Crop Monitor for AMIS
No. 106: Published June 1st, 2023
Conditions as of May 28th
PDF Download linkFor previous reports visit the Archive.
Overview:
At the end of May, conditions are favourable for wheat, maize, and rice, while mixed for soybeans. For wheat, conditions are generally exceptional in parts of Europe, while poor in Spain and parts of the US. Maize is harvesting in Argentina under poor conditions and in South Africa under exceptional conditions, while sowing continues in the Northern Hemisphere under favourable conditions. Rice conditions are favourable across Asia. Soybean harvesting continues in Argentina under poor conditions while sowing is ongoing in the northern hemisphere under favourable conditions.
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance:
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat is under exceptional conditions across a large part of Europe, while poor in Spain and parts of the US. Spring wheat sowing is in full swing. In the southern hemisphere, sowing is continuing in Australia.
Maize – In the southern hemisphere, harvest is continuing in Argentina under poor conditions while in South Africa under exceptional conditions. In the northern hemisphere, sowing continues under favourable conditions.
Rice – In India, harvesting of the Rabi crop is wrapping up. In Southeast Asia, harvesting of dry-season rice is almost completed in the northern countries while in Indonesia harvesting of wet-season rice enters the final stages.
Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, harvest is continuing in Argentina with poor yields. In the northern hemisphere, sowing is ongoing in the US, Canada, China, and Ukraine.
Forecasts at a Glance:
Climate Influences – There is around a 90% chance of El Niño conditions developing during June to September, and these odds remain high through December 2023 to February 2024 (>90% chance), according to the IRI/CPC forecast. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may also develop during June to October.
India – In June, below-average rainfall is expected over most parts of the country except in some areas of the south peninsular. The Southwest monsoon (June to September) rainfall as a whole is forecast to likely be average compared to the Long Period Average (1971-2020).
The United States – The short-term (two weeks) forecast indicates likely above-average precipitation across the western half of the country while a leaning to below-average over the Mid-West.
Crop Conditions:
In the EU, conditions are favourable to exceptional except for Spain due to a historic drought. In the UK, conditions are favourable. In Türkiye, conditions are favourable as crops enter the reproductive stage. In Ukraine, May was drier than average, however, the April rains were enough to maintain favourable conditions in most regions except in the south. The ongoing war continues to obstruct fieldwork and access to inputs in the east and south regions. In the Russian Federation, conditions are favourable for winter wheat and for the continued sowing of spring wheat. In China, harvesting of winter wheat is ongoing under favourable conditions as sowing of spring wheat wraps up. In the US, winter wheat in the central and southern Great Plains has suffered from prolonged drought, leading to reduced yields and higher-than-average abandonment levels. Sowing of spring wheat is continuing across the country. In Canada, winter wheat conditions are generally favourable while spring wheat sowing begins under drought conditions in Alberta and Saskatchewan. In Australia, sowing is continuing in the eastern states under mixed conditions due to low soil moisture levels.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
In Brazil, conditions are favourable with the majority of the summer-planted crop (larger season) is in the reproductive stage. In Argentina, harvest is continuing with significantly reduced yields for both the early-planted crop (typically larger season) and the late-planted crop (typically smaller season). The share destined for animal consumption has markedly increased due to the poor state of the crops. In South Africa, harvesting is wrapping up under exceptional conditions. In the US, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Mexico, harvesting of the Autumn-Winter crop (smaller season) is continuing while sowing for the Spring-Summer crop (larger season) begins. In Canada, sowing is beginning under favourable conditions. In China, conditions are favourable for the spring-planted crop and the sowing of the summer-planted crop. In the EU, sowing is nearing completion under generally favourable conditions, albeit with dry conditions in Spain and Portugal. In Ukraine, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions away from the war zones. In the Russian Federation, sowing is over halfway complete under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
In China, conditions are favourable as early-planted rice enters the reproductive stage and the sowing of single-season rice continues. In India, harvesting of the Rabi crop is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season rice is progressing under favourable conditions. Sowing of dry-season rice is continuing slowly as farmers wait for additional rainfall. In Viet Nam, conditions are favourable across the country for dry-season rice (Winter-Spring rice) as harvesting wraps up in the South. Sowing of wet-season (Summer-Autumn rice) is at the peak in the Mekong River Delta. In Thailand, harvesting of dry-season rice is nearing completion with good yields and an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In the Philippines, dry-season rice harvesting is wrapping up under favourable conditions. Sowing of wet-season rice is beginning under favourable conditions. In the US, sowing is wrapping up in the southern states while progressing in California under favourable conditions.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
In Argentina, harvesting is continuing for both the early-planted crop (larger season) and the late-planted crop (smaller season) with low yields across all regions. The poor crop conditions are a result of an early frost in mid-February along with water deficits and extreme heat throughout the season, which hit at critical moments of yield development. In the US, conditions are favourable as sowing progress is noticeably ahead of average across most of the country, except for in North Dakota and Minnesota. In Canada, sowing is beginning under generally favourable conditions, except in Saskatchewan due to dry soils. In China, sowing continues under favourable conditions. In Ukraine, sowing is progressing under favourable conditions away from the frontlines of the war.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
El Niño Watch
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral state. According to the IRI/CPC forecast, there is around a 90% chance of El Niño conditions developing during June to September, and these odds remain high through December 2023 to February 2024 (>90% chance). If this El Niño event develops, models predict that it will likely be a moderate or strong event.
El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa, and southern and eastern China. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, parts of western and northern East Africa, Southern Africa, India, Northern China, the Maritime Continent, and Australia.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may also develop during June to October, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Positive IOD conditions can enhance El Niño-related drying influences in Australia and the Maritime Continent, and wetting influences during the East Africa short rains.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to El Niño events. Based upon observed precipitation during 22 El Niño events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation
The two-week forecast (Figure 1) indicates a likelihood of above-average rainfall over the western US, Portugal, Spain, southern France, Italy, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Albania, North Macedonia, Greece, Türkiye, Georgia, Armenia, northern Morocco, northern Algeria, Liberia, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan, Gabon, northwestern Iran, central Mongolia, and the northern Philippines.
There is also a likelihood of below-average rainfall over the Prairies and Eastern Canada, western and southern Mexico, Guatemala, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, northern and central Brazil, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Netherlands, northern Germany, southern Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, northern Poland, Belarus, northwest and central Russian Federation, eastern South Sudan, central Ethiopia, Uganda, western Kenya, the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, southern Madagascar, western Kazakhstan, eastern Uzbekistan, western Tajikistan, northeastern Afghanistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh, eastern Mongolia, central and northeast China, the Republic of Korea, southern Japan, southern Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 3 – 16 June 2023, issued on 26 May 2023. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
India Outlook
In June, below-average rainfall is expected over most parts of the country except in some areas of the south peninsular, northwest, extreme north, and some isolated pockets of the northeast, where above-average rainfall is expected.
The Southwest monsoon (June to September) rainfall as a whole is forecast to likely be average (96%) compared to the Long Period Average (1971-2020), which is 87 cm. Average to above-average rainfall is likely over most areas of the south peninsular, some areas of east central, many areas of the northeast, and the extreme north. However, average to below-average rainfall is likely over many areas of northwest and adjoining west-central, northern parts of the peninsular, and along the foothills of the Himalayas.
Upper Left: Probability forecast of tercile categories (below normal, normal, and above normal) for the 2023 June rainfall over India. Upper Right: Probability forecast of tercile categories (below normal, normal, and above normal) for the seasonal rainfall over India during the 2023 southwest monsoon season (June -September). Lower Left: Current advancement of the Southwest Monsoon as of May 31st compared to the average.
Source: India Meteorological Department
United States Outlook
The 5 – 9 June 2023 outlook indicates there is likely above-average precipitation across the western half of the country, while a leaning to below-average precipitation over the Mid-West. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across the northern part of the country from the Pacific Northwest to the Mid-west, while likely below-average temperatures across the southern and eastern regions.
For the long-term seasonal June-July-August (JJA) 2023 outlook, there is a leaning toward below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and the Southwest, while leaning toward above-average precipitation across the eastern parts of the country. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the country except for the Mid-West and the northern Great Plains, where there are equal chances of above and below-average temperatures.
Upper Left: 6 – 10 precipitation outlook issued on 30 May 2023. Upper Right: 6 – 10 precipitation outlook issued on 30 May 2023. Lower Left: Extended June-July-August precipitation outlook issued on 18 May 2023. Lower Right: Extended May-June-July temperature outlook issued on 20 April 2023. Maps from NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, and Climate Prediction Center https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.