2.0 AMIS Report

Crop Monitor for AMIS

No. 72: Published May 7th, 2020

Conditions as of April 28th

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For previous reports visit the Archive.

Overview:

As of the end of April, conditions are mixed for rice while generally favourable for wheat, maize, and soybeans. In the Northern Hemisphere, winter wheat is generally favourable conditions with some mixed conditions in the EU, southern Ukraine, and in parts of the US western plains. The maize season is wrapping up in the Southern Hemisphere under a wide variety of conditions. In the Northern Hemisphere, sowing is ongoing under generally favourable conditions. Rice in Southeast Asia is under watch to poor conditions due to prolonged dry conditions during the season. Soybean harvest in the Southern Hemisphere continues under a wide range of conditions while sowing is beginning in the Northern Hemisphere.

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Crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of April 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

 

Conditions at a Glance:

Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat is under mixed conditions in the EU and parts of the western plains in the US. Spring wheat sowing has begun.

Maize – In the southern hemisphere, the season is wrapping up in Brazil and Argentina under a wide variety of conditions. In the northern hemisphere, conditions are favourable in India and Mexico, while sowing is ongoing in the US and the EU.

Rice – Conditions are favourable in China and India. In Southeast Asia, harvest is ongoing for dry-season rice in northern countries and for wet-season rice in Indonesia under mixed conditions.

Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, harvest is wrapping in Brazil under mixed conditions while generally favourable conditions prevail in Argentina. In the northern hemisphere, sowing is beginning in the US and Ukraine.

ENSO and IOD Neutral Conditions:

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are currently neutral and are expected to remain neutral through the northern hemisphere summer. However, there is an elevated chance of La Niña or La Niña-like climate arising by October. Such conditions are associated with the combined influence of abnormally cool equatorial East Pacific sea surface waters and abnormally warm sea surface waters in the western Pacific. La Niña or La Niña-like conditions during October-December typically reduce rainfall in East Africa, Central Southwest Asia, southern Brazil and central Argentina, and increase rainfall in Southern Africa, Australia, and eastern Brazil.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center


Crop Conditions:


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In the EU, despite one of the driest starts to spring since 1979 conditions are generally favourable. However, additional rainfall over the next month or two is needed to maintain yields. In the UK, crops are under favourable conditions despite a dryer than normal spring. In Turkey, conditions are favourable albeit with a delay in crop growth due to late sowing. In Ukraine, winter wheat is under generally favourable conditions except in the south, where dry conditions continue to worsen with little or no rain received over the past two months. In the Russian Federation, conditions are generally favourable for winter wheat. Sowing of spring wheat has begun under favourable conditions. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat conditions are favourable as spring wheat sowing begins under favourable conditions. In China, conditions are favourable to exceptional for winter wheat. Sowing of spring wheat has begun under generally favourable conditions. In India, harvest is ongoing under very good conditions. Compared to last year, there is an increase in total sown area and an increase in expected yields. In the US, winter wheat is under generally favourable conditions although with some dryness in the western reaches of the Great Plains. Spring wheat sowing is somewhat delayed due to wet and cold conditions in the upper Great Plains. In Canada, conditions are favourable for winter wheat awaiting winterkill assessment in the Prairies. In Australia, sowing is beginning in Queensland under favourable conditions.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.


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In Brazil, harvest is wrapping up for the spring-planted (smaller season) crop under a mix of exceptional to poor conditions. A lack of rains in the South, the main producing region, caused a serious reduction of yields, especially in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. For the summer-planted (larger season) crop conditions are favourable with an increase in total sown area compared to last season. In Argentina, harvest is progressing slowly for spring-planted crops due to prioritization of soybean harvesting. Conditions are generally favourable except in provinces of San Luis and Entre Ríos, where prolonged dry conditions have taken its toll on the crops. In the US, conditions are favourable as sowing is ramping up after some initial delays due to earlier damp and cold conditions. In Mexico, harvest is just beginning for the autumn-winter crop under favourable conditions. Sowing of the spring-summer crop is beginning under favourable conditions. In the EU, a very dry spring combined with cold spells has negatively impacted sowing and emergence conditions in central and south-eastern countries. In the Russian Federation, sowing is progressing under generally favourable conditions. In India, harvest of the Rabi crop is underway in favourable conditions. In China, sowing of spring-planted maize is beginning under favourable conditions. In South Africa, conditions are generally favourable with good yields expected in the central growing states.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.


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In China, conditions are favourable for early-season rice and the sowing of single-season rice. In India, harvest of Rabi rice is ongoing under favourable conditions. There is an increase in total sown area this year compared to average. In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season crops continues into the fourth month with yields estimated to be lower than last year due to the prolonged drought. Sowing of dry-season crops is delayed by the extension of the wet-season crops much later than usual. In Viet Nam, harvesting of dry-season rice (winter-spring) is ongoing under mixed conditions in the south due to saltwater intrusion. In the north, conditions are favourable with the total sown area in line with the average. Wet-season (summer-autumn) sowing is beginning in the south under favourable conditions. In Thailand, harvesting of dry-season rice is ongoing under poor conditions due to insufficient water and hot weather. A shortage of irrigation water and rainfall during the season resulted in a two-third reduction of sown area compared to last season. In the Philippines, harvesting of dry-season rice is about half-way complete with below-average yields expected as most regions experienced moisture stress due to insufficient irrigation water supply during the reproductive stage. In Brazil, harvest is wrapping up under exceptional conditions. In the US, sowing and emergence are well underway under favourable conditions.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.


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In Brazil, harvest is wrapping up under generally exceptional conditions with an increase in sown area and above-average yields, which make it an exceptional crop despite the persistent dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul that reduced yields in the south. In Argentina, harvest is ongoing and making fast progress owing to good weather in April. Conditions are generally favourable for both the spring-planted and summer-planted crops, albeit with a mixture of conditions across the central growing regions and poor conditions in San Luis and Entre Ríos due to prolonged dryness. In the US, sowing is beginning under favourable conditions. In Ukraine, sowing is beginning under generally favourable conditions with the exception of the south due to low soil moisture.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.


Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.