Crop Monitor for AMIS
No. 109: Published September 7th, 2023
Conditions as of August 28th
PDF Download linkFor previous reports visit the Archive.
Overview:
At the end of August, conditions are mixed for wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans. Wheat harvests in the northern hemisphere are facing mixed conditions due to drought in several areas, while the southern hemisphere is experiencing expanding dry conditions in Argentina and Australia. Exceptional maize yields are expected in Brazil, but Argentina is facing poor outputs due to persistent drought. Rice crops in China are affected by dry and hot conditions, crops in eastern India have recovered from rain delays, and conditions are mostly favorable in Southeast Asia. Soybean crops in the northern hemisphere are developing under mixed conditions, with some improvement in the west due to enhanced rains.
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of August 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.
Crop Conditions at a Glance:
Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter and spring wheat harvesting is wrapping up under mixed conditions with drought in several areas. In the southern hemisphere, there are expanding dry conditions in Argentina and Australia.
Maize – In the southern hemisphere, exceptional yields are expected in Brazil while poor outputs are expected in Argentina due to persistent drought. In the northern hemisphere, conditions remain mixed.
Rice – In China, dry and hot conditions expanded in the south and southwest. In India, Kharif crops have recovered from delayed rains in the east. In Southeast Asia, conditions are mostly favourable except in Thailand.
Soybeans – In the northern hemisphere, crops are developing under mixed conditions with some improvement in the west due to enhanced rains.
Forecasts at a Glance:
Climate Influences – El Niño is currently present, and models predict a strong intensity during October to January. Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may also develop during September to January.
El Niño Yield Impacts – El Niño events are estimated to affect crop yields on at least 25 percent of global croplands. The current El Niño event is expected to have significant impacts on regional precipitation and agricultural yield outcomes.
Argentina – Below-average rainfall is expected in the main producing Pampas region through mid-September, and warmer temperatures are forecast for the northern half of the country through November.
Australia – Wheat growing areas are expected to receive rainfall in the coming weeks while dry conditions and high temperatures are likely in many areas through November.
The United States – Likely below-average precipitation through early September in the Pacific Northwest and northern Midwest is expected to continue through November, and above-average temperatures are expected across much of the west and south.
Crop Conditions:
In the EU, harvest finalized under mixed conditions as persistent dryness impacted Lithuania and Latvia, and recent exceptionally wet conditions caused yield drops in Denmark and Sweden. In the UK, end of season conditions are favourable despite recent below-average temperatures and excessive rains. In Türkiye, harvesting finalized under exceptional conditions due to conducive spring weather. In Ukraine, end of season conditions are favourable for unoccupied territories. In the Russian Federation, winter harvesting is favourable. Persistent drought remains a concern for spring crops despite improved August rainfall. In China, spring crop harvesting is nearing completion with ongoing concern over the northwest and north-centre due to dry and hot weather. In the US, below-average winter yields are expected in the Dakotas, Nebraska, and the Pacific Northwest. Spring wheat conditions have been downgraded due to possible yield declines. In Canada, conditions remain mixed for winter and spring crops with ongoing summer drought concerns in the western Prairies expected to significantly hamper durum wheat production. In Australia, dry conditions are expanding into New South Wales while the south and southeast remain favourable. In Argentina, conditions are mixed with dryness in the centre and north.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
In Brazil, above-average summer-planted (larger season) crop yields are expected in the major producing central-west. In Argentina, drought and extreme heat significantly impacted the late-planted (usually smaller season) crop. In the US, conditions improved in parts of the Corn Belt with above-average yields possible in some eastern states while severe drought continues to impact parts of the interior. In Mexico, conditions have improved for the Spring-Summer (larger season) crop as Hurricane Hilary and tropical showers provided much-needed moisture relief. In Canada, conditions have been consistently advantageous in the main producing east. In China, harvesting of the spring-planted crop is nearing completion with concern in the northwest and southwest due to persistent dry and hot weather. Conditions are favourable for the summer-planted crop except in the southwest. In India, Kharif crops are developing with expanding dry conditions in all areas except in the north. In the EU, heatwaves and dry conditions impacted Romania and the Czech Republic, and water use restrictions may impact yields in Spain. In Ukraine, conditions in unoccupied regions are favourable despite a prolonged period of hot and dry weather that accelerated ripening. In the Russian Federation, conditions remain favourable.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
In China, harvesting of the single-season crop commenced while the late-season continues to develop with expanding dry and hot concerns in the south and southwest. In India, Kharif season crops recovered from delayed rainfall onset in the east while deficient rainfall is now impacting the centre. In Indonesia, planting of dry-season rice continues while harvesting of earlier planted crops is underway, and yields are near-normal despite less precipitation received during the growing season. In northern Viet Nam, planting and development of wet-season rice (both seasonal and summer-autumn) continues with adequate irrigation preparation. In the south, conditions are favourable for the wet-season crop (both summer-autumn and autumn-winter). In Thailand, wet-season yields are expected to decrease compared to last year due to ongoing drought and a high risk of damage from pests and disease. In the Philippines, conditions are favourable for the wet-season. In Japan, paddy development is supported by conducive hot and sunny weather, but some southern areas were impacted by seasonal rain and typhoon activity. In the US, conditions remain favourable.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
In the US, conditions have improved particularly in the eastern Corn Belt; however, good rainfall over the next month will be needed to preserve yields. In Argentina, harvest finalized under poor conditions due to persistent drought and extreme heat. In China, ample showers during July have improved soil moisture conditions in the main producing northeast region and in the North China Plain just in time for the critical reproductive stage. In India, sowing of the majority of the crop has been completed after initial delays. There is an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In Canada, conditions are favourable except in Saskatchewan due to drought. In Ukraine, conditions are favourable away from the frontlines of the war as the rains in July were enough to maintain soil moisture levels.
For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.
El Niño Advisory and Positive IOD Watch
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in the El Niño phase and forecast to reach a strong level of intensity during October to January (66% chance) and remain active until March to May (82% chance), according to the IRI/CPC forecast.
El Niño events tend to enhance precipitation in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, southern Europe, east and southern East Africa, and south and eastern China. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, parts of west and northern East Africa, Southern Africa, India, Northern China, the Maritime Continent, and Australia.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are forecast for September to January, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Sea surface temperatures began showing signs of positive IOD development in August. Positive IOD conditions typically enhance the drying influences of El Niño in Australia and the Maritime Continent, and substantially increase the chances of a wet and intense East Africa short rains season during El Niño events.
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to El Niño events. Based upon observed precipitation during 22 El Niño events since 1950, wet and dry correspond to a statistically significant increase in the frequency of precipitation in the upper and lower thirds of historical values, respectively. Statistical significance at the 95% level is based on the resampling of precipitation during neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation conditions. Source: FEWS NET & NOAA & CHC
El Niño 2023/2024 anticipated regional and global climate and agricultural yield impacts
- The ongoing El Niño will likely be a strong event that will reach peak strength from October to January.
- Wheat: Historically, the impact of El Niño events on wheat yields has been modest at the country scale. Average yield declines relative to expected yields are around 5% or less in India, China, Australia, southeastern South America, and parts of Europe and North Africa, although Morocco tends to experience yield deficits of up to 15%.
- Maize: Past El Niño events have led to deficit maize production in India, China, southeastern Africa, and parts of Central America and northern South America. The effects tend to be strongest in southeastern Africa where average deficits are around 10 to 15% relative to expected yields in Zimbabwe and South Africa, with some events resulting in deficits of over 50%.
- Rice: Past El Niño events have reduced rice yields in major production regions of South and Southeast Asia. The strongest impacts of El Niño events have been in India and Thailand, which were the world’s two leading rice exporters in 2022/2023. Average yield declines in India and Thailand during El Niño events have been 2 to 4% with declines of 5 to 10% possible.
- Soybean: El Niño events tend to improve soybean yields in both the United States and Argentina, while reducing yields in India. Yields tend to be around 3% and 8% above expected levels in the United States and Argentina, respectively, while they are around 9% below expected levels in India on average.
Following three consecutive years of La Niña, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in the El Niño phase. The ongoing El Niño is forecast to be a strong event, reaching its maximum intensity in late 2023 and persisting through early 2024. El Niño events are estimated to affect crop yields on at least 25 percent of global croplands. Characteristics of an El Niño, like its intensity, are related to the severity of the global climate impacts. The current forecast for a strong El Niño is expected to have significant impacts on regional precipitation patterns and agricultural yield outcomes at the regional and possibly global level.
While crop yield impacts vary from one El Niño event to another, average global-mean soybean yields generally improve during an El Niño event while global mean rice yields, and to a lesser extent wheat yields, slightly decrease. The ongoing El Niño has already affected seasonal precipitation in different parts of the globe, impacting ongoing cropping seasons notably in Central America, East Africa, India, and Southeast Asia. This El Niño also raises concerns for upcoming cropping seasons in some areas, including parts of Southern Africa, Southeast Asia, Central America, northern South America, Australia, and elsewhere.
For more information on El Niño impacts to ongoing and upcoming cropping seasons see the Crop Monitor August Special Alert.
Historical crop yield conditions during El Niño events for wheat, maize, rice, soybeans, and sorghum using FAO country level yield data and ERSSTv5 from 1961-2020. In countries with more than one crop affected, the color reflects the strongest effect. Source: Crop Monitor Special Report, August 2023
Global Two-week Forecast of Areas with Above or Below-Average Precipitation
The two-week forecast indicates a likelihood of above-average rainfall over central-eastern Mexico, southern Colombia, northwestern Brazil, southern Peru, southern Chile, southwestern Uruguay, northern Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, parts of the Sahel region in West Africa, Spain, southwestern France, eastern Ukraine, northeastern Kazakhstan, northern Mongolia, China, southern Pakistan, central India, Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, northeastern Cambodia, Viet Nam, the Philippines, and northeastern Australia.
There is also a likelihood of below-average rainfall over much of Canada, the United States, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil, central Chile, Argentina, the Gulf of Guinea in West Africa, northwestern and southeastern portions of Southern Africa, Madagascar, much of East Africa, Yemen, northern Europe, Turkey, Azerbaijan, northern Iran, Russia, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, southwestern Mongolia, southern Japan, eastern Afghanistan, northern Pakistan, south and northern India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, and much of Australia.
IRI SubX Precipitation Biweekly Probability Forecast for 1 – 16 September 2023. The forecast is based on statistically calibrated tercile category forecasts from three SubX models. Source: IRI Subseasonal Forecasts Maproom
Argentina Outlook
The 6 – 12 September precipitation forecast anomaly (left) indicates a likelihood of below-average rainfall over the main producing Pampas region in the east, particularly in Entre Rios, while above-average rainfall is expected in the northeast and central-west. During the same period, temperatures are likely to be above-normal along the northern coast and in Chubut and slightly below-normal in and around southern Santa Fe. The 13 – 19 September precipitation forecast anomaly (centre) shows a switch to below-average rainfall for the northeast, extending down into Cordoba, while above-average rainfall is expected to continue in the centre-west. During the same period, above-normal temperatures are expected in the northeast, and below-average temperatures are expected in the centre and south.
The long-term August-September-November 2023 forecast (right) indicates below-average precipitation over the northwest from northern San Juan to Jujuy and down into Cordoba, while above-average precipitation is expected in the northeast from Entre Rios to Misiones and in the central-west. During the same period, above-normal temperatures are expected in the northern half of the country, particularly in the northwest, and below-average temperatures are expected in the southern half.
Left: 6 – 12 September 2023 forecast precipitation anomaly in mm. Center 13 – 19 September 2023 forecast precipitation anomaly in mm. Images from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina. Right: September-October-November 2023 forecast rainfall anomaly. Image from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina.
Australia Outlook
The short-term 11 – 24 September rainfall forecast indicates that wheat-growing areas in Western Australia, South Australia, Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland are likely to receive rainfall. Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures are expected to be mostly above-average, particularly in Western Australia.
Australia rainfall outlook covering 11 – 24 September 2023, issued on 6 September 2023. Data from The Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Image from: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/
The long-term September-October-November outlook indicates a likelihood of below-average rainfall for most areas, particularly in the southwest, southeast, and northeast, with the exception of the northwest where precipitation is expected to be near to slightly above-average. During the same period, there are high chances of above-average temperatures throughout the country.
Chance of exceeding median rainfall for September – November 2023, issued on 31 August 2023. Data from The Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Image from: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/outlooks/
Source: Australia Bureau of Meteorology
United States Outlook
The 11 – 15 September outlook indicates a likelihood of below-average precipitation in the Pacific Northwest, in northern parts of the Midwest, and in the southern half of Florida. Above-average precipitation is expected across much of the east and interior, particularly in and around northern Texas and western Oklahoma. During the same time, temperatures are likely to be above-average across western areas, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, and along the south, particularly in New Mexico and Texas. Conversely, below-normal temperatures are expected for much of the interior and extending into the northeast, particularly in the Corn Belt region.
For the long-term seasonal September-October-November outlook, below-average rainfall is forecast to continue in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Lake States and will also impact eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. Above-average precipitation is expected in the Southeast. During the same period, above-normal temperatures are expected across much of the country, particularly in the Southwest and Northeast, and with the exception of parts of the interior and north where there are equal chances of above and below-average temperatures.
Upper Left: 6 – 10 day precipitation outlook issued on 5 September 2023. Upper Right: 6 – 10 day temperature outlook issued on 5 September 2023. Lower Left: Extended September-October-November precipitation outlook issued on 17 August 2023. Lower Right: Extended September-October-November temperature outlook issued on 17 August 2023. Maps from NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, and Climate Prediction Center https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center
Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.