burundi, western Tanzania, western Angola, and southern China.
There is also a likelihood of below-average precipitation over western and eastern Canada, the Pacific Northwest and eastern US, southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, northeast Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern Brazil, southern Peru, central and southern Argentina, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Norway, Finland, Morocco, northern Algeria, Tunisia, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, southern Togo, southern Benin, southern Nigeria, southern Cameroon, the Central Republic of Africa, northern Republic of Congo, northwest Democratic Republic of the Congo, southeast Angola, western Zambia, Zimbabwe, southern and central Mozambique, Botswana, Namibia, western South Africa, eastern Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, northern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, northwest India, western and central China, the eastern Russian Federation, the Republic of Korea, central Thailand, and eastern Australia.

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Figure 1: IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for for 3 – 16 February 2024, issued on 26 January 2023. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom 

Argentina Outlook

The 31 January to 6 February precipitation anomaly forecast (left) indicates a likelihood of below-average rainfall over most agricultural areas, particularly along the border with Uruguay. During the same period, above-normal temperatures are expected across the country.
The 7 to 13 February precipitation anomaly forecast (right) shows above-average rainfall is expected across most central growing areas while below-average rainfall is likely in the far north. During the same period, above-average temperatures are expected across the country.

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Left: 31 January to 6 February 2024 forecast precipitation anomaly in mm.  Right: 7 to 13 February forecast precipitation anomaly in mm. Images from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina.

Brazil Outlook

The February 2024 precipitation anomaly forecast (left) indicates a likelihood of above-average precipitation over the east and southeast regions with a mix of above-average and below-average rainfall over the southern, central, and northern regions, while below-average precipitation over the northwest regions. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above average across most of the country except the coastal areas in the southeast and the southern regions.

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Left: February 2024 precipitation anomaly forecast, issued in January 2024. Right: February 2024 temperature anomaly forecast, issued in January 2024. Images from the National Institute of Meteorology

Mexico Outlook

The February outlook indicates likely below-average precipitation across most of the country except for eastern Coahuila, northern Nuevo Leon, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Tabasco, Chiapas, and Quintana Roo. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country except for in Sonora, and northern Chihuahua. During March, the outlook indicates a similar pattern of below-average precipitation across most of the country and accompanying above-average temperatures.

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Upper Left: February precipitation anomaly issued January 2024. Upper Right: February temperature anomaly issued January 2024. Lower Left: March precipitation anomaly issued January 2024. Lower Right: March temperature anomaly issued January 2024. Maps from Mexico’s National Meteorological Service (SMN).


Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.