2.0 AMIS Report

Crop Monitor for AMIS

No. 68: Conditions as of November 28th, 2019

PDF Download link

Overview:

As of the end of November, conditions are mixed for wheat, maize, and rice, while favourable for soybeans. In the Northern Hemisphere, spring wheat harvest is wrapping up while winter wheat is in early vegetative stage heading into dormancy. In the Southern hemisphere, wheat conditions remain mixed in Australia, Argentina, and South Africa. Maize harvest is wrapping up under mixed conditions in western Europe and the northern US. Meanwhile, the sowing of spring-crop maize is ongoing in South America. Rice in Asia is under mixed conditions with some adverse conditions across Southeast Asia. Soybean harvest is wrapping up under generally favourable conditions in the Northern Hemisphere and sowing in the Southern Hemisphere under favourable conditions.


Crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of November 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

 

Conditions at a Glance:

Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, spring wheat harvest wraps up in Canada under mixed conditions. Winter wheat conditions remain generally favourable except for a few areas. In the southern hemisphere, mixed conditions remain in Australia and Argentina.

Maize – In the northern hemisphere, harvest is wrapping up under mixed conditions particularly in North America and Europe, while under favourable conditions in Ukraine and the Russian Federation. In the southern hemisphere, sowing of the spring crop continues under favourable conditions in Argentina and Brazil.

Rice – In China, late-season rice harvest is finishing. In India, Kharif rice is harvesting while Rabi rice is sowing. In Southeast Asia, conditions are downgraded for wet-season rice across the northern region due to adverse weather conditions. In Indonesia, dry-season rice is harvesting under favourable conditions while the sowing of wet-season rice is behind schedule.

Soybeans – In the northern hemisphere, harvest is wrapping up under mixed conditions in Canada. In the southern hemisphere, sowing continues in Brazil and Argentina under favourable conditions.

Neutral ENSO & Positive IOD:

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are neutral and are most likely to remain neutral through June 2020. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a strong positive state and is forecast to remain positive through the rest of 2019, potentially into January 2020. A positive IOD tends to enhance rainfall in parts of East Africa and suppress rainfall in Australia.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center


Crop Conditions:



In the EU, sowing of winter wheat started under mixed conditions due to variable climate conditions. In Ukraine, winter wheat conditions have improved as very warm weather in November is facilitating crop development despite some areas of low soil moisture. In the Russian Federation, conditions are favourable for winter wheat entering dormancy with only spot areas of dryness in the south. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat conditions are favourable as the crop enters dormancy. In China, conditions are generally favourable for winter wheat in the early vegetative stage heading into winter. In the US, winter wheat is favourable across most of the country except for the southern Great Plains, which has been experiencing dryness this fall. In Canada, spring wheat is wrapping up under mixed conditions due to excessive moisture and delayed crop maturity, with some of the crop expected to remain on the field over winter. Winter wheat is under mixed conditions going into winter due to the late sowing caused by the delayed harvest of spring crops. In Australia, below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures in early spring, particularly in Western Australia and southern New South Wales, have significantly reduced yields. In Argentina, harvest is wrapping up in the northern region under generally favourable conditions. However, conditions are mixed for Buenos Aires and Entre Ríos, and poor for La Pampa and Cordoba due to prolonged dry conditions throughout the season.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.



In the US, harvest is still ongoing in the northerly regions of the country, with an expected decrease in production from those states due to both a reduction in harvested area and yields. In Canada, harvest is wrapping up under variable conditions due to a lack of heat during the season and a late start, particularly in Ontario, the main producing province. In Mexico, harvest of the spring-summer crop is continuing under generally favourable conditions, total sown area is reduced compared to the 5-year average. In India, sowing of Rabi maize is beginning under favourable conditions. In the EU, rainfall is hampering harvest in France and Germany in an already mixed condition season due to summer heatwaves. In Ukraine, harvest is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In the Russian Federation, harvest is finishing under favourable conditions with an increase in yields compared to last year. In Brazil, sowing continues for the spring-planted crop (smaller season) under favourable conditions. In Argentina, conditions are favourable as sowing of the spring-planted crop is boosted by recent rainfall.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.



In China, late-season rice harvest is finishing under favourable conditions with slightly higher yields compared to last year. In India, conditions are favourable as harvesting of Kharif rice has been completed in the northern states and is continuing in the southern and eastern states. Rabi rice sowing has begun in southern states under favourable conditions. In Indonesia, harvest of dry-season rice is wrapping up with yields slightly above last year’s, albeit with a noticeable reduction in harvested area relative to last year due to water shortages. Wet-season rice sowing is continuing at a delayed pace due to continuing water shortages. In Viet Nam, harvest of summer-autumn rice (wet-season rice) is ongoing under mixed conditions, as a mid-season drought in the north has reduced expected yields. In the south, wet-season rice yields are expected to be slightly higher than last year and sowing of dry-season rice has begun. In Thailand, wet-season rice conditions remain mixed nation-wide due to dry conditions at the beginning of the season followed by damage from heavy rainfall and flooding of fields in August and September. In the Philippines, yields of earlier sown wet-season rice are reduced due to the effects of moisture stress, while later sown crops are under favourable conditions having experienced normal rainfall levels. In Brazil, conditions are favourable, however sowing is delayed due to excessive rainfall.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.



In Canada, harvest is wrapping up under generally favourable conditions with the exception of areas in Manitoba, where below normal precipitation during the season reduced overall yields. In the prairies, wet conditions have led to high moisture content in most of the crop and inability to harvest some areas. In India, harvest is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Brazil, conditions are favourable despite the delay in sowing compared to last year. An increase in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In Argentina, sowing is beginning under generally favourable conditions, supported by recent rainfall.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.


Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.