AMIS CM Report

Crop Monitor for AMIS

No. 74: Published July 2nd, 2020

Conditions as of June 28th

PDF Download link

For previous reports visit the Archive.

Overview:

As of the end of June, conditions are generally favourable for maize, rice, and soybeans while mixed for wheat. Conditions remain mixed for winter wheat in Argentina, the EU, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine. Spring wheat conditions are favourable. For maize, conditions are generally favourable except for dryness in parts of southern Brazil. Rice conditions are generally favourable except for in Indonesia due to earlier in season dry conditions that have delayed harvest of wet-season rice and sowing of dry-season rice. Soybean conditions are generally favourable as harvest wraps up in the southern hemisphere and the season progresses in the northern hemisphere.

Responsive image
Crop condition map synthesizing information for all four AMIS crops as of May 28th. Crop conditions over the main growing areas for wheat, maize, rice, and soybean are based on a combination of national and regional crop analyst inputs along with earth observation data. Crops that are in other than favourable conditions are displayed on the map with their crop symbol.

 

Crop Conditions at a Glance:

Wheat – In the northern hemisphere, conditions remain mixed in the EU, the Russian Federation, and Ukraine, while they are generally favourable in the US, Canada, China, and Kazakhstan. In the southern hemisphere, conditions are favourable in Australia while under watch in parts of Argentina.

Maize – In the southern hemisphere, harvest is wrapping up in Argentina and advancing in Brazil. In the northern hemisphere, conditions are generally favourable with recent improvements in Europe.

Rice – In China, harvest is beginning for early-season rice. In India, transplanting of Kharif rice is underway. In Southeast Asia, harvest wraps up for dry-season rice in the northern countries while wet season rice sowing is beginning. In Indonesia harvesting of wet-season crops continues while the sowing of dry-season rice continues to be delayed.

Soybeans – In the southern hemisphere, harvest is wrapping up in Argentina under generally favourable conditions. In the northern hemisphere, conditions are generally favourable.

 

Forecasts at a Glance:

Climate Influences – El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral with roughly equal chances of La Niña or ENSO-neutral during the autumn and winter 2020-21

United States – For July, warmer than average conditions are likely across most of the US. Above-average rainfall is likely in the Southeast and northern Great Plains while below-average rainfall is likely in the central and southern Great Plains.

Argentina – Below-normal rainfall is expected for the period June-August 2020 in the main wheat-producing area (provinces of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Entre Ríos and La Pampa).

India – For the July to September (JAS) season, rainfall is most likely to be normal, however the northeast region is likely to get less rainfall than the rest of India.

Southeast Asia – There is a likelihood of average to above-average rainfall over much of the region, including previously dry areas of Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and the Philippines.


Crop Conditions:

Responsive image

In the EU, conditions remain under watch as persistent dryness across north-western and central Europe along with parts of Romania and Bulgaria have reduced yield prospects. In the UK, winter wheat remains under watch conditions due to dryness. In Turkey, winter wheat conditions are under watch due to recent high temperatures that might have impacted yields. In Ukraine, winter wheat is under generally favourable conditions except for the south where dryness earlier in the season has reduced yield prospects. In the Russian Federation, winter wheat conditions are mixed going into harvest with dryness earlier in the season affecting the south while there are favourable to exceptional conditions further north in parts of the Central and Volga districts. Spring wheat sowing is complete under favourable conditions. In Kazakhstan, winter wheat conditions are favourable while spring wheat sowing has finished under generally favourable conditions. In China, harvest of winter wheat is wrapping up under favourable conditions. Spring wheat is under favourable conditions. In the US, winter wheat is beginning to harvest under generally favourable conditions despite some dryness in the southern Great Plains. Spring wheat conditions are favourable. In Canada, both winter and spring wheat are under favourable conditions across the country. In Argentina, conditions are mixed with favourable conditions in Buenos Aires and dry conditions elsewhere are slowing sowing. In Australia, conditions are generally favourable following close to average rainfall during June, however root zone soil moisture remains below average particularly in parts of Western Australia.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

Responsive image

In Brazil, harvest has begun for the summer-planted crop (larger season) under exceptional conditions in the Central-West and Southeast regions. However, conditions in the south are poor as a persistent lack of rain during the vegetative development phase, particularly in the state of Parana, has reduced expected yields. In Argentina, dry weather is facilitating the harvest of both the spring-planted and summer-planted crops under generally favourable conditions except for the provinces of San Luis and Entre Ríos where conditions are poor. In the US, conditions are favourable across the country. In Canada, conditions are generally favourable across the major growing areas except for some dryness in Quebec. In Mexico, conditions are favourable for both the harvest of the autumn-winter (smaller season) crop and the sowing of the spring-summer (larger season) crop. In the EU, conditions have largely improved owing to recent rainfall and are now favourable. In Ukraine, conditions are favourable due to improved soil moisture and temperatures. In the Russian Federation, conditions are favourable with adequate rainfall for crop growth. In China, conditions are favourable for both spring-planted and summer-planted maize with sown area expected close to the 5-year average.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

Responsive image

In China, harvesting of early-rice is beginning under favourable conditions with an increase in sown area compared to last year. Conditions are favourable for the continuing sowing of one-season rice and the beginning of sowing for late-rice. In India, transplanting of Kharif rice is starting in many states under favourable conditions. In Indonesia, harvesting of wet-season crops continues with yields estimated to be slightly lower than last year due to the prolonged drought. Sowing of dry-season crops continues albeit behind schedule due to the protracted wet-season crops. In Viet Nam, harvesting of dry-season (winter-spring) rice in the north is ongoing under favourable conditions with yields expected to be in line with those of last year. Wet-season (summer-autumn) rice in the south is under watch conditions due to drought. In Thailand, sowing of wet-season rice is ongoing under favourable conditions thanks to adequate rainfall since mid-May. In the Philippines, dry-season rice harvesting has wrapped up under generally favourable conditions with only a slight decrease in final yields compare to last year. Wet-season rice is under favourable conditions with tropical storm Butchoy bringing beneficial rain to Luzon. In the US, conditions are favourable.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

Responsive image

In Argentina, conditions are generally favourable as the harvest is almost complete for both the spring-planted and summer-planted crops thanks to recent dry weather. San Luis and Entre Ríos are finishing harvest under poor conditions due to dry conditions during the reproductive stages. In the US, conditions are generally favourable across the country. In Canada, conditions are favourable with only minor areas of frosts and dryness, particularly in Quebec. In China, sowing is wrapping up under favourable conditions. In Ukraine, conditions are favourable with good soil moisture and temperatures for crop development.

For detailed description of the pie chart please see box at the bottom of the page.

Global Precipitation Forecast

Responsive image
Multimodel mean subseasonal forecast of global rainfall anomaly for June 25 – July 24, 2020, showing areas of above or below-average rainfall. The image shows the average of five Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) forecasts ensemble as of June 25th. The anomaly is based on the 1999 to 2016 model average. Skill assessments of SubX can be accessed at the NMME SubX project. Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

The 30-day SubX forecast indicates a likelihood of above-average rainfall over the Canadian prairies, Panama, Western Colombia, southern Brazil, southwestern Ethiopia, eastern South Sudan, Uganda, western Kenya, northern western DRC, northcentral Kazakhstan, central Russia, parts of India, Bangladesh, south and east China, South Korea, North Korea, Japan, and most of Southeast Asia, while below-average rainfall is likely for western and southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, southern Chile, areas of western Africa, northern and west coast of India, southwestern China, coastal Myanmar, and the northern Philippines.

 

Climate Influences: Movement towards a La Niña-like climate

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, though in the past few weeks the equatorial eastern Pacific has cooled substantially, moving towards a La Niña-like climate. ENSO-neutral conditions are most likely (~60%) to remain during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2020, with roughly equal chances (~40-50%) of La Niña or ENSO-neutral during the autumn and winter 2020-21. Precipitation, however, tends to respond to east-west tropical sea surface temperature gradient, and the world can experience La Niña-like precipitation anomalies, even in the absence of a well-developed La Niña. At present, the equatorial west Pacific temperature is substantially above normal and the equatorial east Pacific temperature is below normal, and the climate forecast for October-November-December anticipates an intensification of this gradient. A La Niña-like tropical Pacific precipitation pattern is currently predicted with enhanced rainfall over Indonesia and the Philippines. The persistence of such conditions into the autumn and winter 2020-21 could bring dry conditions over parts of East Africa and southwest Asia.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

 

United States Climate Outlook

In July 2020 the temperature outlook is for likely warmer than average conditions across the central and southern Great Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Northeast and Southeast. Additionally, there is a chance of below-average temperatures in the Northwest. For precipitation, above-average precipitation is likely in the Delta, Southeast, the mid-Atlantic region, and the northern Great Plains. However, below-average precipitation is also likely in the central and southern Great Plains along with parts of the Great Lakes and the Northeast.

July 2020 Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Responsive imageThe official 30-day forecast for July 2020 as of 18 June 2020 from NOAA/National Weather Service, National Centers for Environmental Predictions, Climate Prediction Center.

For the longer July-August-September (JAS) 2020 period, temperatures are likely to be above-average across most of the US except for some areas within the central Mississippi Valley, where there are equal chances of below, near, and above-average temperatures. Below-average precipitation is likely for much of the Pacific Northwest along with the northwest and central west Great Plains. However, above-average precipitation is likely for the eastern Great Plains and delta region continuing eastward to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast regions.

Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center

 

Argentina Short/Medium-term Forecasts

According to the latest Quarterly Climate Report published by the National Meteorological Service, below-normal rainfall is expected for the period June-August 2020 in the main wheat-producing area (provinces of Buenos Aires, Córdoba, Entre Ríos and La Pampa) and normal values for the north of the country. Temperatures would be normal for the period considered or slightly higher.

More specifically, and considering the normal ranges for each region, in the provinces of Buenos Aires and Entre Ríos there is up to a 50% probability of receiving between 100 and 150 mm of rain. With similar chances, the provinces of Santa Fe, Chaco, East of Córdoba and La Pampa would receive between 50 and 100 mm. Finally, for the northwestern provinces and western of Córdoba, an estimated 45% chance of receiving between 50 and 100 mm in the June-August 2020 period is estimated.

Responsive image

For the next seven days (07/02/20 to 07/08/20), forecast maintains a pattern of rains of low-intensity rains in the provinces of La Pampa, Buenos Aires, Entre Ríos. On the other hand, the forecast reflects a normal situation during the beginning of winter in Argentina and that is why there are no anomalies concerning the forecast of rains for the period described.

Responsive image
Source: Argentina National Meteorological Service.

 

Climate Outlook for Southwest monsoon season over India

The seasonal forecast issued by India Meteorological Department suggests that rainfall over India for July to September (JAS) season is most likely to be normal. The forecast for homogeneous regions indicates that the seasonal rainfall is likely to be normal for all four regions namely Northwest India, Central India, South Peninsula, and Northeast India. However, Northeast India is likely to get less rainfall as compared to other regions. The monthly rainfall over the Indian region is likely to be normal during July and August months, however July is likely to get more rainfall than August.

The observed rainfall for the period 1st June to 30th June was well above-average over most parts of central Indian and was below-average over some parts over North India as shown in figure 1 (left). The experimental Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast for July to September 2020 for Indian (figure 1-right) suggests that relatively high probability for above-average rainfall is likely over some areas of Northwest Indian and some areas of Peninsular Indian. Below-average rainfall is likely over some areas over Northeast India.
Responsive image

Figure 1: Rainfall Observed 1st to 30th June 2020 over the Indian region expressed in departure from LPA (period 1961 to 2010) (left) and Three-month experimental MME forecast for July to September 2020 based on June initial conditions. The forecast probability is calculated as the percentage of 7 climate models (NCEP CFSv2, GFDL FLORa04, GFDL FLORa06, GFDL FLORb01, NASA GOES05, ECMWF, and JMA) average ensemble members that fall in a given tercile (above/below/normal).

Source: India Meteorological Department

 

Southeast Asia Current Seasonal Conditions plus 30-day Forecasts

Rainfall in late May and early to mid-June was well below average across much of northern Southeast Asia, with the exception of central Thailand, western Cambodia, and southwest Vietnam where rainfall improved in June. Overall, the December to May season recorded less than 80% of the historical average in Myanmar, Thailand, southern Cambodia, southern Vietnam, northern Malaysia, and the Philippines impacting dry-season rice crops. In contrast, above-average rainfall since April in the southern half of the region (particularly across Indonesia and the southern Philippines) provided favorable conditions for the start of dry-season planting.

Responsive image

The spatial distribution of below-average rainfall in the north, and above-average rainfall in the south, is expected to continue for the next two weeks, contributing to the April-to-present seasonal rainfall anomalies seen in Figure 1-left. Rainfall totals are expected to be 120-150% of average across Indonesia, and less than 80% of average in Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, and the northern Philippines. However, the 30-day forecast indicates a likelihood of average to above-average rainfall over much of the region, including previously dry areas of Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and the Philippines, with the exception of in Myanmar, where rainfall deficits are expected to worsen (Figure 1-right).

Figure 1. Estimated and forecast rainfall since April 1st and a 30-day forecast. The left panel is the UCSB Climate Hazards Center Early Estimate extended seasonal outlook. It shows how the post-April 1st anomaly will change if the 15-day unbiased GEFS forecast from June 21st materializes. It compares 2020 rainfall amounts to the 1981-2019 CHIRPS average. The right panel is a 30-day forecast from June 25th. The image shows the average of five Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) forecasts ensemble as of June 25th. The anomaly is based on the 1999 to 2016 model average. Skill assessments of SubX can be accessed at http://cola.gmu.edu/kpegion/subx/index.html.

Source: UCSB Climate Hazards Center

 


Pie chart description: Each slice represents a country’s share of total AMIS production (5-year average). Main producing countries (representing 95 percent of production) are shown individually, with the remaining 5 percent grouped into the “Other AMIS Countries” category. The proportion within each national slice is coloured according to the crop conditions within a specific growing area; grey indicates that the respective area is out of season. Sections within each slide are weighted by the sub-national production statistics (5-year average) of the respective country. The section within each national slice also accounts for multiple cropping seasons (i.e. spring and winter wheat). When conditions are other than’ favourable’, icons are added that provide information on the key climatic drivers affecting conditions.