2.0 AMIS Report

Crop Monitor for AMIS

No. 69: Published February 6th, 2020

Conditions as of January 28th

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For previous reports visit the Archive.

Overview:

As of the end of January, conditions are mixed for rice, while generally favourable for wheat, maize, and soybeans. In the Northern Hemisphere, winter wheat is in dormancy under generally favourable conditions with some winter kill vulnerability in Europe, southern Ukraine, and southern Russian Federation. In the Southern Hemisphere, maize is under generally favourable conditions across Brazil and Argentina for both spring and summer planted crops. Rice in Southeast Asia is under watch conditions due to dry conditions. In the Southern Hemisphere, soybean conditions are favourable.
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Crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of January 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

 

Conditions at a Glance:

Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, winter wheat conditions remain mixed particularly in parts of Europe, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine as an unusually dry and warm winter is leaving crops vulnerable to frost damage and drought in the spring.

Maize – In the southern hemisphere, the return of regular rains in January has improved conditions in Brazil and Argentina. In Mexico, conditions are favourable for both the spring-summer and autumn-winter crops. In India, conditions are favourable for the Rabi crop.

Rice – In India, transplanting of Rabi rice is continuing. In Southeast Asia, water shortages have led to mixed conditions for dry-season rice across Thailand and southern Viet Nam along with wet-season rice in Indonesia.

Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, conditions are improving in Brazil and Argentina due to the return of regular rainfall in January.

Neutral ENSO & IOD:

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are neutral and are most likely to remain neutral through June 2020. During late 2019 a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) suppressed rainfall in Australia and enhanced rainfall in East Africa. The IOD is now in a neutral state and is forecast to remain neutral through June 2020.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center


Crop Conditions:


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In the EU, winter wheat conditions are generally favourable, however, the unusually mild and locally dry winter has reduced the hardening of the crops in north-eastern Europe, placing them under watch conditions due to their vulnerability to frost damage. In Ukraine, winter wheat conditions are generally favourable, albeit with areas of low soil moisture particularly in the south due to a dry autumn and a deficit of precipitation during December and January. In the Russian Federation, conditions are generally favourable for winter wheat in dormancy, however little to no snow cover in the southern district places crops vulnerable to frost damage. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat conditions remain favourable during dormancy. In China, winter wheat conditions are favourable in dormancy. In India, conditions are favourable as winter wheat sowing has completed across most of the country with an increase in total sown area compared to last year. In the US, winter wheat is under generally favourable conditions while in dormancy. In Canada, winter wheat is in dormancy under favourable conditions with an increase in total sown area compared to last year.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.


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In Brazil, with the resumption of regular rains the spring-planted (smaller season) crop is under generally favourable conditions except in the south, where dry conditions in December impacted the crop during the critical reproductive stage. Sowing of the summer-planted (larger season) crop has begun in the main producing regions under favourable conditions. In Argentina, conditions have improved for both the spring-planted and summer-planted crops due to the resumption of rainfall. However, some areas of spring-planted crops have been stunted by the earlier cool dry conditions. In Mexico, conditions are favourable for the wrapping up of the spring-summer crop harvest and the sowing of the autumn-winter crop. In India, sowing of the Rabi crop is continuing under favourable conditions. In South Africa, conditions are generally favourable with widespread rains occurring during November through January.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.


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In India, transplanting of Rabi rice is continuing in the eastern parts of the country under favourable conditions with an increase in total sown area observed. In Indonesia, wet-season rice sowing is continuing for the fourth month, albeit with a reduction in total sown area due to continuing water shortages. Harvesting has begun with yields slightly lower than last year due to the drought. In Viet Nam, dry-season rice (winter-spring rice) is developing in the south under watch conditions because of an expected shortage of fresh water for irrigation due to saline intrusion. Sowing has not yet begun in the north. In Thailand, dry-season rice conditions are under watch due to the reduction of available water for irrigation, which is also expected to decrease the total sown area compared to last year. In the Philippines, conditions are generally favourable for dry-season rice in the vegetative stage. However, two typhoons in December brought some damage to central and southern parts of Luzon and parts of Visayas. In Brazil, conditions are favourable with high luminosity benefiting crops.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.


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In Brazil, conditions are favourable across the country as harvesting begins thanks to a return of regular rainfall in January, which is providing the crops with the chance to recover. An increase in total sown area is expected compared to last year. In Argentina, spring-planted and summer-planted crop conditions have improved due to the resumption of rainfall in January. Despite the recent rainfall, some areas of spring-planted crops were affected by the dry and low-temperature conditions while they were in the reproductive stage.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.


Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.